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28 Days…

Posted by Jason A. Churchill on July 4, 2006

Including July 4, the Seattle Mariners have 28 days to decide, with their performance on the field, whether or not they are buyers or sellers on this year’s trade deadline.

Three games back doesn’t sound like much, but they have two teams to catch. But that’s the bad news. The good news is, Oakland and Texas aren’t very good and certainly not likely to run away and hide.

We’ve talked ad-nausea about which internal moves we’d like to see made, including swapping Carl Everett for Chris Snelling and replacing Joel Pineiro in the starting rotation.

Exhausted are the ideas that make the Seattle Mariners a better ballclub in 2006. Add a bullpen arm or two, seek another middle infielder for the bench, blah, blah, blah.

But what if the Mariners find themselves six or seven games out – with two teams to catch – with the trade deadline just hours away?

Not only is that “sell mode”, it’s semi firesale mode.

Ichiro, Felix, Jose, Johjima, Betancourt, Sexson, Soriano, Sherrill and Putz are all part of the answer. Which means everyone else is either part of the problem or must be included in moves to jump-start the thought process for 2007.

It’s easy to say that the club should trade Adrian Beltre and if they can do so while putting themselves in a better situation, you can bet they will. But let’s be realistic.

The biggest questions are Gil Meche and Jamie Moyer. Moyer would likely turn down a trade unless the club made a handshake agreement on a free-agent contract for 2007. The M’s are very unlikely to do so – they would not agree to such terms a year ago when they had a deal on the table with the Houston Astros for RHP Ezequiel Astacio and 2B Chris Burke.

Meche has pitched fairly well this season and certainly has at least some value on the trade market. If the Mariners are somewhat blown away with an offer for the antagonistic tease, they should, and probably will, jump all over the idea.

But what if the best offer is ho-hum. Not terrible, but nothing of imminent impact.

Does Bill Bavasi do it in ordrer to get something for the pending free agent? Most would say that you absolutely have to get something in return, rather than losing a player for nothing.

Meche’s remaining salary stands at about $1.8 million right now, so he’s not a financial burden in the slightest. This is strictly a baseball decision, and ya know what? I would NOT trade Meche away unless I am getting one or more pieces that are likely to break the 25-man roster in 2007 and/or a prospect package that more than matches market value this summer.

Pitching isn’t available, so Meche may command more than what he’s truly worth on the field. if the club can take advantage of that, they certainly will – who wouldn’t? But anything short of a legit prospect or an everyday big leaguer and I’m holding onto Meche.

Why?

Because he’s pitching well enough right now, and there’s enough evidence to suggest he can sustain his performance enough to finish the year with league-average numbers – or better – across the board, and that means Meche is likely to be a Type B free agent.

Take Meche into the offseason, wait for him to file for free agency, offer him arbitration with the utmost willingness to pay him $5.5-6 million for 2007 and get a first-round draft pick when he signs one of the multi-year offers he is certain to get.

Why am I willing to pay Meche $5.5-6 mil in 2007? Several reasons, starting with the fact that he’s a healthy live arm and even though there are several of those in baseball, not many are starting pitchers and very few are going to be available this winter, neither in free agency nor trade.

With Jarrod Washburn and Felix Hernandez the only starters that are sure to return next spring, the M’s need three arms to fill out the rotation and Meche is much more likely to pitch at a league-average level in 2007 than Francisco Cruceta, Bobby Livingston or Cha Seung Baek.

Moyer’s status will be up in the air, but even if he is re-signed and the M’s luck out and snag Daisuke Matsuzaka, there’s still a hole in the starting five.

If Meche decides to accept arbitration, the M’s have a viable 200-inning starter.to team with Hernandez and Washburn If he bolts for greener pastures, the most likely scenario, the M’s pick up a first-round pick in next June’s draft – expected to be significantly better than the ’06 crop.

Lots to think about with Moyer and Meche, and for the record, I’d prefer to replace his spot in the rotation with either a better pitcher or a cheaper version, so don’t roll off your chair onto your soap box and act like I’m promoting Meche as the savior.

Next up… I’d seriously consider including George Sherrill in a trade if it can finish off an impact deal. Sherrill has been solid this year and is terror versus left-handers, but you can pick up lefty relievers every day of the year. The M’s have much more damning holes to fill. Sherrill may fit in as a nice second piece of a trade that could net the club some more young talent.

Obviously, Jeremy Reed is available and may have enough value to serve as a light-weighted part of a trade. If the M’s deem that Shin-soo Choo does not have a full-time future in Seattle, he carries more value than does Reed, depending on how Choo performs offensively in the bigs during the second half of the season.

