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Trading Carl Everett

Posted by Jason A. Churchill on June 25, 2006

So, June 1 came and went and Dave Clark’s nightmare came to fruition: Carl Everett remained a member of the Seattle Mariners.

That date was key because it was the first day that a club could trade a free agent signed the previous winter without the players’ consent. Clark’s hope was that Chris Snelling would be lighting the Pacific Coast League on fire by mid-May so the M’s would deal away Everett or simply designate the 34-year-old for assignment.

Everett’s contract calls for $3.4 million this season with a team option for 2007. But the options vests automatically if Everett reaches 450 plate appearances in this, the first year of the pact.

Everett slugged .439 in April and hit .291 in May to earn his keep and provide the club with some attitude while they built towards their current winning streak. But Everett has been awful in his 57 June at-bats, hitting just .193/.246/.198.

Through Sunday’s 9-4 win over San Diego, Everett was hitting .244/.319/.384 for the season with nine home runs and 28 RBI. So why is Everett still on the roster?

Good question and it’s one Clark brings up. A lot. Every. Single. Damned. Day.

But he’s right, Everett isn’t hitting and that’s the only value he brings to the club, other than the possibility that his veteran presence carries some weight in the clubhouse. But is that worth a $4 million option?

Clark and I talked about the issue over the past few weeks and this is what transpired via instant message:

Dave Clark says:

So if Carl Everett wasn’t on the club how would you manage the DH duties for the next month?

Jason A. Churchill says:

Morse versus LH, Choo versus RH and when Choo starts, Ibanez to DH.

Dave Clark says: Up until the trade deadline they have 32 games including tonight

You figure to bat the Choo/Morse platoon in the 6 or 7 slots? Or does that change based upon which guy is hitting that day?
Jason A. Churchill says: I dunno… wherever, really, depending on whether they were facing a RHP or LHP.

Dave Clark says:

Ok, Morse would bat in the 6,7 and Choo in the 2 or 9?

Jason A. Churchill says:

I don’t think I’d use Choo in the 2-hole right now. Not this year.

Dave Clark says:

Two reasons I assume:

1 – He’s not really ready for it

2 – Beltre seems to be doing well there

Jason A. Churchill says:

No. 2 mostly. Interrupting Adrian Beltre’s recent streak is something I’m not interested in, to be honest.

Dave Clark says:

I notice you don’t mention Roberto Petagine. Is that because you feel he’s better as a Pinch Hitter, because he’s just not got a future in the organization, or due to the fact that Hargrove would never play him so its pointless?

Jason A. Churchill says:

Petagine’s just not that good and brings no other value to the game except for the occasional pinch-hitting appearance.

Dave Clark says:

Is there any reason to think that using those two (Choo and Morse) in a platoon DH/LF situation they could outperform Carl’s 247/3222/389?

Jason A. Churchill says:

I think so, but others will disagree, simply because Everett is a veteran. And while there is some value to that, it doesn’t outweigh the advantages to punting Everett and using the kids.

Dave Clark says:

I notice that Morse v lefties in the majors is only 2-6. Everett v lefties is an amazing 169/258/288.

Jason A. Churchill says:

Snelling is crushing lefties… and Choo is improved, though both hit right-handers well, of course.

Dave Clark says:

Morse in Tacoma v lefties this year was 282/333/538 — 2HR and 4 doubles in 39AB

Dave Clark says:

in face his 872 OPS v lefties in Tacoma blows away his .620 v righties

Dave Clark says:

So Morse > than Everett v lefties, by quite a bit, even considering they are minor league numbers.

Jason A. Churchill says:

Yeah, Morse was hitting both righties and lefties in May after a terrible April.

Jason A. Churchill says:

Versus LHP in May – 3-for-10… versus RHP in May – 12-for- 40, and far less whiffs.

Dave Clark says:

When one looks at the performance of Carl v righties you can see that has been his strength. To this point Carl has a 272/343/422. That’s pretty decent considering the home park.

Dave Clark says:

Choo, though, offers the club a player that improves the LF defense and a possible future in 2007.

Dave Clark says:

Thing is one can not help but think that he could perform as well as Carl has vs RHP while giving the team a dramatic improvement on defense in LF in 80% of its games.

Jason A. Churchill says:

Choo v RHP – .313/.403/.511, 8 HR in Tacoma in ’06.

Jason A. Churchill says:

I think the important thing to note here is that the Mariners could dump Everett and possibly get better offensively, but at least be very close in overall production while perhaps giving the club a more valuable – and movable piece for the winter.

Dave Clark says:

This move not only makes the team better over these next key five weeks of this season, it also makes it better and more financially flexible for ‘07.

Jason A. Churchill says:

Potentially increasing the values of both Morse and Choo, for both the M’s, if they keep them, and other clubs looking for smaller pieces to a bigger trade, is a big, big bonus in a scenario such as this.

Dave Clark says:

One of the things that is notable about Everett is that although he’s third on the team in HR v Righties he’s 7th in total bases v Righties, and only barely ahead of Johjima (3 TB behind) and Reed (9 TB behind) who have 16 and 30 less ABs respectively.

Dave Clark says:

Does Morse have any OB or SLG against LHP last year?

Jason A. Churchill says:

Yeah, 244/318.

Dave Clark says:

That’s in Tacoma though right?

Jason A. Churchill says:

Yeah, just 52 ABs

Dave Clark says:

I’m looking up his 2005 MLB lefty splits right now

Jason A. Churchill says:

I got it — Morse v LHP in 2005… 272/352/395, combined with his 429/471/643 this year.

Dave Clark says:

So he’s not great at LHP, but has shown potential, and considering he’d be replacing the stunning 169/258/288 of Everett, the move still seems to be a net positive in the lefties situation.

Jason A. Churchill says:

He’s been really good this year in uber-tiny sample sizes but Grover has already conceded to Morse at DH versus lefties, so we dont really need to rationalize that.

Dave Clark says:

Is there any reason to think that Choo’s defense couldn’t handle the spacious Left Field up in SafeCo?

Jason A. Churchill says:

I dont think he’d be gold-glove like out there, but he can handle it. He’ll probably need a little bit of time to get comfortable as he did in Tacoma, though. But he’d have better range and a better arm, than Ibanez, so he’s a major upgrade there, even if it’s just a few days a week.

Dave Clark says:

And he’s not replacing a Gold Glove, he’s replacing a guy who at best is a league average defender

Dave Clark says:

The move also gives Hargrove a situational hitter on the bench for PH opportunities.

Jason A. Churchill says:

Snelling replaces Choo when he’s ready anyways, so we’re only talking Choo for about five weeks and if somehow he’s on fire, you make a different move that keeps Choo up WITH Snelling.

Dave Clark says:

Right, the key is the 30-32 games until the trade deadline…

Dave Clark says:

I’m really thinking that either a DFA or a deal of Everett for an organizational minor leaguer improves the offense AND the defense of the major league club while raising the value of two possibly tradeable young guys while also increasing financial flexibility for next year, since Everett’s option would not vest.

Dave Clark says:

If the move also creates an atmosphere more conducive to competing for the AL West title it in turn helps attendance and claritiy concerning the trade deadling.

Jason A. Churchill says:

In the end, however, the key might be to improve the LF/DH spot with another veteran via trade. A true contender doesn’t have a DH split of two rookies who don’t hit for much power – which is what Morse and Choo would bring.

Dave Clark says:

Right, the only thing the Morse/Choo platoon does is temporarily fix the LF/DH slot. It is not a full-season solution, just a simple in-season fix that gives the big club a better chance to win games now.

Jason A. Churchill says:

Pslim brought up a good idea in Eddie Perez from Cleveland, if they get off their stubborn ways.

Then you can go Snelling/Perez at DH and Snelling/Raul in left, or Choo/Perez, Choo/Raul

Jason A. Churchill says:

Either way, the offense is better, and the defense is better

and… Everett‘s option does not vest.

Dave Clark says:

Right, the plus side of this idea is the offense- RIGHT NOW, the defense NOW, youth development NOW and financial flexibility in the future, starting this upcoming winter.

The negatives? Ummm, I guess you could say that it shows the other veterans that you are no longer willing to be patient with them.

Jason A. Churchill says:

Yeah, it could, but I dont think it goes there at all. It’s just one roster spot.

Jason A. Churchill says:

If they did that with a few spots, or some key vets then maybe. But they aren’t. Though they should with Eddie Guardado, but that’s another conversation for another day.

Dave Clark says:

I just can’t look at the idea of Choo taking Everett‘s spot on the 25 Man as a negative, even my phrasing above is really a tiny positive

Dave Clark says:

I guess the negative is that Hargrove would be unlikely to adhere to the concept.

Jason A. Churchill says:

Grover is the type of idiot that hits and runs with Sexson at the plate, Beltre running from third and Ibanez running at first— with one out. End rant.

Dave Clark says:

Is there anything to this idea that we haven’t covered?

Jason A. Churchill says:

Let’s see… we covered the why it works part: Because it vastly improves the defensive flexibility with Choo in left instead of Ibanez on an everyday basis — which also helps keep Raul fresh and further from injury.

