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Ten Reasons Why the M’s Will Win the West

Posted by Jason A. Churchill on June 20, 2006

There are literally dozens (maybe) of Seattle Mariners fans that actually understand the game of baseball enough to appreciate the daily grind that is being a fan, player, coach, manager or front office personnel.

But they're all in it for the same thing – to win. Though I will not include every member of the M's upper management, those in the personnel department want two things from baseball… a high-paying job and to win.

The recent streak put together by the hometown nine have many excited for the possibilities, and while the skeptics continue to be, well, skeptical, there is reason to feel pretty good about the 2006 baseball season.

There are, however, just as many reasons to be pessimistic, but for now, let's be positive.

The 10 reasons why the Mariners will win the American League West —

10. The winning is not a fluke.

The recent streak of wins came against bad teams, yes, but not versus bad pitching staffs, save the Kansas City Royals. The offense has pushed runs across the plate against the Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants. Minus the Oakland series, the M's have scored 81 runs in their past 13 games, 11 of them wins.

The Twins rank seventh in the AL in ERA at 4.62 but are second in the league since Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser joined the rotation with a 4.04 mark. The Mariners faced both Bonser and Liriano, as well Cy Young favorite Johan Santana in the three-game set at Safeco June 6-8, and still scored 17 runs.

The club then plated 22 runs versus the Anaheim Angels, who currently rank third in the AL in ERA at 4.26. Furthermore, the M's beat Kelvim Escobar (4R, 7H in 8IP) and John Lackey (8R, 9H, 4.2IP), who both rank in the top 15 in the league in ERA at 3.46 and 3.54.

The M's then were swept in Oakland – again – but did manage to score 10 runs anyways.

Scoring 18 runs in three games at Safeco against any club is an accomplishment , but lighting up Noah Lowry (5R, 8H, 3IP), Jason Schmidt (6R, 9H, 6.1IP) and Jamey Wright (4R, 8H, 6.2 IP) is something in which to take note.

In June, the M's rank second in the AL with an .819 OPS, first with a .478 slugging percentage, second with a .285 batting average, sixth with 22 home runs (NYY leads with 25), fourth with 32 doubles, and third in runs per game at 5.6.

Point is, this club has been hitting and scoring runs, and they've done it versus good pitching. And when the season began, the offense was the biggest of a lot of major question marks.

9. Felix Hernandez is heating up with the weather.

He has won four starts in a row (2.74 ERA), and has been really good in three of them. Hernandez could be the difference between a good Seattle Mariners club and a mediocre pretender lucking out in a bad division.

Jamie Moyer is still doing his thing, remarkably, and Gil Meche has given the club some quality outings, even more remarkably, so Felix doesn't have to carry the team… but he might.

8. J.J. Putz and Rafael Soriano are great relievers — and that is a fact.

Combined, the two have posted an 86-17 K/BB ratio and a 2.33 ERA. If Mike Hargrove can figure out a way to avoid overusing them, not an easy task, the two right-handers may carry the M's bullpen out of mediocrity.

Putz is among the best eight closer's in baseball right now, and if given the chance, Soriano might be, too. Nobody is hitting these guys and they aren't walking anyone, either.

Soriano's SLGA is just .354 and Putz's sits at an incredible .260. Putz hasn't walked a batter since May 13 (14.1 IP) and Soriano has walked just one since May 28.

No other club in the division has two relief options like this… Not Otsuka/Cordero, not Calero/Street… and not even Shields/Rodriguez this year.

In fine fashion, all games involving the Seattle Mariners are six innings affairs. Soriano and Putz share two+ innings while George Sherrill, who has allowed just three hits in 35 ABs to lefties (.086), takes care of the tough southpaw sticks.

And then, in the wise words of Ferris Bueller, it's over, people. Go home.

7. Ichiro Suzuki is a hit machine.

No explanation necessary, unless you've been hiding in Canada dodging the draft since 2001

6. Dave Cameron has a secret power that he can use only once, and he has assured me that he will abuse his powers on the 2006 Seattle Mariners.

Apparently, he's a big-time geek like the rest of us and would use such power on his favorite baseball team.

Oh, wait, we already knew that.

5. The M's are winning home games.

Seattle has won 15 of their last 20 home games after an insanely horrible 6-13 start. If they can manage to hover around .475 on the road, the club has a shot to win 85 games – maybe more.

4. Yuniesky Betancourt is not making a lot of outs.

That's right, YuBet is hitting .297 and while he's not drawing walks or hitting for power, that isn't his game, swinging away and striking the ball consistently is.

He is slugging .427, which is a .438 mark in park-adjusted environments and he's hitting .352/.386/.537 in June – a mighty impressive .185 IsoP.

Betancourt currently ranks 5th in the AL among shortstops in average and sixth in slugging. How's that for a no-hit all-field 24-year-old gold glove shortstop?

This sure beats the days of Wilson Valdez, doesn't it?

3. While Kenji Johjima is struggling at the plate, he's getting his learn on.

Johjima's catching ERA in April was 5.34 and it didn't get any better in May (5.37). But the first-year backstop has posted a CERA of 4.24 since May 23 and it sits at 3.95 in June.

