I think the Cubs will throw Zambrano a ton of cash over the next 6 months… hew on’t even get to free agency.

And no, I don’t think the M’s would play 15-20 a year for an ace, because Johan Santana isn’t coming here and he’s the only one worthy of such cash.

Felix is the closest thing to an ace the M’s will have in the near future, and that might be good enough.

I didn’t understand it when I first read your response so I decided to give it a day and reread it. I will paraphrase the points I believe you to be making, please explain.

You start out saying that FA is not the route for the M’s to fill thier needs.
Trading would be safer and more productive…
We don’t have enough to trade…
FA is the only way the M’s (is it have, can or will?) sign a FA
So it’s either FA’s or middle tier FA’s?

I’d rather see everything the team needs coming from the Minor league affiliates…that doesn’t pertain to the question though. I asked about the possible availability of 2 players presently signed through 2007. I never mentioned trading for anyone but Jennings. You brought up the point of trade to answer my question about free agancy and then disputed your own point rather than answering what I did ask.

My questions had to do with pitching not Dunn, Ramirez or Burrell. I did talk about potential FA LH power signed through 2007 so Dunn has room for argument here, but I was not talking about acquiring a bat this year or via trade.

Jason, what do you think the chances are that Zambrano will test FA? Carpenter? Do you think the M’s would pay $15-20 million a year for an Ace? That was mostly what I was asking about…

I was thinking that maybe you were saying that alot of FA’s don’t want to play here for the reasons we’ve all heard, but that doesn’t seem to be your point. Maybe the M’s will never pay for a top $$$ FA but you didn’t say that either. Your posts are usually well thought out, informative and easy to read, but you lost me this time.

That is one of the worst arguments I have ever heard on this blog.

Both of the stats you are focusing on are heavily influenced by forces outside the players control.

Trent is right. Those are both team stats. Those are the last numbers that you should be considering when evaluating a player.

How can you make a decision about whether a player is a good addition to your team if a large part of the basis of your evaluation is outside that players control?

And as I said in the other thread, with $14 million to spend, you better believe I could find another way to create 100 runs.

Forget batting average. For those uncable of understanding ALL stats….there are only TWO that matter, in regard to hitting…..RUNS SCORED…..and …..RUNS DRIVEN IN. Who gives a flying fark what Sexson’s average is? That’s not his job, that’s Ichiro’s. His job is to drive in runs, PERIOD…..not to be able to get a base hit, with two down.

Let’s make this clear…..RUNS BATTED IN. You bring up that stat, but fail to mention the fact that, sans his injury shorten season, he consistantly drives in over 100 runs a game. I don’t care if he gets his hits…..but more about WHEN he gets them.

Bury your head in stats, be my guest. But, IMHO, walks, strikeouts, et al make ZERO difference, in regard to his job. He’s here to drive in runs…..How do you replace the lost runs driven in?

I know I’d feel so much better to have a .280 hitter, who’s lucky to drive in 80 runs, just because it looks good on paper.

Some of you see hitters so one dimentionally, it’s amazing. Shove OPS where the sun don’t shine. If it’s not scoring or driving in runs, it’s worthless.

And, you know, that might be the best approach this year.

The trade market is a much safer, more productive avenue for the current Mariners to get better, than the free agent classes over the next two years.

The problem is, the Mariners have so little to trade that even the high-salaried players that are available because their clubs want to unload their contracts, aren’t likely to end up in Seattle. Philly isn’t going to give Pat Burrell away, for example, even though the biggest reason they want to trade him is so they can use his salary more effectively elsewhere.

But they are asking SF for Sanchez, Martinez-Esteve and Noah Lowry for Burrell, without any cash exchanging hands. Now, sure, they are aiming high, but the M’s can’t even get to half that package without looking toward guys like Betancourt, Lopez, Soriano.

The Mariners can’t think so big, unfortunately, because the only way they land a big name is via free agency.

Ramirez is NOT coming here, Adam Dunn is not coming here, and Burrell is not coming here.

Same goes for the arms. It’s either free agency, or think medium, and that’s dangerous route.

My thought is that there’s a possibility that Zambrano and Carpenter become FAs next year and represent something this team’s been missing essentially since Randy was traded. I don’t think it’s a good idea to tie your hands this offseason from the possibility of signing one of them next year. I’m not saying to wait, just not to spend next years budget so much so that if either do become available you can’t go hard after the teams most specific need of the last decade.

As well there are a few LH power hitters that are signed through 2007 and 2008. If all of them come through there will be close to 10 each of Aces and LH power hitters between the 2 years. Those are the 2 most specific needs talked about every year. Ace and LH power. If you see 2 FA classes like this on the horizon, it’s my opinion that you haveto prepare for the possibility of getting involved and filling those needs long term.