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Gil Meche: Top Trade Target?

Posted by Jason A. Churchill on July 15, 2006

All it takes is a peak around the league to see that Seattle Mariners right-hander Gil Meche might just be one of the most sought after trade targets on the market over the next two weeks.

Whether GM Bill Bavasi sees a deal that makes sense for a club sitting three games back in a winnable division, is another story in itself. But there’s no doubt to be created – Meche is one of the best starting pitchers that could be changing addresses at the end of the month.

Furthermore, the 27-year-old might be the very best value of any of those rumored to be available this summer. Considering overall performance, age, contract status, recent trend, pure ability and stuff as well as current salary and what it might take to land each pitcher, Meche is an absolute gem.

Combining mainstream rumors and a few back channel cell feeds, I came up with the eight most likely starting pitchers to get moved by this year’s July 31 trade deadline, including Mr. Meche, for analysis purposes, of course.

Oakland’s Barry Zito and San Francisco’s Jason Schmidt top the list in pure talent, but both arms will cost a pretty penny, and the Giants have the leverage of being in the race. Athletics’ GM Billy Beane says he’d trade Zito whether they were in first place or last place, depending on what the return might be.

Milwaukee’s Doug Davis, Chicago’s Greg Maddux, Washington’s Livan Hernandez and Phillies’ starters Cory Lidle and Jon Lieber fill out the crop – with Meche.

Dontrelle Willis is not going to be moved, though Dodgers southpaw Odalis Perez, who was recently told that the club was not trying to deal him, may be on the block anyways. If the Colorado Rockies were smart, they’d deal Byung-hyun Kim while he has some value, but the Rockies are in the market for some bullpen help instead, so Kim is off the market, as Jason Jennings and Toronto’s Ted Lilly – with the Jays knocking on the door of the big two.

Trade Deadline
PLAYERS AGE ’06 $$ 2007 2006 STATS FIP
Barry Zito, LHP 28 $8.5 FA 9-6, 3.30 ERA, 131 IP, 95 K, 61 BB, .236 BAA 4.45
Jason Schmidt, RHP 33 $10.5m FA 6-5, 2.78 ERA, 126 IP, 105 K, 42 BB, .216 BAA 3.49
Gil Meche, RHP 27 $3.8m FA 9-4, 3.87 ERA, 116 IP, 95 K, 48 BB, .248 BAA 4.31
Doug Davis, LHP 30 $3.2m ARB3 5-6, 4.95 ERA, 111 IP, 82 K, 61 BB, .264 BAA 4.81
Greg Maddux, RHP 40 $9.0m FA 7-9, 4.89 ERA, 110 IP, 62 K, 20 BB, .285 BAA 4.98
Livan Hernandez, RHP 31 $8.0m $7.0m 6-8, 5.94 ERA, 114 IP, 66 K, 48 BB, .308 BAA 6.49
Jon Lieber, RHP 36 $7.25m $7.5m 3-6, 5.47 ERA, 72 IP, 44 K, 10 BB, .282 BAA 5.72
Cory Lidle, RHP 34 $3.3m FA 5-7, 4.95 ERA, 104 IP, 83 K, 34 BB, .281 BAA 5.56

As you can see, traditional statistics show that Zito and Schmidt are the only pitchers in the group having a better season than Meche. But the FIP numbers indicate that Zito has been greatly helped by his defense – to the tune of more than a run per nine innings. Fielding Independent Pitching is a statistic designed to judge how the pitcher performed regardless of how his defense played behind him. The formula is complicated and certainly not the point here, but there are league factors taken into consideration as well.

Meche’s 4.31 FIP is second only to Schmidt’s 3.49, which is a great beginning. But Meche’s value goes much further than that.

He’s six years younger than Schmidt, which only matters if the acquiring club is interested in re-signing their deadline acquisition. But it’s certainly in Meche’s favor with every other pitcher, except Zito, who’s just 28, a year older than Meche.

Meche’s salary is also a plus. He’s due just $3.85 million this season, assuming he reaches 190, 200 and 210 innings pitched. He can earn another $75,000 if he stretched out to 220 innings. Only Lidle and Davis are owed less in 2006 salary.

Hernandez and Lieber not only come with the baggage of horrible recent track record, but also that of another year on their contracts. Both are due more than $7 million in 2007 – not an attractive aspect of each hurlers trade value.

Lidle is 34 and certainly not a good candidate to turn his season around, while Maddux will have veto rights, via the courtesy of the Chicago Cubs.

Schmidt may or may not become available, but most industry sources think the Giants will hang on to the right-hander and make a run for the division title. Giants owner Peter McGowan and GM Brian Sabean know as well as anyone that they are at the end of the line with the current corps. They’ll likely keep Schmidt and deal with his pending free agency in December.

The Brewers are still somewhat in the race being just three games back in the wildcard race, though they have five teams to pass to make the postseason. Doug Davis is an interesting case. He’s somewhat of a power pitcher with control problems, but he’s not owed much cash (a pro-rated $3.2m) and is under club control for one more season.

Davis could be extremely attractive to clubs such as the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Texas Rangers or Toronto Blue Jays. His handedness, low salary and contract status make him a prime target — but the biggest doubt is whether Milwaukee will even be interested in trading the 30-year-old. Smart money says they hang onto him and look to trade him this winter when more teams get in the bidding.

While Hernandez, Lieber and Lidle are garbage and the former two expensive trash at that, Maddux having value only to teams he wishes and Schmidt being much more likely to stay with his currently contending club, that leaves Barry Zito and Gil Meche.

Zito is a primo front-line arm, at least that’s the way he’s seen by most clubs, including the Yankees, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Mets, the four teams most likely to make a run at the 2002 Cy Young winner. But only one of those clubs can land him, leaving the other three to choose between the above stated junk, other junk not mentioned here, or Mr. Meche.

The question of what Meche is actually worth is not relevant here at all. The questions are whether Bavasi will trade him, knowing the chances of catching three teams in the AL West are slimmer than Tracey Gold on a diet, and what the M’s can get in return for the enigmatic-turned-ace.

I’ve talked quite a bit here at PI about what the M’s should seriously consider, and that’s taking Meche into free agency, offering his arbitration with the willingness to bring him back at a similar number to what Joel Pineiro is making this year ($6.3m), or get a minimum of a first round draft pick from the club that offers Meche two or more guaranteed years — and there will be more than one team looking to make that sort of splash on a 28-year-old with a plus fastball a plus curve and a strong 2006 effort.

But the decision won’t be easy. The M’s are just three back, and while they do sit in fourth place in a four-team division, one good week could change all that and they could find themselves in first or second place on July 31 — very easily.

The return for Meche will have to fit the needs of the 2007 Seattle Mariners. Just getting a prospect or two won’t do. The prospects involved will have to be big-league ready, or very close to breaking through. Bavasi would probably prefer to get at least one young and proven major leaguer in such a deal, in addition to a promising minor leaguer with talents that fill a hole in the farm system (hint – pitcher, power hitter).