One can't put too much stock into the CERA statistic, because ultimately, it's up to the pitcher not the catcher, but the M's starters must get comfortable with Johjima and it appears that is happening.

This may be the biggest key to the starting rotation and if Johjima can work well with the staff the rotation may be a lot more consistent than it has been the first two months of the year.

2. Richie Sexson is going to hit – for damage.

He may not end the year at .265 or so, like he typically does, but you can bet that Sexson will do some major damage. He's already begun a nice streak since the end of May and as long as he gets the opportunities, he will drive in runs consistently. It's the only way he knows how to hit – productively.

Since the start of June, Sexson has hit five homers and driven in 15 runs. He's also limited his strikeouts to 14 to go with eight walks and is slugging .475. It's a start, and though he's hitting just .205 on the year, it's his run production that is most important to the M's.

1. Adrian Beltre is hitting the baseball.

In his career, Beltre's best months have been July, August and September, with June a close fourth. Without question, his worst month has always been May, with April a close second.

And this isn't just a National League thing clouding his numbers. Last season, in which Beltre's season totals of .255/.303/.413 reflected that of a No. 9-hole hitter more than those a middle-of-the-order hitter, he slugged .444 in June after .361 and .353 marks to start the season.

In July of 2005, he hit just .245 but posted a .472 slugging percentage and followed that up with the best month of the season in August. where he hit .288/.342/.538 with six homers.

Well, it's June and Beltre is hitting again.

After a treacherous April (.189/.284/.233), Beltre hit .264/.302/.355 in May but is posting more than acceptable numbers this month.

Will .261/.311/.493 with four home runs, 11 RBI and just 12 strikeouts in 69 ABs keep you happy?

Beltre has raised his average 31 points this month and his slugging percentage has risen 50 points. He's hit safely in all but four games since May 19 and has seven multi-hit efforts – including 14 extra-base hits.

If Beltre can duplicate June, or mirror his June-July-August performance of 2005 (.282/.343/.477, 13 homers, 19 doubles), the M's offense will be fully capable of scoring enough runs to compete in a struggling, but surging division.

There are other reasons why this team isn't a bad baseball team and may win the division, such as Jose Lopez, Raul Ibanez and Jamie Moyer, but even Lopez isn't surprising people anymore, and Raul and Jamie are steady veterans.

Tomorrow: Ten Reasons Why the M's Will Not Win the West

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82 Responses to “Ten Reasons Why the M’s Will Win the West”

  1. DIQ said

    Great piece JAC.

    In my heart I just know Beltre and Sexson will no longer struggle like the months of April and May.

    Looking forward to tomorrow’s entry, but I’m sure we can all think of more than ten reasons.

  2. Personally, I think there are only six.

    The other three teams in the division, particularly the A’s, Mike Hargrove, Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong.

  3. DIQ said

    Yea I guess if you don’t get into the specifics there are mainly only six.

    Here’s a Q, when will the latter of the six problems be fixed or improved.

  4. Probably not in our lifetime… lol.

    With Armstrong, who knows, he’s not getting any younger.

    With the A’s… as soon as the M’s have a better team…

    Hargrove? After the next terrible 20-game stretch.

    Lincoln? When Paul Allen buys the club.

  5. DIQ said

    It doesn’t have to be Allen, but boy I wish we had an owner who cared, wanted to win, and wouldn’t interfere in baseball decisions.

    That’s just asking too much though, isn’t it?

  6. 6. Dave Cameron has a secret power that he can use only once, and he has assured me that he will abuse his powers on the 2006 Seattle Mariners.

    Apparently, he’s a big-time geek like the rest of us and would use such power on his favorite baseball team.

    Oh, wait, we already knew that.

    It’s either that, or make Jessica Alba fall in love with me. They’re neck and neck.

  7. The good of the many Dave, the good of the many

    Its always a good read when one writes a peice that runs counter to their own beliefs.

    So who read today’s Hardball Times Injury Report?

  8. Knuckles said

    Umm, Dave? If you can only use this power once, do the right thing and make Ms. Alba fall in love with you.

  9. mundeazy said

    good read

    quick question in that daisuke matsuzuka video…is the last out former mariner andy sheets?

  10. eknpdx said

    Jason, when you do the “10 or 6 reasons against,” will there be something about the farms ability for contribution? By saying “ability,” I also mean the willingness(or lack there of)to use the farm talent, in addition to the “talent level” of the farm.

  11. StandinPat said

    Wait… the basis of your write up wasnt that Beltre was gonna take us to the pennant on the strength of a 30 HR second half? You should have made that clearer Jason.

  12. StandinPat said

    Manyoso the point you seem to be missing is that Jason’s article was about reasons why the M’s could turn it around, not necessarily why they will. Beltre has hsitorically hit better over the second half of the year, and thats a fact. Its not arguable. Also not arguable is that if Beltre continues this career trend it we be beneficial to the M’s, and increase their chances of being competetive in the West. Basically the point is that Beltre’s potential improvement at the plate is one of ten things that could contribute to the M’s being a better team in the second half. And guess what thats not really an opinion so much as it is just obvious fact. If you can show jsut cause as to why Beltre doing better wouldnt improve the M’s please by all means proceed.

