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Seattle Mariners… Trade Bait

Posted by Jason A. Churchill on September 23, 2006

Untouchable – would not trade unless Albert Pujols is involved

1. Felix Hernandez – Okay, I’d deal him for Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis and Anibal Sanchez, too, but you get the point. Hernandez, despite the 4.65 ERA, has had a solid season. He’s still getting ground ball outs (2.40), can still pile up the missed bats (8.27/9) and posted a promising 4.25 ERA after the all-star break.

Furthermore, Hernandez posted a 3.92 FIP and though his line drive percentage raised to 18% (from 14% last year) and his G/F rate did dip by nearly one full point, all signs still point to Felix becoming the ace everyone thought he would.

Not Available – would only trade in a can’t-miss deal for major upgrades to offense or rotation, i.e. for Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Jake Peavy or Dontrelle Willis.

1. Yuniesky Betancourt, SS – Find me another 24-year-old first-year Gold Platinum Glove shortstop who posted a .400+ slugging percentage while hitting .290 or better and I’ll trade Betancourt for him. Until then, I’ll keep my $350k Cuban, thank you.

2. J.J. Putz, Closer – Same with Betancourt, but Putz is likely to get a multi-year deal this winter that will cloud his economic value, but certainly not his value on the field. He’s about as good as there is in baseball and he’s peaking as a pitcher right now. *No need to trade arms like that, even when they start making a few million per year.

3. Jose Lopez, 2B – Even though he’s not Miguel Tejada at the plate, he’s going to be pretty good. He hasn’t homered since June 2, but he’s fought off frustration to climb to the .290 range. One day he’ll learn to draw a few walks, but since he doesn’t fan much, either, his power will more than make up for his lack in walkage.

4. Kenji Johjima, C – Don’t expect Johjima to hit .290/.340/.460 every year… but he might do it anyway. He’s exceeded most projections by 10 percent or more. Defensively, he’s getting there, but will never be the gold glover he was in Japan.

For the offensive value he brings to the table for $5.5 mil per year, he’s a keeper. Oh, and, he could be THE single most important factor in the Daisuke Matsuzaka situation, where the “posting process” is a joke and DM will play where he WANTS to play.

Available for upgrades to offense, rotation

1. Rafael Soriano, RHP – Still a candidate to return to the rotation at some point, Soriano has the right kind of value that should prompt the club to think about dealing him for a bat. He’s arbitration eligible and will approach the $1.5 million mark in an arby-driven one-year deal, but in a package deal could bring back a nice hitter.

I wouldn’t trade him just to trade him, but I’d be more than willing to part with the right-hander in the right trade.

2. George Sherrill, LHP – Sherrill isn’t someone that has the value Soriano has, so he’s got to be the second or third part of a bigger trade package, but could be the “make” portion of a pretty big deal. Everyone says lefty relievers fall off trees, well, not good ones that aren’t making any money.

Like Soriano, barring that big trade for the right bat, I keep Sherrill. But I’m not afraid to include him in talks.

SHOULD be Available, but won’t be…

1. Ichiro, CF – Ichiro, as a center fielder, has more value today than he has had since 2003. The club will never trade him, but they should listen to what they might be able to get. Just for kicks.

2. Raul Ibanez, OF/DH – Ibanez is nearly as untouchable as Ichiro, and for some of the same reasons. Ibanez is having a career year, and is unlikely to repeat them in 2007 and beyond. This is exactly why he SHOULD be dealt for pitching, but the club’s suits value his leadership, boyscout actions and the connection he has with the Latin community.

More than willing to trade, but not willing to include cash, must get decent return

1. Richie Sexson, 1B – I know he’s due $28 million over the next two years, but unless someone is willing to part with a legit pitching prospect or two, I’m really not interested. Money is not the M’s problem and saving payroll space only helps if you have someone besides Matsuzaka to spend it on.

If Detroit wants to part with Humberto Sanchez for Sexson and Reed… done. If Baltimore wants to send some of their minor league pitching out west, I’ll consider that. But I;m not including cash, and the Mariners shouldn’t even dream of doing so.

