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How Good Are The M’s? You Tell Me

Posted by Jason A. Churchill on June 28, 2006

I’m not going to write anything here, except to say that it’s exciting to watch the club play good baseball.

What I want to know is what all of you think. What do you believe? Is this club for real? Are they a good baseball team? Still mediocre? Average? Will they win the west? If they do, do they have a shot in hell to compete with Boston, New York, Chicago or Detroit in the playoffs?

What would it take to make them good enough to win the west? Compete in the postseason?

How good do all of you think the 2006 Seattle Mariners really are?

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80 Responses to “How Good Are The M’s? You Tell Me”

  1. Knuckles said

    We need to not have Joel Pineiro in our rotation, and if we could flip Meche for some useful pieces to a delusional GM at the deadline, that would help also. Carl Everett must be made to disappear as quickly as he does from the plate in one of his at bats. Chris Snelling needs to get healthy, and supplant Raul in LF. Nothing new or shocking, really. Oh, and fire Hargrove.

  2. MatthewCarruth said

    Exactly as good as I thought they were pre-season when I pegged them for….wait a second, looking it up, 83 wins.

    Yeah, 83 wins sounds about right. Maybe a few more since ANA is even worse than I predicted they would be.

  3. MatthewCarruth said

    I don’t see how trading Gil Meche at the deadline makes the 2006 Mariners better.

  4. Me neither, since they wouldn’t be getting a better starter in return and not a soul in the system can do better.

  5. johnb said

    Meche isn’t going anywhere.

    I always thought the team had a decent shot at .500, and now I think they can compete for the pennant, but smart money is till on the A’s.

  6. Seth said

    Honestly, I have gone on record as saying this team is horrible. But their play of late is starting to make me hope. The AL West is terrible, but the NL West is worst and the Mariners are tearing them apart. I feel kind of conflicted. I feel deep in my gut that this team is total trash, but I feel good about the M’s future, so I don’t want us to make a stupid deadline deal and give up good young players. I also still don’t like the people in charge of the team, Hargrove and Bavasi. I feel like I’m betraying the team but there are times when I’ve wished the Mariners would go on a prolonged losing streak to get those two out of the picture and help the future of the team. The feeling is almost a psudeo-Isiah Thomas situation. If I was I Knicks fan I’d cheer for the team to suck this year to get Isiah out for good. Despite all this I still cheer for every Mariner run and win.

    I’m so conflicted…I hate it.

  7. The M’s biggest problems are above the GM, I can guarantee you that.

    Bavasi maybe a mediocre GM, he sure isn’t GOOD, but replacing him will not fix anything until the puppetmasters are replaced, too.

  8. Shaunjohn said

    Jason, great website. I appreciate an expert’s point of view on baseball.

    Do you happen to know how Jesse Foppert’s velocity is coming along as of late? Is it back to what it was before Tommy John surgery? If not, what is it?

    Thanks

  9. Foppert has been out with what they are calling a hip injury, but I think it has a lot more to do with his elbow not being sound than anything.

    He hasn’t pitched since May 19, but he was sitting 87-89 at that point.

  10. willmore2000 said

    I’ll tell you August 1st.

    Meanwhile, I’m excited, but true belief is a ways away.

  11. Ron said

    Finally, the boppers are coming thru-tis what we paid for. They seem happpier on the screen and things seem to be jelling. M’s really need to tighten up the next couple of weeks then we’ll get some kinda of glimmer of what we have. Pitchers are doing average, hitters are doing above average which is winning us games and defense very good. I believe we have a team that is coming into their own (identification) a very good team. GO M’S. Whats up with Brandon?

  12. lyle said

    jason: do you have any idea when tillman and morrow will start pitching in peoria? and how long do you project their stays will be there and the teams they’re promoted to. i suppose that depends on how well they do, but still.

  13. mabalasek said

    I think the M’s, right now, are legitimate World Series contenders. They need only 3 games of 5 in the first round right? Then 4 of 7? Assuming that each time only runs 2 aces on their teams and the hitting could break through one of them, yeah, I think that is very doable for the M’s.

  14. lyle said

    mabalasek:

    seriously, let’s at least wait until they spend a couple of weeks playing decent american league teams before we start throwing around ‘contender’.

    don’t you agree?