  13. Manyoso, your mom is calling you.

  14. Re: Pat… LOL. Good point.

    Funny thing about all this is that even though Beltre probably will do “okay” in July and August and Sexson probably will be “closer” to his 2005 form than he has been thus far, it’s not going to be enough in my opinion.

    Sexson would need to slug .600 and Beltre .500 – with consistency – for the M’s to have a shot. Plus, there are issues with the rotation and the bullpen, as well as defense in left field and the lack of quality bench options.

    But we’ll get to that in 12 hours.

  15. Re: Andy Sheets…

    Yes, it is the same Sheets that was a big M’s prospect a while back.

  16. jp17 said

    JAC

    Jason Johnson was DFAed…what do you think about him?

    Worth making a move for?

    He’s been getting lit up, but a 2.85 G/F? Man.

  17. A year ago I’d say yes, but he has been so terrible this year. Getting ground ball outs, yes, but he’s serving up bombs – 10 in 77 innings…

    If he wasn’t already 32 years old, I’d say jump on him… and if the M’s were smart they’d throw Joel in the pen after tonight and ink Johnson to give him a shot.

    Can’t hurt and it wouldn’t cost much…

    Cleveland has 10 days to trade or release Johnson. His contract comes with him if he’s traded or claimed (if they send him thru waivers).

  18. StandinPat said

    I really hope the M’s dont get optimistic about this current streak to the point that they wind up holding onto all their tradeable pieces because we are in the race. I firmly believe guys like Piniero, Everett, Mateo, Guardado and even Meche could be replaced by internal options with anywhere from just a slight drop off, to prob a slight increase in production.

  19. jp17 said

    If the M’s were interested right now….what do you think it would take to get him?

    Also, do you think that pitching in Safeco with a good infield behind him would help at all?

    Even if it doesn’t involve touching our current rotation, he could add some much needed depth.

    When our options for a sixth starter are Woods?/Nagoette/Cruceta I tend to get worried. I don’t think he would be blocking anyone, he’s fairly cheap, and I don’t see us adding any quality pitching via trade.

  20. Willmore said

    Meche is not encouraging. This is a contract year for him, and if he keeps up, he’ll get his 30 mil. And if the Mariners are smart, they’ll move him at the deadline for top prospects to a pithing-desperate team.

    Guardado isn’t worth much, but I would prefer a younger ‘pen without him.

    Everett can get you a decent prospect by a team that might believe he has the clutch to perform in the off-season.

    Pineiro is not worth much and will be worth almost nothing at the deadline, still, if packaged with someone else, he might increase the value in return. A #5 starter and reliever in the postseason isn’t completely value-less. Besides, there are enough GMs and pitching coaches out there who might think that a former future top pitcher might just need a change of scenery and the 2nd half is a prime audition for Pineiro.

    I will proclaim Bavasi a genius if he gets good value for all the above. Bavasi’s deadline last year was pretty good, not genius, because he couldn’t move Guardado for value, but good. Still, there is room for improvement.

  21. eponymous coward said

    Armstrong and Lincoln couldn’t stop the 2000 or 2001 teams from making the playoffs, so I’m not seeing why they are a burden…unless Bavasi is letting them be one.

    -shrug-

    Hargrove’s kinda useless, but then again, his Cleveland teams made the playoffs. If I wrote a list of teams that made the playoffs despite questionable managers, it’d be a pretty long list.

  22. eponymous coward said

    I firmly believe guys like Piniero, Everett, Mateo, Guardado and even Meche could be replaced by internal options with anywhere from just a slight drop off, to prob a slight increase in production.

    You’re expecting Tacoma to fill up 20% of the roster? Uh, no.

    Mateo, sure. Everett, no problem. Guardado…uh, OK, but it leaves you with one lefty. But Piñeiro AND Meche? The AAA/AA pitching isn’t that good.

    My feeling is if I had to make moves internally, I’d swap in Snelling for Everett and Cruceta for Piñeiro, maybe an arm for Guardado- but that’s it, and it doesn’t leave much of a margin for error if you lose a starting P to injury (like, say, Washburn).

    There’s a whole thread at USSM about this, but it’s too damn early to kiss off 2006 for 2007.

  23. jp17 said

    Everett, Mateo, and Guardado can all be moved.

    We better have a backup plan if you are talking about any starting pitcher because there isn’t much down below.

    coughjasoncoughjohnsoncough

  24. StandinPat said

    #22 My point was that we could find an adequate replacement at Tacoma for any individual on that list, not necessarily that we should trade them all away with the hopes of using all AAA’s to fill their shoes. But if need be, bring up Snelling, Cruceta, Livingston, Green, and Nageotte. By the by you would still have two lefties in the bullpen, we currently have three. Im not advocating swappin all these guys out for minor leaguers necessarily, just noting that each one of these fellows has a replacement in Tacoma and that we shouldnt hesitate to pull the trigger if something good comes along on any one of these players.

  25. KB said

    What’s the deal with Clement in AAA?? Bizarre. I guess Quiroz is going to get the short end of the stick…

  26. Rob Johnson and Quiroz are both on the inactive list right now.

    Not sure what is going to be the move but I do know Johnson had family issues recently and that could have something to do with his inactive status righ now.

