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Long Live June

Posted by Jason A. Churchill on July 2, 2006

Well, other than the fact that the Mariners posted their first winning month in two and a half seasons…

June was good to the M’s and while we have all seen the numbers of Ichiro, Adrian Beltre, Raul Ibanez and Richie Sexson.

The team hit .287 with an AL-best 39 home runs. They stole 17 bases in 21 attempts, led the league in OPS and SLG during the month – including a total of 104 extra-base hits, also the best in the AL – and scored 5.81 runs per game, third most in the AL.

They also grounded into just 18 double plays in June, the second fewest in the American League.

But the most important numbers of all might just be 139.

In June, the Mariners tallied up 1010 plate appearances and fanned just 139 times – 13.7 percent – a large improvement over the 16.4 percent totalled in April.

It’s pretty simple. The M’s are having much better at-bats and though the walk totals aren’t significantly better (75 in June, 59 in May), they have stayed away from the strikeout and put a hurtin’ on pitches — in hitters’ counts.

June produced 39% more hitters counts (2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1) for the Mariners than did May, and 41% more than April. The M’s worked to 3-0 exactly TWICE as much as in June as in May, and just shy of twice the total from April.

Adrian Beltre experienced an 0-2 count in just 12 plate appearances and had a 1-2 count only 24 times. In April he went 0-2 31 times and 1-2 49 times.In May, Beltre fell behind 0-2 in 33 plate appearances and 1-2 in 40, but less than half as many times in June. He also hit .335 when he swung at the first pitch and .319 when he swung at the second pitch – in June. This would explain his .611 slugging percentage for the month.

Richie Sexson also saw a similar trend take shape. In both April and May, Sexson saw 23 different 0-2 counts and 23 and 27 counts of a ball and two strikes, respectively.In June, Sexson went 0-2 just 14 times and saw a 1-2 count just 23 times and hit .279 when he swing before the third pitch was thrown.

Oddly, however, Sexson hit .265 with two strikes in June and hit .411 with a full count.

The sluggers are being much more aggressive early in the count and they aren’t alone. Only Carl Everett and Yuniesky Betancourt failed to significantly improve thier 0-2 and 1-2 count totals significantly, using percentage in
Everett’s case.

Jeff Pentland may have a lot to do with this, but the credit has to go to the players. They’ve been patient with themselves and fought through the toughest of times offensively, and through the magic of contageous hitting, not one hitter in the lineup that had at least 90 PAs in June had a worse month than the previous two.

The club hit .294 with runners in scoring position in June – with a .456 slugging percentage – and hit .271 with runners in scoring position and two down – including 11 home runs.All of a sudden, the M’s can hit, from top to bottom.

Jeremy Reed and Yuniesky Betancourt combined for a .431 slugging percentage in June, with six home runs and 13 total extra-base hits… from the final two spots in the order. In the words of Adam Sandler – not too shabby.

Ichiro (.386/.427/.509, 4 HR, 8 SB) Beltre (.324/.387/.611, 5 HR), Sexson (.539 SLG, 8 HR, 26 RBI) and Ibanez (.326/.424/.695, 9 HR, 27 RBI) should share player of the month honors.

For the record, the M’s hit .287/.343/.497/.841 for the month of June with 39 home runs. Who woulda thunk that the M’s would lead the league in power categories for any month.

The pitching wasn’t too bad, either, posting a 3.60 Team ERA, 4th in the AL.

Our buddy Jake Woods tossed 10.1 scoreless innings (and 2.2 more on June 31st*) in June while Rafael Soriano (0.66 ERA, 15-2 K/BB) and J.J. Putz (0.75 ERA, 16-1 K/BB, 7 svs) continued to be the best bullpen tandem in baseball.

Gil Meche went 3-0 with a 1.60 ERA in five starts while Jamie Moyer went 3-2 with a 2.05 ERA in six June starts. Meche’s 1.60 mark is second best in the league for the month, behind only Johan Santana. Moyer ranked sixth.

Felix Hernandez was also very good in June, posting a 3.38 ERA.

As a whole, the M’s starting rotation tallied a 3.80 ERA but Moyer, Meche and Hernandez combined to go 10-3 with a 2.32 ERA and walked just 26 batters in 112 1/3 innings.

Hooray for June!

Tomorrow, on June 32nd, the M’s go for their 8th series win of the month.

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98 Responses to “Long Live June”

  1. DIQ said

    Those are some nice stats to look at. It was fun to watch the whole month while everyone played good baseball. Here’s to the future, and faith that the Mariners will carry on their good play in July.

    Cruceta swap for Moyer anyone?

    Pretty please…. ?