More than willing to trade, will include some cash

1. Jarrod Washburn, LHP – No team is going to touch Washburn unless the Mariners make him a market value attraction, and that’s asking too much. What’s Washburn worth? Five million a year, maybe six max? That would require the club to send off $9-12 million in cash, which isn’t realistic in any scenario.

Perhaps a team would be willing to take $6 mil in cash if the Mariners sent a prospect with him, but he’s nearly untradable.

2. Adrian Beltre, 3B – Again, there’s no way a ton of cash should leave Seattle in a deal for Beltre, and the return must make sense, especially after Beltre’s season.

Since June 1, Beltre is slugging .523, tops in the AL for third baseman. And you won’t find many third-sackers with a better glove. Still, if the M’s can get something for him without piling on a big giant check, they’d really have to consider that strongly, especially since he’s owed $11.75 mil per season through 2009.

Will trade for next to nothing

1. Jake Woods, LHP – Someone is going to come calling. He’s a lefthander who’s average. Teams will want that, for some reason.

2. Julio Mateo, RHP – Might be included in a backside deal, but there isn’t much value here, though he’smaking only 800 grand.

3. Willie Bloomquist, UT – With the right team, Bloomquist is a fine member of the 25-man roster. Since he’s got zero trade value, it’s probably better to just build a good team so Willie’s presence makes more sense. He doesn’t hit much, but he’s a sensational baserunner and can steal a meaningful base late in games.

Might add some value to a package deal, if healthy

1. Jeremy Reed, CF – His health is a concern, but since he’s making the minimum, Reed might interest an NL team in a package deal. Wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up in Cincinnati, Florida or Pittsburgh.

2. Chris Snelling, RF – Snelling isn’t likely to be traded and probably wouldn’t bring back a whole lot, considering his own medical history, but if for whatever reason the M’s had no need for a .290/.390/.460 bat from the left side (ha!), some club might part with a pretty good A ball prospect or two.

Snelling can hit, and is part of the answer, not part of the problem. Trading him makes little sense.

Prospects

1. Adam Jones, CF – I wouldn’t trade Jones unless that no-brainer deal comes along, which means unless I’m getting a fairly cheap MOTO bat or frontline starter that is under 30 and under contract/team control, I’m not even talking about it.

2. Jeff Clement, C/DH – Ditto here, but with other catching options in the organization, Clement ca be had for the right price. By no means is he untouchable. But he’s still a good bet to hit and in a few years, he might be the club’s No. 1 catcher.

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64 Responses to “Seattle Mariners… Trade Bait”

  1. Jason, can you add to that list prospects that have trade value as number one or number two parts in deals?

  2. Matthew C said

    Could Bavasi have sought out Johjima precisely for the help down the line with Daisuke? I doubt it, but that would be some immense shrewdness.

    All the rumblings I’ve heard say that the Ms are going to fairly active in the offseason trade market, at least in floating deals to many teams concerning many players. Are you getting the same vibes? If so, anything more concrete that you can share? i.e. I keep hearing Beltre and Sexson come up because of their salary, but who, exactly, would the Ms be then handing those $$ too? It’s not like there’s a good FA market out there to splurge on. Any thoughts on actually productive players who might be trade bait this year because of salary or other concerns? It sure seems like Manny is on his way out, maybe Tejada, maybe Prior?

  3. Johjima was signed because he can hit, period.

    But it sure can’t hurt in the DM sweepstakes.

    If DM wants very badly to come to Seattle, having Johjima might very well be a big reason why. And if DM is adamant enough, it’ll happen.

  4. Re: Dave

    I don’t think any of the eligible spects beyond Jones and Clement have that kind of value right now.

    Butler, Morrow and Tillman might in a year, but they can’t be dealt right now, so…

    Feierabend doesn’t hold the kind of value that could land the club a legit moto bat or a veteran SP to install in the 2 or 3 spot…

    If Lowe was starting, he might, but then if he was, the M’s wouldn’t be looking to trade him.