  27. jp17 said

    Hell yeah!!!!

    Clement, Jones, Snelling, and Cabrera on the field at the same time?

    It’s not worth the drive north to see the M’s when I can stay home and watch these guys play.

    Jason, do you expect Clement to be in the lineup everyday and possibly Wednesday?

  28. yes.

  29. willmore2000 said

    I wonder how he handles the challenge defensively, and is this going to cost our AAA pitching prospects ?

  30. Goose said

    Clement promoted to AAA? Already?

    Awesome!

    I am so making a trip to Tacoma in the next week or so.

  31. More moves are coming, though it will probably involve IE-SA more than anything.

  32. DIQ said

    Great news on Clement. Even if it’s not permanent I wanna head down there and see him play.

  33. johnb said

    Nice write up Jason…I thought you were holding of till July 30th…lol…well looks like we are into the bullpen now, and we should be only two games under .500 after tonights game, and 3.5 back of the A’s, and Rangers.

    Beltre and Sexson both hit well tonight, and on the rare occasions that they are hot together it is fun to watch.

  34. Oly Rainiers Fan said

    Om, cool news about Clement but…Wednesday is the start of a 5 game homestand versus Portland, not a 4 day series against Vegas…

  35. Swerv said

    Jason,
    Is there a way to tell for sure if Clement will start wed? If so I will drive up with my two girls to take the game in.

    Also, I posted this on a different thread on accident…but what is weird you can only view the first 51 posts of that thread…hope that makes sense.

    Swerv

  36. Swerv said

    Nevermind I can view the other thread now….must have been my computer.

  37. Swerv… I get to the park very early and see the lineups 3 hours before game time… that’s the best I can do.

    I’ll post the lineups here at PI.com once i get them… cool?

  38. Swerv said

    that would be perfect
    thank you!!!

  39. So. It’s now tomorrow. Where’s the goods?

    😉

    Just ribbin’ ya, Church! Whats up with Little G on the DL? Did I miss something?

    Thanks, man! You still ROCK!

  40. KB said

    Balentien wins the HR contest…

    AA HRs

  41. Willmore said

    Surprise, Surprise. Still, they couldn’t hit a single homer in 5 outs, and Balentien hit just 2 in the first round.

    That’s some weak home run contest.

  42. StandinPat said

    …..And Beltre goes deep, and Sexson drives in runs when we need them, almost prophetic isnt it? By the way, where’d Manyoso go?

  43. JasonAChurchill said

    I’ll finish the 10 reason WHY NOT when i get to the ballpark… and after I post the Rainiers lineup for Swerv!

  44. Oh, and Paul… yer a bastard!

  45. Jerry said

    I think that Dave at USSM and Jason bring up some good points concerning the M’s spot in the playoff race, and likelihood that they can improve enough to contend.

    I must admit that I have been very pessimistic about the M’s shot at the playoffs this season. The M’s are now only 3.5 games back in the West, and they have a bunch of games lined up against pretty weak clubs in the NL west for the rest of the month and well into July. Then, we play a series against LAA (which has been a good thing thus far). We don’t really face any real tough competition until just before the AS break, when we play the Tigers. That gets us very close to the trade deadline.

    Interestingly, we face a bunch of tough AL East teams in the few weeks leading up to the deadline.

    This is all pretty significant because it will play a huge role in what the M’s decide to do at the trade deadline. I don’t see them going into fire-sale mode, because we don’t really have that many big-salary players that they would be likely to move.

    The only real exceptions to this that I can see are Meche and perhaps Ibanez, although I don’t think that the M’s are likely to shop the latter regardless. I would think that the M’s would be looking to move guys like Guardado, Everett, Mateo, and Pineiro (who has no value). However, you never really know what the front office might be thinking. They could decide to hold on to almost everyone in order to keep the clubhouse chemistry intact.

    At this point, it looks like the M’s might end up waiting until just before the deadline to see where they are at. I wouldn’t even discount the possibility that they could look to add players at the deadline for a run at the playoffs.

    This is where things get really sketchy in my opinion. I still see the M’s as a rebuidling team. That rebuild is going really well right now, and the roster seems to be clicking. With some pretty realistic improvements from key guys, and a few major additions via trade or free agency, this club could be really good as early as next year.

    I would hate to see the M’s fail to make moves that would help their chances in 2007 for an ill-advised playoff run this year. This could include not taking decent offers for guys like Guardado, Meche, Pineiro or Everett, all of whom don’t fit into the long-term picture. Even worse, I would really hate to see bad trades to make a run this year. The moves the Mets made a few years ago at the deadline are particularly scary.

    It will be really interesting to see how this all plays out between now and the All Star break. The M’s are suddenly fun to watch, which is awesome. Regardless of whether the M’s have it in them to catch the surging A’s, this year should be positive in hindsight. But this next month will be particularly important in determining the direction that the team goes in.

  46. Willmore said

    If Gil Meche get his ERA under 4.00 by the deadline, will the Mariners still trade him ? If so, can we expect a killer package fo him, or is he not creating enough buzz just yet ? Boy, would I love to rob the farm system of some teams, if they get in a bidding war at the deadline. I salivate just thinking about it.