  15. willmore2000 said

    Let him be delusional, can’t you see he’s happy ? Why spoil it for him ? Reality is overrated.

  16. Goose said

    Haha yeah.

    I think we all know in the back of our minds that this may not last. But for right now, we are on top of the baseball world. And goddamnit, after 2 years of misery, we deserve a little happiness.

    World Series contenders? Right now, you damn right!

  17. Kyle said

    Everything would have to break right for them to keep this going. To date:

    No major injuries. None. Nada.
    Sexson and Beltre struggling mightily, getting almost nothing from Reed.
    Betancourt been way better than advertised with the bat, doesn’t take enough walks to be stellar, but you can’t argue with what he’s doing in the 9 hole and with that glove, definitely an asset.
    Felix struggles early on in the season have ceased, he’s looking strong again.
    Guardado has blown several games on his own.
    Lopez and Ibanez are co-MVPs to this point.
    Putz has been the M’s closer I’ve desired for years, Soriano lights out. They’re the K-Rod and Shields of this team.

    Don’t look now, but Sexson and Beltre have both raised their OPS over 700, that’s out of Bloomquist territory.

    We’re a better team now than when we opened the season, without major roster changes.

    Although, schedule gets tough from here on out, so until we start knocking off some good teams, I can’t say I really believe it.

  18. NWBaseball said

    I predicted about 82-85 wins for this team and still stand by that. I’d like to see us get a replacement for Carl, probably Snelling. He’d make our defense and offense better. And we need another starter to replace Joel. I just don’t want to rape the farm to do it. This team is built for next year and beyond. Right now I’m just enjoying the ride!

  19. Katal said

    Right now the team is unbelievably hot. I don’t expect them to continue to consistently go on four and five game tears like they have been throughout this month. I fully expect Beltre, Sexson, and Johjima to significantly cool off.

    That said, the team right now is playing to its fullest potential. With the exception of Reed and Everett, every member of our offense has been dangerous, while our rotation has proven itself to be a group of solid, if not spectacular, #3 starters (I’d contend that Meche has been doing a little better than that, while Piniero a little worse, but hey, they balance out).

    The Mariners have a history of believing that one shouldn’t mess with success. Or maybe that was more Gillick’s philosophy. Let’s hope, because I believe that if the team wants to stay in contention throughout the rest of the season, they’re going to have to make a few moves to cover up their holes.

    I’d like to see Everett and Piniero traded for a bag of balls so that Snelling and either Cruceta or Livingston can get a shot – maybe they’re not “ready” for the bigs yet, but A) the Mariners have been aggressively pushing their kids through the minors lately, haven’t they?, and B) Snelling, Cruceta, and Livingston aren’t going to do any worse than the guys they’d be replacing.

    Is there a market for a solid CFer who not too long ago was a prodigy with the bat? If so I’d trade Reed for some bullpen help and promote Jones. Same reason as the above paragraph.

    Dr. D had an post at Detecto Vision a few days ago about the logjam that’s eventually going to occur in the Mariners’ infield, due to the talent we have in AAA. I’d say that one easy way to resolve this problem would be to push hard to trade for a TOR starter. Granted not many of these types are available, but if I were Bavasi I’d at least try to gauge just how much I’d have to give up for a Prior or a Schmidt. While we’d have a full rotation after dumping Piniero for Cruc or Bobby, an additional starter would help bear the burden for the formerly-injured (Meche), the old (Moyer), and the young (Felix).

  20. Knuckles said

    I’d like to flip Meche for a piece we can use, rather than use him up and discard him at the end of the season. That said, I don’t think we can flip him for anything worthwhile, so it’s probably not in our interest to do so. I am of the opinion that Blackley or Livingston would be worthy replacements for Meche or Pineiro at this point. But that’s just me.

  21. eknpdx said

    One starting pitcher, one bat, one better than Mateo/Green/Woods relief arm, and one better than Petagine bench bat/Bloomquist sub away from being a contender in the division. I think the general projection of the team’s success this year was .500 low end, and about 86 wins on the high end.

    Perception and reputation means a lot in everday life and in the private offices of MLB teams.