Jason A. Churchill says:

It improves the future flexibility with Everett‘s contract …

Jason A. Churchill says:

It gives Choo some time to improve his value as a young player, and it opens a spot for Snelling when he’s ready, and/or a trade for a better option, and also a FA in the winter.

Jason A. Churchill says:

The negatives? There aren’t any. ZERO.

Jason A. Churchill says:

I guess eating 1.7 mil is a negative, but it’s not my money, so…

Dave Clark says:

I think the biggest negative would be the unwillingness of the Field Manager to behave in accordance with the moves of the General Manager.

Jason A. Churchill says:

If we go into the minds of the manager and GM, there is a lot about this that doesn’t work.

Dave Clark says:

Ok, then we should likely ignore that aspect

Dave Clark says:

The 1.7 Million is basically already wasted in that Everett isn’t putting up replacement level numbers anyways.

Jason A. Churchill says:

Good point… and another positive is Choo being called up opens a spot for Wlad Balentien to strike out three times a game in Tacoma, rather than twice per in San Antonio.

Dave Clark says:

In effect the move would be like a defacto payment to Choo/Morse.

Jason A. Churchill says:

I think the biggest, and perhaps only negative is that it makes too much sense.

Dave Clark says:

The cash is going out no matter what, so you might as well get guys that stand a chance of making the team better

Jason A. Churchill says:

True, I mean, what is the absolute worse production you get from Morse versus lefties?

Jason A. Churchill says:

240/280/370?

Dave Clark says:

200/250/325 ish? But that’s still better than Everett

Jason A. Churchill says:

And Choo versus righties? 240/300/375? The development, defense and speed value alone might be worth this move, even if Choo is worse than Everett versus RHP.

Jason A. Churchill says:

I understand the “veteran in the middle of the lineup” thing, but Lopez is not a veteran and he’s hitting third in a lineup that leads the AL in slugging and OPS in June.

Jason A. Churchill says:

So, out with the old and in with the new, you son of a bitch.

Dave Clark says:

You know the speed angle you mentioned may be important as well. Hargrove is obviously aggressive on the paths this year, while this passion may be folly, wouldn’t it be better if the tools he had to run were more capable of running?

Jason A. Churchill says:

Well, it’s not like he’s running Everett around the bases, so Choo replacing Everett wouldn’t eliminate mistakes… it would just present more opportunity for those wonderful baserunning blunders.
Dave Clark says:
Ok, we finally found a negative.

 

In the end, we concluded that the absolute worst that a Shin-soo Choo-Mike Morse platoon could do is reasonably close to what Everett-Morse could do, plus the defensive value added with Choo playing left field versus many RHP, sliding Ibanez to the DH spot.

Of course, the biggest plus may be that Everett’s option does not vest and Chris Snelling is an even better option than Choo. But Snelling may need another month or so to shore up that knee and ramp up to playing five or six days per week.

When he gets there, Snelling should be splitting the DH/LF role with Ibanez on this contending club. But until then, what’s wrong with giving Choo some valuable PT and improving the team’s defense in left field?

Imagine if Choo comes up and hits well – maybe a 270+-340+-410+ line to go with his defensive value and speed…

So while I’m scouring the trade possibilities for next month’s trade deadline, the biggest addition may be a deal involving C-Rex and an in-house farmhand.

Of course the club should add a proven big-league bat if they can, but the market is pretty dry.

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129 Responses to “Trading Carl Everett”

  1. Katal said

    Two questions:

    1. With all this talk about Everett’s option kicking in after 450 plate appearances, how long do you think it would be until that occurs?

    2. Regarding the trading market, is something like “Johnson, Cabrera, and another prospect for Jason Schmidt” at all realistic? There don’t seem too be many bats available unless you want to trade the farm for Lee or Crawford, but the Giants are only at .500, and a TOR starter is always a nice addition.

  2. 1. It should happen NOW, but obviously hasn’t and that may have as much to do with Grover’s preferences than anything else.

    2. I don’t think Schmidt makes much sense for the M’s. He’s a FA to be and is one that may not make much sense to re-sign in the offseason — he’ll be seeking a 3-5 year deal for more annually than Washburn received and will have a ton of offers if he finishes the year strong.

    His NW ties mean nothing.

    I don’t think Johnson, Cabrera and another prospect would do it anyways, unless Jones or Clement are the “other” prospect.

    If SF puts JS on the market, many teams will come hard and strong after him, including NYY, Boston and maybe Detroit, where I personally think he fits best.

  3. Goose said

    Just another reason to hate Mike Hargrove.

    Damn you Hargrove. DAMN YOU TO HELL!

  4. Seth said

    A couple things…

    1. Good article.

    2. I thought we should’ve dumped Carl 5 min. after signing him.

    3. That negative you finally came up with makes me cringe.

    4. Dealing for JS makes NO sense to me because…
    A)He’s a FA to be.
    B)He might sign with Seattle as a FA.
    C)He’s hasn’t been great for a year or two.
    D)I really like a lot of our prospects & don’t really like JS.

    5. I know that everyone will disagree with this, so you don’t even need to bother bashing me. So let’s say Choo comes up and tears it up. Then Snelling is ready in about a month. We’d have 3 legit LF/DH players. Now Snelling and Choo are cheap and young. That leaves Raul. I’m gonna preface this by saying I don’t like Raul, never have, don’t know why. He’s productive and consitent but I just don’t like him. So I say…trade Raul to a team like the Cardinals who need offensive and OF help (maybe we could throw in Eddie). Anyway, it would make a lot of sense, here’s why…
    A) As I said this is only if Choo was tearing it up & Snelling doesn’t get hurt in the next month (fingers crossed).
    B) If Raul continues doing well he could net us a good prospect or two.
    C) Similar to what you guys talked about with Carl, it would open up the financial possiblities for the Mariners. Here’s salaries we’d be getting rid of…

    Joel Pineiro 6,800,000
    Eddie Guardado 6,250,000
    Raul Ibanez 4,916,667
    Gil Meche 3,700,000
    Carl Everett 3,400,000

    LOOK THAT’D BE $25,066,667 OFF THE BOOKS!!!! Plus Moyer will probably sign cheaper since he’s not having as good a year.

    Anyway that’s my 2 cents.

  5. Everett’s contract, even for 2007, doesnt BLOCK anyone, nor does Raul’s. They’ll get the best help they can regardless of whether either are on the club or not.

    So trading Raul doesn’t “create financial flexibility.”

    It creates a hole in the lineup, though, and you know what they say about holes in heads.

  6. Goose said

    If we were out of contention or Choo and Snelling were to put up the same numbers Raul is, then I could see trading him.

    But since we are very much in contention, and neither Choo nor Snelling is gonna match Raul’s career year, then I see no reason why we should trade our #1 run producer.

    Man, Raul has got to be on steriods or something. .284/.351/.532 16 bombs, 60 RBI’s. They must have him under hypnosis. Put him in the cleanup spot, so now he thinks he’s an actual cleanup hitter.

  7. But Neither Snelling nor Choo can dupe Raul’s numbers. Not this year, not even next.

    He’s on my all-star team. (see upper left corner)

  8. The - 06- Take said

    You really don’t think that Schmidt’s Northwest ties mean nothing? He grew up as a Mariners fan and he said he has interest in playing for us sometime in his career. (http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/06/16/SPGAOJEBK11.DTL)

    While I wouldn’t count on a hometown discount, I think we have a fair chance at signing him this offseason.

  9. I don’t give a rats what Schmidt would like, the Mariners aren’t going to have any interest in 4+ years and 45+ million for a 34-year-old pitcher with a history of health issues.

    It won’t matter that he’s from the area.

  10. Besides, wouldn’t you rather have Matsuzaka for less than that?

    If you know anything about him, your answer is yes.

  11. JH said

    Ibanez’s OPS is currently pushing .900

    I guess you could make a case for trading high, but he’s having a legitimate career year, and since about 45% of his hits are going for extra bases, I don’t think it’s a fluke.

    I wasn’t a fan of the extension at the time, but if he can keep this up for the next few years he’s a bargain at either LF or DH…preferably DH because his defense is terrible.

  12. The ONLY thing I didn’t like about Raul’s extension was the timing of it.

    At least make him go thru the AS break and stay healthy, produce and avoid decline.

  13. Jerry said

    Good thread.

    I like all of these ideas. The only thing that I would worry about is Choo struggling. He seems to be really streaky and has a tendency to struggle when he is promoted. I am wondering how long the M’s would give him if he did come up and sucked initially.

    I wouldn’t mind seeing the M’s give Choo and Morse a shot to play often in the meantime. Both of those guys could be valuable bench players, and one could suprise and end up being a viable option as a starter. But you don’t know unless you give them a shot. But I would hate to see the M´s give Choo a shot, have him struggle for a few weeks, then discard him. I think that that is a real strong possibility of happening with him. But you never know until you try. And any additional information they can get on these guys before next offseason would be valuable.

    I am also wondering if Snelling couldn’t slide into the DH right now. He is hitting, and the M´s could let him split DH/LF with Raul, with Morse fitting in occasionally to give them a break against lefties. I would think that that would be the ideal setup.