Maybe Meche, Sherrill and Reed are worth something solid together? Maybe two of them and a C+ level prospect? Maybe… maybe not. Choo, Meche and Sherrill should be able to bet a worthwhile prospect or a 25-man roster member or two.

If Meche pitches as well in the next three weeks as he has the first three months, the Mariners will likely have one of the best pitchers on the trade market. Good position to be in if you are Bavasi, considering the lack of arms expected to be available.

I smell a deal with the St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers or San Diego Padres. Meche could be a nice addition to the Astros rotation if Brandon Backe is unable to return to form after returning from the disabled list.

Sherrill fits just about any roster and Reed, when he returns from the broken thumb, could be optioned to Triple-A or serve as a fourth outfielder or defensive replacement.

St. Louis is a really good fit for Reed, by the way.

While the M’s are still just three games out of first and a lot of interesting ideas on how to improve the club are going to come about, it might be more interesting to see what Bavasi may do if they think they are out of contention.

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55 Responses to “28 Days…”

  1. Jerry said

    Good points.

    I have to admit that I am torn: on the one hand, I recognize that it is really important for the M’s to regain the respect of Seattle and the rest of the league; on the other, they are still a club that is rebuilding.

    I find myself hoping that they do play it mellow this year. The Perez trade makes me think that Bavasi sees the club as sellers. Trading Asdrubal Cabrera makes absolutely zero sense beyond 2006. Thus, I really doubt that we will see the M’s start selling off veterans unless there is a total meltdown.

    That said, Meche is gaining a lot of trade value. He could net the M’s a nice prospect or two. Since the club is going to need to address a few needs next offseason, it would be really nice to fill one or more of those holes with a young player.

    I think that you can break down the non-untouchable players into three groups:

    Guys who the club should ditch regardless:
    -Mateo
    -Everett
    -Pineiro
    -Guardado

    Guys who have trade value, but who you would only move if you concede that 2006 is a bust:
    -Sherrill
    -Soriano
    -Meche
    -Moyer

    Guys that you would only move in an amazing, crazy offer:
    -Ibanez
    -Washburn
    -Sexson
    -Putz

    Obviously, the group that is the biggest question mark is the second one. The first group are guys who should be moved if possible, with a few candidates to be released. The last group are very unlikely to be traded, as it would take a dumb offer on the other clubs part to make the M’s agree.

    But the biggest issue is Meche. He is young, playing well, and not likely to be on the club in 2007.

    I say, trade him. The Met’s, Cardinals, Yankees, and Dodgers could all be legit options.

    But like you said, you have to weigh whatever the club is offered for Meche versus a first round pick. Because they can always just sit tight and get an extra pick in next years draft.

    Its a tough call though. The biggest risk is alientating the fanbase. The M’s are finally looking pretty good. If the club is even close to contention, there will likely be a backlash if the club trades vets for prospects. And moving any of their trade chips with the best value are all guys that will essentially signal that they have given up on 2006. Lots of people may not like that. I always tend to take the long-term perspective, but I could see McGrath at the Tribune writing some pretty scathing articles. Mariners Revolution would probably run onto the field during a game and light himself on fire. It could get ugly.

    Unless, of course, the M’s go on a nice losing streak, or a nice winning streak. The worst thing that could happen is ending up 4 games back on July 25th.

  2. –The biggest risk is alientating the fanbase–

    The club cannot operate under this type of philosophy. It’s baseball. Yes, it’s a business, but the proof is in the pudding – you win, they show up.

  3. jason2 said

    I’m surprised you didn’t include Betancourt on that part of the answer list. Wow. All the optimism coming into the homestand is fading fast. These guys just don’t seem to handle success very well.

  4. Betancourt should be included, yes. Fixed, thanks Jason.

  5. Dave Cairns said

    Love you comments “Allright, Enough”

    OK I admit my Australian bias but bring on Chris Snelling !!!

    What more can the guy prove in AAA, other than his health ?

  6. No bias needed. He’s among the best three or four bats on the entire 40-man roster. Everett is about 20th.

  7. Seth said

    You failed to mention the best part about possibly falling 6+ games out. Even better than possible changes to help the future roster, we might be able to get rid of the guy who currently fills out the lineup cards!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  8. MatthewCarruth said

    I think you need another group of players besides {Solution, Problem}.

    Ibanez, Bloomquist, Fruto/Green, Woods, Moyer, Meche v3 (the 06 model), and Beltre (Snelling too if you want to include him) are all players I think can be part of a championship team and are not detriments.