  2. J said

    Sub Pineiro for Moyer there, and you’ve got yourself a deal.

  3. Goose said

    Don’t you mean Cruceta for Pineiro?

    Man those are some crazy stats.

    June 32nd, haha nice.

  4. Yeah, no kidding… Why swap Cruceta for Moyer?

  5. DIQ said

    Yes. Sorry it’s late and I’m all blogged out from reviewing weekend posts on PI Sportspot and Detectovision.

  6. DIQ said

    If Cruceta were called up for the rotation, and Pineiro were put in the bullpen, then who’s out?

  7. In that case, it would probably be Green going back to Tacoma, though the BEST move is to DFA Pineiro, send Woods to AAA or trade/DFA Eddie.

  8. JH said

    June wasn’t too shabby for the farm system, either.

    Choo: .371/.465/.588
    Jones: .351/.406/.505
    Quiroz: .333/.407/.500
    Chen: .378/.447/.544
    Valbuena: .301/.370/.452

    Plus the encouraging starts of Halman, Lo, White, Moore, Avila, Liddi, Dotel, and Peguero (though the last two have been striking out WAY too much against AZL pitching).

    And that’s just the hitters.

  9. MatthewCarruth said

    the only drawback I can find is the still low OBP. We could really really use another .400 OBP guy in the lineup. Say at DH….

  10. Jerry said

    I am wondering if last nights start will be Pineiro’s final game in Seattle.

    He was putrid. I am wondering if the front office is considering letting him go. I would think that a move for Weaver would be really smart right now.

    Or, the club could just slide Woods into the rotation. I would rather see Cruceta or an outside alternative, but I could see the M’s going with the guy already up with the team first.

    I am really expecting to see more moves. How about this:

    -DFA or trade Everett
    -DFA or trade Pineiro
    -pick up Jeff Weaver for one the the above
    -promote Snelling

    That is a better team. Immediately, and with little expense.

  11. 1996Coug said

    I am amazed at how quickly this team has gelled together. Far removed from the Northwest, I get most of my scores the morning after and I’m consistently speechless as to how this is coming back late in games. Whatever is going, please keep it up.

    Being from the Bay Area, I can say that the A’s suck and the Mariners have every chance at winning this division. And no, I’m not smoking crack. They really do suck. Their offense is laughable.

    Go M’s!

  12. Edman said

    Weaver?…..LMFAO…..he has yet to make a single team he’s been with, better. All this love for a guy who’s NEVER met his potential. Funny how you’ll get so frustrated with Meche, yet have all this love for Weaver…..simply because you haven’t had to suffer with his shortcoming every fifth day.

    Willmore will come in blaming LA’s defense, because it can’t be his lack of pitching. Blaming LA’s defense?…..how pathetic. How is it the other pitchers on the staff are doing better then him, with that same defense? They must not like Jeff.

    How about passing on Weaver, and actually going out and getting someone who’s not a project? I know some get all warm and fuzzy over the “rebirth” crap, but he’s not gonna be, what he’s never been, at this point in the season.

    Take him on as a project, next year, OK. But don’t give up a roster spot for him…….not now, not ever. Make him go back to AAA, and prove he’s got something left. Now is not the time to experiment with trash.

  13. MT said

    JAC, shouldn’t Johjima be part of the Player of the Month Honors? He hit a ridiculous .345 .382 .643 1.025 for the month. Other than that nice write up.

    Go M’s!!!!!

  14. Jerry said

    Wow Edman,

    You are so so totally wrong. Lets look at all your wrongness in detail:

    “..he has yet to make a single team he’s been with, better.”

    Thats not true at all. He was solid to excellent with the Dodgers and the Tigers.
    In LA, he was a better than average #3 starter. Not an ace, but definitely valuable.

    “All this love for a guy who’s NEVER met his potential.”

    Sure he has. If you expected him to be an ace pitcher, then perhaps people were disappointed. But he is what he is: a middle of the rotation guy.

    “Funny how you’ll get so frustrated with Meche, yet have all this love for Weaver…..simply because you haven’t had to suffer with his shortcoming every fifth day.”

    Who is pissed off at Meche? I am not. He is having a great season. Some people are suggesting that we should sell him on him. I personally don’t think we should resign him next season. But I don’t think that anyone is upset with Meche this year. He has been a pleasant suprise.

    “Willmore will come in blaming LA’s defense, because it can’t be his lack of pitching. Blaming LA’s defense?…..how pathetic. How is it the other pitchers on the staff are doing better then him, with that same defense?’:Weaver?…..LMFAO…..he has yet to make a single team he’s been with, better. All this love for a guy who’s NEVER met his potential. Funny how you’ll get so frustrated with Meche, yet have all this love for Weaver…..simply because you haven’t had to suffer with his shortcoming every fifth day.