    I don’t know as much about Snelling’s status as you probably do, but couldn’t they just promote him and ease him into it at the big league level? He is not the typical AAA player. Even though he is technically a rookie, I consider him more like an injured veteran. Perhaps they should deal with him as such.

  14. willmore2000 said

    “Petagine’s just not that good and brings no other value to the game except for the occasional pinch-hitting appearance.”

    Are you serious, Jason ?

    Petagine is a far better option for a platoon than Choo ever was or ever will be. Playing in the international league last yeat, Petagine hit .327/.452/.635. He’s got fantastic on-base skills, great power, and he’s a lefty. He’s been made a PH throughout his career and that’s the only reason Hargrove isn’t starting him. I bet Hargrove doesn’t even know Petagine’s stats last year. Petagine is not a PH, he’s a true DH who could put up Edgar numbers circa 2002 if played regularly.

  15. willmore2000 said

    Oh yeah, and in 2003, he put up nearly identical numbers to Hideki Matsui in Japan.

  16. Edman said

    OK…..let’s see if we can find earth.

    What GM, in their right mind, would even consider trading Everett NOW, when they are in the midst of a winning streak they haven’t see since 2001?

    For whatever reason, the offense is working….with Everett in the lineup. I just can’t see ANY GM moving him. It is beyond silly to keep bringing up the same crap….over…..and over….and over.

    If they start losing again……then lets talk about it. But there is nearly ZERO chance of them removing him from the roster. Like him or hate him, he’s a guy, like Buhner, you want in the locker room. He wants to win, and doesn’t accept anything less. THAT is a good example for the kids, to not forget why they’re here.

    Is it possible to END this discussion, until (being pesimistic) they start losing again? When people like Goose use SPECULATION in his continued hatred for Hargrove, I think it’s clear that this is becoming more about bitching, than anything else.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see Snelling here….and believe he will be, once he’s back to near 100%. But, there is one thing I’ve learned over the years…..if something working, don’t try to fix it. Right now, the M’s are winning. You may not believe in chemistry….but many in baseball do.

  17. dnc said

    I hate the “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” concept.

    The fact is, our DH situation IS broke. And it needs to be fixed, ASAP.

    You used the same logic to imply that Lopez shouldn’t be moved from the 2 spot in the order. “BUT IT’s WORKING!” Well, we changed it, and it still works. In fact, it works better.

    The same thing will happen when this team finally gets serious about using a real hitter in the DH slot. Waiting for a losing streak to address the issue is asking for a losing streak.

  18. Re: Willmore

    Except Petagine can't play the outfield and has NO FUTURE with the club.

    Next.

  19. Edman said

    Just how is it broke? Is Carl somehow impeding the scoring of run? Is he the worse hitting DH in the league?

    He’s broke, in yours and some other’s minds, and that’s fine. But, it gets back to the same thing….AGAIN.

    Everett is here to stay, barring a losing season. Don’t like it? Great….don’t, that’s fine by me. He’s budgeted and paid for, so it’s not like you get to throw that money elsewhere. He’s not making enough to suddenly give us a windfall of money.

    Never look a gift horse in the mouth. While it’s easy to say, “Let him go” now…….Carl has done one thing better than Snelling………stayed healthy enough to contribute for a full season. I love Chris, but I’d sure not cut my nose off to spite my face, believing he can do what he hasn’t the last three or four seasons……stay healthy.

    And PULEEZE…..Morse as an upgrade? I like him in the roll he’s in…..but to think that somehow he’s gonna be a vast improvement…….he just hasn’t shown me that much.

  20. dnc said

    “Is Carl somehow impeding the scoring of run?”

    Uhhh, yes. He’s hitting like a pitcher right now. If you don’t think that’s impeding the run scoring process, I don’t know what to tell you.

    “Is he the worse hitting DH in the league?”

    I certainly hope the Mariners FO has higher standards than you.

  21. Beady Eyes said

    None of you saw the sulky Crazy Carl that I saw on Saturday. The man was sitting away from his teammates and occasionally would scan the stands. Since I was sitting next to the dugout (or close enough to make eye contact) his whole body language is basically “I hate this, I want to be someplace else.”

    Dunno…I think Carl is a waste of space and there are better alternatives. Shoot, look how well we are playing with certain guys hitting career lows?

    I think the clubhouse leader myth that is Crazy Carl is just that…a MYTH.

  22. Edman said

    One other thing……just what kind of message would it say to those veterans……and young players, for as well…..to dump someone who’s a part of the turn around they are part of?

    You don’t think it might send the wrong message that, while we love your leadership, we think we can tweek things a bit, and replace you with a rookie?

    I sure wouldn’t be happy if I was an Ibanez, Sexson, Beltre, Guardado……knowing that you’d simply forget my past contributions, because you’re trying to squeeze out one more run a week.

  23. Beady Eyes said

    I might add this…I saw only ONE player come over to talk to him. ONE (Morse). Outside of that. He sat in the same spot (the Padre visitor dugout is next to the cameras and Carl was very visible no matter where you’d sit.

    Being a business owner and long time manager of people, I can say I know when somebody wants to be elsewhere (or is sulking). Carl overrates himself and that is a shame. If he was truly the “team guy” he claims he is, why didn’t Chicago want him back?

  24. Beady Eyes said

    Ed: You have a point there, BUT, Guardado is doing nothing but subtly bitching to the media about his “plight.” I don’t think too many would shed a tear if we sent Eddie on his way.

  25. StandinPat said

    What a strange thread. People actually claiming Carl isnt hurting our offense? He is currently the worst hitter in the lineup, and his position Designated Hitter! How the F does that work? Choo would be better, Snelling would be tons better. I think Morse or Petagine would actually be better than what he is currently doing. But more importantly having Choo or Snelling come up and fill that void builds towards next year as well as this year. Plus they both can play LF, improving our defense as well as the offense. Its a freakin no brainer. Sayin either one of those guys doesnt give us more for this year and the next is ridiculous.

  26. Edman said

    Beady Eyes……it’s that kind of drivel that I can’t stand. Sulk? You determined this how? By watching a few camera shots in the dugout? Well, doesn’t that tell all.

    And, since you THINK Carl’s leadership is a myth…..it also means you don’t KNOW it isn’t….now doesn’t it?

    Personally, I want a guy like Carl on that bench, even if he’s not the best hitter. I want a guy who slaps a rookie upside the head, when they can’t find the modivation to beat the tar out of the other team. When Jay showed that kind of drive, we all loved it. But, because it’s not the lovable Jay Buhner, we just can’t accept it…..can we?

    Say what you want about Carl……but the guy wants to win each and every time he takes the field. I WANT those young kids to see and understand that. I don’t want them thinking it’s “FUN” to play baseball. They’re there to beat the other team…..and nothing else.

  27. Willmore said

    “Except Petagine can’t play the outfield and has NO FUTURE with the club.”

    And Choo does ? Choo is trade bait and while Ichiro is in RF, we need a real power hitter in LF, not Choo, not for the next 5 years. Besides, Snelling is the LF/DH of the future, not Choo. Petagine would simply be the best option for a platoon with Morse or whoever.

  28. Choo may, and even as trade bait, if he plays, his value goes up.

    Thanks for proving my point even further.

    BTW, for those that think Everett has been a big part of the turnaround, think again. Look at his June numbers.

    And overall, he’s been less than mediocre after a solid start.

    Do you want his option to vest?

  29. StandinPat said

    Edman

    How is Carl part of the turn around? This turnaround is due alsmot soley to our offense catching fire. Every player in the lineup is having a great June, except Carl how is having his worst month by far. And by the by, promoting Choo or Snelling does send a message, that we want to win and are gonna find ways to improve the club, not just placate some non-dinasaur believng, gay-hating, washed-up veteran with a $4 million dollar vesting option.

  30. Goose said

    So let me get this straight Edman.

    You would rather have Carl Everett, a guy hitting .244/.321/.384 and “clubhouse leadership, knows how to win, blah blah blah” then some other player who say would put up a .270/.340/.440 line and has little of the above intangibles?

    Well my Mariners team with the guy with no intangibles would whip your Mariners team with Carl Everett 9 times out of 10.

    Why?

    BECAUSE I HAVE THE BETTER FREAKING PLAYER!!!

    DUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    All that intangible bullshit is overrated. Yeah there is some importance to it, but if your gonna have a guy like that, he better at least be hitting decently. The object of the batter is to hit the goddamn ball, not to be a great guy in the clubhouse.

    Oh and this little beauty here ” I don’t want them thinking it’s “FUN” to play baseball. They’re there to beat the other team…..and nothing else.”

    Dude, baseball IS A FUCKING GAME! And last I checked, games are supposed to be fun.Yeah no shit they are here to beat the other team. I think they know that. That’s exactly why I love Jose Lopez. The kid is always smiling and always having fun. He plays this game like it’s a fucking game.

    Oh and you know what kind of message it sends the vetrans if we dumb Everett. It tells them “Hey guys, either start hitting the ball like we know you can, or we will replace you with somebody who will. We want to win, and people that are hitting like shit, don’t help us win.”

    The only thing I agree with you is that we can’t depend on Snelling. He needs to prove to us he can stay healthy before we start involving him in future plans.

  31. eponymous coward said

    Except Petagine can’t play the outfield and has NO FUTURE with the club.