    If you want to look ahead, I prefer to go pos by pos:
    Catcher – set for many years
    1st Base – set for 2 more years (system desp. needs impact bats though)
    2nd Base – set for however long they want to keep Lopez around
    3rd Base – set for 3 more year with Beltre. (Tui in the wings?) Beltre either gets you production you are satisfied with or he’s untradeable. Plus it’s not like we have options being held back by him.
    ShortStop – see 2nd base
    Leftfield – set if Snelling is healthy. If Choo can translate his AAA numbers to MLB, he’s a perfect 4th OF/injury backup and you’re set for a few years.
    Centerfield – questionmark
    Rightfield – see 2nd Base
    DH – see 1st Base

    Offense – set with exception of CF and lack of big power bats in farm system
    Defense – good to great with mentioned setup

    Sherrill, Soriano, Putz comprise a dominant half of a bullpen. Woods isn’t terrible as a longman/2nd lefty. Green/Fruto are fine as a 6th man with Fruto having potential for more. A 4th above average K RP would be great.

    And the SP is a jumbled mess as we all know. Felix is there. Moyer is likely there as long as we want him. Does Meche figure in? Do we want him to? Can Washburn be flipped at the end of the year? Will we want to? Can we get Dice-K? Can we sign Zito? Do we want to?

    But, really, you should be able to settle the BP issue easily. The CF is a ? until Jones is ready simply because it’s so hard to find an adequate CF (Ichiro?) and the bench is fine with (Bloomy, Perez, backup C, LH masher, Choo) so basically, you have quite a bit of money (20-25M) and all your attention focused on filling out that rotation.

    I’m quite happy though considering if you:
    -replace Everett with Snelling
    -replace Pineiro with a good SP (like Dice-K)
    and kept everything else the same I think we’re about 6-10 wins better (per WARP) over the course of a full season. Considering our run-diff right now puts us as about a 83 win team, I think we’re in good future shape.**

    **assuming Hargrove is fired and Bavasi doesn’t do something really stupid or brilliant.

  9. Sorry, dude, Beltre is indeed a detriment.

    And the piece wasn’t aimed at who is the solution and who is not, etc, etc. It’s pointed at the buy or sell option the club is playing itself toward.

    We’ve been over and over and over all the good and bad.

    But to say Beltre is not a detriment after looking at his sub .400 SLG and 13 mil salary is a baffling statement.

  10. Edman said

    Imagine…..you’re in a NASCAR race……your engine is overheating. You’re just behind the leader, going into the last lap. I wonder how your owner would feel if you let up on the last lap, bacause you were concerned more about the engine, than winning?

    To somehow find good in giving up, especially while you’re still in the race, is contemptable. Do some of you forget the goal? Isn’t it about winning?

    Imagine the message you send to your players, who’ve just cut themselves a winning streak, that puts them right back in it. Then have Bavasi sit on his hands, because he doesn’t believe in them. Further imagine, the impression you give to future Free Agents, that when winning is in your grasp, you’d rather not take any risks. You really gonna want to rush to sign? I don’t think so.

    The Perez trade was smart, like it or not. It cost little, to improve an offense that struggles against lefthanders. Cabrera, IMHO, will be lucky to hit .260, with doubles power, at best. He’s a great fielder, but isn’t likely to be ANY BETTER than Betancourt…..which is the point. I find it funny that some rip the M’s front office, under Gillick, which couldn’t get a deal done when needed……But rip Bavasi for making a relatively low risk trade, the DOES improve the offense.

    If I’ve learned anything watching this game, it’s that failure results from inaction, more often than success results from inaction.

    Farm system assets can be replaced. You want as strong a system as you can get, but considering that less than 25% of the best prospects ever see considerable time in the majors, it’s a risk worth taking.

    It’s about winning….period. As long as you aren’t trading Adam Jones for overnight help, I have no problems with a trade. But, if you can get a legitimate DH from the left side, and it costs you Blackely, then I won’t cry. I love the kid, but opportunity is at hand.

    As Jason points out…..they need butts in the seats. This isn’t fantasy league, where you have no bills to pay. It’s a business….and successful teams have fans in the seats.

  11. Edman said

    Oh….and for those who somehow don’t get it……PEREZ HAS AN OPTION FOR NEXT YEAR……which means he’s not necessarily a one trick pony.

  12. Thing about the deadline is, they have to analyze how far out is too far to sit on their hands as far as looking to 2007 is concerned.