    If I’m another team looking to make a deal – specificallly a MLB player for prospects – I hear the reputation and perception of the M’s is that their farm has a couple of prospects who may be blue chippers in a year, while their close to MLB prospects are not bad, but have questions about their ceilings. I also know that the M’s are a financial model of success in the league, so they have the money to make a deal. So if I’m making a deal with the M’s, they better be willing to eat a contract, give up several prospects in the process (in order to increase the chance that I get a serviceable MLB player out of the deal).

    Whatever the deals are, you have to sell it to Howie and Chucky. That means a little more than just, “It will make the team win more.”

  22. slim said

    The current M’s are still an 85 win team. Not much has changed since the beginning of the year. They’re a bit more Jekyll and Hyde than I expected. But I don’t think this hot streak they’re on will last forever. If they can find a way to convert Everett, Pineiro, and Woods into an .800 OPS DH, a league average SP, and a reliable reliver, they could get to 90 wins and win the division.

  23. bennoj said

    I’m still in wait-and-see mode. I’d love to see upgrades in the rotation, bullpen and outfield/DH, but I don’t think we have anything at the AAA level that’s ready, and I’d rather not trade away the future. If we can get rid of spare parts for useful pieces, great. Otherwise, aside from dumping Everett (can we send him up to the Aquasox? There might be some kind of promotional benefit…) and bringing up Snelling, I’d stick with what we’ve got and see how it plays out over the next month as we play the Tigers and most of the teams from the AL East. June has been fun to watch, but we’re not playing the teams we have to beat in order to be taken seriously. Basically, I think that the M’s run through the NL West has just bought more time for Hargrove and/or Bavasi to keep their jobs. Whether it’s actually been meaningful is still to be seen.

  24. MatthewCarruth said

    They could get instantly 2 wins or so better by replacing Carl with a productive Snelling and Eddie/Woods with Fruto.

    There’s also the possibility of Cruceta over Pineiro as an improvement, though, I doubt, one of any signifigance.

  25. Willmore said

    Jason, was Jimenez’ 1-hitter a fluke or is he for real ? He’s walking way too many batters, and doesn’t strike out a ton, but he doesn’t give up homers. What’s his GB/FB stats ?

    In short, is he now a possible call-up to replace Pinero ?
    Where does he rank between Livingston, Cruceta and Blackley ?

  26. Buschleaguer said

    I think Beltre may have finally figured things out, Sexson I expect to be better from here on out and Pineiro is flat-out bad.

    My prescription:

    1) Snelling up for Everett. (Definite improvement)
    2) Jones up for Reed. (Couldn’t do worse)
    3) Trade Reed, Pineiro or Everett and as many others from Farm (Except Clement) as needed for a Solid-to-TOR Starter.
    4) Bring up the best bullpen arm from minors to strengthen pen.
    5) Maybe even bring up Clement in a month or so for Rivera/work him into the DH rotation to get at-bats also.
    6) Trade Guardado for prospects or a solid bench hero (try to showcase him in games that are already either well in, or out of hand.)

    That leaves us:

    RF Ichiro
    3B Beltre
    2B Lopez
    LF Ibanez
    1B Sexson
    C Johjima
    DH Snelling
    SS Betancourt
    CF Jones

    TOR/Solid pitcher from trade
    Moyer
    Felix
    Meche
    Washburn

    Putz
    Soriano
    Sherrill
    Mateo
    Two of the kids

    Bench
    LH Petagine
    RH Willie
    RH Morse
    LH Clement
    Bench hero from trade.

    I think that is a contender!

    Comments?

  27. re: Lyle

    Morrow may make a start or two in Peoria soon and then be sent to Inland Empire.

    Tillman is likely going to stay in Peoria all summer.

    re: Jimenez

    He’s not a ground ball machine but in San Antonio he posted a 2+ G/F rate. In Tacoma, however, it is pretty close to even.

    It’s clear, though, that he does much better when he gets ground balls – he had 14 last night.

    A scout recent told me Jimenez is a relief guy, though, and while he belongs in the minor league rotation so he can continue to develop his pitches, his stuff is best suited for the pen.

    When i brought up a velo problem, the scout said he’s fine when he’s coming in out of the pen because he raises his velocity in short stints.

    Cruceta, Baek, Livingston and Blackley all rank ahead of him, as does Feierabend in overall rankings. The first four are ahead of him for a callup. I don’t think the Mariners would call Jimenez up to start.