    “Willmore will come in blaming LA’s defense, because it can’t be his lack of pitching. Blaming LA’s defense?…..how pathetic. How is it the other pitchers on the staff are doing better then him, with that same defense? They must not like Jeff.”

    Your whole argument here is based on the assumption that all pitchers will be affected by defense in the same way. That is clearly not the case. Weaver is not dominant. He lets other teams put the ball in play a lot. He also is a flyball pitcher, so OF defense and park factors are going to have a bigger impact on his stats than guys who rack up K’s. Does that mean that Weaver is a bad pitcher? Not at all. Jamie Moyer also pitches to contact a lot. So do lots of decent pitchers. But these types of pitchers are going to be impacted by their surroundings a lot more than dominant guys, like Bartolo Colon, Kelvim Escobar, and some of the Angels other pitchers.

    Willmore was right in suggesting that Weaver would do better with the M’s. In fact, he is a great fit in Safeco, and Reed and Ichiro would help him a lot.

    “How about passing on Weaver, and actually going out and getting someone who’s not a project?”

    Ahhh…because those players will cost the M’s a whole lot more. You don’t seem to grasp the whole economics of baseball. Picking up Weaver is buying low. It is a low-risk, medium-reward move. If Eddy Perez cost the M’s Asdrubal Cabrera, think of how much a consistently good SP will cost the M’s at mid-season? Do you want to drain the farm system right now, when the M’s are finally improving? A good #3 pitcher (someone like Livan Hernandez) will cost the M’s valuable prospects. It is not simply a choice between Weaver or a better guy, all else equal.

    “I know some get all warm and fuzzy over the ‘rebirth’ crap”

    I don’t think I have ever read this argument on any blog. I don’t know where you picked this up, but you must be visiting some new-age M’s blogs that I don’t know about.

    “Take him on as a project, next year, OK.”

    Wouldn’t it be best to pick him up now, when his value is super low, and see if he does alright with the M’s? Waiting until the offseason makes far less sense. I would rather see the M’s go after elite starters in the offseason.

    “But don’t give up a roster spot for him…….not now, not ever. Make him go back to AAA, and prove he’s got something left. Now is not the time to experiment with trash.”

    Isn’t that what we are doing with Joel right now? This is not a quesiton of replacing a good player with a bad player. It is a question of replacing a horrible player (Pineiro) with a bad player with upside (Weaver). The downside is still an upgrade. The upside is a big upgrade at a modest price.

    Again, Ed, your argument just sucks. You are refuting arguments that nobody has made, proposing alternatives that aren’t realistic, and backing this up with evidence that is simply not true.

  15. StandinPat said

    Jerry,

    I agree with most of what you said, except that Weaver has ever been borderline excellent. He had one pretty good season and the rest have been average at best. Posting an era in the low 4’s in in the NL, in an extreme pitchers park like LA isnt exactly setting the world on fire. I agree he would be an upgrade over Piniero, but that kinda goes without saying with as bad as he has been. If you could get him really cheap and try him out for a handful of starts maybe I could see that. But he still isnt gonna put you over the top or make a huge impact of this team. If the M’s trade for a starter I want it to be someone with impact. Lets get a #3, not a borderline #5 cause he is cheap. Cruceta and Livingston are cheap, if you wanna go that route, and either one of those guys have as much of a chance of posting a mid 4 era as Weaver does.

  16. MatthewCarruth said

    the impact trades aren’t there right now. And when they do become available they will come at a HIGH cost.

    Weaver can be had for essentially NOTHING.

    NOTHING.

    It’s NO MORE COMPLICATED than this decision:

    who would you rather have, Pineiro or Weaver?

  17. StandinPat said

    Yeah it is more complicated than that. #1 Weaver hasnt been released yet, so as of right now he would cost you a prospect. #2 Weaver is better than Piniero, yes, but is he better than Cruceta or Livingston?

  18. MatthewCarruth said

    People DFAed rarely bring you back anything more valuable than PTBNL.
    Do you really think that Bavasi and Hargrove will both agree to put Cruceta into the rotation? I don’t.

  19. StandinPat said

    If Bavasi DFA’s Piniero and brings up Cruceta, then Hargrove has to put him in the rotation. He doesnt have a choice in the matter. He does have a choice however on when to leave him in and when to pull him. How Hargrove uses him in his starts could be the dangerous part. Ofcourse if you fire Hargrove that makes things a little better for everyone.

    Also the possible PTNL isnt a big deal, but if you deal for him you might have to take on some of his salary.

  20. Goose said

    It’s official, the Perez trade was a bad one.