  5. mundeazy said

    good read…personally i wouldnt trade sherrill he is more valuavle than what we could get for him. im a big soriano fan but for the right price i would definately deal him aswell.

    jason what do you know about Carlos Truinfel?

    thanks

  6. Truinfel is a toolsy guy who may not play a single play at shortstop above A ball, but he’s a pretty solid bat.

    What scouts like about him physically is that he’s already 180 pounds or so… not a gangly 140-pounder like Jeff Dominguez or Oz Navarro. At 16, he impressed everyone who saw him with his advanced approach at the plate.

    He’s raw like any 16 year old, but would probably crack the top 15 in the system with ease.

    I’m more intrigued by Martinez, but Truinfel is a loaded prospect.

  7. dnc said

    You’d deal Felix for Anibal Sanchez?

    You have to be kidding me.

  8. dnc said

    Also, why are you so intrigued with Martinez? I’ve heard almost nothing about that kid would love to get your thoughts.

  9. Jerry said

    Jason,

    Everything you said above makes a lot of sense. However, it is really tough to evaluate trades out of context. I wouldn’t be too quick to deal Sexson either, but if the Tigers would trade Jeremy Bonderman for him, well, that is an easy decision. Felix and Ichiro for Johan Santana and Justin Morneau? Done. Obviously, those trades are pretty ridiculous, but the point is, nobody is untradable.

    It will be interesting to see what Bavasi can come up with this offseason.

    The one thing that we haven’t seen from Bavasi is the big name trade. Almost all of his moves have been as seller at the trade deadline, or minor moves like Perez/Broussard. Really, we haven’t seen him put together a real creative deal that brings us a huge piece of the puzzle.

    I want to see the M’s make a huge, unexpected, team-altering move. Put together something for Alex Rodriguez. Make a move for Manny Ramirez. Something like that.

    The free agent market has enough pitching, so the M’s should be able to bring in one or two good arms without having to make a trade. But there just aren’t that many good hitters. Alfonso Soriano is going to be way overpaid. Carlos Lee isn’t worth anything near the numbers that are being thrown around. And there are no elite lefty bats available.

    If the M’s want to bring in a really good bat, they will have to be creative.

    Thus far, we haven’t seen Bavasi do that.

  10. Willmore said

    DNC, he didn’t mean just Sanchez, he meant the package of Sanchez, Willis and Cabrera.

  11. Geez, guys, I didn’t think I needed to state the obvious.

    Nobody in their right mind would turn down a Sexson for Bonderman deal.

    But the stance, well, stands… I’m not sending anyone cash to take Sexson.

    If Detroit wanted to be stupid and send me Bonderman for Sexson, that changes everything. But realistically, there is no chance in hell that happens…

    So, can we stick to logic, please?

  12. dnc said

    Thanks Willmore.

    That makes a lot more sense.

    In that case, I’m even more willing than Jason – I’d deal him for Cabrera and Willis.

  13. Just as the Jon Lester rumors were going around in Seattle, a Manny Ramirez and cash for Ichiro and a couple of high-flying youngsters deal was being rumored in Boston coffeeshops. What do you think is the likelihood of that?

    Also, do you see Joel Pineiro having any value in a trade?

  14. Nothing at all, and no.

    Why would any team trade for Joel Pineiro when the lowest contract he can be offered legally by the M’s or the acquiring team is 80% of what he made in 2006 – 6.3 mil.

    Because he’s arby eligible one last time, he’s due at least the 5.5 mil or so, but a club can pick him up for whatever he’ll sign for after the Mariners non-tender him, making him a free agent and freeing any club from the arbitration salary rules.

  15. StandinPat said

    Jason,

    Its intersting you brought up Jones. I was just thinking how Ichiro’s move to center makes Jones, whom I think is gonna be a star, expendable in the right package. A young stud pitcher would definately get me thinking about moving Jones. Dont know if there is any chance but I’d love to see the baby Bull Carlos Zambrano change his shade of blue.