    And Choo does have a future, once Snelling is healthy?

    I suppose you could give him an audition for a month and then make him trade bait, but really, we’re kinda stocked to overflowing with LH slap hitting OF’ers (Ichiro, Reed, Choo, Snelling).

    Really, I don’t see why Petagine/Morse as a platoon DH until Snelling is capable of being an everyday LF is such an awful idea- I think that based on Petagine’s minor league/intl stats you’d pick up a considerable amount of offense on Choo or Everett. Having Choo in the OF is valid, IMO…but I think you can make a reasonable argument for Petagine as well that doesn’t deserve an offhand dismissal.

    This, of course, is why I HATED the C-Rex deal. We could easily have replaced C-Rex with PAs from Lawton and Petagine and a RH platoon partner (guys off the scrap heap), had fresh and regularly used bench players, and used the $ other places. But that would require Hargrove to spend time filling out different lineup cards instead of knocking back SoCo and cokes in his office (Lou might have had issues, but he DID know how to use his bench to keep it fresh, and would know what to do with a guy like Petagine- get him a couple hundred AB’s somehow and make him into a useful backup for a couple of years- kind of a Ken Phelps-lite).

    And I’m thinking the market for C-Rex hitting the way he is and getting close to an option vesting is about where Matt Lawton’s was- somewhere between zero and nil with a long strong of noughts. Why would you want to trade for one of the worst DHs in the AL, who can’t really play a field position and has an OPS below .700 his last 500 PAs or so (counting from July 2005 to today), and get stuck with him cashing paychecks in 2007? It would be one thing if he was going to be a free agent come November, but you’re talking about a guy who has clubhouse issues already who’s not likely to be happy if he gets used by his new team in a way that costs him 7 digits. I just don’t see the logic of acquiring him if I’m a GM.

    And 272/343/422 just isn’t that good for a platoon partner. A 765 OPS puts you between the Yankees and Angels in OPS for DHs (between 8-9), and right between Seattle and Minnesota for team OPS (9 and 10). Considering he has zilch in defensive value.

  32. eponymous coward said

    Oh, and to be clear, I would have been cool with Choo as well. A Choo/Raul sub in LF might be worth it because of the defensive upgrade.

    I just think if you’re going to cite Choo’s minor league #s as proof he can hit, ignoring Petagine’s much more impressive career overseas and in the minors (1000 minor league/J League OPS- knock off 200 points and that’s STILL an 800 OPS hitter) is a bit disingenuous. He’s probably a decent hitter, but on the Mike Hargove PH Every Other Week Plan, he gets almost no chance to show it.

  33. And Choo does have a future, once Snelling is healthy?

    He might. There is no sure bet whether he doesn’t and Petagine surely does not.

    The advantages of bringing Choo up far outweigh those that come with using Petagine as the lefty part of a DH platoon. Not even close.

    And in the piece, if you read it, you’ll note that the Choo idea is until Snelling is ready, and since he’s not yet, why wait it out with Everett for another month?

  34. From the Seattle P-I:

    Someone asked Sexson if he could pinpoint the reason for the Mariners’ extraordinary success in interleague play this season — Seattle is 10-2 against the National League.

    “I don’t know,” he said, then added with a grin: “It’s certainly not because our pitchers are hitting.”

    Hmm. Let’s see. In the games with the NL, we lose the DH. Who’s the M’s DH? Carl Everett. So when Carl Everett is benched, the M’s become a better team.

    Okay, okay. So we’ve only played, what, 6 games in an NL park without the DH. Still, there’s got to be something there :-0

    I may not hound Jason about it as much as Bedir/Dave does, but count me in with the DFA Carl crowd. Yeah, he might hit a third game-winning home run for the M’s in Safeco this year, but does that really make up for what he’s not bringing to the table every day???

    I have this weird sense, though, that they won’t let go of Carl until they let go of Hargrove.

    Any news on Snelling after his little baserunning scare yesterday? I doubt he’d be sent up to Seattle to rot on the bench, so again, as long as Carl’s here and Hargrove as well, there’s no room for Snelling. Unless Bavasi exercises his authority, of course (if he really has any…).

  35. MatthewCarruth said

    This team has been winning games playing in the NL where they don’t use the DH. Carl Everett has no impact there.

    Edman says:
    “Beady Eyes……it’s that kind of drivel that I can’t stand. Sulk? You determined this how? By watching a few camera shots in the dugout? Well, doesn’t that tell all.”

    Beady Eyes said before:
    “None of you saw the sulky Crazy Carl that I saw on Saturday. The man was sitting away from his teammates and occasionally would scan the stands. Since I was sitting next to the dugout (or close enough to make eye contact) his whole body language is basically ‘I hate this, I want to be someplace else.'”

    Guhhh. F’n READ people. It’s not difficult. Otherwise you are doing the world’s oxygen supply injustice by living.

  36. Beady Eyes said

    Edman: I was sitting right next to him in section 112 (I did say that, please read before putting words in my mouth)! I was so close to him that I made eye contact with him numerous times AND smiled at him. I said he was SITTING next to the camera banks and I was NEAR BY. The man SULKS. He BRAGS about it.

    And you know his leadership is all that? May I ask how YOU know this? Do you actually hang out in places none of us do? I am of the belief clubhouse leadership IS a myth. When we were hitting all those HRs, I never once saw Carl LEAVE his neat little perch in the far end of the dugout. Why is that? Doesn’t a leader put away his petty issues and become PART of the team?

    I have been sitting near the M’s dugout 4 out of the 6 games between the Dodgers and Mariners. Every day, Carl’s body language gets worse. Am I an expert? Not really. Are you? Unless you give us some insight, you are specualating as much as I and everybody else on the outside looking in.

    At the beginning of the year, I accepted Carl and thought MAYBE we had a guy who could still hit. I have been proven wrong.

  37. Beady Eyes said

    Thanks Matt. I am glad SOMEBODY is reading around here 😉

  38. Beady Eyes said

    Hey Edman:

    This Carl quote proves to me he is a very testy and bitter man:

    “I’m a professional, I can deal with it,” he said. “I had a feeling it would go like this when I got to play in the field once in a month in spring exhibition games. But whatever the perception is that I can no longer play defense, that is not my reality. I can still play in the field.”

    So how is this kind of thing good for the kids to hear? I mean it REEKS of a man who is putting his pride before the team.

    So again, since you decided to start this myth, please explain to me and the others HOW releasing Carl is going to hurt us so much?

  39. Beady Eyes said

    Jason:

    Say we trade Carl. Say we eat his contract in the process. What if he gets his 450 ABs with the new team. Are we on the hook for the option?

  40. Oh, and another question related to this thread. When do you man the chat room? Any time I open it up, it’s pretty empty.

  41. eponymous coward said

    The advantages of bringing Choo up far outweigh those that come with using Petagine as the lefty part of a DH platoon. Not even close.

    Really? So a minor league OPS that’s 150 points better (with many more at bats at a higher level of competition in Petagine’s favor to demonstrate their respective levels of ability), and a direct comp in AAA in 2005 that overwhelmingly favors Petagine’s performance is your definition of “not even close”? There’s not even a LITTLE room for argument there that in a year where the M’s are in a tight pennant race, they might want more performance and power at the plate as opposed to defense and speed, especially given how Mike Hargrove likes to use his baserunners?

    See, I have this stupid notion that if you’re going to use minor league stats to help evaluate hitters, there’s no reasonable way you can say Choo > Petagine on offense. It would be like arguing Jeremy Reed > Richie Sexson. So basically, what you have to argue is that Choo + gain in defense with Raul at DH against RHP (because Morse is an abortion in the OF and not an upgrade) > Petagine at DH. For a month.

    I simply think it’s a LOT closer than you think- and given playing a 24 year old for a month and then cooling his heels on the bench (“Thanks, but we’re ditching you for the OTHER guy in AAA”) and doing the same with a 34 year old, it’s not unreasonable that Petagine could do his best Bucky Jacobsen impression for a month while you’re waiting for Snelling to show up, and simply be happy to be here.

    But really, show me why the defense+speed is going to outweigh the offensive difference, and I’m all ears. I’m more than happy to change my opinion, and I do think it’s a legitimate argument, but blanket assertions that fly in the face of strong evidence of who’s the better offensive player right now don’t impress me.

  42. No, Beady, the new team would be on the hook.

    I don’t “man” the chat room at all.

    It’s there if people want to use it, and I’d gladly head in for chats regularly, so if there are those who would like regularly scheduled chats, I’d be open for that.

    Maybe… every Monday night, or something? That’s usually a day when I get most of my info, so…

  43. EC –

    You are missing the two major points, with a third not far behind.

    Using Choo for five weeks, than Snelling, over Everett versus RHP, or Petagine, does the following.

    The offensive production doesn’t drop a ton, though the power will take a hit because Choo isn’t ready to drop 450 SLG #’s in the bigs.

    While Petagine would certainly out hit Choo, particularly against RHP, he doesn’t give the club any flexibility defensively since all he can do is DH and play first.