    Why?

    BECAUSE HARGROVE FUCKING REFUSES TO USE HIM!!!!!

    YOU STUPID PIECE OF FUCKING SHIT!! FUENTES IS A LEFT HANDER DICKWAD!!! NOT HAVING HIM PINCH HIT FOR WILLIE FUCKING BLOOMQUIST IS TREASONOUS ASSHOLE!!!

  21. StandinPat said

    My sentiments exactly! We traded for him to be a lefty masher and right now we are facing a lefty that needs mashing. Could it be any simplier than that? If it was, do you think Hargrove would realize it?

  22. Dave Cairns said

    Jason lets us interact together freely without editing our contributions, regardless of what we think, who we like or dislike or what team we follow.

    For that we should be very thankful in this day and age of editorial control.

    For this reason let’s keep our comments/views constructive and clean; I personally am not offended by the language used but others may be. I also do not think using profanities adds anything to the ongoing discussion.

  23. DIQ said

    My words were almost identical as I watched us essentially lose the game in the bottom of the 9th.

    Hargrove indolence amazes me.

  24. Goose said

    MLB has to investigate him for collusion.

    Because it is not possible for a human being to manage a baseball game in this way without it being intentional.

  25. willmore2000 said

    I’m fine with the language, because in this case it was appropriate. I myself rarely use profanities, but today I hit the motherload. I cursed out Hargrove and some of his relatives, and I think his pet caught some flak too.

  26. StandinPat said

    Yes, to hell with anything associated with Mike Hargrove. I dont know if there was any other way to describe watching that game w/o profanity. I think a nun would have cussed out Hargrove for today’s new found idiocy.

  27. Hargrove made more mistakes than the M’s got hits today.

    Brutal.

  28. willmore2000 said

    I used to say that a manager can not cost a team more than 5 games a year at the most. I was wrong, Hargrove is defying logic and is costing the team more wins than any hitter or pitcher.

  29. jason said

    The fact that we’ve lost 22 games by 1 or 2 runs is tough. It could be an indictment on Hargrove’s ability to manage. I’m as down on Guardado and Reed as I am on Pineiro. Reed is hitting .217 with only 23 AB’s against lefties. That truely is pathetic. I’m going to jump on the Choo Choo Train! I hope he gets the call. Can’t he play an adequate center?

  30. MatthewCarruth said

    He can’t be much worse than Bloomquist will be.

  31. willmore2000 said

    RRS is pitching like he was never gone.

    What was wrong with him, anyway ?

  32. willmore2000 said

    And Bazardo is pitching well in his comeback too.

    Talk about a staff ! Blackley, Feierabend, Bazardo, Rohrbaugh, all good starting prospects.

  33. StandinPat said

    So here’s a question…rank these in order of importance for winning the division.

    A) Help against LHP
    B) A better #5 starter(Replacing Piniero)
    C) Atleast one more bullpen arm
    D) A designated hitter who can, well, hit
    E) A manager that has actually seen a baseball game before and knows the basics of how the game is played

  34. StandinPat said

    Keith Law apparently belives half of a half of a season of Brian Roberts is better than 50+ rbi’s and the highest slging % by any Al 2B in a full half season by Jose Lopez. Read more at Im an idiot.com or

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/allstar06/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=2507646

  35. willmore2000 said

    E, D, B, A, C.

    In terms of solutions:

    Rohn, Snelling, Weaver/Cruceta, Perez, Fruto/trade.

  36. StandinPat said

    I think that since we already have Perez, E solves A, agree?

  37. willmore2000 said

    Yeah.

  38. Goose said

    Now that I’ve calmed down and yes it has taken me this long, I got to thinking about something.

    At this point last year, we were in last place and something like 15 games back.A loss such as this still would of pissed alot of us off, but not enough to provoke the kind of responce it got out out of us because we knew that in the long run it doesn’t matter because we weren’t making the playoffs anyways.

    But this year, we are in 2nd place, and just 1 game out of first. The fact that this loss means this much to us shows is a testment to how improved this team is.

    So here’s a question for yeah.

    What situation would you rather be in? The one where we are elminated and this one can just be shrugged off, or the one where we are in it and this loss just infuriates you to the point of homocidal rage?

    I’ll take the rage. It’s kinda awesome to be this concerned with baseball again.

  39. willmore2000 said

    The one where we are not frustrated, because we are 20 games over .500 and leading the division by well over 10 games … oh and Hargrove isn’t managing.

  40. MatthewCarruth said

    34. Law has a valid point. Jose’s OBP is very low. Roberts has quite a high one. Roberts hasn’t played “half of a half of a season” he’s played 60 games. His SLG is certainly lower, but their OPS (in fact Roberts’ is higher) is nearly the same and we all know OBP > SLG in terms of importance. Roberts is also faster, slightly better on defense, and does have all-star creds from the past.