But the M’s are in the driver’s seat this time around and if they do decide to trade Gil Meche, Bavasi will, for the first time, have a major league talent with high value — and extreme demand — in which to deal.

The voices around the game think the M’s should trade Meche while he has value, but the same baseball people don’t believe Bavasi will pull the trigger.

One NL front office executive on the idea: “If you are chasing three teams in your own division, that’s a tough choice to make. Being a few games back on July 31… you really can’t throw in the towel. But six or seven (games back) is death in that situation, or if the club falls four or five games behind all three clubs ahead of them. it’s harder to convince the fans that it’s the right thing to do, but it really is and you have to do what’s right.
“They really should be talking right now as if they are selling, and it sounds to me like Billy (Bavasi) is covering all of the bases – just in case. And Meche isn’t the only name being talked about. He may have decisions to make on a few other bigger names as well.”

Hopefully, the Seattle Mariners 25-man roster finds a way to remove the choice. Ideally, the club goes on a winning streak over the next couple weeks and solidifies their chance at staying in serious contention, in which Meche would be going nowhere and Bavasi then turns to the thought of adding help by trading some youth, or they fall flat on their faces, making it the easiest decision of the year… besides firing Mike Hargrove and designating Carl Everett for assignment.

But those are two separate stories for two separate days.

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96 Responses to “Gil Meche: Top Trade Target?”

  1. AK1984 said

    As far as I’m concerned, Gil Meche’s trade value is currently located in the upper-tier among starting pitchers — along with Barry Zito, Dontrelle Willis, and Jason Schmidt — who might be dealt prior to the trading deadline; thus, in my personal opinion, Meche should net the Seattle Mariners a couple of top-notch prospects such as starting pitcher Philip Hughes (Trenton Thunder {AA}: 2.75 ERA; 1.04 WHIP; 76/23 K:BB Ratio) and third baseman Eric Duncan (Trenton Thunder {AA}: .250/.351/.466) of the New York Yankees.

    As it is, though, the Yankees are unlikely to trade either Hughes or Duncan, much less both of them, to the M’s for Meche; besides, Hughes and/or Duncan will probably be involved in a trade wherein the Yankees acquire right fielder Bobby Abreu (2006: $13,000,000; 2007: $15,000,000; 2008: $16,000,000 or $2,000,000 buyout) from the Philadelphia Phillies.

  2. Iggy said

    “…slimmer than Tracey Gold on a diet”

    Ouch, anorexia joke.

    Do you think the M’s would offer Meche arbitration? Does that even affect their thinking? Getting a draft pick vs. trading?

    I’m in full favor of trading Meche myself – The first two months of the season had everyone saying it was the same old Meche and he should be DFA. Now, after a very good / great June; he’s a valuable chip. Cash in while you can.

  3. Katal said

    I’d also advocate trading Meche, especially if it meant netting a Hughes-level prospect.

    Even if we held onto him, there still isn’t much of a chance that we’d make the playoffs, and the compensatory draft pick we’d get after some other club signs him away wouldn’t be able to help us for a few years. I think the Mariners have a shot at being a strong team in 2007 and 2008, and I want a prospect who can contribute then.

    Everyone was ecstatic about Bavasi bringing in Reed/Olivo/Morse for us when he traded Garcia, even if those players haven’t worked out as well as we might have hoped. Let’s let him make a similar trade again.

  4. Matthew said

    The difference above was that we all knew Garcia had zero chance of returning to the Ms after that year and the Ms were going no where so it was basically adding Reed/Olivo/Morse for free. (or drafting them with the comp picks we would have gotten)

    This time, the Ms are in contention and there may be a chance that Meche actually prefers to stay in Seattle than leave and, at minimum, certainly no public knowledge of him being unsatisfied with Seattle.

    At this point, I really wouldn’t mind extending Meche with a, say 2 year, 13M deal. All contingent on what offers Bavasi can get of course. Suffice to say, my barometer would be it has to be a bigger haul than what Garcia wrought at the time.

  5. The Yankees would certainly deal Duncan for Meche… but I wouldn’t want him. He’s terrible.

  6. Jack Landerstrom said

    I say deal Meche. What if you give him that 2 year, 13m contract and he gives you two years similar to 2004 and 2005? There goes his value. Should of traded him in 2006.

  7. 1996Coug said

    Jason, you’re exactly right. They have someone others want and ought to ask for the right pieces. They need to be shrewed. I have my reservations about Bavasi’s ability, but if he pulled a great deal off and built the 2007 team into something legit, he’d have my respect and admiration.

    Meche is having that predictable career season for the contract. His track record doesn’t warrant us signing him past this season. Let him succeed somewhere else.

  8. germpod said

    I do not have faith that Meche will keep this up, not for any real reason, just how I feel. If a good package comes along, I would be in favor of it.

  9. taro said

    You would need to be blown away to give away a #2,#3 American league starter. You’d have to get some of the best young talent in baseball (low risk, high return types) in return to even consider trading him away for prospects. What we’d be realistically looking for in return is a hitter (our only hole is the DH spot vs righties which can be covered by Snelling/FA/minor trade) or a pitching prospect (extremely high risk, and you are not going to get anybody better than Meche right now). Our biggest hole is top-end starting pitching and I just don’t see how trading Meche would be a step forward.

    Personally I don’t let Meche go into FA and risk having to pay him premium dollars (in the case that he reverts to bad Meche). 3 years, $16 million is on the table RIGHT NOW.

  10. This is the biggest “Damned if you do; damned if you don’t” scenario, really. I’m in the camp that believes that the M’s biggest hole in 2006 and 2007 is quality starting pitching. Being so young, the offense tends to be quite streaky. Give ’em another year or so, and our offense will be playoff-caliber (even if Beltre never finds his power again).

    Give Cameron and the rest of the USSM folks credit — they’re trying to determine how risky of an investment the Meche of 2007 and beyond would be. That’s a lot of the value that stathead-analysis provides — investment risk determinition.

    After watching most of the past several starts from Meche, I truly believe that he has turned a corner, and he can only get better and more confident from here on out. I’ll admit to be worried, but considering his past especially, who wouldn’t be.

    Bottom line — it’ll cost MUCH more to replace Meche either via trade or free agency $$$. If the M’s stables were stocked full of can’t-miss thoroughbreds (and Meche were the only hole that would be opened in the rotation), it’s a no-brainer to trade Meche. But since the cupboards are relatively bare (though there are a few guys who could be ready in 2008) and there is more than one hole in the rotation, you have to ride the Meche horse as long as you can.

    Unless, of course, a Kazmir/Zambrano-like trade comes up. That’s the ONLY scenario in which I trade him.