  28. MatthewCarruth said

    What about Adam Jones makes anyone think he deserves to be called up? Is it the 65:17 K:BB ratio? Is it his .315 OBP? His under 800 OPS? Hmm?

  29. Lord only knows, Matt.

    He’s been impressive, really impressive, but he’s nowhere near ready for the call.

    Calling up Jones would be grossly detrimental to his development. I’m thinking July 2007.

  30. Andrew said

    Buschleaguer,

    2) Jones up for Reed. (Couldn’t do worse)

    Jones is not ready to be in the majors. He needs to finish his time in AAA. If Reed doesn’t improve the rest of the year, then maybe we think about starting him in CF in ’07. I think best case he puts up something like .250/.300/.430 in the majors. He probably takes 300-400 at bats before he finally gets it. I doubt that he would outperform Reed on offense or defence this year. Plus you ruin the risk of stunting his future growth.

    Trade Reed, Pineiro or Everett and as many others from Farm (Except Clement) as needed for a Solid-to-TOR Starter.

    That’s not going to happen unless you mortgage the farm system, and we shouldn’t be doing that if we want to sustain winning. At best you hope to pick up a less sucky 5th starter. Think Jeff Weaver or Greg Maddux (yes at this point that’s what he is).

    Trade Guardado for prospects or a solid bench hero (try to showcase him in games that are already either well in, or out of hand.)

    Guardado has no value at this point. At best he’s a LOOGY. At worst he is a batting practice pitcher. Unless someone has no lefthander in their bullpen they aren’t going to want him. Best case scenerio you get a live arm from A ball.

  31. BTW, BuschLeaguer,

    You can’t have that bench because the backup catcher has to take up one of those spots.

  32. Fred said

    The starting nine look pretty good. But an injury or two among present position players could be calamitous.

    Putz and Soriano are lights out in the bullpen. Only Moyer and Felix, among starting pitchers, can be counted on for consistency. Meche is going well now but is unlikely to rise above .500. Pineiro got his big contract and has spent his time since experimenting with hair and beard styles and blaming his non-performance on critics. Washburn, unless he improves quickly, looks like a big-contract washout. Guardado should never have been given a contract this year—$6 million wasted.

    The bench may be better than we think. We do know, though, that the Everett contract was as big a waste as those given to Guardado and Washburn.

    Trades: There will be no present takers for Reed. He is waking up and there seems little option but to let him play and hope.

    Someone might be willing to go for Everett before the July 31 deadline but it is doubtful. If that does not happen, it will be best to dump both Everett and Guardado and eat their salaries. If they continue to play, they will lose games for the team in August and September. They have no future here.

    Bavasi, I fear, may not have a clue. This is the guy, remember, who saddled the Angels with Mo Vaughn’s monster contract. He brought us Aurilia and Spiezio, mysteriously rejected Vizquel after trading for him, cut Borchard from the roster after just acquiring him (while keeping Lawton and Petagine), and thought the Washburn, Guardado and Everett investments were winners. Beltre and Sexson appear to have come to life. But if they fall backward to earlier futiity, Bavasi must be nailed as the guy who gave them long contracts (for a quarter of the team’s total payroll).

    Bottom line: If the team keeps winning, just go with the present roster as far as it will carry the team, perhaps adding a veteran post-July 31. If it falls backward, clean house at the end of July and let Snelling, Baek, Cruceta et. al. get long opportunities on the field.

    Entering 2007, the team may need as many as four new starting pitchers. Time to prepare.

  33. Scott said

    Jason,

    I am glad I finally find your own blog.

    What’s your take on Nageotte at this point? You think they might move him back to the pen in the future? I saw him twice at Tacoma this year and cannot say I was too impressed with his control but I am no expert.

    Thanks.

  34. Beanball said

    I think they are contenders in the West. The Angels are too broken, the A’s are too injured and Texas is well, Texas. Three good starting pitchers a great back end to the bullpen and the lineup they have is going to win them some games. Hell winning the west really isn’t out of question at all. Of course they do still have Guargono, Pinata, Meateo, Everett, Bloomquist and are managed by the village idiot so maybe not.

    Unfortunatly they can’t compete with the top teams at all, nor do i believe they have any MLB level pieces that they can move for anything other than small role players and used equipment.