    Roberts deserves to be in.

    The only problem is, not over Lopez, but over Loretta who is legitimately worse than both of them.

  41. Edman said

    Goose……you want to vent, that’s OK. But your little tirade says more about your immaturity, than anything else. You’re probably still young yet, and believe that tirades are an acceptible form of expression……..in your own home, they are.

    This is a public forum, and as such, you have freedom of speech….sort of.

    There are kids who read this forum, and you should consider that before demonstrate to kids that it’s OK to swear like a truck driver. It only makes you look less intelligent, and purely reactionary.

    I don’t care if you want to show your anger…..but consider that some parents probably would rather you restrict WHAT you say.

  42. Edman said

    BTW……just curious. If he pinch hits for Bloomquist, and say, I dunno……the game gets extended and the Centerfielder gets hurt……who plays in the outfield?

    Just curious? Think maybe there might have been more to consider, than ONE AB?

  43. Jon said

    It’s not rocket science Edman – you move Ichiro to center, take Everett out of the DH and move him to right. Not perfect, but it’s asinine to refuse to use the guy you just traded for specifically to hit LHP on the off chance that the team both doesn’t win the game in the 9th AND goes on to pick up an outfield injury in extra innings.

  44. MatthewCarruth said

    Actually, you could have moved Perez to RF and saved your DH spot.

    And it’s moot because Perez should have PH for Ibanez in the first place.

  45. MatthewCarruth said

    Or you have another bench bat because it’s dumb to carry 12 pitchers in the first place.

  46. Edman said

    Sorry, baseball Einsteins…..this isn’t computer baseball, where you freely substitute because defense hardly matters.

    To pinch-hit a righthanded bat, for a righthanded bat…..especially one where you lack a defensive replacement….JUST ISN’T DONE…..for a less than ten percent extra chance at a base hit.

    Tie game, you have to prepare for the worse……and that means that your pinch-hitter is more likely to fail, than succeed.

    When playing at home, you always get the last opportunity to bat, so you keep as many guns available as you can, not spend them early.

    I’m neither for or against Hargrove. But the very idea that somehow pinch-hitting for Bloomquist changed the outcome, is pure fantasy.

  47. Edman said

    Not to mention, I’m sure y’all took the time to look up Willi’e stats against lefties……..

    .328 AVG.
    .391 OBP.

    Yep, better rush and replace his bat.

  48. Edman said

    Perez pinch-hit for Ibanez? Some of you think way too much. He’s the one guy you don’t pinch-hit for. Everett, yes…..Ibanez, no.

  49. Scruffy Lefty said

    Choo is up to replace Reed

    http://www.tacomarainiers.com/teaminfo/pr/story.php?story=97

  50. MatthewCarruth said

    “Perez pinch-hit for Ibanez? Some of you think way too much. He’s the one guy you don’t pinch-hit for. Everett, yes…..Ibanez, no.”

    Yeah, I guess thinking about
    Ibanez’s slipts vs. LHP: .231/.301/.407
    Fuentes’ splts against LHB: .069/.156/.172 (19 Ks in 29 ABs!!!!!!)
    and Perez’s splits against LHP: .330/.355/.693

    when a FLYBALL wins the game…

    man…yeah, too much thinking

  51. Jerry said

    Edman,

    Why do you even bother? Seriously. Go check out of PI blog.

  52. marinerswinws said

    Hey Jason is it true Choo is called up for tonites game?

  53. Goose said

    Yeah know, I had a feeling Choo was coming up. Especially when Jason picked him up in the PI league yesterday,

  54. Edman said

    Why do I bother? You mean, trying to compete with your obviously intellectual vantage point of the game?

    Statements like yours are why I bother.

  55. Edman said

    Just one more curiosity, Matthew.

    What is Ibanez’ flyball tendancy against lefthanders versus Perez?

    You state that’s all you need to win the game, then throw up stats unrelated to your point of view.

    Reality is, Fuentes is tough on either. It’s not as if you’re talking about a HUGE advantage. You keep Ibanez in the game because:

    A) He’s one of your best hitters, period.
    B) He’ll only face Fuentes once, so if the game goes into extras, you may have a more favorable match-up that can win you a game.
    C) Pinch-hitting for him, means you have to put Willie in left, thus limiting your pinch hit options in extra innings.

    Some of you thing only of the move you make in the inning…..not the ones you may have to make later on.

  56. StandinPat said

    Cant wait to see what Choo can do in the majors.