  11. MatthewCarruth said

    “What if you give him that 2 year, 13m contract and he gives you two years similar to 2004 and 2005?”

    And what if he gives you two more years like 2006 has been?

    And if he did repeat 2004 and 2005, that’s still 4.2 WARP, worth about 6M so if he totally imploded and reverted to terrible Meche, you’d have overpaid about 3M per year. Big whoop. If he maintained that ~6.5 WARP per year pace he’s on right now, you know what that’s worth? 13M…

    …per year.

    I’d be satisfied with 2/13M, if they got him for around 3/16M I’d do backflips.

  12. germpod said

    I am not willing to bank on him not reverting back to 04-05 Meche. If you are able to cash in on a hot streak, then go for it. He is not a #2 or #3 type pitcher, you can depend on them year after year. He is on a streak where he is pitching like that kind o pitcher, but you can not pass up a good deal when he is more the likely going to return to his old self.

    Does anybody have any oppinions on why he is not going to revert, what is he doing different between old Meche and new?

  13. Ty said

    Personally, I’m still on the, “sell Meche high” wagon. I don’t feel like we should all be jumping on the Gil Meche bandwagon after one good month of June… I just don’t see Gil keeping this up next year. He’s still pitching behind smoke and mirrors. We’ll see how long that lasts, but if we went ahead and signed him to a 2 or 3 year contract… Eh.

    But hey, hopefully I’m totally wrong and he becomes the number 2 or 3 starter we wish we had. I just feel that it’s too unlikely.

  14. Willmore said

    Buy low, sell high. Meche is high (more ways than one ?), so we should sell. An opportunity like this does not come twice. We can seriously get top prospects. Everyone needs starting pitching, and with Meche being a top starting pitcher, he will start a bidding war at the deadline, if he keeps up his performance. I would not be shocked if we got a ML-ready starter, a potential TOR starter and a potential MOTO bat in this deal.

    PS: Hargrove is an idiot, Everett is batting against his second consecutive lefty.

  15. Willmore said

    Oh thank god, it was just the gameday thing. Perez actually pinch hit. Halleluja !

  16. Willmore said

    And we lose.

  17. Jerry said

    I agree that we should trade Meche. That is a no-brainer to me. Resigning him is an easy decision.

    However, I have to wonder how much the M’s could get for him.

    Obviously, if the Yanks are offering Phillip Hughes for him, you take that deal. Hughes is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball right now. If the Mets offer Mike Pelfrey, or the Dodgers are willing to give up Scott Elbert, those are also no-brainers.

    However, those are all top-tier prospects. I would be suprised if any of those clubs were willing to give up that type of talent for Meche.

    The M’s are in a good position. As Jason pointed out, Meche will get multi-year offers in free agency. If the M’s hold onto him for the remainder of the season, they can and should offer him arbitration. Meche should at least be a type B free agent, so the M’s would get a first or second round pick as compensation.

    Guys like Pelfrey, Hughes, and Elbert (or other equal talents) are more valuable then first rounders. But if those types of guys aren’t an option – which is likley – the M’s might be smart to just hold on to him.

    To put this in perspective, Hughes and Elbert were both late-1st rounders a few years ago. Next years draft is shaping up to be a much better one than the last two. Thus, the M’s will be able to get a really good player with a late first or early second round pick. Obviously, the players discussed above are much more valuable, as they have already proven themselves in pro ball. But if the M’s are not getting that type of offers, keeping Meche could become a good option.

    I would much rather see him go at the deadline, because Meche could really crap on his market value before the season is over. We have seen him fall apart late before.

    But there is also a chance that Meche keeps this up. If that is the case, the M’s might even get TWO compensation picks (if Meche is good enough to be considered a type A free agent – not likely).

    Bavasi is in a good position, as he has all the leverage in this situation.

    However, I think that the offers the M’s get should be more important than their place in the standings. The M’s are clearly not a club that will go deep into the playoffs. I am hoping that they make decisions with the future in mind.

  18. Snave said

    I don’t know what to make of the info given by Ken Rosenthal sometimes, but in a recent video he says the Mariners are interested in Alfonso Soriano. If this is really true, 1) what would it take to acquire Soriano, 2) would he be brought to Seattle as a 2B or an OF?

    If he was to be brought in as a LF, which I would prefer because I am a fan of Jose Lopez, then Raul Ibanez would probably do most of the DH work. That could make for a pretty potent lineup… Soriano bats right-handed, but he has plenty of power to spare. For his career, he has fanned about once every five ABs but has an OPS of .829. This season the strikeouts are up a bit, but the OPS is .903 and has been rising steadily over the last couple of weeks. He has 27 HRs and 20 steals this season.

    I wonder if the Nationals would take Jarrod Washburn? Heh! I know, not likely. Think they would want Meche?

    Personally, I think getting Soriano could be a nice move if Seattle got him to play outfield.

  19. The M’s simply do not have what it takes to get a rental player like Soriano — and why would they want to deal prospects for two months of a bad defensive player that will not re-sign?

  20. Willmore said

    Jason, what would Ibanez’ career year fetch us at the deadline, if we go that route ?

  21. A pretty good return. A solid pair of major league ready prospects from a contender.

    But Raul isn’t even going to be a name that comes out of Bavasi’s mouth, unless it’s to say “Raul Ibanez is not available.”

  22. DIQ said

    JAC,

    What’s the status of Cam Nobles? Is he going to UW or is there a possibility of him signing?

    The longer the hold out, the more unlikely it seems I suppose.

  23. He’s not very likely to sign. He’s got 6 weeks and the M’s will give up. They don’t go into September.

  24. Edman said

    Let me see……how much is a guy who’s three years from 30, pitching in the upper teir of starters this year (And, at this moment, your ONLY number 1 starter) worth?

    NOT TRADING AWAY!!!!!

    You spend all that time and effort getting him there, and are willing to trade him for ONE MORE young guy to start the process all over with? THAT is the making of a losing team. It hurt to trade Garcia when we did, but we had little choice. It’s not the same with Gil. You have at least an arby year left, you exercize it, if you can’t work out a three year deal.

    I think Meche would like to stay. You aren’t going to get a better FA arm, so why try?

    Some of you can’t either:

    A) Get move beyond past failures…..

    B) Believe that ANYTHING goes right for the M’s……

    C) Just love the idea of trading players.

    Trading Ibanez?………that shows just how some of you think. Great teams ARE NOT build on prospects…..they are built on solid baseball players.

    You want a winner in Seattle? Trade the weak links, and hold on to the valuable ones. There would be NOTHING to gain by trading Meche, Ibanez or any of the core players, for prospects. At some point, you have to build AROUND your core. Seattle has that core……..you don’t trade it away.

  25. Edman said

    Sorry. By arby year left…..I meant to say you offer him arbitration. He accepts, great. He signs elsewhere, you take the draft pick.