  47. Salty Dog said

    Given the talk from Bavasi about how ownership understands the need to rebuild, I think it’s doubtful we’ll be actively shopping prospects for veterans.

  48. Swerv said

    Jason is my hero.

    If you dont have time to post the lineup if you can just say if Clement is starting or not.
    That is all I need.

  49. I’m already at Cheney, so the second their Media Relations Director drops the lineup off in the box, I’ll post it. No worries.

  50. But Church — I still haven’t hacked your cell phone yet. Ya can’t call me a bastard 😉

    So, you gonna spill ’em beans on Little G? Maybe it’s the DayQuil I took this morning (damn flu bug!) so I could actually come to work, but all I see on Little G is that he’s on the DL.

  51. Beady Eyes said

    EC – Jack McKeon with Florida comes easily to mind 😉

  52. I dont even know what his injury is yet… i’ll find out in about an hour.

  53. Edman said

    Meche, and several others mentioned, will ONLY be traded if the M’s consider themselves out of the race by the deadline. With this weak division, I don’t see that happening. Dream away…..but it’s more likely than not, that the M’s are buying, rather than selling.

  54. Willmore said

    You can buy and sell at the same time, it’s not unheard of. But, if we are 5 games back, and either Texas or Oakland added heavily at the deadline, I don’t see us keeping our loose baggage in Everett, Pineiro and/or Meche. Especially if they can fetch us anything. On the other hand, say we package one of the above with a few solid prospects that we don’t forsee making an impact for us, like Rob Johnson or Choo. With that package, we can get a major league to help now and some prospects to help later.

    But it’s all speculation, I just hope that we make the right moves when the time comes, whatever those moves might be.

  55. Michael Garciaparra has an injured rib cage… 7-10 days.

  56. StandinPat said

    Everett is the perfect example of a player we could “sell” while promoting someone from within, Snelling, who at worst could be comparable. Cruceta for Piniero is another example that comes to mind. Basically we do have some parts that we could trade away for soley prospects without giving up ont his year, and maybe even improving our MLB squad right now.

  57. Problem is, Everett is owed 1.8 mil STILL, and Pineiro 3.5… terrible player making money get you less than nothing in return.

  58. Jerry said

    Edman,

    You always seem to make these sweeping statements about what the M’s are going to do.

    How could you possibly know that?

  59. Edman = Bill Bavasi.

  60. Jerry said

    I agree with Willmore.

    There is an area between win-now mode and full fire sale.

    For instance, I would have loved to have seen the M’s make the same deal the Red Sox just pulled for Jason Johnson (remember when we were talking about shrewd GM moves a while back…).

    I think that Meche is the guy with trade value, but who knows what teams would give up for him. He does have good stuff, good K numbers, and he might be the type of guy that another team might think has some upside. But the fact that he is a rental wouldn’t help things. If the M’s don’t get a good offer, they can just hold on to him and hope he plays well enough to net them a few draft picks after leaving as a free agent.

    I wouldn’t mind the M’s doing something interesting though, even if it isn’t selling off players.

    For instance, trading Everett to Anahiem for Jeff Weaver would be interesting. The Angels have one too many pitchers right now, and that move would save them a lot of money. The M’s would get a guy who could be really good in Safeco. Who knows if the Angels would do it, especially with a division rival. But they are pretty much out of it, and Weaver has zero value right now. That type of move could work well for the M’s, because Weaver could really turn things around.

  61. Most teams are in between. Not many teams wanna just sell the roster and start over.

  62. willmore2000 said

    I’d like the Weaver move. It give us another potential starter, allowing us to part ways with both Pineiro and Meche, not fearing 2 minor leaguers replacing them.

    Jason, with the way the compensation picks work, is Meche going to be a type A or B.

  63. Depends on how he pitches… it’s based on where each player ranks, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, within his own position.

    I’d guess Type B, but right this second he’s a Type A

  64. mundeazy said

    RE: Sheets

    thought it was him

    thanks for the links jc

  65. Edman said

    LMAO……if logic interferes with your GM wannabe games, then attack I say.

    Why can I say that? Because, the game is played for one outcome…..win and go to the series. EVERY team that feels it can compete, attempts to make deals to better themselves. That train of logic somehow get past some of you in this group?

    Five games back, by the trading deadline, is close enough to make a run at the division. When you get closer to being ten games out…..then you can consider moving baggage.

    If Meche is pitching like he is now, you keep him, because you aren’t going to get anything better in return, and you don’t weaken yourself to make a deal. If Pineiro is still marginal, then you make a deal to improve your rotation.

    You get a chance to upgrade Crazy Carl, you do it. You can get a moto bat……fine. But, to trade Carl when you’re in the race….and particularly if you don’t have anyone with EXPERIENCE ready to take his spot……he’s staying.

    Guardado…….maybe, if you can find a place where he’d get to close. But, chances are, nobody’s gonna touch him ATM. Hope for a turnaround.

    LOL…..Bill Bavasi? Hell, he’s forgotten more than I know.

    Some of you treat this like it’s roto baseball. You don’t like this piece, well you just throw someone with better numbers at it. But, where’s Carl’s leadership factor? No stat for that? Eddie’s influence on Putz, helping to be a better closer? Where’s the stat for that.