    The club is going to go on and on about looking for players that can help now and beyond, not just for this year. Perez is NOT a FA after the season unless the M’s choose to buy him out.

    But they will get more offers of prospects for Meche, Sherrill, Mateo, whoever, than they will get offers of proven talent… that’s the nature of the July 31 trade deadline.

    It’s much easier to sell than to buy, and it’s almost impossible to sell and get better at the same time. If they deal Meche, for example, they aren’t going to add a SP in his place that’s a significant upgrade, unless it’s for an older SP – which makes very little sense.

    I spoke to one scout at Cheney Stadium on Monday that said he has heard that at least one AL club is willing to give up their second best prospect for Braves right-hander John Thomsen and reliever Kenny Ray – and that club was NOT the Yankees or Cards, who have terrible farm systems and the second best talent in their orgs wouldn’t be much to part with.

    If Thomsen and Ray is worth a second orthird best prospect from a contending team, and we can probably disqualify Oakland and San Diego as well, leaving NYM, LAD, SF, CWS, DET, CIN and BOS, what might Meche get the M’s?

    A big-league scout for an AL Central club:

    “Maybe something very similar… if they play it right. He’s got better stuff than Thomsen and the more he pitches well the higher the price. Maybe LA (Dodgers) will jump on Meche. He fits what they need. Perez isn’t giving them anything even when he’s healthy enough to throw and they have all kinds of talent to offer. Maybe Scott Elbert for Gil Meche?

    “It’s possible that they (LAD) go for the gusto and try and snag Zito, but he’d come unsigned and Willis isn’t on the block. Thomsen, Meche, Byrd in Cleveland… there’s not a lot out there to go get. Schmidt probably isn’t going anywhere, I know we have talked with San Fran but they are still in it and probably will be too close to be trading away Jason.

    “It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Gil Meche is the most talented arm available at the deadline after Zito. Though if the Jays struggle at all up until that point, Ted Lilly would be a great get for a contender.”

    It’s a good year for Meche to kinda break out. But it’s imperative, for every reason imaginable – for himself, the club’s chances and his trade value – that he stays consistent and flashes the ability to go seven innings.

  13. Allen Jacobs said

    Edman, have to respectfully disagree with your points on the Perez for Cabrera deal.

    First, Perez is 36 and while he has had a good first half, what is the likelihood he can maintain that pace in the 2nd half or into next year? He is also a DH/PH only guy when we have 2 other players – Everett and Petegine – who are also people we wouldn’t want in the field. As good as he is against lefties he is equally bad against righties. Seems pretty one dimensional to me.

    On what basis do you think Cabrera will be lucky to hit .260? Surely you are looking beyond his performance in half a season at Tacoma after skipping a level and only playing a couple of months at High A in 2005. He is 20 yrs old.

    While acquiring Perez was additive to the M’s offensively, the issue is really with the price Bavasi paid. It would appear to me that guys like Perez could have been had for a Morse, Mateo or Johnson.

    The Seattle press writers commonly wrote about the M’s so called depth at the middle infield. But beyond Cabrera, what other players would realistically be considered playable depth? Morse – really a 3rd baseman or LF, Navarro – can’t hit, Garciaparra – can’t hit anything beyond singles and probably doesn’t have the glove as a long-term SS, Castro – no consistency with the bat since short season A and can’t play SS.

    I agree action is better than action, I would merely like to see Bavasi get fair value for the few legitimate prospects the M’s develop.

  14. Why are you worried about depth at shortstop? While it’s great to have, the Mariners have zero need for a shortstop for the next several years, so the position itself is moot.

    Cabrera is most likely headed for second base for the Tribe anyways, but the point is, you don’t avoid trading someone because you want to keep the depth at his position. You can argue that the M’s gave up a little too much, but it’s far from a fleecing and the fact that the club is now void of a viable future big-league shortstop is a fact that simply does not make a difference right now.

    You’ll probably see the club draft a few college middle infielders over the next year or two and they do have a kid down in Peoria that’s pretty exciting.

    And if Perez could have been had for Morse or Mateo- it would have happened. The M’s valued Cabrera over all three. I would rather trade Cabrera, in general terms, than Johnson right now. There’s no guarantee that Clement ends up the catcher of the future and Johjima is already 30 years old.

  15. Allen Jacobs said

    Because we an injury away from having Bloomquist as our everyday SS or 2nd baseman.

  16. Edman said

    It’s a LUXURY to have Cabrera sitting in Tacoma, just in case. A team wouldn’t trade anyone, if that was their operating philosophy.