  16. marinertrueand blue said

    Jason

    How much cash do the mariners have for free agents this offseason. what percentage of chance do you think the mariners have of getting DM and anthor staring pitcher or is it going to have to come in trade.And what are they going to do in 08 when jones and clement are ready with people in thier way

  17. Jerry said

    RE # 16,

    I was wondering the same thing. Dave at USSM did a post about this issue, and came up with figures that seemed quite low.

    Whats your take?

    Do you see them cutting payroll, maintaining the current payroll, or perhaps going up a bit?

  18. marinertrueand blue said

    I cant see them cutting payroll doesnt make any sense the team is starting to come together a couple of moves and we can be right there next year i also dont agree with dave at ussm how does he figure that soriano is going to make the same as putz makes no sense

  19. Dave is really close, but I dont buy that both Soriano and Putz make 3 mil + each, because I think at least Putz is going to get a multi year extension that will save the club some space in 07… and Soriano maybe, too, but he also might be dealt.

    What could an Adam Jones and Rafael Soriano package get? Probably quite a bit, but they have to find the right fit.

  20. Jerry said

    I would defintely explore what I could get for Soriano. A lot of clubs would see him as a closer option.

    The closer market is looking pretty thin this year.

    Package him with some other players, and you could get something significant.

    Losing Soriano would be a big loss, but with Lowe pitching like he did, and so many other quality bullpen arms in the organization, he is definitely a tradable commodity.

  21. Even without Lowe, Soriano’s return in a trade might be more valuable to this team than Soriano himself, since the club needs help on offense and in the rotation.

  22. Slackman said

    I’m all for trading Jones and Soriano if it gets a couple of good pitching prospects in return. That could really go along way.

  23. If Jones and Soriano go in a package, prospects cannot be the return… they have to get proven big-league talent. Really good proven big-league talent.

  24. marinertrueand blue said

    I would say that is they traded jones and soriano the return would have to be something like veron wells along that line of return

  25. Or the younger, cheaper equivalent of… Wells isn’t the guy I’d deal Jones-Soriano for…

  26. dnc said

    You talking Grady Sizemore Jason?

  27. Sure, that’s the type of guy, yeah. Sizemore isn’t even remotely available, nor should he be, but that is the idea… a young, cheap, developing player that has already had some good success in the bigs.

  28. dnc said

    I would imagine most of them fall in that “isn’t even remotely available, nor should he be” category.

  29. Yeah, you have to find a Dontrelle WIllis situation where his current team isn’t going to want to pay him what he’s due in 07+.

    Willis SHOULD be dealt this winter – he’s probably due 6-7 mil.

  30. Marinerhomer said

    Jason,
    Where does Mark Lowe fall on your list? I am assumnig in the not available list.

  31. Scott said

    Is Willis a legit option? Would the Marlins be interested in a package that included Jones and Soriano? Would the M’s?

  32. taro said

    Question for Jason,

    What kind of package would it take to trade for Jonnny Gomes?

  33. taro said

    “Is Willis a legit option? Would the Marlins be interested in a package that included Jones and Soriano? Would the M’s?”

    Is that really all it would take? Where do I sign on this deal.

  34. slim said

    I think we might be over-valuing Soriano. He’s a fine set-up man, to be sure; and he could become a solid SP. Problem is, he’s a free agent in two years. He’s not going to be a particularly cheap set-up guy during those two years. And if you convert him to a starter, he’ll basically be ready to move on as soon as he’s made the transition.

    He’s a solid auxiliary piece of a contending team, but not a guy a rebuilding team should be looking at.

  35. dnc said

    I like Dontrelle (obviously), but I think he’s the one who’s overrated here. That home stadium has been a huge plus for him his entire career, so he wouldn’t be getting the Safeco bump that most any pitcher can expect. Couple that with the move to the AL, and I think Willis would be putting up ERA’s in the 3.8 to 4.2 range for us. Good, but not Cy Young caliber.

    That said, I’d deal Jones and Soriano for him.