    Unless the M’s are so far out of the race that there is no hope, you don’t trade him. Building around a core of Meche-Hernandez-Washburn is far better than adding one more question mark to next year’s rotation, unless you have no other choice.

  26. Willmore said

    Edman, if we trade him, we might get a prospect who has 1st round pick potential but is closer to the majors than anyone we might get in the draft next year. If we accept taking the draft pick in the off-season, why don’t we accept a less risk, similar reward prospect at the deadline ?

    The Mariners are on a nice streak, but this team does not have the talent to win the world series, and after the deadline, we will not have the talent to win the division, even if we are buyers. We do not have the pieces to buy a major addition, while the Angles and the As will be looking to add good talent.

    You trade players not because you accept or condone losing, but because you realize that losing is an inevitable result of a bad team. You trade players, because you think that you can get someone in return who can help you in the future, to WIN.

    If we have a better chance of winning the World Series in 2007-2010 by giving up on 2006, why not do it ?

    Meche is gone after this year, that’s about 95% assured. So why not trade him ? I don’t see a reason why not.

    You ask why I would trade Ibanez ? Because the value we can get for him is as high right now as it will ever be. His current value outweighs anything he can give us over the next 2 years. And the prospects we get are just more pieces in the system that we can use to get quality players in the future. It’s not always about getting prospects that might help you 3 years down the road. Look at the Mariners this year. We might contend, but our system is pretty barren of desireable talent at the deadling. With the 5-6 prospects that Meche+Ibanez might garner us, we will be able to get major upgrades in the off-season or at the deadline.

    You have to know that selling is often the right choice. See Boone.

  27. Willmore said

    That didn’t make much sense, did it ? It’s too early for me, or rather too late.

  28. Jerry said

    I hope that the Alfonso Soriano rumors are bunk. He makes zero sense for the M’s.

    The M’s need to be selling.

    But even if they do decide to be buyers at the deadline, why Soriano? I would much rather see the M’s go after Bobby Abreu. Abreu is not eligable for free agency, and he could actually help the M’s beyond 2007. While Abreu’s contract is huge, Soriano will be looking for similar money down the line. Plus, Abreu’s contract could make him easier to acquire, as long as the M’s are willing to pay it.

    Plus, Abreu is a lefty hitter, he is leading the majors in OBP, and he also has the speed/power combo. Abreu is a much much better option than Soriano. If the M’s are looking into the premuim names available at the deadline, they are looking in the wrong place.

    But the best option is to sell at the deadline. The M’s are in last place, and the gap between them and third place is widening. Trade Meche. Trade Everett. Trade Moyer.

  29. Pslim said

    The equation is quite simple:

    Whatever Bavasi gets in return for Gil Meche (x) must be of greater value than:

    y- 2 months of Gil Meche pitching in August and September (variable value depending on games back in AL West Race)

    and

    z – whatever Fontaine feels the #45 and #70 draft picks are worth next year (variable depending on which team signs Meche in the offseason)

    So if x > y+z, then Bavasi pulls the trigger. Right now x would have to be two major league ready prospects, and at least one would have to be a SP.

  30. Allen Jacobs said

    It would be hard to part with Meche given the shakey performance of the remaining part of the rotation and no impact pitchers in Tacoma.

    Maybe Bavasi can get someone to take on Washburn’s contract or get marginal improvement by dumping Piniero for either Baek or Cruceta.

    SP is a major weak spot that has no easy remedies.

  31. Willmore said

    “It would be hard to part with Meche given the shakey performance of the remaining part of the rotation and no impact pitchers in Tacoma.”

    If we trade Meche, a MLB-ready starter would be a must in return.

  32. Willmore said

    Premise 1: Mariners will not trade within the division.
    Premise 2: Mariners will only trade with a contender.
    Premise 3: Mariners will only trade with a team willing to overpay.
    Premise 4: Meche will be a #3 starter or better on a team willing to overpay.
    Premise 5: Mariners will want good prospects in return for Meche.

    Teams that match the top 2: Boston, Yankees, Toronto, Detroit, White Sox, Mets, St. Louis, Cincinnati, San Diego, Dodgers, San Francisco, Arizona, Rockies.

    Teams that also match #3 and #4: Boston, Yankees, White Sox, Mets (Depending on el Duque the next 2 weeks), St. Louis, San Fran, D-Backs.

    From the D-Backs I would want: Chris Young, Edgar Gonzalez and Carlos Quentin. The D-Backs are surprisingly devoid of quality arms. However, they have enough hitters to not seriously miss either Quentin or Young. With Drew and Upton in the system, these are expendable commodities.

    From the Giants: I would want nothing less than Cain, because of the complete barren desert that is their farm system. The Giants aren’t giving Cain, case closed.

    From the Cardinals: Once again, little top pitching talent. I would want Reyes, but he is one of their top 3 pitchers, so it automatically disqualifies premise #4. However I wouldn’t mind somehow getting my hands on Colby Rasmus.

    From the Mets: I would start the negotiation at Pelfrey + … at which point the Mets slam the phone.

    From the White Sox: They have 2 pitchers in AAA that are putting up spectacular ERAs. But I’m not buying. They have fluke written all over them. I would love to get Josh Fields, but we don’t need a 3rd baseman. We do need outfielders though, so maybe we could move him there ? I don’t know if he has the range for that. In any case, a package I would like would look something like: Brandon McCarthy, Josh Fields and Robert Valido.

    Yankees: Any and all discussions should begin with Phillip Hughes. And the Yankees, if they are trailing the Red Sox, might actually do it. I would also want Tyler Clippard in the trade and some throw-in hitters. However, the Yankees, with Highes will likely be able to snag Zito.

    And finally, the Red Sox: Lester is pretty much the only MLB-ready pitcher, but they aren’t trading him. Still, there is potential here. Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Blackley and someone like David Pauley or Manny Delcarmen and switch him to be a starter.

    I’m not an expert and most of these trades are uneven, but it’s not my job to be even. Those are the types of acquisitions I want as a fan.

  33. StandinPat said

    Edman,

    The whole point about trading Meche, is to get a player of equal talent, albeit a younger one in return. This player is therefore cheaper, under club control, and has a much higher ceiling. If you could replace Meche with young player that could give you similar performance for 6-8 mil less a year, if we try to resign him, and then you use that money to upgrade another hole, say another SP. Thats how you build a winner dude, not by grasping at every medicore player you’ve ever had and pay them through the teeth for one solid year of performance.

    Same thing goes for Ibanez. He is having a career year, and I truly wonder what he’ll be capable of next year and the year after. I belive Snelling is every bit the hitter Ibanez is, and while he might not immediately put up a year like Raul is having this year, he wont be far off. So if you could trade Ibanez for say 3 legit prospects, atleast two very close to the majors, and replace him with Snelling for a slight drop in production, but maybe one of the players you got greatly upgrades your rotation, how is that a bad idea. Im not saying the M’s should necessarily be shopping him for those reasons, but its foolish to say that there isnt a scenario where trading him could actually improve this team right now.