    Season is half over. You can’t worry about “what if” someone gets hurt. Cabrera wasn’t tearing the cover off the ball (meaning he’s not ready for the bigs). What are the chances of Betencourt getting a “CAREER” ending injury? Betancourt likely stays healthy the rest of the seaon. Something does happen, you can always make a trade for a veteran infielder to finish out the season……but that’s worse case.

    I’m sick of all this overhype of Cabrera. He’s good, in our system, but that doesn’t make him “GREAT” in all of baseball. He’ll field his position just fine…..but, he’s not even in baseball’s top ten infield prospects. Don’t fall too in love with your prospects……it will lead to failure.

  17. Edman said

    As for trading Meche…….if he’s pitching well, keep him, provided you are in the race. If you don’t see a future for him….fine, let someone overpay him in the offseason, and take their number one pick (assuming they are in the bottom fifteen).

    I really don’t see any team overpaying to get Meche. Unless you get offered a “CAN’T MISS” prospect, there is no real gain. You aren’t gonna get back anything of equal value for this season.

    I’d rather take a shot at the division, than worry about “value” for Meche. Winning is more important than prospects…..period. You’re out of the race, fine. But, you have to take a shot, especially this season, where there is no clear leader in the division.

  18. 1996Coug said

    Plucking a top prospect from the Dodgers system for Meche should be a priority for Bavasi. And no one in that system should be unfamilar to the man.

    Jason – who would you insist on and why?

  19. Iggy said

    Were Lopez or Betancourt to get injured this year and we still had Cabrera, Bloomquist would still get the nod.

    I don’t think they would have viewed Cabrera as even a remote option until at least next year.

  20. jtopps said

    Some good posts all around. If Meche doesn’t completely fall apart this second half (or even in the next month) he’s going to have a lot of value. I am ok with either trading him at peak value or offering him arbitration and getting a pick for him.

    I have said it before, if I were an NL GM I would be going after Gil. Substitute out a DH for a pitcher and Gil is going to put up some great numbers. This is one case where I wouldn’t mind an ex-Mariner doing well somewhere else, provided we get some good talent in return.

  21. C. Cheetah said

    Jason,
    Are the Mariners even talking to Francisco Perez? I would think having King Felix and now Eduardo Perez on the big squad would give them a leg up?

  22. Jerry said

    1996 Coug,

    The Dodgers farm system is one of the top 3 in baseball. They have graduated a lot of players to the big leagues (Russ Martin, Chad Billingsley, and Matt Kemp), but they still have a lot of talent.

    For instance, the guy that Jason mentioned from the discussion with the scout, Scott Elbert, was ranked as their #6 prospect in the offseason. He would be #3 or #4 in our system, and neck and neck with Morrow for best pitcher in the organization. He is in High A right now, and doing really well. He will probably get a promotion to AA this year. He is good.

    The Dodgers have a lot of talent. Almost too many to list.

  23. DrDetecto said

    Good stuff. Rock-solid on the Meche dilemma especially IMHO.

    Three-four days ago nobody woulda been worried about being sellers, and personally I’m still assuming they’ll be buyers.

    But should they be sellers, gotta agree with the thoughtline in the article. Kudos.

  24. westfried said

    Edman – interesting NASCAR analagy. I like it.

    Only, I think you need to tweak it a little, because we’re nowhere near the last lap. Figure lap 150 (out of 200) at the Indy 500. With the engine overheating, pushing the last 125 miles could blow up the engine, maybe injure the driver, and possibly wreck the car for the next few years.

    Given that, do you back off, or go for it?

    You’re right, that sometimes you have to push through the danger zone to get the win. But 1 lap, or say 10 games, is one thing. 75 games is another. There’s still so much time left, anything can happen.

    Not saying which way is better. Just changing the immediacy. I do Ironman triathlons. I know I can push hard at mile 18 of the run. If I blow up, I’m near enough to the end. But at mile 2? Or even mile 80 of the bike? A mistake there could jeopardize more than the race.

    1 lap left, you push. 50 laps… it’s a different question.
    -r

  25. StandinPat said

    If you are still in it and Meche is still pitching well, I think you still hold on to him. He can actaully help your team this year, and still net you a prospect int he offseason. However, if he dips a little, or the offer is overwelming I’d def have to consider it. As far as a trade with the Dodgers, I’d look at LaRoche, and then try to find somewhere, anywhere to dump Beltre. Maybe for a high priced veteran pitcher?

  26. Jerry said

    Pat,

    LaRoche recently tore his labrum. So that rules him out, effectively.

