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I’ve Changed My Mind…

Posted by Jason A. Churchill on November 10, 2006

I would NOT sign Jason Schmidt. I wouldn’t sign Adam Eaton. I wouldn’t trade for a relatively expensive bench bat, or sign any big-money player to a one two or three-year, multi-million dollar contract.

If Jason A. Churchill were the General Manager of the Seattle Mariners, I’d sit on my hands and make low-risk, medium-to-high reward moves.

The free agent market sucks… again. Every single top-tier talent will be grossly overpaid, no matter which club lands them. It’s one thing to be overpaid; all professional athletes and entertainers are overpaid. But to be so atrociously overcompensated for a 3-5 year period, well, it’s an abomination and I would not participate.

Not this winter.

J.D. Drew just opted out of a 5-year, $55 million deal that he signed just two seasons ago, even though he was due $33 million over the final three seasons. Why? Because his agent, Scott Boras, advised him how much more he can get and who he can get it from. At worst, Drew is likely to get the same $11 million salary, but for at least four seasons, rather than the three that remained on his contract with the Dodgers.

He’s also likely to get that new deal with a team much closer to his home in the South, somewhere like, say, Houston or Baltimore, which is why Drew, the player, opted out in the first place.

Drew isn’t worth $11 million a season. Jason Schmidt isn’t worth more than two years and somewhere around $8 million per, but some dumb organization, maybe the Emerald City’s Finest, is going to hand the soon-to-be 34-year-old righthander $10-12 million per season for three or four years.

The Seattle Mariners are in a tough spot. Their GM and field skipper have used up 8 ½ lives and have to win now, or else. The front office has to do something to bring back the mojo on First and Edgar. The suits, including Mr. Yamauchi, only care about their own bank accounts and will always do what makes them cash, which is to say they will do whatever will put butts in the seats at Safeco Field.

And they don’t need to win to do that, at least not on the surface. All they need to do is create excitement to spur offseason ticket sales. They don’t spend their time, money and energy on building a winning baseball team, they use up their resources putting together a moneymaker, which would partly explain why they have been so unsuccessful on the field of late.

Instead of putting a winner on the diamond, which in turn would certainly make them assloads of dough , they do what they believe is the best way to fill as many seats as possible.

That is insane.

Imagine sitting at your desk or at the dining room table while a small and perhaps geeky crowd gather around as you work on a Rubik’s Cube, your favorite thing in the world to do – perform in front of people. They all want to see you solve the classic puzzle box, and the faster you do so the more interesting and entertaining it is for them.

But instead of trying to solve the Rubik’s, which may take you hours but is exactly what the audience wants to see and experience, you try to do whatever it takes to keep them interested enough to stay and ooh and aah, without doing the work and actually getting the deed done.

Greedy. Lazy. Preposterous.

The M’s tried to take the easy way out of the hole they dug themselves in 2002 and 2003. When they should have been rebuilding on the run by methodically saying goodbye to the vets and adding younger talent, they were trying for the quick fix.

So here they are, three years in the cellar, and while things are certainly looking up, they are two years behind the process. The year 2006 should have been year one of actual contention, not a sub-.500 club with as many holes as the corkboard in Lou Piniella’s office. But since the suits insist on the quick fix, Bill Bavasi’s job is that much tougher.

This isn’t about me saying Bavasi is a great GM and has not been given anything to work with. Bavasi may be a bad GM, but the thing is, we’ll never know. What if he had the freedom to do things in a manner that did not represent the upper management’s current motives?

What if Bavasi could pass on the entire free agent class of 2006, and head to spring training status quo? Because that’s what I would want to do, with the possible exception of a few low-cost additions that could burst into a great signing or two.

Spending up to the payroll limits just to avoid leaving financial resources on the table can do one of a few things to a club each season.

1) Everything can work out fine, the team wins 95 games and go into the playoffs, making everyone happy and excited about the Mariners again.

2) A few things might work out, a few might not, meaning that quite a bit of cash went to players that aren’t performing, or are spending too much time in street clothes.

3) A disaster. The pitcher you sign gets hurt in year one, and as he enters year two of a four-year deal at age 35, he’s even more of a health risk after all the nagging days spent on the DL the previous season.

The mid-rotation innings eater you signed that used your own ’05 offseason mistake as a salary comparison to get No. 2 starter money out of ya, turns out to be no better than the league-average arm you signed last winter. Surprise, surprise.