  36. Willis is still developing, however. Rare, and a good chance he’s a legit No. 1B starter for the next 6-8 years.

    And I don’t buy that his ER would inherently jump just because of the switch to the AL. He’s getting better – still – we’ve established that, and that alone makes up for some, if not all of the difference.

    Plus, he’s perfect for Safeco… a lefty that gets out lefties.

  37. And no, I don’t think Willis is a legit option, and we have to remember, he’s going to start getting pretty expensive. ANy team trading for him this winter needs to be pretty sure he’ll sign a 2-3 year extension with them, because he’s due 6-7 mil at least in arby, and that goes over 10 mil after 2007. Raffy and Jones for Willis at 8.5 over the next two years and then let him hit free agency = NOT a good trade.

    But if he’s extended at, say, 3 and 24, it really might be.

  38. jp17 said

    There has been alot of talk about available money. Judging by USSM’s take, Broussard and Perez may make around $6 million. They seem to think Sexson can be traded to clear money. I think it will be hard to replace his numbers.

    Do you think the M’s would let both Broussard and Perez walk and use that money (along with monies already saved from others) to afford a MOR guy and find a cheap LF/DH replacement?

    Seems Benuardo’s production may not be worth the $6 mil (at least with Seattle so far.) Could be a rather easy way to free up a nice chunk of money.

    Is this something they would even consider or do they need to save face since they traded two pretty good prospects to get them?

  39. I think Sexson stays, though they should – and will – listen to offers (14 mil is a lot of money).

    In the end, Richie is probably going to be the M’s 1B next year, which is fine by me.

    But if so, Ben and Eddie shouldn’t be here, and Raul should be the DH so the club has room to go get Jimmy Outfielder.

  40. jp17 said

    Agreed. Having all three on one team doesn’t make sense with the combined production vs. cost of Benuardo.

    Bavasi has owned up to mistakes and let guys go (sometimes it takes awhile) so I guess it’s possible that they cut them both loose.

    It just scares me that one of the reasons they like Broussard was because he was under club control. Maybe I took it the wrong way. Maybe the good part wasn’t that they could keep him, it’s that they could also let him go risk free.

    Looking back it’s a bad trade, although Broussard has a third of his HR totals with us, it seemed better at the time when Broussard was doing well (with the Indians) and having a chance to compete wasn’t totally lost.

    There are a few places to save money and Benuardo jump out as the easiest way and nobody seems to mention them.

    Any ideas on who may be available that could be had on the cheap to fill this role?

  41. slim said

    Willis has three years of arbitration left. He was a Super 2 guy this year. But they’ll be pricey and the last two years will likely be close to top market dollar.

    I also think this will be a frustrating offseason for free agency. I don’t think there will be as much money as people are hoping. Attendance really took a hit this year and I’m not sure we know how that will affect the payroll (without Finnegan around to tell us anymore). They may not have the money to stay in a race for Schmidt or Zito, even if that were the only move the team made this offseason.

    I’d like Broussard to stay here for sure. There’s no reason he can’t do exactly what Sexson did last year, in a platoon role. His power didn’t suffer in Seattle. Perez really didn’t do so hot though. I’m not sure what they’ll do there.

  42. It doesnt make any sense whatsoever to deal for Willis and not have a good idea that he’s willing to sign an extension right now.

    Any club that does that deserves to be contracted.

  43. jp17 said

    I think there is plenty of reason NOT to assume that Broussard could do what Sexson did last year.

    He’s never done it before. Why would he start now?

    His at-bats have looked horrible. He looks lost at the plate. I think his hits are from pitchers making horrible mistakes rather than him hitting good pitches. Has he hit a good pitch since being here?

    He just gets eaten up and the pitch down and in and I hope Snelling isn’t watching him bat because he’s been falling for that pitch way to much as well.

    I have confidence Snelling will get it turned around. Broussard, not so much.

    And for a possible $4 million to Broussard….I’ll pass.

  44. jp17 said

    Broussard’s SLG% by month

    April-.692
    May-.359
    June-.472
    July-.577
    acquired by M’s with a few days left in the month
    Aug-.375
    Sept-439

    Two out of three of his worst power months came back to back, with us.