    Nothing is more ignorant in baseball, than to remove the human element. This isn’t about who’s numbers add up better. It’s about winning baseball games.

    If you want to live in fantasy land, where all moves have neither a good or bad mental impact, be my guest. But, this game isn’t played by computers…….that’s for us who enjoy video games. It’s about reality TV……the best kind…..the kind that makes baseball the game it is.

  66. Edman said

    For instance, trading Everett to Anahiem for Jeff Weaver would be interesting. The Angels have one too many pitchers right now, and that move would save them a lot of money. The M’s would get a guy who could be really good in Safeco. Who knows if the Angels would do it, especially with a division rival. But they are pretty much out of it, and Weaver has zero value right now. That type of move could work well for the M’s, because Weaver could really turn things around.

    Thank you for the perfect example of what I’m talking about. Jeff “I look worse than Pineiro” Weaver? For Everett? Carl’s at least doing things to win games. Weaver is the kind of guy you take for a “B” prospect, because Anaheim was foolish enough to pay too much for him.

    Just HOW do you get better by moving Carl? Who’s GUARANTEED to be better than him? NOBODY. He’s not putting up great numbers, but he’s doing things to win games. For a DH, he’s fine. If LaHair turns it on in Tacoma, you might have a late season call up. But, chances are he needs more seasoning.

    Some of you think it’s just a matter of tweeking. You tweek too much, you can ruin everything, instead of make it better.

    Sorry, Jerry, but you don’t win by creating holes and taking on someone else’s problems, late in the year.

  67. StandinPat said

    LaHair late season callup? Ok so we are just jumping him over better, more polished prospects like, Snelling, Choo, and Clement? COme one Edman, trading Carl doesnt create an insurmountable void int he lineup. Any one of those three prospects i mentioned are capable of puttin up better than a .711 OPS, which is what Everett is throwin down right now. Weaver over Meche is def a step in the wrong direction. But replacing Piniero with Weaver, and Everett with Snelling makes this team better even if only marginally in both spots.

  68. Javi Flowers said

    Thanks Jason
    One question,¿where is to play in junio 2006 the pitcher Douglas Salinas?

  69. Edman said

    Who said Everett’s departure would be insurmountable? Did I? Or, do you assume?

    Right now, Snelling and Choo aren’t hitting the ball worth a crap. Clement is just returning from injury. Hell, Garciaparra was the best hitter a few days ago.

    The point isn’t that Everett could be replaced….the point is, nobody…..again….NOBODY is hitting the ball well enough to take his spot. So, if you don’t need to trade him….you don’t.

    And PUL—LEASE…..don’t tell me Weaver is an “UPGRADE” to Pineiro. So what, right now, Dave Burba’s an upgrade…..and tons cheaper. Trading for an $8.5 million contract…to be slightly better than Weaver? You really think that’s a good deal?
    Crucetta is a MUCH better option than Weaver, doesn’t cost us a productive player, and mostly, doesn’t add a ton of payroll.

    If you’re gonna trade, get SIGNIFICANT improvement…..either by who you trade for, or who comes up from the minors. If you can’t, then don’t deal. Tweeking isn’t enough to justify making trades. Improvement, is why you make trades.

    Everett is doing fine as a DH. There’s NOBODY playing well enough in the minors to force Seattle to deal him. See, that’s how it works. You make your kids FORCE you into moves…..not hand them jobs because you need developmental points as a GM.

    It’s about winning, and for the Mariners, winning now. You may not like it because, in fantasy land, you get to have the all farm system dream team. Tryouts were last year. This year, it’s about turning the losing cycle around…..and for that reason, you won’t see players wholesaled out.

  70. “Right now, Snelling and Choo aren’t hitting the ball worth a crap. Clement is just returning from injury. Hell, Garciaparra was the best hitter a few days ago.”

    This isn’t true at all. Snelling has a 7-game hit streak and five of those are multi-hit. He’s raised his average 40 points in that span and hit a screaming home run versus Portland on Thursday night.

    Choo, after a bad May is hitting .326 in June and is still drawing walks, stealing bases and playing defense.

    They may not be ready, per se, to be GOOD in the big leagues, but neither could possibly be worse versus LHP than Everett’s god awful .546 OPS and his .422 SLG versus righties is pretty bad and Snelling has a good chance to dupe that, or better it.

    By the All-Star break, Snelling will be ready to hit big league pitching again, and he may be ready this weekend. He’s sure hitting like it.

    The only reason Everett is STILL on the big league roster is Snelling’s inability to play every day yet. His actual performance in the minors means little.

    We agree on pretty much everything else. Weaver sucks, why are we even thinking about him.

  71. willmore2000 said

    Jason, how would you like a bet ? I can guarantee you that Weaver outpitches Meche the rest of the season.

  72. No, Willmore, you CANNOT guarantee me, or anyone else that.

    And the point is, Meche has been better for almost half the season – nearly two runs per nine innings better. So why take on 4 more mil in salary when you aren’t getting an upgrade on Meche or Pineiro?

    Willmore, it’s time you wake up and sense the reality that surrounds you, but clearly has trouble sinking in.