    Choo would allow Raul to DH some, improving the left field defense. And do NOT underestimate how critical left field defense is at the spacious Safeco Field. Ibanez is hurting the M’s pretty badly out there… not because he’s making a lot of mistakes, but because he’s making the occasional mistake and has below average range, to boot.

    It’s compounded by the fact that Safeco’s left and left-center field areas are enormous.

    Using Petagine instead makes no sense BEYOND 2006, while using Choo DOES, beyond your comprehension, clearly.

    Choo is a young player with a chance to become a regular in the big leagues. It doesn’t matter that it’s not very likely to happen for him HERE. The value he could build by playing well in the big leagues is better for the team than the difference between he and Petagine at the plate.

    And, if you are starting Petagine, you don’t have a bat on the bench worth a damn, not that Grover is smart enough to use it. But that’s a fact.

    Btw, EP, nobody here is trying to impress you.  I could not care less what you think.
    So take your snide remarks elsewhere. They aren’t welcome here. You can believe what you want and disagree all you want. But getting snippy won’t fly.

    So let me direct you to a place where that may be appreciated…

    I hear MarinersRevolution is looking for help.

  44. eknpdx said

    Who can we trade Carl to? Does anyone know the teams on his no trade list?

  45. Willmore said

    Jason, Choo’s value will not rise in the majors, it might fall. for 30 days before the deadline, if we are able to trade Everett ASAP, why not try to play Petagine and raise HIS trade value to an NL club that needs a bat off the bench or an AL club that needs a solid DH ?

    Snelling will benefit by resting his knee as much as possible in Tacoma until the deadline and Choo’s 30 days in the majors does nothig to impact his future at the club, if he has any. While Petagine DHing most of the time might actually help them win. And in a platoon with Morse, the DH spot can give the Ms a .900+ OPS platoon for a month. Isn’t that Exactly what we have been missing to be a good team, besides the pitching ?

    When Snelling is healthy he’ll take over Petagine’s spot and will switch with Ibanez periodically. If Petagine is still on the roster, he can pine out the year on the bench, I don’t care. But if his presence in the lineup over Choo can win us 3-4 games, I’m all for it.

    Choo gains almost nothing in the majors. His trade value is not very high as it is, and nothing short of a Morse-like start will raise it.

    Petagine might be a commodity, let’s try to maximize our free agent signing by trading them for prospects.

  46. Willmore said

    Everett doesn’t have a no-trade clause.

    Oh, and Jason, if you know a way of getting it, could you find out Petagine’s splits vs. righties last year ? Just out of curiousity.

  47. JH said

    Edman:

    The Chicago White Sox won the world series in 2005. They got rid of Everett. They’re still one of the two best teams in the AL, despite the absence of Crazy Carl. Jim Thome is a better hitter, and nobody’s performance seems to be slipping because they’re teary-eyed over Everett’s absence.

    The 2001 Ms had a dynamite offense. It was sweet. Replacing David Bell or Al Martin with a 3B or LF who could hit still would’ve improved the team, even though what they had was working.

    The 2001-2003 teams were good, but they all could have used upgrades at certain weak positions. The Ms didn’t make the necessary moves, and the team didn’t make the waves in the postseason that we would’ve liked (and didn’t even get there twice).

    This team isn’t as good as those teams. If EVERYTHING broke right, the Ms have a shot at winning the division with the current team. This is not a surefire contender, or a world series caliber team. To think that one good month puts this team beyond talk of upgrading at positions where players are underperforming is just weird.

    It’s the contenders who buy at the trade deadline to turn solid teams into good ones. “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” tends to mean Seattle fans won’t be watching baseball in October.

  48. eknpdx said

    He doesn’t? I remember a discussion on it when he was first signed this offseason. That’s interesting, sinc he could be traded to another team as a contract dump swap.

  49. Ooh sweet. Looks like Tillman signed. Twelve of the top 13 picks have so far. Yay for signability!

  50. Edman said

    Let’s be clear, I’ve stated before that the Mariners will need to make a couple of moves to win the division. Carl Everett’s spot, isn’t even close to the priority…..which is replacing Pineiro with a legitimate starter, such as Schmidt.

    And, I have NO PROBLEM upgrading the DH position, as long as you don’t include SNELLING or CHOO in said upgrade. If you are going to upgrade that position, you can’t take a chance on an unproven player. You go get a legitmate bat to throw in there…..I’m fine with it. But, shoving a rookie, particularly one that’s not even a ML TOP 25 prospect, doesn’t fly.

    You eliminate question marks…..not add to the ones you already have.

  51. eponymous coward said

    “beyond your comprehension”

    Beg pardon, but remind me, who’s being snide and snippy? Defensive much? Good grief. I’m saying “this might be something reasonable people could disagree about”, and suddenly I’m not welcome. Oooookay…

    Allow me to quote myself:

    “But really, show me why the defense+speed is going to outweigh the offensive difference, and I’m all ears.”

    Boy, that’s being awfully closed minded about that speed and defense issue, huh.

    Your point about post-2006 is certainly valid, but

    – If Petagine > Choo in 2006, yes, the difference between that in a tight race is, quite possibly, a ring. Just sayin’.

    – Choo’s fairly close to the free talent/replacement level talent border as it stands (I’d say his skillset is close to Matt Lawton’s as of now, for instance, who was free talent, with maybe better D skills). Don’t know if he’d fetch a lot (I could see him in a package)- but maybe I’m wrong. He does seem to be in the Podsednik/Ibañez/Termel Sledge/Jamal Strong class of guys who are likely to get shafted for playing time as an M for various reasons, but might make useful MLB players.

    And yeah, I think a good bat producing at DH > good bat on the One PH Appearance A Week plan. If Hargrove is incapable of using a good offensive player except as a starter (which seems to be the case), fine, give him a bench stuffed with Bloomquists and Gipsons to use as PRs and defensive subs and 9 guys who can rake, or fire his ass and come up with a REAL manager. Earl Weaver and Lou were capable of this. Maybe it’s a lost skill or something.

    In all deadly sincerity, I don’t get why “I’m not sure I buy your argument, though I concede you might have a point” translates to “You suck” here…but whatever, I’ll keep it in mind and post elsewhere from now on, I guess.

  52. Willmore, you are so far off base i dont even know where to start.

    Choo’s value will no drop simply because he doesn;t dupe his minor league numbers with the M’s.

    What he can do is prove he can handle some big league arms while showing off his defensive value.

    He’s not a blue chip guy to lead a trade for an impact player, but he can only build to his value by playing in the majors.

    Petagine’s splits:
    vs RHP in International League – .340/15 HR in 197 AB
    vs. LHP in International League – .290/5 HR in 69 AB

    There’s not much doubt Petagine is a better hitter right now than Choo, but he can’t play left and that leaves Raul out there everyday and we’re only talking about a month’s worth of games.

  53. EC,

    Just stop with the snippy remarks. I didn’t even say you were WRONG, and I certainly didn’t tell you that you were way off base, like I do Willmore all the time.

    I just disagree, strongly, as you disagree with my conclusion. If it were for more than a month, I’d be all over Petagine or the addition of a veteran bat, because Everett is hurting the club offensively right now.

    Snelling is the answer, but he’s not ready yet, so instead of waiting another 5 weeks until he is, use someone else.

    Choo makes a lot of sense, and while Petagine makes sense, too, certainly more than Everett, the advantages of Petagine succeeding are grossly trumped by the upside Choo brings.

    I think we also disagree on how good Petagine might be with regular ABs. He’s be better than Everett, but i certainly don’t see that difference being significant.

    Another thing I don’t understand is why Grover won’t sit Everett versus a RHP once in awhile to give Petagine a shot.

    He can’t possibly be worse.

  54. Willmore said

    Because Grover is an idiot. I think we can all agree on that.

  55. eponymous coward said

    OK, I can work with “reasonable people disagree”. I like to THINK I’m reasonable and open to having my mind changed by evidence, or at least go “OK, I can see why you’d think that”.

    And tone is awfully hard to impart across the Internet.

    Like I said, I could see going with Choo instead of Petagine as a reasonable response to Waiting For Snelling. And God knows either of them trump Everett, who’s just terrible and needs to go- he offers neither the bat of Petagine nor any defense or speed.

    Really, I think Petagine is probably in the long list of Guys Who Can Rake But Didn’t Get A Shot For Whatever Reason: somewhere between Bucky and Ken Phelps. The OBP and SLG sure seem to say that. Is he more than a stopgap? Not really.

    (And if you look on USSM comments a few months back, you’ll see where I argued for playing a platoon of Choo and Morse in LF instead of Everett at DH. So really, we don’t disagree as much as you think.)

  56. The - 06- Take said

    I definitely know about Dice-K ^o^ and I’d certainly rather have him than Schmidt. No question about it.

  57. The - 06- Take said

    So JAC, what do you think of our chances of winning the bidding rights to Matsuzaka? I’m confident that Mr. Yamauchi will front us the cash for the rights to sign him, but I’m concerned about the Yankees. Steinbrenner has a lot of interest in him too and he’s been public about going overboard to win his rights. Do you think we can outbid the boss? Right now, I think it’s about 50/50 between us and the Yanks.

    Nobody knows how ecstatic I’d be about getting that guy. What a phenominal pitcher he is…

  58. Bucky would have gotten a shot had he been able to nurse his knee back to health, but he was indeed wasted away for years prior.