    GM 101 says don’t mess with a team in contention (and in the west they will be all year) so any call-ups to replace the above mentioned folks most likely won’t happen until they are finished so thats kind of a downer.

    In the end they are a .500 team that is a hot streak away from a nice finish or a cold spell away from under .500, which is better than the last 2 years……………..

    Is it too early to start the lets move to the NL movement?

  35. StandinPat said

    The M’s can definately contend in the West due to two main factors… 1) The rest of the west vastly underperforming, and 2) Several of our question marks have become big time contributors.

    Lopez and Betancourt have both produced way more than expected at the plate, but neither one necessarily looks like they are fluking either. Ichiro is back to being Ichiro and Ibanez is having a career year. Johjima might cool off a tad, but has been a huge boost to the offense considering we went from horrible hitting catchers int he 9 hole, the atleast an MLB avg hitter in the 7 hole from our catcher. Both Sexson and Beltre are heating up, but arent exactly playing out of their minds either. As far as the offense goes, we are scoring lots of runs, but without anyone really playing way over their head. I see the offense cooling down a touch, but still being good enough for the West.

    Other question marks surrounded the bullpen, where Putz, Soriano and Sherril have turned us into a 7 inning ball club. These three are as good of a back end as you’ll find the Majors, let alone the West. Felix has been so so early on, but is now pitching like he should, Meche appaers to have found so consitency, and Moyer is ageless.

    There are really only a couple of places we could upgrade, but I think each would make this team just that much better. Everett needs to go with SNelling replacing him. This improves an emerging offense and an already stellar defense. Piniero needs to be replaced, Cruceta and Livingston would both be improvements although I’d like an Armas Jr. Lastly we need atleast one more good bullpen arm that can be leaned on. Im very worried about Hargrove killing our dynamite three.

    All three of these moves are easily done, and easily improve the hottest team in the West right now! Can we take the west? Hellz Yeah!

  36. JasonAChurchill said

    Re: Nageotte

    I think he’s less than 100 percent but he won’t tell anyone that, but I also believe him when he says he’s like 5% of his pitches away from cutting his ERA 40%.

    He’ll have 1-2 bad innings where he can’t spot the two-seamer and is forced to throw a 91 mph four-seamer and those get poked around pretty good.

    The two-seam heater is still fairly new to him and it’s understandable that he’s having problems commanding it.

    He did so last year, too, in relief for 35 innings.

    I think he’s best used as a starter in the minors so he can work through stuff, but his immediate future in the bigs is in relief.

  37. JasonAChurchill said

    We have some really smart people posting here.

  38. StandinPat said

    And they are all sayin replace Everett with Snelling! Hopefully Bavasi peruses the prospect insider sometime soon.

  39. I’m sure Bavasi doesn’t even know what Prospect Insider is, but we sure as heck aren’t the only ones saying this and Bavasi doesn’t need us to tell him. I would be shocked if Bavasi didn’t see it the same way and we’ll see the proof in that this summer.

    But here’s something we all need to remember…

    What if the M’s DFA Everett and call up Snelling and Snelling gets hurt again and is out for the entire second half of the year?

    That’s a tougher decision to make when it’s Choo/Dobbs versus Everett, though you all already know how I feel about that.

  40. willmore2000 said

    Any platoon will be more productive than Everett by himself. Whether it’s Choo/Morse, Petagine/Morse, Petagine/Brown, Choo/Brown. Whatever, all of them will be more productive than Everett ever could be.

    By the way, how are Brown’s splits vs. Lefties ?

  41. StandinPat said

    I think Choo over Everett is a no brainer as well. Choo would man LF, and be a huge defensive upgrade over Ibanez, and only has to put up an OPS of barely over .700 to do what Everett is doing. I think he can handle that. Plus Everett cant run, Choo is a base stealing threat to boot. Im a huge fan of Choo and think he is gonna be a quality MLB’r for years, but even without going overboard with the projection I dont see how he is any worse than an upgrade defensivley and on the basepaths, and a wash at the palte over Everett.

  42. Hunter Brown versus LHP
    2006 – .275/.390/.510
    2005 – .315/.357/.511

  43. StandinPat said

    Would Brown be markedly better against lefites than Morse? I doubt he would, and Morse still has a bit more upside. The only person I might replace with Brown would be your backup infielder, ie Bloomquist, and thats only if you find a quality 4th OF that can man CF from time to time.