    Jeff Weaver is NOT a good starting pitcher, hasn’t been for four seasons now (2002) and just because his track record is better than Meche’s and Pineiro’s (it is), doesn’t mean he’s likely to get back to form and outpitch ANYONE for the rest of the year.

    He has a few good starts and you are on his wagon as if he’s the same Jeff Weaver that posted a 3.18 ERA in ’02 with the Tigers in 121 innings.

    Will he better than he has been? How can he not be? He was in the 7’s in ERA until his recent stretch of decent outings.

    Will he outpitch Meche from now until the end of the year? probably.

    Is it worth 4 MORE million onto the M’s payroll? No. because Weaver is what he is… and what he is is a league average starting pitcher who can give a club 200-220 innings. The difference between that and what Meche’s most likely path, which, depending on who you ask, is somewhere between what he’s done up until now and what he did a year ago.

    You don’t go out and give up a single thing of value for neglible improvements.

    And if YOU think Weaver is going to be so good and can GUARANTEE it? Why couldn’t the Halos guarantee it and just keep Weaver?

    But again, you miss the point.

    Weaver over Meche? Yes, with a catch. Don’t offer me Weaver at 4 mil for Meche at 1.8. I’ll take Meche and so will the Mariners.

  73. willmore2000 said

    Jason, if Everett is not on the team after the deadline, there’s half of that 4 million gone right there. And then it’s a difference of maybe 1 mil between Meche and Weaver. If Guardado is gone too (if anyone will take him), there’s more fat trimmed off the payroll. Seattle can take on salary, expecially since it’s not a long-term deal.

    If you agree that Weaver will outpitch Meche, and by the way, I’m not saying they will be close, I expect Weaver to blow away anything that Meche will be able to offer. Why wouldn’t you try and get Weaver if it doesn’t cost you good prospects or good players ? The Angels WANT to dump Weaver, not because he’s a bad pitcher, but because they have what they perceive as an all-star right now in AAA. If they didn’t have Jered in AAA, they would be happy to keep Jeff.

    We should take advantage of this.

    This deal costs us nothing, because with Snelling pushing everyday, Everett will be gone sooner or later.

    I’m guessing that Rivera + some potential long/middle relief prospect should get Weaver.

    Anaheim will shed salary, allowing them to buy at the deadline, should they choose to do so, and upgrade the rotation immediately.

    Seattle will add salary up until the deadline, but will likely save money after it, and if they don’t, it means they are winning, which is good. We get a good starter that another team did not need, while freeing up a possible trade oportunity for Meche without hindering the rotation. OR, if we are winning, Meche becomes the #5 and rides out the year with us. And upgrade to the rotation either way, with Pineiro being replaced in both cases by Meche or a minor league arm.

    It might vert well be true that I’m not seeing something, but I really don’t see a downside to this trade.

    It will likely never happen, because random speculation rarely results in an actual trade (see Griffey), but I would very much like this one, should it happen.

  74. Jason, if Everett is not on the team after the deadline, there’s half of that 4 million gone right there.

    Umm, no, Willmore, that isn't true at all. if they deal him and they are lucky enough to get some foolish club to take all fo the remaining salary, that would clear abouth half, depending on WHEN he's dealt, of Everett's 3.4 mil TOTAL 2006 salary.

    Weaver is making almost 9 mil this year, which means if the M's added him to the roster, they'd owe about half, or about 4.5 million.

    That's some fuzzy math you got going there, Willmore.

    Furthermore, no team is going to be dumb enough to deal for Everett and take on the remaining salary – he's NOT an asset.

    If you agree that Weaver will outpitch Meche, and by the way, I’m not saying they will be close, I expect Weaver to blow away anything that Meche will be able to offer. Why wouldn’t you try and get Weaver if it doesn’t cost you good prospects or good players ? The Angels WANT to dump Weaver, not because he’s a bad pitcher, but because they have what they perceive as an all-star right now in AAA. If they didn’t have Jered in AAA, they would be happy to keep Jeff.

    I don't necessarily agree that Weaver is going to outpitch Meche, but I'd lean that way, sure. But BLOW AWAY? No. Weaver is about league average, which would put him in the area of a 4.1 to 4.4 ERA… Meche could revert back to 2005 form for the rest of the year and still end up within a whispers distance of that by year's end.

    To me, BLOWING AWAY one's performance is like… a 2 run differential in ERA over the remainder of the year. Which, by the way, is what Meche has done to Weaver over the first 11 weeks of the 25 week season.

    Possible? Anything is. But I'll take that bet. No way does Weaver better Meche by TWO RUNS PER 9IP from today forward. No way.

    And the Angels only WANT to dump Weaver due to SALARY. With Colon not back to form and Lackey and Escobar showing inconsistencies of late, why wouldn't they want to maximize the late run by Weaver?

    Fact is, they do. They don't want to dump Weaver, they want to dump his salary. It's a HUGE risk and not worth taking for Seattle for a marginal upgrade.

    It's a ridiculous thought. if he was going to be free, or maybe cost the M's less than 2 mil for the remainder of the year… that's something worth thinking about.

    But 4.5 mil is a lot of money for one of the more enigmatic starters in baseball

    This deal costs us nothing, because with Snelling pushing everyday, Everett will be gone sooner or later.