    The key thing about Petagine is that he isn’t just a slugger…

    If he was in AAA getting regular ABs, he’d have nasty numbers.

    He’d probably be able to slug .450 in the big leagues, albeit with some strikeouts and no other value whatsoever… but that sounds like a DH to me.

  59. JH said

    The Atlanta Braves used 13 rookies to hold onto their division lead last year, only two of whom appeared anywhere near a top prospect list.

    Oakland got key contributions from rookies well outside anybody’s top-25 list and stayed in contention until the last week of last season. When their proven closer went down, a rookie came in and immediately became one of the best players in the AL.

    Game 7 of the 2002 World Series was won by a rookie.

    The 1995 Yankees likely would have beat the Ms in the ALDS if they’d left their rookie in to pitch the bottom of the 9th, and not their “proven closer” whose stuff didn’t hold a candle to that of the unproven kid’s.

    There’s no way in hell Morse won’t outperform Everett vs. lefties. .169/.258/.288 is absolutely horrible. Morse hit .272/.352/.395 in limited time against lefties last year, and at worst can probably be counted on for a .250/.280/.350 line against them. Over the course of the rest of the year that’s about a 5-8 run improvement under the most pessimistic scenario.

    If he stays healthy, Chris Snelling will be a better hitter than Carl Everett, both this year and in 2007. Shin-Soo Choo’s got a reasonable chance to match Everett’s production against righties, while both adding defensive value and keeping Everett’s option from vesting for 2007, holding the spot open for Snelling.

    I know you tend to reject the idea of counting on performance from younger players, but that’s the way teams win. There isn’t some veteran mystique that always makes the older player more valuable. In fact, it’s quite the opposite: far too often teams keep older players far too long hoping they can regain their past form rather than going with cheaper, more effective options. Every year there are dozens of quad-A veterans and waiver-wire pickups who can outperform major leaguers like Carl Everett.

    Everett’s currently sitting at .244/.321/.384. I know you’re not crazy about stats, but you asked if he’s the worst DH in the league: according to VORP, Everett’s by far the worst AL DH with at least 200 plate appearances. The only players who’ve logged any time at DH who rank lower than Everett are Phil Nevin (.216/.307/.415), Mike Sweeney (.176/.313/.309), Dmitri Young (.169/.222/.220), and Rondell White (.182/.209/.215).

    Again those are the ONLY PLAYERS WHO’VE PLAYED DH AND HAVE HIT WORSE THAN EVERETT. Your point about adding question marks and unproven players would make more sense if Everett was passable, but I don’t think you quite understand how bad he’s been. Keep in mind, Safeco actually INFLATES the HR totals of lefthanded pull hitters. He’s slugging under .400 despite getting 75% of his home ABs in a favorable hitting environment.

    Overall, he’s returned less value to the team as a DH than Omar Infante, Justin Huber, Mike Morse, and Jason Botts. He’s a below league-average bat at the position which is supposed to yeild one of the highest offensive returns.

    If that isn’t a high-priority upgrade situation for a team struggling to contend I don’t know what is.

    Between Morse, Choo, Petagine, Snelling, and the waiver wire, the Ms can easily replace Everett’s production vs. righties, and improve his production vs. lefties without trading away the future. Dropping Everett will improve the team this year and next year while saving a few million dollars to use towards signing valuable players in the offseason.

  60. I know NYY, NYM, LAD, LAA and Boston will all be interested in DM at some level.

    The thing about the bidding process is, it’s not 100% on the up and up.

    You think it was simply the M’s out-bidding everyone for Ichiro’s services? It wasn’t.

    Also, winning the bidding doesn’t guarantee that the team will sign the player, so the player’s preference is taken into consideration here, even though the system was not designed to allow such a thing.

    Either way, I think the Mariners have advantages that nobody else has, along with some of the same advantages that NY does.

    Seattle can offer a diverse community, as can most larger cities on either coast. They can also offer a Japanese teammates or two and a history of good relations with the Japanese players.

    As can NYY…

    But, can the Yankees offer these…?

    1. Japanese owner
    2. Japanese catcher
    3. Smaller market that bares far less pressure to perform and virtually no hell to pay when one struggles.
    4. A great pitcher’s park

    NYY can’t offer any of that, even if they tried, though Yankee Stadium isn’t a bad place to pitch.

    The Yankees have their tradition and history to offer, and a chance to win sooner, but that doesn’t seem to lure most of the Japanese players.

    Having Johjima is a huge advantage and the money will be great no matter what.

    The Yankees poor experience with Irabu certainly can’t help, either.

    I would put the Mariners as the early favorites to land Matsuzaka should he be posted.

  61. Beady Eyes said

    Edman:

    You want Schmidt, but who the heck will you have to trade to get him? Choo, Snelling and a few others most likely.

    I personally do not think we need a 34 year old, oft-injured local boy rent-a-player.

    BTW, my responses to you are always with all due respect, even if it seems i am arguing your points.

  62. The - 06- Take said

    Oh I definitely agree that there will be more teams willing to pay for Matsuzaka’s services. I just believe that us and the Yankees have the best chance at him. I don’t remember a ton of details on the Ichiro bidding war, but I do remember that Ichiro said that he’d only sign with a team that has a legit chance at winning a World Series, and is in a city with a good-sized Japanese community. But that’s all Ichiro really could have done. He wanted to come to the Majors bad enough that had, say, the Mets won the bidding war, I think he would have signed with them since they met his criteria.

    I know that buying the rights to signing Matsuzaka doesn’t necessarily guarentee he won’t sign, but I think he wants to come to the Majors bad enough that if the team that wins match his criteria, he’ll sign with them, just like Ichiro did. So if Matsuzaka can’t specifically pick which team he’d like to be with the most, what difference does it make that we have things the Yankees don’t have?

  63. StandinPat said

    Even if Matsuzaka is willing to play almost anywhere, you know the M’s will be among the top bidders, and willing to give him a solid contract, so why wouldnt he want to be a Mariner? If he’d prefer to play in Seattle, whether it be because of our track record with Japanese players, having Johjima, or our extreme pitchers park, you dont think the M’s will do what they need to to get him?

  64. The - 06- Take said

    I think we’ll try (very, very hard), but our biggest competetor is Steinbrenner and when Steinbrenner wants something, he’s willing to throw endless amounts of cash to get it. But with Mr. Yamauchi’s desire to bring NPB superstars to this team, I think he’ll front us the money to overbid as well — just like he did with Ichiro.

    Personally, the way I look at it is this. It costs $11-12m or more per year for four or five years to bring in a TOR pitcher on the free agent market. That’s $44-60m total. We bought Ichiro’s rights with a $13m bid, and it cost us an extra $16m. That’s $29m for three years, which is $16-30m less than a TOR free agent. Now I know that this is six years later and prices have gone up since then and pitching talent equalling position player talent costs more.

    But still, did the price go up 16 to 30 million dollars? We need Dice-K, and grossly overpaying for him is still cheaper than injury prone and aging Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito who will be way, way overpaid for what he contributes to a ballclub. And it’s not like we’re sacrificing talent here. In fact, I think we’d be getting even more talent if we went for Matsuzaka.

  65. StandinPat said

    Plus no draft pick compensation for Matzusaka.

  66. johnb said

    Everett needs to go, but I don’t see the M’s doing it anytime soon even though it makes sense.

  67. I know that buying the rights to signing Matsuzaka doesn’t necessarily guarentee he won’t sign, but I think he wants to come to the Majors bad enough that if the team that wins match his criteria, he’ll sign with them, just like Ichiro did. So if Matsuzaka can’t specifically pick which team he’d like to be with the most, what difference does it make that we have things the Yankees don’t have?

    Because if he WANTS to go to team A but team b, c and d are making a lot of big noise about bidding heavily for him, he and his agent would be idiots not to toss out his desires and push away the other clubs – much like the draft.

    It worked with Ichiro, because the Yankees low-balled their bid. The M’s bid was more than twice the Yankees bid and NYY knew the M’s and Dodgers were willing go over 10 mil.

    So it does happen and will probably go that way with DM.

    So the Mariners may very well have an advantage with him because of the advantages they offer a Japanese pitcher.

  68. The - 06- Take said

    I knew the effect could push *some* teams away, but can Matsuzaka really pinpoint which team he wants to go to?

    On a related matter, how much do you think it’s going to take to win Matsuzaka’s signing rights?

  69. Replacement Level Poster said

    Well, DM can tell his club, “I’m only signing with the Mariners”. If the money is close between the Yankees and the Mariners his club might be more willing to take the Mariner’s money, since if they took the Yankees money and DM doesn’t sign, his club would have to refund it to the Yankees.

    If DM doesn’t sign with whatever team wins the posting rights, his club doesn’t make any money.

  70. Unless it’s changed since 2003, DM can not sign and Seibu still gets the posting fee. Only if he returns to Japan does the posting fee get refunded.

  71. Replacement Level Poster said

    Well, if he doesn’t sign with the team that wins his rights, he’d most likely go back to Japan right? I mean he can’t sign with any other MLB team other than the one that won the rights.