  57. For the record, I don’t see how you can justify pinch hitting for Ibanez versus Fuentes, if someone is suggesting that.

    If the game was 4-3 Colorado, then YES, because if you don’t get that run in, you lose the game. But it was tied and Raul’s bat is needed in the lineup for potential extra innings, which i why using Bloomquist as a PR for Sexson at FIRST was idiotic. If yer going to use Willie there, he better be stealing second. he didn’t and Grover is a total dumbass.

    But we knew that much.

  58. BTW, Willmore, working on the Wilson Scouting Report still… I should have that done in the next few days… also working on one for Francisco Cruceta and one for Baek, too.

  59. DrDetecto said

    ++ For the record, I don’t see how you can justify pinch hitting for Ibanez versus Fuentes, if someone is suggesting that.

    If the game was 4-3 Colorado, then YES, because if you don’t get that run in, you lose the game. ++

    If you pinch-hit Perez for Ibanez, your chances of winning go from, say, 60% to 90%+.

    If you pinch-hit down 4-3, your chances of winning go from, say, 30% to 60%.

    Why is the 30-to-60% gain more important than the 60-90% gain?

  60. DrDetecto said

    For sure this is the way that Mike Hargrove sees it: that you pinch-hit when you have a gun to your head. You pinch-hit to avoid an imminent loss.

    Jason didn’t invent this paradigm: it’s old-school baseball.

    They haven’t thought it through. PH to move your winning chances from 20% to 50% is NOT an inherently better idea than PH to move your winning chances from 50% to 80%.

    ………………

    Hargrove is stuck on the idea of PH not to lose — but there is another idea available — PH to close the game out.

    It is ironic that when it comes to PITCHING, he uses his best substitutes only when he is ahead, precisely to move his chances from 60% to 90%.

    ………………..

    It’s tradition. But it’s not smart. You pinch-hit Perez for Ibanez, he hits a fly ball and the game is over and you are in first place.

    You therefore avoid all losing opportunities for the rest of the night.

  61. StandinPat said

    Its the difference between playing to win and playing not to lose. When you play not to lose, you often dont do enough to win.

  62. Because of the probability of needing Ibanez later in the game.

    You have to sell out to tie the game, because you can’t be left holding your wad. If you are down a run and don’t score, you lose, game over.

    If it’s tied, at least you will have at least one more AB to get the job done and you can’t remove your cleanup hitter for a guy that isn’t his equal.

    Besides, saying that the winning chances go up 30% simply because of the splits factor is too much.

    Fuentes is nasty versus anyone.

    RHB hit just .198 off him and while that’s better than the .056 versus LHP, 30% is quite optimistic, especially since the Rockies outfielders were going to force the hitter to hit a ball over their heads to get that run in. They were playing VERY shallow.

    Fuentes gets a lot of pop-ups, too. Not a ton of true fly balls are hit off him. He leads all ML relievers in infield pop outs by 14.7%.

    What’s funny is, I would have had Raul squeeze.

  63. Re: Pat

    But far too often when you play to win, without the loss-prevention blinders, you end up with Willie Bloomquist hitting in key situations instead of Eduardo Perez, which, ridiculously, Hargrove let happen anyways.

  64. I buy Doc’s post about PH to win the game… I just wouldn’t have hit Perez for Ibanez in a tie game.

    If it was anyone in the lineup but Ibanez or Ichiro, I do PH to bring up the better split.

  65. DrDetecto said

    One thing we can say in Hargrove’s defense … there are other managers who won’t hit for their #4 hitters under any circumstances. Hargrove is not alone in that.

    But we do hear a lot this week along the lines of, you only PH when you’re tied or behind.

    Good managers PH to close out the game, too, and have since the days of Miller Huggins.

  66. So there aren’t any good managers in baseball, then?

    Because I don’t buy that any of the current 30 would have PH hit for Raul in that situation, let alone all of the “good” ones.

  67. StandinPat said

    Jason,

    I agree about not having the blinders on, but sometimes you do have to actively try to win the game, not just close your eyes and hope everything works out. I would not have pinch hit for ibanez either, but Everett or Bloomquist woulda been gone in a heartbeat in favor of Perez.

  68. All I am saying is that PH’ing Perez for Raul isn’t some no-brainer move — it’s yer best run-producer and you don’t automatically win the game if you pinch hit and the chances of winning don’t increase nearly enough.

  69. DrDetecto said

    ++Because I don’t buy that any of the current 30 would have PH hit for Raul in that situation, let alone all of the “good” ones.++

    Yeah, I think most managers would PH for Ibanez, LH-on-LH, if they have a huge RH bat on the bench like Perez. I’m sure that Lou would have. But I don’t know how you’d prove it.