  34. SethGrandpa said

    Why do people want to keep Meche?

    Sure he’s hot right now, but anyone who’s watched him over the years know he is not a guy you want to be in your staff.

    His hot streak is bound to wear off…it’s like the Mariners in June. Sure they were winning all the time, but I knew deep down that they really sucked and it was only a matter of time before they started playing like crap again.

    And by the way, anyone who thinks the Mariners truly have a shot at winning the divison hasn’t been watching them play all year.

  35. I don’t want to say they don’t have a chance, but I don’t believe they can even finish second.

    re: Meche

    I think all this fan talk about Meche being good and Doc’s site has guys talking three-year extension… i think that stuff is GOOD for his trade value.

    I sure as hell wouldn’t extend him for three years, but the public perception of a player’s value always has at least a small effect.

  36. Lee said

    Two points.

    First, I don’t buy it that Meche is “bound” to revert to his prior performance. For that to be true, a player’s past performance would have to exactly predict his future performance. But it’s not true, as the Red Sox career of David Ortiz (much better than past performance) and the Mariners career of Cirillo (much worse than past performance) show.

    Second, it seems to me that many are saying that we should get rid of Meche because he’s inconsistent (or has lousy stuff, or whatever), but that in return we should expect to receive multiple high-value, major league-ready prospects. If the general consensus in the industry is that Meche is mere moments away from reverting to the +5 ERA headache he’s been in the past, why would anyone trade decent prospects for him? I certainly wouldn’t.

  37. I tend to agree, Lee – to a certain extent. I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that Meche turns into a 5 ERA guy with no brains or guts AGAIN.

    But one has to be skeptical.

  38. Willmore said

    Why would anyone trade for him ? Why would New York sign Ponson ?

    Pitching is valuable. Pitching is very very valuable, and Meche’s current performance is good enough for almost any GM to forget about his past. Pitcher do fall apart, and there’s a chance he’ll be a 5+ ERA pitcher in the second half, but there’s a far better chance that he will be an average to good pitcher. And in a pennant race, adding an extra good starter is priceless. See the teams I listed, look at their rotation, now insert Meche into them, see what happens ? They become good. Meche is worth multiple top prospects because a GM’s primary goal is to win a championship, and if he feels that he is a starter away from a true contender, then he will pull the trigger. Look at the Mets game today, El Duque just fucked up a possible win, with Meche in the rotation, that is most likely a win.

    Now, the GMs are also not idiots, they realize that AL pitching is better than NL pitching, and if Meche is average in the AL, he’ll be a star in the NL. See Arroyo. So if they get him, and can resign him, they are pretty much golden. And the GM is hailed as a supreme evaluator of talent, able to discern a diamond in the rough and giving Meche a contract when he wasn’t thought of as a star, because the GM realized that Meche will just errupt in 2007, and become a star.

    Meche is worth top prospects. And if Bavasi is smart, he’ll accept the first trade that is worth more than the potential draft picks in ’07.

  39. MatthewCarruth said

    so if you think Meche is more likely to be an “average to good pitcher” in the second half of 2006 why wouldn’t you want to keep him around? After all, “pitching is valuable. Pitching is very very valuable.”

  40. Scott said

    Lee,

    I like your logic. I always find it interesting about the trade Pineiro talks. “Lets trade Joel because he is aweful.” Are the scouts or GM from other teams just pure stupid or they are actually charity none profit organizations that exist only to serve the M’s fans needs?

    As regards to Meche, I am going to guess M’s will keep him until end of the season. Even said by the trade deadline, we are more than five games behind, this front office is not going to admit the season is over. They believe if they keep telliing us “we are ONLY SEVEN games behind”, people would buy tickets to the games. Trading Meche would signal the towels being thrown at this point.

  41. Willmore said

    Matthew, did you read anything else, or just those two quotes ?

    You trade Meche because the return for him is more valuable than his performance in the second half + the draft picks in ’07. It’s the smart business and baseball decision.

  42. Bean said

    I agree with Willmore. Trade Meche while he’s hot.

  43. And apparently, the M’s are asking for quite a bit in return for Meche.

    One East Coast team was asked for one specific major leaguer of quality and one of their top few offensive prospects and one NL Central team was asked for their best two spects.

  44. Willmore said

    Ummm … my money is on the Reds with Bailey and Bruce ?

  45. Willmore said

    Or Bruce and Denorfio or any other combination of Bruce, that kid is money.

  46. Edman said

    OK, for those who don’t understand how “TRADES” work.

    If team A had a pitcher who was, as quoted, “….nearly as good as Meche….” Someone explain to me, why they’d give up a cheaper player, under their control, for an equivlent and more expensive pitcher, who can become a free agent?

    Waiting……waiting.

    OK folks, the reason they do, is that the player they trade “potentially” could be as good. If he “was” as good, they’d use him. If I wanted to take the time, I could give you a list of pitchers who were suppose to be that kind of player, who never panned out, once they got their opportunity.

    Meche, is has a far greater chance of being good, than even the best pitching prospects in most the MLB organizations.

    I find it funny that some are now mute about Cleveland, stating that their road to success is the right one…….when, they currently have fewer wins than the M’s.

    Clue for you……having the most prospects doesn’t make you a winner. Having the most major leaguers, does. Regardless of where they come from. There are only a hand full of prospects that make an immediate impact. So, if you wanna wait three or four years to be good, we can clean out the major league roster of every tradable veteran. Then, when that group doesn’t work, we can again trade Lopez, Betancourt, et al, in another three years, so we can get more prospects.

    At some point, you have to draw a line in the sand. And, I think now is the time. Keep your core, and build around them. Trade them, and start over…..and over…..and over.

  47. The pitcher the M’s get in return is either going to be 2+ years away from the bigs or a reliever.

  48. Bean said

    Edman, they’d give up the cheaper player under their control because that player isn’t helping them NOW; something that Meche is capable of.

    A couple years down the road, there’s a good chance that the prospect(s) will be a stud, something Meche is not. It takes risking, and taking chances to become a better team.

  49. Willmore said

    Yeah, what the phaseolus said.

  50. MatthewCarruth said

    “You trade Meche because the return for him is more valuable than his performance in the second half + the draft picks in ‘07. It’s the smart business and baseball decision.”

    Or you resign him because an average to above average AL SP is WAY more valuable than any combo of draft picks and/or prospects that you will get in return.

  51. Willmore said

    Matthew, he will cost more than he is worth to resign. If we trade for a pitcher that has more potential than Meche, we will have that pitcher’s rights for 3 years for practically peanuts. Followed by 3 guaranteed years.

    It’s the business of baseball.