    Get this out of your head, dude. Everett for Weaver is not going to happen. It's an idiotic idea. What possible good does Everett do for LAA? He's terrible, they alreadyhave terrible. They need to make improvments. And if they dealt Weaver for Everett, they are getting a 2 mil player that they can' t use for a 4.5 mil player that they CAN AND ARE USING and getting play out of.

    You speak of Snelling like LAA doesn't have their own Snelling. They have three of him. Kotchman, McPherson, Morales — all better values than Everett. He's as redundant in Anaheim as he is in Seattle.

    And yer still wrong… the deal DOES cost the M's something… payroll. Unnecessary payroll.

    If you want to add a starting pitcher, go add one who isn't making 9 million bucks and hasn't posted an ERA near 6 thru June 21.

    I’m guessing that Rivera + some potential long/middle relief prospect should get Weaver.

    You were partly right — you sure are guessing. Talk about misguided speculation. Why would they have ANY INTEREST AT ALL IN RIVERA? They have Napoli and Mathis, both much better catching options than Rivera, not to mention Jose Molina, a veteran version of Rivera.

    And we're right back at square one. Why would the Mariners benefit from Weaver for all that money and a neglible upgrade – if any.

    Heck, Weaver may or may not be an upgrade to Pineiro, let alone Meche. I'd bet on it if I had to bet one way or the other, but for 4.5 million bananas, I want more assurance in what I am getting.

    And you say Seattle will add salary up until the deadline… I'm guessing that you mean they would add salary in a trade… which I know to be true… but it's got to be for the right player, not some run-of-the-mill rental that may or may not be better than what they already have six million invested in.

    And… how are they going to SAVE money after the deadline?

    By the way, LAA doesn't need to shed Weaver's salary to add to their payroll. They have room and Moreno will allow more to be added if Stoneman finds the right deal. They are not dying to deal Weaver so they can get better. They are waiting for the right player to become available so they can decide whether it's worth trading some of their young players.

    The only time Weaver makes any sense is after July 31 when the Angels find themselves with no chance of the postseason and are willing to meet the acquiring team in the middle on a Weaver deal… something there is no chance of right now, but in Mid August when he's only due another 1.5 or 2 mil, you could see a club like LAA tossing in 700-800k cash to get a deal done for a C+ prospect or two.

    If the Mariners want to add upgrades and truly make a run at the A's and Rangers, mostly the A's, Weaver isn't the guy.

    There may not be a starting pitcher that makes any sense. But there may be a bat or two.

  75. Javi Flowers said

    Thanks Jason.

    Please.¿Where is the pitcher Pedro Rodriguez of Red sox? and ¿Where born Jose Garcia of Marlins?

  76. Javi Flowers said

    ¿What is the big leaguers of Veneuela in to play in the venezuelan summer leahue?

  77. Jerry said

    I totally agree with Willmore.

    I think that we can all agree that Weaver is better than his numbers right now.

    Scratch the idea of Everett for Weaver. Just for conversation sake, lets say that the M’s just trade a crap prospect for Weaver, with the M’s picking up the tab for his salary. That isn’t unreaslistic.

    Then, the M’s turn around and deal Meche to a contending club. The Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, etc. Without getting into specifics of packages, some club would give up one or two B plus prospects for Meche, who currently has a 3.94 ERA and a nice K rate. It is the perfect time to sell high. The M’s come out of it with a few good prospects.

    OK, Meche’s money comes off the books, offseting 1/2 of the money the M’s would be adding for Weaver. Thus, the M’s would be looking at a net increase of about 2 million dollars.

    The M’s could break even if they move Guardado, who should have at least enough trade value to get some club to pay half of his remaing salary. The M’s might even get a Carvajal-type project back in the process.

    If I were the m’s, I would also look to move Mateo, but that is a separate issue.

    Now, the M’s could ditch Carl and Pineiro, and finish the season with this club:

    Ichiro RF
    Beltre 3B
    Lopez 2B
    Ibanez LF
    Sexson 1B
    Snelling DH (Petagine as plan B)
    Johjima C
    Reed CF
    Betancourt SS

    Rotation: Moyer, Felix, Washburn, Weaver, Cruceta (with others getting a shot if he fails)

    I would take that club over what we have now. Plus, the M’s get to add some talent to the farm system. They come out slightly better now, but in a lot better shape in the long run.

  78. StandinPat said

    Weaver = tits on a boar

  79. willmore2000 said

    I’m with Jerry on this, but I’ve just decided to give up trying to convince Jason and instead, agree to disagree.

  80. MatthewCarruth said

    Meche is more like 1/3 of Weaver’s salary, not 1/2.

    Also, what’s the point? What does Weaver get you for 2+ months? It’s not like he’s Carlos Lee and could possibly push the club up to another level.

  81. If you add Weaver and his 4.5 mil remaining salary, yer done dealing for the year. The M’s would be at 95.6 mil for the year’s payroll and you won’t be able to squeeze any more out of Lincoln and co.

    You wanna waste it on Weaver?

    Baffling.

  82. Javi Flowers said

    Hello,hello,hello my friends
    What´s the projection of the pitcher of Mets Deolis Guerra 17 years old.

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