    Let’s say the Yankees won the posting rights, he refused to sign with them, then Seibu said “No way, we aren’t taking you back, we’re keeping the Yankees money!”. What would happen at that point?

  72. He could sit out. But the mere threat of that, or the draft-style rumblings of asking prices and such, can easily push him to the team he wants to go to.

    He’s only 26 this fall and say the deal is for three years… does anyone want a player for three years making a ton of cash that truly doesnt want to be there?

  73. willmore2000 said

    Jason, while I don’t like the idea much, is Baek pitching himself into a call-up to replace Pinata ? Though it might be mildly amusing to hear something like “Baek Baek Baek Baek Gone !” every time he is taken deep.

  74. willmore2000 said

    Jason, while I understand most of your All-star choices, I can’t help but think that there was some homerism with selecting Ibanez over, say, Gary Matthews Jr. GM is better than Ibanez in the major batting categories, the only one he is behind is RBI and HR. Yet with less homers, he is sluggin .542 and a great .381 OBP. Some might say that he is playing in an amazingly friendly home park. Yet he is actually better on the road – .882 OPS vs. .960. Speaking of OPS, GM is better than Ibanez by 136 points, with the 7th OPS among outfielders in the AL. Ibanez, meanwhile, ranks 13th.

    While a lot has to be said about Ibanez’ value to the ballclub and his raised expectations and value by batting 3rd and 4th this year, as well as a needed reward for a career year, yet we mustn’t be clouded into thinking that Ibanez is a better or more deserving all-star than players who are having better years.

  75. Jerry said

    Wow, this is a pretty heated thread.

    I am short on time, but I would cast my vote (which is worth nothing) on the Choo/Morse/Ibanez setup in LF/DH, with Ibanez playing pretty much every day at one of those two spots. The advantages have been pretty clearly outlined by Jason and others. With this setup, the M’s could afford to give Petagine more playing time as well, but he is best being a bench guy more often than not.

    But the way that Snelling is playing right now, this whole debate could become a moot point. Snelling is raking right now, and could come up real soon.

    By the way, is there anyone on this blog who is more consistently wrong than Edman?

  76. MT said

    JAC, on your all star team you forgot to put JJ Putz. I think he’s also very much deserving. 🙂

  77. Willmore said

    Petagine is a bad pinch hitter. He simply does not have the mentality or the ability to hit once every 2 weeks. It’s probably Hargrove’s fault, but still. Petagine has never been an outstanding pinch hitter, he has always been at his best as a regular player, whether in the minors or in Japan. Look at him this year. He was great in spring training, playing regularly and getting 2-3 at bat per start, that translated into the first few weeks of the season, when he still had whatever practice he had left from the ST. Now, that’s long gone and he is just plain horrible when pinch hitting.

    For Petagine, it is either a DH job with at least 60% of the at bats, or just stay on the bench the rest of the season. I couldn’t care less about him, he’s a journeyman I have no attachment to, so if he stays on the bench, I don’t particularly care, but still, him playing could make some difference.

    I understand the Choo points, I just think that they are minor. Hargrove can not be expected to follow common sense. He will be just as likely to stick Choo on the bench and play Morse at DH regularly. No logic in it, but you can’t say he won’t do it. I’m open to trying to see if Choo can handle the big leagues, but Choo will be here after the deadline, more likely than not. And in a September callup, he’ll be able to show his stuff, maybe sooner, who knows. Petagine, with a good month of baseball, could earn himself a trade to a team that needs him as a DH. I can tell you that the Twins wouldn’t mind some production at the DH spot.

  78. Willmore said

    Putz is deserving, but he’s not better than those other guys.

    Jenks is the closest, but even he is outperforming Putz, through more appearances and on a winning team too.

    Rivera is a stud … again.

    Papelbon is the popular new kid on the block.

    Ryan is lights out.

    Nathan is great.

    We might know Putz is great, but even we can’t be presumtious enough to rank his 12 saves against those other guys. Maybe next year.

  79. AK1984 said

    At this point in time, the Seattle Mariners should waive Carl Everett (2006 Salary: $3,400,000 & 2007 Buyout: $600,000) for the purpose of giving him his unconditional release and recall outfielder Shin-Soo Choo from the Tacoma Rainiers.

    Rather than platoon Roberto Petagine and Mike Morse at designated hitter, however, the M’s should attempt to acquire Craig Wilson (RHP: .264/.339/.466 & LHP: .290/.389/.565) from the Pittsburgh Pirates for the defensively inept Morse (Career Range Factor In Left Field: 1.66 & Career Zone Rating in Left Field: .733) and a mid-level minor league prospect (e.g., Renee Cortez).
    Link1 Link2

    As it is, Wilson is in the last year of his contract and has a salary of $3,300,000 for this season. In addition, the arrival of Wilson would allow Raul Ibañez to move to designated hitter, as Wilson would play left field.

    Lastly, the M’s should designate Petagine (2006 Salary: $450,000) for assingment and recall designated hitter Chris Snelling from the Rainiers. If all of the aforementioned transactions occurred, then the M’s lineup and bench would most likely be the following:

    LINEUP
    RF: Ichiro Suzuki
    3B: Adrian Beltre
    2B: Jose Lopez
    DH: Raul Ibañez
    1B: Richie Sexson
    LF: Craig Wilson
    C: Kenji Johjima
    CF: Jeremy Reed
    SS: Yuniesky Betancourt
    BENCH
    C: Rene Rivera
    INF: Willie Bloomquist
    OF: Shin-Soo Choo
    DH: Chris Snelling

  80. StandinPat said

    Why trade for Wilson, and then callup Snelling? If and when Snelling comes up, it needs to be so he can play almost everyday.

  81. The Mariners have no interest in Wilson at all, and shouldn’t. He’s not all that good to begin with, will cost at least one player the M’s would rather not lose (Cortez and Morse wouldn’t get it done, Wilson would be enduring a league change and he SUCKS in left field.

    Yes, he SUCKS int he outfield — no range at all, a lot like Raul Ibanez.

  82. eknpdx said

    And finally the limitations of roster improvement are discussed. There are only two positions that can be upgraded offensively:

    DH(or LH, whichever Ibanez is not playing) and CF

    All the other positions are pretty much set in stone (pending the dumping of a Beltre contract).

    So if the plans are for Snelling to be in the line up, then techincally, we have no space to add another impact bat – unless we upgrade offensively from Reed. I just don’t see any scenario that goes outside of the ballclub to upgrade the offense.

    I think we all agree that in order for any of this to happen, Grover cannot be given too much of a choice from his bench to replace Everett’s bat in the line up.

  83. StandinPat said

    I think Snelling over Everett will be quite an upgrade offensively, plus his ability to play left from time to time will be an upgrade defensively when he is out there.

    I doubt the M’s would go after a CF with Jones not that far away and Reed atleast adequate. Unlikely still, but would def be an upgrade would be for Ichiro to slide over to CF and bring up Snelling for LF, and possibly use Choo or aquired bat in RF, while Ibanez slides to DH.

  84. AK1984 said

    “The Mariners have no interest in Wilson at all, and shouldn’t. He’s not all that good to begin with, will cost at least one player the M’s would rather not lose […] Cortez and Morse wouldn’t get it done […]”

    Okay, I can understand the likelihood that the Seattle Mariners would neither want Craig Wilson, nor would they want to give up players who the Pittsburgh Pirates would want in return for Wilson.

    “Yes, he [Craig Wilson] SUCKS int he [sic] outfield — no range at all, a lot like Raul Ibanez.”

    Yeah, Wilson (Career Range Factor In Left Field: 1.76 & Career Zone Rating in Left Field: .756) is a remarkably worse left fielder than Raul Ibañez (Career Range Factor In Left Field: 2.16 & Career Zone Rating in Left Field: .881).

    Anyway, a platoon of Mike Morse agaist left-handed pitchers and Chris Snelling against right-handed pitchers at designated hitter — with Snelling playing left field and Ibañez being the designated hitter against right-handed pitchers — would be way more productive than Carl Everett has been so far this season.

    In the end, ultimately, all of us ought to agree on that abovementioned decipherment.

  85. Snelling hits lefties very well, btw. Wouldn’t have to platoon him.

  86. Willmore said

    Actually, I would want both Ibanez and Snelling playing full-time, splitting DH and LF jobs, as their health allows. Morse is a bench player.

  87. JasonAChurchill said

    I think that nails it on the head, Willmore.

    They are the best two bats of the group available.

  88. StandinPat said

    Is Everett even a candidate to net anything in trade? Or are we just gonna have to DFA him?

  89. JasonAChurchill said

    He’s a DFA/pay his whole salary, or close to it, and someone might give youan A ball reliever type guy.

  90. StandinPat said

    Jason,

    Does Snelling look like he is close to being back in form? And if not about how much longer do you think he needs at Tacoma before he is def an upgrade over Everett?

  91. willmore2000 said

    Snelling was an upgrade over Everett the second he came off the DL. At this point, it’s just taking it safe with him, giving him as many at bat he can take, while still saving his knee. In the majors, he’ll be expected to contribute every day.

  92. Snelling looks about 75% of where he was last year when the M’s called him up. Maybe 80%.

    He’s an upgrade TODAY.