    I’d say it suffered although I haven’t looked to see how he fared at Safeco.

  45. jp17 said

    Broussard in 75 ABs at Safeco this year

    .200/.218/.280

    Small sample size it is, but for a guy who should succeed in Safeco and who will possibly make $4 million to play half his games there next year and possibly beyond….it scares me away real quick.

    And he can’t hit lefties worth a darn meaning you have to keep another bat around to compensate for that…..no, I just can’t find a reason to keep him.

  46. taro said

    JAC,

    What do you guess would be the asking price for Jonny Gomes in the current market?

    Thanks.

  47. I doubt that Gomes is available considering his cost. Though there are rumors of Crawford being available for a TOR. I expect one of Baldelli or Crawford to move. Neither to the Mariners.

  48. Gomes? A live arm’ll probably getcha Gomes.

    TB has outfielders coming out of their ears, but Gomes is a poor man’s Jay Buhner all the way around.

    I wouldn’t give up anything more than Fruto for him.

    TB would certainly trade Gomes, but again, it’d have to be for pitching – STARTING PITCHING, and Seattle has none of that to spare.

    Crawford, Baldelli and Young in their outfield, and Upton is likely to move there at some point, and they have the suspended Elijah Dukes that’s a big-league talent, too.

    Gomes is basically a DH, and I wouldn’t go get him unless he’s cheap.

  49. taro said

    I see Gomes as just Jay Buhner. Kid can hit and has a ton of pop (the kind that makes Safeco moot despite being a righty).

    I know this isn’t going to be a popular opinion, but I’d give you Ryan Feirabend for Jonny Gomes. I like Gomes’ chances of having a breakout year in 07, and a 35 HR bat is worth a (likely) #4 starter.

  50. Willmore said

    Jason, just out of curiosity, what do you think a Sexson + Soriano package would net us in terms of starting pitching. Would we be able to get a Noah Lowry + Ishikawa without giving cash ? And secondly, can Lowry post his ’05 numbers again ?

    In my opinion, we need more lefties in the rotation to protect against the other lefties who also bat at Safeco. Washburn has a 3.56 ERC at Safeco this year. If we get a lefty who is actually good, think of the production he could have. Ideally, we should have 3 lefty starters (one of them being Santana, but that’s ideally).

    I was thinking:

    1. Felix
    2. Matsuzaka
    3. Washburn
    4. Lowry
    5. in-house. Hopefully, Blackley or Livingston.

    Lowry is an arbitration case and will need little to fit under the budget, allowing us to go after some more offense in the outfield. I was thinking a Perez/Broussard platoon at 1st, because they seem to have had some nice success at 1st when in Cleveland. We could use Baek, Jones, Mateo and potentially Tui as trade bait for some offense. Or, even go for a free agent like Matthews Jr. in CF for 2 years and an option. I was thinking of Ibanez at DH, Ichiro in RF, and Snelling in left. The offense is upgraded, the pitching is upgraded and depending on what the other teams in the division do, I think that would be enough for 90 wins … with a new manager that is.

    Thoughts ?

  51. jp17 said

    Glad you brought up Cruz in that thing at the PI giving dream rosters.

    I was thinking he would be a good fit if getting rid of Benuardo.

    Might not have much power left, but he can take a walk and we really could use more of that skill throughout the lineup.

    Surprised nobody picked him up, no fits among contending teams I guess.

  52. Jerry said

    RE Jonny Gomes,

    I would rather go after another D-Ray OFer: Elijah Dukes. The guy is an absolute bastard. He is as bad as it gets in terms of makeup and character.

    On the other hand, he is a young guy and should grow up a bit as he gets older. He has huge talent. He could play in the big leagues right now. He hit .293/.401/.488 in 88 games in AAA this year. He lost a lot of time to suspensions.

    The Devil Rays are ready to cut bait on this guy. As Jason and others mentioned, the Rays have a ton of OFers and need pitching. The M’s could potentially pick this guy up for suprisingly little. Maybe a reliever and a middling prospect.