    Ibanez is a #4 hitter only nominally. He’s a spear carrier in the big picture. He is not a “real” cleanup hitter.

    Other teams do pinch-hit, guys. If you’re not going to PH for Ibanez, lefty on lefty, you’re basically not going to PH for anybody other than Reed and Betancourt.

  70. DrDetecto said

    But in any case, you still had Bloomquist to PH for in the next AB, and you still had Everett-vs-LH later in the game.

    You aren’t going to get any PH situations that are any more tailored for Perez than the ones you had last night.

    As you pointed out the first time, the reason that Hargrove didn’t pinch-hit wasn’t that you don’t PH for Ibanez. The reason that Hargrove didn’t pinch-hit was because he wasn’t behind. And that’s a mistaken reason.

  71. Ibanez has been a legit MOYO bat this year, so while normally he’s a default cleanup guy, he’s a legit bat there right now.

    Besides, either way he’s still THAT guy for the M’s.

    And if MOST managers would PH for Raul in LH-LH situation than why don’t we see similar offensive clubs do that?

    Look it up. They don’t.

    BTW, Pineiro has been removed from the starting rotation and is going to be in the M’s bullpen and available for tonight’s game.

  72. StandinPat said

    Anyone replacing him, or are we just skipping his start? Its so wierd to actually excited in the M’s wheelings and deals from the perspective that they matter THIS year.

  73. MatthewCarruth said

    “B) He’ll only face Fuentes once, so if the game goes into extras, you may have a more favorable match-up that can win you a game.”

    Like when he faced Ray King?

    “C) Pinch-hitting for him, means you have to put Willie in left, thus limiting your pinch hit options in extra innings.”

    The only limiting it does is put Perez into the game. Petagine, Willie and Johjima were already used at that point.

    If I had Ibby FB stats on a split I would have given them. I don’t. All I know is Ibanez and Perez generate roughly the same GB/LD/FB in total.

    What I do have are K numbers, something else that is highly important to the situation.

    “Reality is, Fuentes is tough on either. It’s not as if you’re talking about a HUGE advantage. You keep Ibanez in the game because:”

    Fuentes Ks 60% of all LH batters he faces
    Fuentes Ks 26% of all RH batters he faces

    If just 50% of all balls in play (incl. HRs) could score Ichiro (who’s running on contact), you’ve increased your chance of winning by 17%. And that’s before you factor in the splits on Perez and Ibanez.

  74. Ignoring every inning after that if the 17% doesn’t work out?

    There’s a medium there, and it starts with not removing your best hitter from the TIE game…

    Sadly, Perez wasn’t used for Everett or Willie in later Abs.

  75. Ty said

    Why PH Perez for Ibanez? You have one out and Willie Bloomquist is up next. You might as well give Ibanez a shot and PH for Willie. Bloomquist only needed to hit a flyball, something he can’t do for his life, while Perez can.

    If there’s one thing we can all agree on, I guess it’s that Perez should have been in there somewhere.

  76. Ty,

    That would have certainly made a lot of sense, too, apparently too much, but Perez would have needed to get a base hit there because there were TWO outs at that point.

  77. Bilbo said

    Uh, wouldn’t that be about the same probability as needing Sexson later in the game and not PR for him with WB? It just doesn’t make sense that you would run for Sexson (at 1B, mind you) to try and win it but not PH for Ibanez.

  78. Bilbo said

    oops, darn xhtml gets me everytime!

  79. Why was Bloomquist even running for Sexson? Hargrove took a bat out of the game and then didn’t even steal with Willie.

    You don’t pinch run for Sexson AT FIRST BASE and then stand your best baserunner at first base. Sexson could have done that.

  80. Bilbo said

    exactly. so if the strategy is to go for the win in some convoluted way by removing Sexson from the lineup, then there is no excuse not to hit for Sexson or Willie later.

  81. Nobody here is arguing against that Bilbo.

  82. Bilbo said

    Pineiro out:

    BTW, I hope it is Cruceta coming up to replace Jo-el. Not much else for him in AAA except to keep improving command, but his ratios make up for the BBs in my world.

  83. If he could keep up the K rates, yeah, but that’s highly unlikely.

    So he has to clean up his control.

    But he’s better than Pineiro, right now, but who isn’t?

  84. DrDetecto said

    There is a critical point that Hargrove is missing here about “giving up his pinch-hitter in every subsequent inning.”

    Go to lookoutlanding.com and check out one of Jeff Sullivan’s “Win Expectancy” graphs.