    Meche is an unwarranted risk to resign. Trading him would be the best option. Getting draft picks the second best. Getting a 1-year deal with him would be third, and actually resigning him to a 30+ mil contract would be the worst possible decision.

  52. MatthewCarruth said

    “Matthew, he will cost more than he is worth to resign.”

    Complete speculation. Neither you, I, or anyone here save maybe Jason, has any idea what it will take to resign Meche.

  53. Edman said

    Willmore knows it all. He gave up on the season in January. He sees no future that doesn’t have a team loaded with cheap prospects.

    Tell me, Willmore, you go on and on about getting someone better than Meche from someone elses system, as if there is NO RISK that they will become ANOTHER Joel Pineiro. In your world, all great prospects succeed. You NEVER factor in failure, which is far more common than success.

    Grass is always greener for Willmore, because he can’t enjoy what we have.

  54. Edman said

    Ohhhhhhhh….and BTW, Willmore. The business of baseball is also about taking calculated risks……not playing it safe. So, if you want to win, you take a chance that you CAN resign Meche. Unless they’re getting vibes from his agent that Meche will leave, there is EVERY reason to think you have as much chance to resign him.

  55. Beanball said

    While it’s fun to play the trade game and all, Meche is one arm we need to keep. As thin as the M’s rotation is I can’t see how getting rid of your 27 year old staff leader this year and rolling the dice on prospects makes good sense or helps you compete.

    Under these circumstances i think there is no way you trade him. Pinero is done and if they felt they had a high quality replacement in AAA they would be up already. Moyer is 59 years old and could retire at the end of year, and Washburn is a mediocure fill-in for the rotation until his contract is up. If you dump Meche your talking about having to replace 4/5ths of your starting rotation over the next 2 years.

    They need to be saving thier major league starting quality arms, because fact is they don’t have many (only 2 that i see, I’m sure you can figure who the other is). My opinion is you resign him and work on replacing the other 3 starters. I just don’t see how the M’s are in a position to dump him. And thats not even considering what it costs to try to replace a 1 or 2 via FA in the offseason.

    Last thing.
    “I belive Snelling is every bit the hitter Ibanez is”

    WTF, It cracks me up how Snelling makes it into every thread as the great hitting solution, give me an F-ing break. He’s a carrer .214 hitter with a OPS of .659 in very limited time because he can’t run from first to home without tearing up his knee or breaking his hand taking BP. Dream on people.

  56. I don’t think Meche should be traded,He seems to be coming into his own finally.Keep him, however Penero would be my choice to be traded….At least they should try to get something for him.

  57. MatthewCarruth said

    “Moyer is 59 years old and could retire at the end of year”

    while he could, he has expressed interest in pitching for another 3 years or so as long as he remains effective, which he is when masked by SafeCo.

  58. Goose said

    You people scare me with this “Resign Gil Meche” stuff. I don’t care if they trade him or not, but under no circumstances should he be resigned.

  59. Willmore said

    Well, my job just got easier. From now on, I will just skip every post by Edman, Beanball and MatthewCarruth.

    That should save me at least 5 minutes a day.

  60. MatthewCarruth said

    Ahhh, so you contend that you DO know what it will take to resign Meche then?

  61. Beanball said

    “while he could, he has expressed interest in pitching for another 3 years or so as long as he remains effective, which he is when masked by SafeCo.”

    Thats great and all but the days of going into the offseason counting Moyer as a reliable piece to the puzzle should be over. I agree it’s great what we what we get out of him. I just don’t see how it would be a smart to plan on him being there in any future year rotation.

    Hey I’ve got a question, If pitching is such a premium like everyone thinks then isn’t Moyer worth something to a contender or does his no trade stance hamper the M’s again?

  62. Edman said

    This is a job, Willmore? Something you’re not telling us?

    What scares me more, Goose, is that people like you would cut off your nose, to spite your face. Because you had a previous bad taste regarding Meche, far be it for you to expand your logic set to say, “Maybe he IS a changed pitcher.”

    It’s reactionary thinking that kills development.

  63. MatthewCarruth said

    “Thats great and all but the days of going into the offseason counting Moyer as a reliable piece to the puzzle should be over.”

    Oh, agree. I was just addressing the retirement part of your statement.

    “Hey I’ve got a question, If pitching is such a premium like everyone thinks then isn’t Moyer worth something to a contender or does his no trade stance hamper the M’s again?”

    Likely, Moyer’s stance on trades prevents anything from happening.

  64. Goose said

    Yeah, there’s a chance Gil might be a changed pitcher, but there’s a better chance that he’s not gonna be able to substain this new found success past this season. I would rather not take that chance.

  65. Edman said

    WTF Goose? Greater chance of failure? Based on what, you’re belief. That is a mighty skimpy line to tread.

    You want to be a skeptic, fine. But there is no greater chance of him reverting…..than there is for him to continue his success. For crying out loud, the guy has come back from major shoulder surgery. It takes time to regain your confidence. I’ve been through that with your knee. It took me over two years to stop worrying that if I stressed it too hard, I’d hurt myself. You don’t think the same thing was in the back of his mind?

    Thankfully, it’s just your opinion. Meche is young enough that there is every reason to believe he’s turned the corner. For some, it takes time to learn how to win. Not every pitcher is made in the same mold.

    Would they be taking a risk? Sure, but if you’re gonna play the risk game, there are certainly risks with EVERY pitcher out there. The major thing is…..he no WORSE a risk than a vast majority of FA pitchers…..and several leaps ahead of any starter in the minors. He can’t be replaced easily.

  66. Willmore said

    Freddy Garcia.

    9.000.000$

    5.07 ERA.

  67. Willmore said

    If we sign Meche and he struggles, he no longer is just a bad pitcher, he’s also a liability, because he’ll be eating 8+ mil per year for no performance and that limits a team’s ability to sign players, to trade for players etc. etc. As opposed to a dozen other pitchers, who can be gotten for much cheaper, who have a similar chance to succeed as does Meche and who are not a liability if they fail.

    Pitchers like Campillo, Blackley, Livingston, Nageotte, Cruceta, and a dozen different free agent pitchers.

  68. Beanball said

    “If we sign Meche and he struggles, he no longer is just a bad pitcher, he’s also a liability, because he’ll be eating 8+ mil per year for no performance and that limits a team’s ability to sign players, to trade for players etc. etc.”

    As with everything there is a risk, but this is one gamble i’m inclined to take. He’s got a new slider this year and Meches problem has never been his stuff, it’s been between his ears. Thats basically the same gamble they took with Washburn except he is 4 years older and has no where near the pure stuff Meche has. For what pitching goes for I see it as a no brainer that you keep a 27 year old starter with that stuff having the sucess he is having this year. That opinion changes if Meche is 31+, then i’m in the trade him camp. Your going to have a hell of time finding a replacement for the same $$$ that has the same age and upside.