  93. willmore2000 said

    Da fei, Da fei, Da Fei is on Fire !

    7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BBs, 11 SO, 1 HR.

    That is sick !!!

  94. willmore2000 said

    And Wilson is just crushing any competition put in fron of him. If he goes on like that, shouldn’t he become the callup to replace Snelling in AAA, once he is up ? All due respect to Wlad, but Wlad will be crushed by AAA pitching. Wilson, on the other hand, I don’t know. He just might be the breakout hitter we desperately need in this system.

  95. willmore2000 said

    I don’t care what Beltre is doing in the majors, these kids pump me up. Kind of fills you with hope.

  96. Yes, if Wilson keeps this up, he probably would make more sense than Wlad, though they won’t need anyone from AA to replace a Snelling or Choo callup. TJ Bohn is due of the DL soon.

    But yes, Wilson is tearing the cover off the ball and he’s not striking out so far.

    Re: Feierabend

    Ended up with 8ip and 3H allowed to go with 11 K. Nasty.

  97. willmore2000 said

    Indeed. If you can get a hold of his pitching coach, can you ask what he attributes this recent streak of incredible and consistent pitching. Prior to this, he was more or less hit and miss from start to start, what happened ?

  98. I can answer that from talking with roving pitching coordinator Pat Rice… Maturity. He’s just starting to mature, both physically and mentally. He’s just 20 and it’s all coming together.

  99. willmore2000 said

    I can buy that, though something along the lines of a mechanical tweak would be more believable. Still, if he gets to the level of Blackley or Livingston in terms of mental toughness, we’ll have one hell of a pitcher. This makes me think, could Blackley take Feierabend in, and mentor him a bit in that department ? Not sure if it’s the type of thing that Fei would respond to, or Blackley would be willing/wanting to do, but it could really help Fei be a top prospect in the system.

  100. dude, pitchers are constantly tweaking stuff, but one small tweak doesn’t make a kid start to pitch SMARTER.

  101. willmore2000 said

    You can’t judge that from the box scores, so I’ll trust the pitching coordinator on that.

  102. He’s just learning a ton and it’s starting to show up in the results.

    I will be doing a P-I piece on Ryan soon, and I’ll get some good stuff on him from Rice and Holman.

  103. willmore2000 said

    Cool. By the way, there haven’t been a lot of those prospect spotlights here in a while. How about one on the young kids in Everett or on the likes of Wilson, who have shot up this season ?

  104. Mike Wilson is a good one… I’ll get going on that… let’s shoot for Friday on that one, eh?

    After I see Lo play, I’ll get one together on him, too.

  105. willmore2000 said

    Cool. The more of these there are, the better.

  106. you like those, Willmore?

    I haven’t got much feedback on them and I usually only do them when I get a request…

  107. StandinPat said

    So…should Johima take one off the knee every night?

  108. StandinPat said

    Jason,

    I think those of us that are even semi-interested in Wilson, are very interested in the M’s farm system and therefore would love any info on any prospect you can give us. I cant speak for everyone else, but I am on these boards cause Im info hungry on what the future of the M’s might be. I think a write up on any player could be valuable, just look at a guy like JJ Putz, he was never a top prospect but is now a top MLB reliever. Anybody who might help the M’s, I want to hear about three years in advance and get overly excited about. Can you blame me?

  109. haha, not at all, Pat.

    Which i why I take requests on it. I told a scout the other day “don’t be surprised if i’m calling you about some nobody like Josh Womack or Alex Gary one day, because if enough people asked, I’d have to get one together one either.”

  110. MatthewCarruth said

    Lo has 6 SBs in 8 games. Dude has speed or is it just easy to steal in low A?

  111. Knuckles said

    Jason: As you know from the other board, I’m very interested in any of the pieces you put up. I may not comment much, but anything on any prospect (and yes, Lo is a great idea) is always welcome.

  112. willmore2000 said

    Yeah, the more info you give us, the happier we are. And you don’t want to see us angry 🙂

  113. StandinPat said

    Love to see Graterol and Jeffery Dominguez. SOunds like Dominguez is the better prospect, but Graterol was an all-star, but I still know very little about either one of these guys. Also what little info you have on our two pre-surgery draft picks Valvaro and Uhlmanesik would be bad ace. Im sure everyone has lots of players they want to hear about, maybe we could take a couple of suggestions then do a poll.

  114. StandinPat said

    Sorry i meant Garth not Gaterol. Im also really interested in your take on Gavin Dickey seems like he slipped because it wasnt likely he was gonna sign, then we got him inked pretty quickly and quietly.

  115. Willmore said

    Might be a wild idea, but what about:

    Sending Gil Meche to the Phillies and Good ‘ol Pat. In return we get something like Gio Gonzalez and/or Carlos Carrasco and/or Shane Victorino ?

    Victorino could be a good CF for us, while Reed is sent to Tacoma, Gio and Carlos are young, very good pitching prospects. Might be too much to ask, but it’s a Freddy Garcia-type trade. The Phillies refuse to enter a rebuilding mode, and Pat was never shy about raiding the farm system. He knows Gil, and knows his potential, and while he might also know Gil a little too well, he just might pull the trigger. The Phillies, with some good pitching, might still contend, and that might force them to overpay.

    It’s probably asking too much for just Gil, so maybe a throw-in prospect is also warranted.

    I know I’m 0-ever with trade ideas, but I though I’d throw it out there, see what you guys think.

  116. KB said

    JAC, just to throw in my two cents, if you’re going to write up Lo, it would be cool to also take a look at Dickey & Halman, since all 3 outfielders seem promising.

  117. JasonAChurchill said

    Dickey isn’t very interesting, but Halman will get his own spotlight, for sure.

    He has more upside than even Lo.

  118. Knuckles said

    Here’s a piece on Halman (and the other international newbies) from the Everett Herald:

  119. Knuckles said

  120. Knuckles said

    Halman at Herald

    Screw it. I tried the xhtml code, and it didn’t work. Here’s the link.

  121. Yeah, Halman has been an interest player since he signed.

  122. Knuckles said

    Thanks for fixing that, Jason. I appreciate it.

  123. Willmore said

    Yeah, I read that a couple days ago. Halman has been of interest for me primarily for his age and just his raw potential. If this guy can make, it … phew … I don’t even want to think about it.

  124. JH said

    In addition to Halman, I’d like to see a spotlight on Alex Liddi if you can dig up anything on him.

    His skill-set and frame remind me of Halman’s (same height, maybe a bit thicker, similar approach at the plate). Maybe even a prospect comparison if you can get anyone in Arizona to talk about their opinions of both of them?

  125. KB said

    I’m definately looking forward to hearing some eye-witness accounts of Halman.

    I’m also wondering where Kappel came from and how he projects.

  126. JH said

    Well, here’s one eyewitness account of Halman, having seen him 5 times now (3 times in Arizona, twice in Everett):

    First off, he’s huge. Like, really huge. I’m not sure he’s 6’4 as listed, but he’s way above the listed 192 lbs, and it’s all muscle.

    At the plate, his approach is very inconsistent. If he makes an out swinging at the first couple pitches in one at-bat, he’ll make a point of taking more the next time, only to get called out on strikes. He seems to be a bit unsure at the plate, leading to a tendency to overcompensate for what happened in his last at-bat.

    That will almost certainly improve with more ABs. Before last year, he was playing in the Dutch professional league. You can bet he never saw a truly quality breaking pitch before last year, and even then, the AZL’s level of competition isn’t going to challenge a hitter enough to learn adequate pitch recognition. On top of that, he’s the youngest hitter in the NWL (by about a week over Giants OF Thomas Neal). He’s a prototypical raw talent, and like Jason said, his ceiling is very, very high.

    Despite his relatively free-swinging ways, he makes decent contact. All that’s holding him back from being one of the NWL’s top bats is consistently improved pitch recognition (his next walk will be his first, and he’s susceptible to looking foolish on a quality breaking ball).

  127. willmore2000 said

    I heard Swisher on the radio today, and he said something to the extent that, if a prospect does not average at least 1 walk every 10 ABs, he can not advance to the next level. What do you guys think about that ? You can say what you will, but Oakland can sure develop offensive talent. And Swisher also said that he pretty much credits this system to his current on-base skills.

    Tui sure wouldn’t have made it far and Cabrera might be at AA right now.

  128. I dont buy that at all. There are a lot of guys that dont do that in the minors that have success in the bigs.

    Sure, you want your bats to be patient, draw walks, be selective and attack strikes only, but to say that 1 walk per 10 is NECESSARY is simply idiotic.

    Richie Sexson didn’t walk once per 10 AB in the minors… Griffey didn’t either.

    Miguel Cabrera, Jose Lopez, Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols are others who didn’t walk at least 1 time per 10 AB.

    The correct claim, by the way, should be 1 per 10 PA, because a walk isn’t an AB anyways and in that case, Miguel Tejada is among several other star offensive players did not accomplish the 1/10 feat as minor leaguers.

  129. Edgar Lin said

    Yung-Chi Chen got promotion to AA.

  130. Yeah, we knew that was coming Edgar. They wanted him to be able to play in the Cal-Carolina League All-Star Game.

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