  44. Not markedly, but i think he’d hit for a significantly higher average versus LHP than Morse. Morse would do a little bit more damage with his hits, he’d just have fewer of them.

    But Brown can play third on days ya wanna DH Beltre and Brown can play second for a few innings, too.

  45. Jerry said

    Good topic Jason,

    I keep going back and forth on this. I was way adamant about the M’s being a rebuilding team, but they are looking more and more legit every day. It is a tough call.

    I still think that they are a team on the rise, and that they should be looking towards the future instead of going for it now. That said, they are really hanging with the A’s despite the fact that they are starting their annual late-season hot streak.

    I am still a bit torn, but to answer your questions:

    “Is this club for real? Are they a good baseball team? Still mediocre? Average? ”

    I don’t think that they are as good as they seem right now. The NL is a far weaker league than the AL, and the M’s have been beating up on bad teams for a bit. That isn’t to say that this is not a good thing. Good teams should beat up on bad teams. But I an looking forward to seeing what the M’s do after the allstar break when we play some legit AL playoff contenders. The M’s are good, but I keep thinking that perhaps they aren’t as awesome as they might seem. They are better than mediocre, and they are firmly establishing themselves as good. But I don’t think that they are real good yet. But the next month will clarify this a whole lot.

    “Will they win the west?”

    I am still thinking the A’s will win it. But the M’s are not a long shot now. They could do it.

    “If they do, do they have a shot in hell to compete with Boston, New York, Chicago or Detroit in the playoffs?”

    No. This is the key point. The M’s are playing in a weak division right now. Over the course of this win streak they have been on, they have been beating up on the worse division in the weaker league. They still haven’t shown us much against elite teams.

    Honestly, I think that M’s would be a huge long-shot against those other teams in the playoffs. The M’s starting pitching is just not a dominant group. Having three really dominant starters is huge in the playoffs. Right now, the M’s don’t even have one.

    “What would it take to make them good enough to win the west?”

    Keep playing like they are now. Maybe get lucky with some internal moves, like having Snelling come up and play well. Maybe a nice suprise from Choo. But the biggest thing will be staying consistent with what they are doing now. Beltre has to keep hitting when the interleague games are over, Sexson hitting like he can, Johjima continuing to hit with some power, etc.

    “Compete in the postseason?”

    To take this next step, they would have to make some bold, big moves. They would need one really good starter at the very least. Probably, they would need two. To get that type of pitcher, the M’s would have to gut their farm system. That is why I think that the spot the M’s are in now is sketchy: in order to go for it, they will have to sacrifice the future. That would be a real bad idea at this point.

    “How good do all of you think the 2006 Seattle Mariners really are?”

    They are a hell of a lot better than they were last year. I think that the M’s are on the upswing. Like Cleveland in 2004. They have now gained respectability, and they are only going to get better in the next two years or so. They need to continue to stay on course, and keep putting together a solid roster.

    Going back to the things the M’s need to be a legit playoff force, those things are much easier done in the offseason. The M’s are a few good moves away from being really good. But the M’s best bet would be to be a bit conservative at the trade deadline. If they can get better without mortgaging their future, great. If some other club offers a real good young player(s) for Meche, do it. Otherwise, just sit tight.

  46. Shaunjohn said

    Jason,

    Do you know what happened to Joel Piniero’s velocity? I know he was throwing at least in the low 90’s, mid 90’s at times even, a couple years ago. Now it’s suprising to see him hit 90. What happened?

    Thanks

  47. MatthewCarruth said

    46. Arm injury.

    32. Let’s finally address this Mo Vaugn thing.

    Mo Vaugn was coming off three consecutive seasons of ~1.000 OPS seasons, the three years before that, he was solidly mid 900s. Yeah, what a TERRIBLE idea to sign a guy like that when he’s only 30.

    And what did he did for ANA? 866 OPS and 863 OPS for two years before he got hurt. Wow, what a terrible decision.

    You all forget how dominant of an offensive presence Mo Vaughn used to be.

  48. willmore2000 said

    Wow, Thomas is pulverizing the Rancho Cucamonga lineup. 11 strikeouts in 5 innings so far. 1 walks. 5 hits.