    “As opposed to a dozen other pitchers, who can be gotten for much cheaper, who have a similar chance to succeed as does Meche and who are not a liability if they fail.

    Pitchers like Campillo, Blackley, Livingston, Nageotte, Cruceta, and a dozen different free agent pitchers.”

    Um cheaper I agree with, similar chance to succeed NO! Meche was said to have better stuff by scouts that Ryan Anderson when he was drafted. Scouts have always graded him as top of the rotation stuff. No one on that list you mentioned has top of the rotation stuff. Campillo, Blackley, Livingston, Nageotte, will be even lucky to crack the big leagues for more than a short stay. Cruceta I don’t know enough about to comment but if he’s such a huge prospect wouldn’t there be more buzz from the big club about him. And I just don’t see a FA replacement that is of equal value when you consider age, stuff, contract etc.

  69. Willmore said

    Meche is not a TOR pitcher. He never was and he never will be. If he continues to pitch like he has the past few weeks, he’s a #2 starter at the most, and a #3 starter most likely. And he can STILL break down and be nothing more than a AAAA starter.

    You are over-valuing Meche’s ability.

  70. Beanball said

    Everyone can break down, Felix could go any day also. Like i said before nothing is certain, everything is a risk.

    Sorry if i was unclear, when i say top of the rotaion starter i am talking about a 1 or 2. Are you really going to deny the years of reports stating he has top of the rotation type stuff??

    Your grossly under-vauling his vaule to this team. Yes he has great value as trade bait but right now he has much higher value to this team that needs to hold on to a young starter with + stuff. His age is also a major factor in this.

    If your rule of thumb becomes trading a 27 year old starter with his stuff for prospects we might as well just start rooting for the Royals.

    Pitching is such a commodity that guys with near 6 eras or higher get scooped up by contenders. How does not keeping him in any way out weight keeping him.

  71. Willmore said

    Meche is not pitching like TOR pitcher, not even now. He used to have the potential to do so, but so does every 1st round pitching draft pick. Hell, Rocker had the stuff to be the best closer in the history of baseball. He’s not, is he ?

    Bean, you are really, really, overestimating Meche’s ability. He’s a 4 ERA pitcher. A 3.5 ERA pitcher with great defense and luck. He’s not a TOR guy. Anyone who tells you otherwise knows nothing about baseball.

  72. Beanball said

    Willmore…..

    Look at the big picture here. You can say Meche isn’t a TOR pitcher but your comparison is to the other TOR’s around the league not our staff.

    In a perfect world Meche would be your 3 type guy but……….
    FACT is right now on the M’s staff he is a TOR pitcher. (and does have the stuff to be in that 1 or 2 guy range but i’m tired of typing that over and over)

    It’s arleady been established that guys making 9 mil with era’s around 5 are the abundant, doesn’t it make sense to keep Meche.

    Build the rotation with Felix and Meche as part of the solution and worry about fixing the other 3 spots in the coming years.

    Resigning him to a washburn like contract (if they can) will look like quite a bargan for a number 3 type guy the way starting pitching salaries are.

    Hopefully Felix turns out to be your 1 you find a 2 guy somewhere and Meche is your solid 3-4 guy a couple years down the road.

    My point is your not keeping him to be your ace or anything like that, your keeping him a value piece to the rotation and I see him more valueble than 3/5ths of our rotation atm.

  73. DIQ said

    Meche has really good stuff. Wouldn’t say it’s ace quality, but it’s up there when he’s got his curve going and he isn’t only throwing that 91-92 MPH fastball.

    Even when he doesn’t have his best stuff, he is pitching effectively and mixing his pitches well.

    I say an extension right now only helps his trade value but there’s always a risk of him staying and re-verting to the Meche of old.

    The more and more I see him pitch, the more I believe. If this is the real Meche, I’m glad for him and the ballclub.

  74. Willmore said

    Beanball, you should stop looking at Meche with fan’s eyes, and start judging him objectively. He is not a TOR guy, his stuff is not TOR, it’s good, when he’s on, but it can also be very bad, when he’s not. He’s a streaky #3 pitcher with he’s himself, and he might be a horrible pitcher if he has a relapse of Meche disease. The smart baseball move is to let him go whether in the offseason, or at the deadline. Rewarding a player for 3 weeks of good performances is asinine. With Sonics in the news, it always help to remember Jerome James. Potential ? Check. Performance in contract year ? Check. Post-contract breakdown ? Check. In the off-season, we will have a shot as signing DM, he’s our TOR target, not Meche.

  75. Edman said

    ROFLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Willmore, telling someone else to stop looking through a fan’s eyes? You a scout, oh pessimistic one? For crying out loud…..unless you’re not telling us something….YOU’RE A FAN.

    And, one who can’t look objectively, if it doesn’t fit his preconcieved opinion. Nearly EVERYTHING you’ve posted is based on your opinions, and nearly ZERO on fact. And, you have the nerve to call someone else out for not being objective?

    Let me know when you get past the “Gil of the past” stuff…then you can play that game.

  76. Beanball said

    “In the off-season, we will have a shot as signing DM, he’s our TOR target, not Meche.”

    Great, my point this whole time has been it would be nice to have Meche as the number 3 or 4 starter STILL HERE in this senario.

    My whole argument is based on the current state of the mariners rotaion. It’s great you want to keep throwing around TOR but your not getting it.

    And objective my ass, While it makes for fun fantasy baseball the reality is Meche is an asset the M’s can’t afford to part with and be in a position to contend any time soon. By dumping Meche your going to need to replace 4/5ths of the starting rotation. So DM comes here, your still going to need 3 more. Meche is a better future option than trying to resign a mediocure starter (another washburn anyone).

    Basically for the future you have felix… and um well felix…… and um hmmmm. Stop your fixation with TOR and fantasy baseball stats.

    I think he’s well worth the risk and should be resigned. If you some reason the mariners pull 3 or 4 starters better than Meche by next year out of thier ass then he’s still going to be an under 30 pitcher with trade value.

    They are just too thin to let him go.

    Plain and simple.

  77. Willmore said

    I give up, it’s hopeless.

    Believe what you will.

  78. Willmore said

    “Willmore, telling someone else to stop looking through a fan’s eyes? You a scout, oh pessimistic one? For crying out loud…..unless you’re not telling us something….YOU’RE A FAN.”

    I never said I wasn’t a fan. But in the case of Meche, I’m looking objectively. With Felix, Reed, Snelling, etc. etc., I look at them with the eyes of a fan, hoping they succeed, and rooting them on. With Meche, I’m past that. Now, I see an average pitcher who is having a hot stretch.

    I’ve explained it all before, and I won’t bother expaining it again. Believe what you want.

  79. Matthew said

    An average AL pitcher is HIGHLY valuable.