    Then, I would send him to Tacoma, and tell Brundage to serve up a little tough love. Who knows. Tampa Bay has developed a bad rep with discipline problems (Delmon Youngs antics, BJ Uptons drunk driving, etc), so part of the problem is likely organizational. Dukes is from the Tampa Bay area, and perhaps he just needs to get away from his past. A new start could be the best thing for him. Moving him from a troubled organization could be just what he needs to get back on track. And, at 22 year old, he still has a chance to pull his head out of his ass.

    If he pans out, you have a prototypical RFer, with tools galore. He is a 5-tool athlete, and plays excellent defense in RF. He also has excellent plate discipline (44BB/47K), and bigtime power potential. He is like a poor mans Delmon Young, except with worse plate discipline. He is a lot better player than Gomes, who has serious K problems and no defensive value.

    Dukes would be a huge risk, because his character flaws are serious enough to potentiall derail his career. But this would be a great opportunity to buy low on a guy with a ton of talent. If Dukes wasn’t a dumbass, he would be among the best prospects in baseball. That is worth the risk. The M’s should call the Rays about him. He probably wouldn’t cost much at all.

  53. marc w. said

    Not a bad idea, Jerry. I think TB would give Dukes away for pennies on the dollar now, esp. with all the talk about Durham management saying he flat out wasn’t welcome back in the clubhouse.
    He clearly needs a change of scenery, and his make-up issues won’t hurt as much with the fanbase because 99% have never heard of the guy.
    The questions come down to his motivation. He can go play football any time he wants, and I just worry that if he hits a rough patch, or gets into a bit of trouble in Tacoma that he’ll go into operation shut down. A risk worth taking, of course, but then, that’s probably what a dozen teams are thinking.
    What would TB want right now for him? Fruto? Maybe Huber? Perhaps, but then a bidding war could erupt, and that’ll push the M’s out of contention. It’s tough because TB is so stacked – we could offer them a BOR starter, in the Livingston/Jimenez/Campillo mold, but then, they’ve got Sonnanstine. We could offer MI help, but they’ve got Brignac, Zobrist, Longoria, etc. They have better corner ‘spects than we do. It’s tough.

  54. slim said

    Jake Woods would instantly become Tampa Bay’s 2nd or 3rd best starter, that’s how bad that team’s rotation is.

  55. marc w. said

    True, slim. But he’ll also have to beat out X number of TB’s minor leaguers, from Sonnanstine to Jeff Niemann (long shot). And they’ve got more on the way. I don’t think they care about running out some bad pitchers for a year or two, but hey, who knows – maybe they’d give us Gomes or Dukes for Cesar Jimenez or Woods. Fine by me.

  56. Lowry is not an arby case, he signed an extension thru 09 with an option for 2010.

    Re: Sexson-Soriano

    Probably a decent value in return, but trades are all about fit. While SF remains the best fot for Sexson if he’s dealt, they don’t have the bait in return.

    SF needs pitching, especially since Schmidt isn’t likely returning, and they don’t have a ton of cash to spend. Trading Cain makes NO SENSE, and dealing Sanchez makes only a little more than that… they need their young pitching to give them something or they’ll be out spending 5-6 mil a year on short-term investments like Meche, Suppan, Wells… yuck.

    But if you throw in Soriano, well, that changes a lot. SF could use Soriano to close and in that case, it might be worth dealing Sanchez… but that isn’t nearly enough to get the two M’s from my grasp.

    SF doesn’t have enough, unless Cain is Involved, and that isn’t happening. Martinez-Esteve and Ishikawa don’t excite me in the least, and Sanchez is a second part of a trade of that magnitude.

    Sexson alone? I’d take Sanchez and Martinez-Esteve, but why would SF do that?

  57. Willmore said

    Didn’t bother to check Lowry status, but it makes sense. I agree with you on every point.