    I think that Edman’s comments really sum up what the M’s have to be worried about. If they fall out of contention a bit (which looks like what is currently happening) they are faced with a tough decision: sit tight or sell? If they sell, the types of criticisms that Edman brought up with become very very common. I think that that is how most normal fans will view trading a guy like Meche.

    Would it be the best thing for the club? Almost definitely. But the M’s front office is far more sensative to PR issues than we are, especially after two 90+loss seasons.

    For me, it comes down to the decision between trade candidates versus a free draft pick.

    If, say, the Dodgers were willing to give up Elbert for Meche (or in some sort of package), you have to make that trade. Elbert is a lot better than your average mid to late first rounder will be. He is better and more advanced.

    Another interesting club could be Houston. If the Astros decide to make a real run (and they are in that position), a Meche for Jason Hirsch trade would be awesome. The M’s would be getting a guy with a little less upside, but someone who could start for them out of spring training next year. For the M’s, that is one huge hole filled immediately.

    It will be really really interesting to see how the next two or three weeks play out.

    As we have discussed several times before, the M’s face a lot of tough teams in the next few weeks. Here is who they play, and that clubs current record:

    -Detroit (.667) 3 games
    -AS break
    -at Toronto (.566) 3 games
    -at NYY (.568) 3 games
    -Boston (.617) 3 games
    -Toronto (.566) 3 games
    -at Cleveland (.476) 3 games

    Buy the time the club is off to Cleveland, the front office should have a real good idea of where this club stands in relation to the best teams out there. All the uncertainty about the level of competition during the M’s run against the NL West will be resolved by then.

    Who knows. Maybe the M’s will play well and take over 1st place. But there is a real strong chance that the M’s are going to have their asses handed to them by the Tigers, Red Sox and Yankees.

    Regardless, we should know where they stand soon.

  27. Beady Eyes said

    Edman: Agree 100% with you on Cabrera. We had to make some kind of move to address our weakness against southpaws and we did it without giving up more than a SS/2B who would be blocked for the foreseeable future.

  28. Beady Eyes said

    Edman:

    Still feeling good about Crazy Carl now that he’s reverting to the Carl of old? He’s pissed, he feels like a victim for some reason and I can’t imagine having an angry Carl is good for the clubhouse.

    Thoughts?

  29. jp17 said

    The above comes from a guy who worships Gillick and his ruining of farm systems.

  30. Beady Eyes said

    No Revolution. If the prospect is something special, you keep him (i.e. – moving Jones to CF, moving Tui to 3B). Lopez and Betancourt are so young, that they will only get BETTER over time. When you have the chance to win and add a piece to give the team a shot at improving you take it. They didn’t give up Clement (nor should they unless we are going to get the next Francisco Liriano or Johan Santana) or Jones or Snelling did they? No, they gave up a kid with some upside, but no place to go for a bench player who can tear up lefties.

    There’s no fleecing going on. None whatsoever. Too bad you seem to think that.

  31. JasonAChurchill said

    Once again, Logan the moronic idiot shows up and wonders us all with his illogical logic.

    One word, dude. You missed one word and it screwed up yopur entire brain.

    “Just.”

    You don’t avoid trading a player JUST to avoid losing the depth at that spot.

    And ya know what? Here’s rason No. 5,492,339 why you are a total jackass idiot.

    Comparing Cabrera’s situation as a shortstop in the system and the Clement-Johnson situation is the dumbest thing you have ever said – and that is a major accomplishment.

    Clement may not even stick at catcher… Johnson may be the ONLY actual catching prospect the club has.

    Dude, seriously, I will end your blog if you don’t stay away from posting here.

    You are, plain and simple, the biggest dumbass on the Seattle sports net.

    You’re an ambulance chaser with a keyboard.

    Go the fuck away.

  32. If anyone here notices a Mariners Revolution post here, please let me know. He’s not allowed here anymore. For plain stupidity alone.

    If he posts here again, i’m going to make a house call.

  33. Re: Dodgers spects…

    I’d ask for Guzman or Elbert first since there is no way theyd eal Billingsley or Martin who are already in the bigs.

    Kemp would be No. 3 on my list, but he too is going to be off limits unless the return is Barry Zito or Dontrelle Willis.

    If LAD said no to Guzman or Elbert and stuck to it, I think I’d tell them too bad, no Meche.

    In the end, however, I’d accept a Blake Dewitt+Ching-Hun Lu combo… but Elbert would be target No. 1 for me with Guzman a close second.