  49. MatthewCarruth said

    postseason is a complete crapshoot. you can go 11-8 and bring home the WS banner.

    Just get there.

  50. MatthewCarruth said

    yeah, Thomas seems to be responding well to his promotion. Whats your take on the guy Jason?

  51. Dave Cairns said

    Jason

    I have seen the Aus. Baseball Federation reporting that Ryan Rowland -Smith has been promoted to SA, is this correct ?

    He does not seem to have set A+ on fire so why the move ? I thought with the late start this year due to injury they would have taken their time with him.

  52. KB said

    Right now, we’re 2nd place good 🙂

  53. Re: 46

    It’s my strong opinion that Joel was working with an unfair advantage until 2004, if you know what I mean.

    He was never hurt that badly and the whole “flexor bundle” thing is ridiculous. He wasn’t hurt, he just sucked.

  54. re: Dave

    RRS was indeed sent to AA and it wasn’t because he was lighting up IE it was because he belongs in Double-A. He only went to IE to get his arm back in shape after the layoff with the injury.

  55. and back to Nageotte for a second, I guess my guesswork was a good guess after all… he was placed on the DL today.

  56. Snave said

    I agree with NW Baseball in comment #18: replace Pineiro, replace Carl. Also with Fred in #32 about simply letting Carl and Eddie go, the M’s probably wouldn’t get much of anything in trade for either of them. Whether or not those moves could or should be made will of course depend on whether or not the team can continue to play well on a consistent basis.

    I think the next month will be what tells us the most about how good the Mariners really are this season. Right now, with Beltre and Sexson waking up and driving in runs, with Ichiro, Ibanez, Johjima, Betancourt and Lopez hitting well, and with everyone fielding well, the team is playing at a nice level. Meche and Moyer have been pretty consistent, and Hernandez is coming around.

    If the Mariners can play above .500 for the next month, I think they will be at or near the top of the AL West. While that would be incredibly exciting, I would also be concerned that the front office would make a couple of rash, ill-conceived trades that would hurt the team’s future, just for a shot at a playoff spot where the M’s still might not have enough talent to match up in the postseason.

    If we are, say, in first place and 5-10 games above .500 by the end of July, I hope the front office either does nothing at all or does very little. This season is starting to look like a great turnaround year for the team, and because I look at it that way, I also think that if we get into the playoffs as AL West champs this year, it will just be gravy. I wouldn’t expect much success for Seattle in the playoffs should we get there this year, but it would still be a great ending to a great season. And if the front office doesn’t panic in July, nearly all the pieces would still be in place for building an even stronger team in 2007… fix the parts that are broken or not working well (CF, rotation?) and keep the working parts in place if possible.

    I don’t really think this team will go into a tailspin, but if it should happen, some bigger moves might happen.

    Anyone think it would be a good idea to go after Jason Schmidt during the offseason? I’d love to see him in a Seattle uniform.

  57. Snave said

    I forgot to mention the excellence of Sherrill, Soriano and Putz. Wow…

    Also, Jason: this is a great website you have! I think I will be coming here often for the good Mariner information and insights!!

  58. Thanks, Snave.

  59. StandinPat said

    Only two games back, and two games above .500, the M’s dont have to be that great to win 84-85 games, which may be enough to wint he west. I still think we have some internal upgrades available to us, which I hope we exercise. We prob arent going to get anything for any player that is any less than critical to our success so lets just stop dreamin. DFA Everett, and maybe even Piniero, or take whatever is out there. Bring up Snelling and grab Armas or Doug Davis if it doenst cost you too much. You wind up with a better team than you have now, which by the way is a team charging for 1st in the AL west.

  60. Ron said

    Jason,
    CHEMISTRY, one thing I’ve learned is you don’t mess with chemistry when everything is going excellent! Things are starting to turn for Our Mariners. I will add that we seriously need a “Number 1” or a “Number 2” this will take us to the next level and increase our chemistry defensively and offensively. Yes, we need more production from our DH but we do have some excellent alternatives in Snelling. And if needed AJ is ready to kick some…

  61. Allen Jacobs said

    Hopefully we will see Snelling starting this weekend after returning from the NL West road swing. Would not be surprised if Petegine is DFA’d leaving Everett on the bench. Would be nice to avoid Carl’s vested option for next year.