    Another wild stab at who I would want in Seattle, not necessarily who is available. What about Erik Bedard ? It’s probable a year too late , and he’s likely their #2 starter, but what would you think it would take to get him ? Could Baltimore be stupid enough to add even more offense to that club at the expense of Bedard ? Sexson + Soriano + Jones for Bedard and someone. How high are they on Markakis ?

  58. Jason,
    I can’t imagine the M’s trading Jones. He’s got all the tools and only 21. Don’t know why the M’s haven’t had him out there in the outfield, even if it’s only platooning him with Snelling. I thought Feierabend looked very good in his brief appearances. You know these guys better than we do. Has Lowe had any starting experience with the M’s. I’d be interested to know the reasons you think he might be a solid starter.
    Don

  59. Bedard is as untouchable as Orioles get… they LOVE him, and should. He’s better than Zito already.

    Re: Jones

    They aren’t going to, unless they get a young and at least somewhat cheap perennial all-star MOTO bat or frontline starter in return.

  60. Willmore said

    As for Lowe, he did have some starting experience in the low minors, but wasn’t very good. It’s questionable if he would be successful as a starter. For the forseeable future, he’s a reliever.

  61. slim said

    I’d like to see the M’s explore a trade for Nick Johnson. He’s signed at $5.5 million per year for the next 3 years, which is dirt cheap for a guy that’s a notch above Ibanez offensively.

    The Nats have exactly ZERO starting pitchers with experience. They’ve got a perennially injured Patterson and the rookie O’Conner, and that’s about it as far as experienced guys. They ought to be interested in Washburn if the M’s are indeed willing to eat $6 million off his deal.

    They also need a CF (Nook Logan?!) and maybe Bavasi can convince them that Reed is what they need.

    Plus the M’s could throw Broussard in the deal to give the Nats a more-than-serviceable 1B replacement.

    I think Washburn (+$$), Broussard, and Reed could land Johnson. Maybe the Nats would throw in Ryan Church, whom they seem to have no love for. Church would make a fine 4th OF and lefty bench bat. Jake Woods and Julio Mateo might have some value to the Nats as well

    If the Nats demand Adam Jones instead of Reed, I might consider the deal if they’re willing to take on all of Washburn’s remaining salary.

  62. marc w. said

    I like it, Slim – I don’t think it’d take that much to get Johnson, though it’s worth remembering that he’s hurt (again), and his injury troubles make Patterson look like Lou Gehrig.
    I say Reed+Broussard+(pitcher X – Cruceta, Jimenez, whatever)+a bit of cash might get you Johnson. He’s got a horribly broken leg right now, so it’s also worth considering when he’s able to rehab and get back on the field.

    If the Nats demand Adam Jones, I’d tell them to go copulate with themselves. Seriously, Washburn Broussard and Jones? With money on top? That should get you Soriano+Johnson, not just Johnson.

  63. slim said

    I’m not as high on Jones as most people are, I guess. He’s not a good fit for Seattle anytime in the near future, IMHO. Jones’ bat projects as the worst kind for Safeco – righty pull 25 homer power, plus his presence in CF means we sacrifice a power bat in RF where Ichiro would inevitable be.

    I wouldn’t send any money in any deal involving Jones though. The price for him is getting Washburn’s contract off our hands.

    The Nats like Nick Johnson a lot. He’s extremely affordable and productive. He won’t go for cheap.

  64. marc w. said

    Eh, you may be right. But they can keep what is, at heart, a fatter, slower version of Chris Snelling if they want our best prospect and a MOR starter. I like Johnson too, but let’s be real: he’s always hurt, and can’t play D except for 1B (and not all that well, according to UZR).

    I think Jones’ ‘audition’ has spoiled people to what was developing as a truly remarkable season. He was 20, in AAA, in a pitcher’s park, and hit 16 HRs in 3/5ths of a season or so. He didn’t pull all of them by any stretch. His batspeed blew me away, and given the park and his age, I simply don’t think we can ‘cap’ his future power at 25/year anymore. He was well on his way to that this year…at 20. He hit for little power in his cup of coffee/fly ball shagging sessions with Mike Goff, but he made a significant leap last year, and I think most GMs around the league know it.

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