  34. Seth said

    I hate Gil so much. I know I’m in the SEVERE majority, but I’d even rather have Pinero pitching than Meche.

    My favorite Meche story goes a little something like this…

    Me and my friends were playing NCAA Football last year and while it was simming I fliped over to see how the M’s were doing.

    “I wonder who’s pitching,” I said. “Oh GREAT, it’s Gil F&%$ing Meche.”

    “What’s the problem?” my friend questioned.

    “Gil Meche is the TERRIBLE. Watch he’ll give up a homerun right here.” I said, despite having the other team’s #8 hitter up.

    Next pitch…CRACK!!! There it goes!!!!

    All I could do is shake my head in sorrow with my friends laughing their asses off.

    Anyway…

    If we’re able to steal ANY good prospect (especially a SP prospect) for Meche I’d be estatic.

  35. That’s preposterous, Seth.

    Every piece of evidence on the planet show Meche is better than Pineiro, so why, in the name of your favorite baseball team, would you rather have Pineiro on the hill?

    Personal feelings shouldn’t get in the way of what’s actually best.

    Just ask dawgncarolina about the Cabrera trade.

  36. StandinPat said

    It cant just be any good prospect. It has to be someone who has the equilivent talent level of a mid to late first round pick, or someone not too far away from the bigs.

  37. Considering the chances of a first round pick making an impact in the bigs, I’d take one good prospect at any level above shortseason.

  38. C. Cheetah said

    Jason,
    What are you hearing that the Angels are asking for / will probably get for Weaver? Are M’s even in conversation?
    Would Weaver be good enough based on past 2 years performance to get a compensatory pick if lost as free agent?
    Also, are you hearing anything about Francisco Perez? Would love for the M’s to get him, especially if any chance Clement becomes 1B / DH.

  39. Edman said

    Beady Eyes……I don’t know where the impression is that I have some great desire to keep him on the team. Never the less, I had no problem when he was a good soldier. But, now he’s not. I was waiting to see how he’d view the trade for Perez. I’m betting that’s what’s triggered his latest tirade.

    Carl has looked much worse, lately. He’s been swinging at pitches he didn’t a month ago. He’s nearly as bad and Beltre in that regard.

    If I were Bavasi, and the above was the case, I’d try desparately to move him today….which isn’t likely. Then, if no takers, DFA him tomorrow, or maybe before the game. He’s got no leg to stand on, in regard to his playing time. If he’s going to make himself a distraction, he’s got to go. It gives Bavasi solid enough reason with the players, to send him packing.

    Snelling’s ready for the DH role……..no need to block him for a guy who is more self-centered, than he is a teammate.

  40. I have not heard anything about the M’s and Weaver, probably because LAA is surely to wanna deal him out of the division.

    Right now the frontrunner is San Diego, and Weaver won’t be more than a Type C FA and there is no way a club is going o offer him arby in order to get the draft pick anyways. Because if he accepts, he’ll get 8-9 mil, easily.

    re: Perez

    Not hearing anything about his status.

  41. StandinPat said

    Jason,

    Seeing LaHair in person the last couple of games, whats your take on him as a prospect? Seems like he just keeps raising his stock every year.

  42. Yeah, 2006 Gil Meche reminds me SOOO much of 2002 Freddy Garcia. I wanted the M’s to trade him at the deadline back then pretty badly. But (just to spite me šŸ˜‰ they held onto him and kept him around for a miserable 2003 season. They got some value out of him in 2004 — and, perhaps, it was about the same value they could’ve gotten out of him two years prior.

    I still gotta wonder how much more the July – Sept. ’06 versions of Gil Meche + Joel Pineiro help the club’s chances of contention than July – Sept. ’06 Cruceta + Jimenez (or B-Liv, or another team’s SP, or what have you).

    Heh. I’d probably yell at you in person for the comment:

    Sherrill has been solid this year and is terror versus left-handers, but you can pick up lefty relievers every day of the year.

    You hint that GS52 is an easily-replacable commodity. I’d beg to differ, of course, but I think we do agree that he does have some trade value. And, to be clear, I’ve said all along that the “Free George Sherrill” campaign was founded upon the notion that if the M’s weren’t going to use him properly, then they need to trade him to a team that would. It’s obvious that Hargrove has no intention on using George properly — at least outside of a defined set of guidelines that keeps Hargrove comfortable.

    Just like I asked (over at Dr. D’s) about the list of guys who were:

    a) Available to the M’s
    b) Veteran, MLB-proven
    c) Hargrove-friendly
    d) Consistently performing in MLB THIS YEAR?