  62. MatthewCarruth said

    Pick up Jeff Weaver

    The Angels are DFAing him today

  63. willmore2000 said

    I’d take him as an alternative to Pineiro. Stick Pineiro in the pen and Weaver will deliver an easy 4 ERA the rest of the year.

  64. jtopps said

    The M’s biggest problems are above the GM, I can guarantee you that.

    Bavasi maybe a mediocre GM, he sure isn’t GOOD, but replacing him will not fix anything until the puppetmasters are replaced, too.

    JAC- This is a pretty commonly held belief around the blogosphere, but does anyone in the organization see this situation the same way? Anyone with any power to do anything about it?

  65. Nope. We’re screwed.

  66. seattlesporty said

    A power bat to play LF/DH, DM, and 1 TOR pitcher.

  67. seattlesporty said

    For 2007, and we are WS conteders and frontrunner to win the division.

  68. willmore2000 said

    Would you happen to have this weeks Mega Millions number too, sporty ?

    We can’t afford DM AND a power bat AND a TOR starter. We can get DM and a mid-rotation start and maybe a nice bat, if Snelling gets injured again. Until further notice, though, Snelling is that bat, and we’re not getting Cliff Lee.

  69. MatthewCarruth said

    The Ms will have the money to afford DM, a TOR and likely a mid-level bat as well.

    They should have 20-30 million available.

  70. willmore2000 said

    DM is 10-12 (and don’t forget the posting fee), another TOR is about the same, who do you want as a mid-level bat and where would you put him ?

  71. DrDetecto said

    The M’s can back-load the contracts to the SP’s, the way they did Sexson. Sexson’s contract is over and out after two more years, and you can pay the TOR’s then.

    No problem paying two TOR’s and a big bat if that’s what you want to do. Sexson’s bat will be replaced by Clement/Snelling/etc.

  72. Doc is exactly right, but the ownership had to b begged and pleaded with to frontloand/backload the Beltre-Sexson thing.

    They can do it and make it work easily, they are just very close-minded.

  73. DrDetecto said

    Jason you heard anything on whether they’re wavering about Pineiro yet?

  74. MatthewCarruth said

    First, DM probably doesn’t get 10-12. More like 8-10.
    Second, posting fee doesn’t count against the budget.
    Third, yes, FA TOR will be 10-12
    Fourth, I haven’t looked at the hitting FAs in awhile, but IIRC, there isn’t much out there that I like. Craig Wilson maybe, but his OF defense is sketchy.

  75. Oh, yeah, they may have wavered right off the boat tonight. Hargrove has had it and though Chaves thinks he can help Joel be useful in the bullpen, at least one front office member thinks Pineiro carried no value and they club is better off cutting him loose completely.

    I’ll me pretty surprised if Pineiro makes another start, and I’d be shocked if he made it for two more.

  76. BTW, Matsuzaka’s market is beyond 8 million… way beyond. The M’s would probably try and be creative with a contract with DM but the average annual salary is going to be well above 8 million. Maybe not 12, but probably 10+.

    There’s not a scout alive, aside from those that appear to be prejudiced against all Asian players and ALWAYS project them to be below average MLB’ers, that thinks Matsuzaka is less than a No. 2 starter in the US.

  77. MatthewCarruth said

    Surprising. I just figured with the reduced leverage + never pitched in MLB before he would get a lower salary. But I guess that’s 5 years ago talking.

  78. I think 10 mil IS a lower salary.

    If he was already in the US and became a FA, he’d be getting AJ Burnett money, for sure.

  79. DrDetecto said

    Thanks for the info.

    Good stuff about Matsuzaka .. FA in the USA he gets Burnett money no doubt … but I was surprised at how low Johjima went.

    Matsuzaka has Boras, in a move that raised Japanese eyebrows sky high, and they’ve been rubbing their hands over the move to the US for some time. When it finally happens you can expect a contract brawl with the foil on…

    Bottom line is, NPB superstars have always come at a discount per MLB free agents. If the M’s or Yankees or Dodgers get Matsuzaka for $10-12m per, they can consider it a nice savings…

  80. Johjima was breaking in as the first ever Japanese catcher to come over… Nothing new about SPs coming over, so there’s much less risk there.

    Matsuzaka will be the most talented pitcher to ever come over from Japan and is right there with Hideki and Ichiro.

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