    “If we sign Meche and he struggles, he no longer is just a bad pitcher, he’s also a liability, because he’ll be eating 8+ mil per year”

    AGAIN, so you know how much it’s going to take to resign Meche eh? Please please please share those details with me. I really do want to know.

  80. Willmore said

    That’s the market. Look at the contracts of last year’s pitchers, factor in other free agents like DM, Zito and Schmidt, and Meche becomes a hot commodity (not for his ability), warranting over 8 mil per year and at least 3 years. Same as average young pitchers last year. It’s not rocket science.

  81. DIQ said

    BTW.

    If Meche does leave we have Felix and Washburn under contract for 3 more years. The rotation still has holes but going from within and acquiring talent outside of the organization is still very possible.

    Felix
    Washburn
    Meche/Farmhand
    FA
    FA

    Very possible.

  82. Don’t assume Jamie is going to retire, either.

    If he finishes strong, he’s worth another year at 4 mil or so.

  83. Edman said

    Ohhhhhhhhhhhh…..and please, let’s get OFF the DM bandwagon. I’d love to have him, but it’s not about Seattle’s want. They could have all the desire in the world, but they have to blindly bid against all other 29 teams, and one ONE team gets to bid.

    You REALLY want to hinge your future on a 1:30 chance? All it takes is ONE team, to outbid Seattle for the right…..JUST ONE. Since it’s a secret bidding process, all the Mariners can do is guess what other teams are offering.

    What’s to prevent a team like the Yankees from bidding $1 million for the rights to DM?

    Put simply:

    “A bird in the hand, is worth two in the bush”. You have a far better chance of signing Meche, than winning the rights to DM.

  84. Edman said

    gets “the” bid……not “to” bid…sorry.

  85. Edman said

    One simple quote, “You can never have too much pitching”

  86. Jerry said

    Edman,

    You couldn’t be more wrong.

    The chances of getting Matsuzaka are nothing close to 1:30. That would be true only if the posting system was totally random.

    The thing you don’t seem to recognize is that the system is based on bids. Not all the teams in baseball will submit a bid. And it is likely that only a handful of clubs will submit large bids.

    The M’s are likely to be bidding against a few other clubs, like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets.

    The Mariners have consistently been mentioned as one of the main players in the bidding. Why would that be the case?

    1. The M’s have overbid for Japanese players in the past. Their bid was way beyond the next highest for Ichiro.

    2. The M’s are owned by a Japanese ownership group.

    3. The team is 3 for 3 in bringing in big-name Japanese players (Sasaki, Ichiro and Johjima) and having those players succeed. Obviously, this will play into their decision.

    4. The M’s are in serious need of starting pitching. Matsuzaka is a perfect fit.

    Seattle is an ideal spot for Matsuzaka. We have a Japanese icon playing for the club, and the best Japanese catcher of the past decade on the roster. This won’t help the M’s win the bidding, because it will all come down to $$$. However, the important point here is that these factors make it likely that the M’s will be willing to throw down $$$. Lots of money.

    It is to early to pencil Matsuzaka into the 2007 rotation. However, it is totally idiotic to suggest that it is a 1:30 chance. That is really naive to suggest that. It reflects a lack of understanding on how these things work.

    I would (rather arbitrarily) estimate that the chances of Matsuzaka landing in Seattle are 1:4. The chances of the M’s landing one of Matsuzaka or Jason Schmidt are probably 50:50.

  87. Edman said

    Jerry, the point is…..Willmore treats it as if DM is a done deal, and we can afford to dicard Meche. He’s far from a done deal.

    I do believe that Seattle has the inside shot at Jason Schmidt. I wouldn’t say it’s anything to grasp, but at least there is something there.

    I’d rather have a rotation of:

    Schmidt (or DM)
    Hernandez
    Meche
    Washburn
    Moyer

    Going into next season, that’s something to build around. There is an amount of expect results…..and I believe would be good enough to win the West, with a couple offensive improvements.

  88. Matthew said

    Also, IIRC, the posting process isn’t always on the up and up as far as straight highest bidder. If Seattle is close to the top bid, with the lure of a Japanese owner, RF, C, past pitchers, and advanced market penetration in Japan, I would be surprised if the Ms didn’t “win” his posting rights despite being only the third or fourth highest bid.

  89. Willmore said

    If Seibu has any say in it, they will prefer a Seattle bid to any other, because the chance of us signing Matsuzaka is higher because of all those things. If Matsuzaka doesn’t sign, Seibu gets nothing, and they don’t want to let Matsuzaka walk for free.

  90. Matthew said

    “That’s the market. Look at the contracts of last year’s pitchers, factor in other free agents like DM, Zito and Schmidt, and Meche becomes a hot commodity (not for his ability), warranting over 8 mil per year and at least 3 years. Same as average young pitchers last year. It’s not rocket science.”

    Except Meche’s best comp heading to FA is that of Jaret Wright who got 3/21 from the Yankees who overbid everyone else by a margin.

  91. Willmore said

    I would compare him to Matt Clement before Jaret Wright in the 2004-2005 off-season. But it’s somewhat irrelevant, the market has changed since then. Last year has raised the bar for pitchers and now every agent will be asking for 8, 9 mil per year and 3+ years for any pitcher who is young and is either good or is close to being good.

    Meche will get a big contract.

  92. Willmore said

    Speaking of Meche, he’s got a perfect game through 4.

  93. Willmore said

    jinxed him 🙂

  94. Willmore said

    This performance has a chance to net as Philip Hughes.

  95. Adam B. said

    Meche’s value should be at an all-time high following his last start in NY.
    I can’t think of a better time for the Mariners to trade him.

    Certainly we can all hold out hope for a Mariner resurgance and a ALW championship, but I don’t think that’s realistic at this point with our skipper and the lack of any kind of consistant offense or pitching.

    And even if the Mariners were to make it into the post season, what then? This isn’t exactly a team that has shown any hint of being able to take on AL luminaries like Chicago, Boston or Detriot. So basically we’d have taken a HUGE gamble for nothing.

    For a blackjack analogy I’d say the M’s are sitting on a 16 or 17 right now and the dealer is showing an ace. There’s a long shot they could take a card and get REAL lucky (Soriano), or they could decide to stand and probably lose, or they could take insurance and try again next hand.

    Basically Meche is the perfect trade candidate for the M’s, and even as a true Mariner fan I can’t help but wish the Mariner’s continue their current slide and we see a nice purge of the current crop of overacheivers, “fan favorites” and “veteran leadership”.

    And maybe we could get some decent prospects for a change ole’ Bill?

  96. mad dog said

    The way Meche gets jacked to pitch at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees would be wise to put a package together for Meche, unfortunately for the M’s, his impending free agency leaves them with no leverage. The Yanks are serious about keep their high level prospects and would wait until after the season to sign Meche. The M’s probably have to go for it as best the can this year and settle for the draft choice.

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