    I’d ask the same question about George. I’m sure there’s a list, but it’d be quite short, and the M’s wouldn’t be the only ones looking for that player. The Replacement-level player theory is mostly valid, until you actually try to find one that indeed isn’t very expensive. The REAL cost to REAL GMs is somewhat more expensive.

    Don’t get me wrong — I’m not convinced you see George as a replacement-level pitcher. I don’t think I’m reading that much into your statement. But you do hint that players like George are a dime a dozen, and I’m not convinced of that at all. Especially in the M’s farm system. I’ll defer, of course, to your expertise, but I don’t really see a pitcher in the M’s farm system that could come up and throw up the numbers that George has (vs. lefties especially). Jimenez might be able to hold his own in a LOOGY role, and doesn’t seem to give up HRs. But he’s definitely not the strikeout machine that George is against lefties (or any other hitter for that matter). While there may be a plethora of lefty RP-types, I’m not sure how deep the pool is with guys who can put up George’s numbers.

  43. Seth said

    Ya, I know it’s stupid that I think Pinero is better than Meche. I’ll admit to that. But for some reason I just can’t give Meche one ounce of respect. I think it’s due to the fact that there was a time when Pinero was actually good, and Meche has really never been any better than alright.

    It’s not like I’m talking up Pinero. I don’t want either of them on the team.

    It’s kinda like that one South Park episode when the school is electing a new mascot and the two candidates are a giant douche and a turd sandwich. It’s a lose-lose situation. šŸ™‚

  44. LaHair is ok. He’s not going to be an everyday first baseman, though. I think he’s Todd Hollandsworth at the plate, which isn’t something to knock, but…

    Just wait until the pitchers make the adjustment to him in AAA. Lefties will eat him alive and he’ll come up with even fewer xbh.

  45. That, Seth, was classic. Great line.

  46. Beady Eyes said

    Ed: I didn’t think you wanted him anymore than the rest of us, just decided to throw that out there to gauge your current opinion. I remember we went back and forth on that and I just wanted to see if we were on the same page.

    I like your posts, your a pretty knowledgable guy. Thanks for the response.

  47. Beady Eyes said

    Meche or Pineiro? I go with Meche as much as he bugs me. Watching how Joel handles himself and the fact he will NOT take responsibility for his bad pitching is as frustrating as how he actually PITCHES.

    Meche is a good 4th starter. Not great, not awful as some say. I guess Meche is what they call serviceable?

  48. Beady Eyes said

    It’s funny, I keep checking around every hour to see if Carl’s gone. I never do this kind of thing, but I really think he’s finally worn out his welcome (if he was ever welcome to begin with).

    Time to shake things up and get rid of the two whiners, Carl and Eddie, demote Pineiro to bullpen and bring up Cruceta and Snelling.

  49. Unfortunately, Joel is going to make his next start on Friday, apparently because Chaves and Hargrove want to wait until after the break to make a change, including the order of the rotation.

  50. borting said

    When Pineiro came out of the pen the other night he threw a 92 and 94 mph fastball right past the batter, why don’t we see the power pitching from him like that when he first came up with the M’s? and if he can’t do it starting, Why not stick him in the pen in place of Mateo or Woods?

  51. willmore2000 said

    Jason, what do you know about Juan Ramirez ? He pitched 6 no-hit innings today, walking just 2 and striking out 8 for the VSL team.

  52. willmore2000 said

    Jason, is it time to upgrade Rohrbaugh into the top 3 pitching prospects the Mariners have ? After Morrow and Feierabend ?

  53. Rohrbaugh? Nah.

    Let’s see what he does long term in AA before we make him a legit Top 10 guy (top 5 5SP)…

    His stuff just isn’t that good.

    Re: Ramirez

    I don’t really know much about him other than he’s a fastball, curveball, slider guy whom the club wants to swap one of his breaking balls for a change.

  54. Michael Sayler said

    mark lowe get’s the call!!!

    Now hopefully the Mariners rookie jinx will not hit him.

  55. 1996Coug said

    Jason-

    Would it be worthwhile to try and talk to the Phillies about how we might both benefit from trading with each other? They have many nice pieces that just don’t seem to want to fit together, ie Myers, Abreu, Rowand, etc.

    I like Myers despite the fact that he clubbed his wife the other night. He’d be nice insurance, in case we don’t get the guy from Japan (I’ll spare you my spelling skills). A new start in Seattle would make easy for him. Plus, they require a long term solution at 3B. Beltre??

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