    By score-and-inning, and by base situation, you can CALCULATE how much a given hit or out gains you, in terms of WE. ***All future innings are automatically included in these calculations.***

    A manager’s job is simply to move the WE from 52% to 89% when he gets the chance. The manager’s job isn’t to ensure that he never gets caught in a 13th-inning snafu.

    A manager has 3-4 offensive chances, and 3-4 pitching-change opportunities, to slide that WE scale up the graph as much as he can.

    ………………..

    PH Perez for either Ibanez or for Bloomquist was going to slide the WE wayyyyyyyyy up the graph. **This considers all possible extra-inning outcomes already.**

    Perez pinch-hits, they win right there.

  85. DrDetecto said

    Everybody’s clear on this point?

    That the manager, in every game, has 6-8 PH/RP opportunities available to him? And that his job with these lineup switches is to change the WE (win expectancy) by as much as possible?

    Is everybody clear that a change in the WE from 57% to 91% is better than a change from 22% to 29%? That a desperate 9th-inning pinch-hit, down by two, is not as leveraged as a proactive PH with the game tied?

  86. I’m certainly not going to argue that Grover is doing his job well.

  87. willmore2000 said

    “BTW, Pineiro has been removed from the starting rotation and is going to be in the M’s bullpen and available for tonight’s game.”

    Having not heard this when I went to the game, I can not describe my jubilation when I heard the announcer utter the words “Now pitching for the Seattle Mariners, Joel Pineiro.” I was as giddy as R. Kelly … uhh … let’s not go there.

  88. willmore2000 said

    And so much for the maturation of Feierabend. And he was so consistent too. It almsot hurts to see him just blow up. Oh well, let’s hope he bounces back.

  89. willmore2000 said

    Jason, somewhat unorthodox, but what about Blackley ? Last start – July 1st. 5 innings, 3 base runners. June 25th – 7 innings, 7 Ks, 7 base runners, 1 ER. Before that he was roughed up a bit, but that’s somewhat acceptable. I think Blackley might do for a spot start before the all-star break. Then again, I wouldn’t want to yo-yo him from San Antonio to Seattle to San Antonio. So why not give him the start in Seattle, if he is sub-par, replace him with Cruceta or Baek and send Blackley to Tacoma ?

    The weather might not be conducive to his recovery, but he seems as ready as he can get in San Antonio.

    I just want to see an Aussie in the majors again, and since Snelling is a few weeks away, I figure T-Black will do.

  90. Goose said

    Tonights game made me sour on Jeff Pentland a little.

    Was I the only one who thought around the third inning “Hey, everything Weaver is throwing is off the outside of the plate, out of the 50 pitches he’s thrown so far, its seems like 3 of them were inside.Everything else is outside, outside,outside, outside. Maybe our batters should step closer to the plate, not only that, but maybe they try hitting the ball the other way.”

    Isn’t it Pentlands job to spot these kind of things and tell the hitters this? Am I wrong?

  91. willmore2000 said

    I didn’t notice it from where I was sitting, but you might be right. Either way, it’s as much the job of the hitter as it is the hitting coach. The hitter is the one that adjusts, not the coach.

  92. Goose said

    Yeah I know, but you think the coach would see this and tell the hitters “Hey, when yeah go up there yeah might want to be looking for the pitch off the outside corner, because he seems to be living there.”

  93. willmore2000 said

    I would think that the hitter can see that anyway. Problem is, guys like Sexson, Beltre, Lopez and even Ichiro are prone to chase after those balls.

    Then again, they might’ve known what was coming, but couldn’t hold up anyway. You never know what is happening out there.

  94. DrDetecto said

    Weaver is awfully tough. Especially ’cause they haven’t seen him. Like his brother, his pitch action and arm action is unusual, and he has an early advantage.

    That 77-81 slider has awesome deception and it has a weird break.

    He also hits an awful lot of mitts with his FB, and weirdly, he also hits the mitt with his slider.

    He’s going to chop up a lot of people before they catch up to him, IMHO.

  95. jason said

    Update: According to Baseballamerica the Rockies signed the Ferrer guy for $250,000. I thought we had signed him.

  96. StandinPat said

    The M’s always seem to have trouble with young recently called up players, whether that pitcher has been hot or not. Its just makes me wonder how much of this can be attributed to poor advanced scouting.

  97. DrDetecto said

    You’re spot on IMHO Pat … but you can’t blame the M’s for having a tough time with Jared Weaver.

    Weaver is simply going to mow people down until they get a chance to see him more.

  98. Advanced scouting can only do so much.

    Tendencies, stuff and recent performances… but that doesn’t mean Weaver isn’t going to mix things up and it’s not like he doesn’t have good stuff.

    There are pitchers with worse stuff that teams have seen 30 times and still can’t hit them.

    Weaver just pitched really well.

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