And the bat you traded for, that makes big money over the next two or three years, is siked out by Safeco Field and ends up hitting 30 points below his career average and can’t seem to get his power stroke going, wasting the prospects you surrendered to get him in the first place.

What a friggin’ waste.

What are the chances that it’s No. 1? Yeah, not very good.

No. 2 might not be so bad, it’s pretty much where the M’s are today, but that isn’t working out too well, is it?

Bavasi has no choice. He has to spend whatever cash he can to save his gig. Manager Mike Hargrove “recommends” the same because he has a job to save, too. But it’s not the right thing to do.

I’m not advocating doing nothing at all. The club needs changes, whether they are talent-lateral moves or true upgrades. But the M’s should stay away from all the top free agents and avoid trading away cheap, young talent for expensive, aging veterans.

Simply put, the Seattle Mariners cannot afford to become the nest for a half-dozen albatross-like contracts, most of which would have been given to undeserving players.

The team should be thinking about the early prime years of the foundation of the roster, such as Jose Lopez, Yuniesky Betancourt and Felix Hernandez.

Howard Lincoln and the suit boys just keep digging that hole deeper and deeper every year, and as they do so it drags down the GM and all of his cohorts in the scouting and player development, without ever really giving them a chance to truly build a team,  Whether they were truly capable of the task, or not, is irrelevant.

Bavasi is going to make at least two mistakes this winter, because he’s fighting for his job and has no choice but to take enormous risks.

He loses either way.

There’s almost no chance that Bavasi retains his job beyond 2007, if the suit boys stick to their guns.

I’m so disgusted with the lack of true worthwhile free agents that I just don’t see how an aggressive free-spending philosophy makes any sense for the club right now. The longer the suit boys wish to manage their franchise in this manner, the team’s success will be dependent on three things and three things only.

Luck, luck and Bob Fontaine.


41 Responses to “I’ve Changed My Mind…”

  1. Goose said

    Sometimes I wish we could just hit the reset button and start over.

  2. Drew said

    I guess Jeremy Bonderman will now be staying put….and I had my fingers crossed!! lol

  3. marinerswinws said

    I hate Lincoln and Amrstrong.

  4. Bonderman was going to cost an arm and two testicals anyways, and Seattle’s suit boys have none to begin with, so Seattle never would have had a chance anyhow.

  5. Baseballistic said

    I just heard the Red Sox may have won the Daisuke Matsuzaka bidding with a 38-45Million bid. While I’m happy the BoSox got him, that money is just egregious, preposterous, and downright OUTRAGEOUS. 3yrs 90Million??? I know they’ve got the money but…

    I’m starting to believe the M’s were right not to participate in the bidding, lest they would’ve been tempted to go all in for Matsuzaka.

    I don’t know how to feel about the BoSox potential move. Was it simply to block the Yankees from Matsuzaka? Was it to gain another top-tier starting pitcher at any cost? Was it to get a stake in the suddenly hot Japanese market? It would seem incredibly rude just to bid to prevent DM from going to another team. Could that have been the BoSox motive?

    Any insight, Jason?

    By the way, this is yet another example of the gross overpaying that’s going to happen and is already happening in baseball this offseason.

  6. Bringback#24 said

    Hey Jason even though we have rumsfeld and bush running our team into the ground what chance is there that they look into Andruw Jones or Vernon Wells?

  7. Flip Flop, Flip Flop!


    I’m with ya, Mr. Churchill. This market sucks, the M’s don’t stand a chance, even if they are aggressive in it, and as long as CHowArmLinStrong are still around, this team doesn’t deserve to win.

    At least we’ll still have Tacoma.

  8. Willmore said

    Well, I didn’t like the free agent market to begin with either, except for Matsuzaka, but since he’s gone, we might still go after Igawa and feel fine. Beyond that, you’re right. However, such a starved free-agent market creates a prime opportunity for some blockbuster trade at the winter meetings. Clubs with deficiencies will overpay to compensate. Look at the Sheffield trade – an injury-plagues 38-year old is commanding 3 pretty good prospects ? What could Sexson fetch us from Detroit, they need a 1st-baseman ? If a team thinks it’s a few pieces away from getting to the playoffs or getting the title and it has a nice plump budget, it will find ways to get the better player in a trade. And with how close the division played out last year, there are a lot of GMs with the pressure to add the pieces that can get his team over the hump. This is a perfect year to capitalize on that and grab some top minor-leaguers who can be here in 2008 and 2009 when Felix is dealing. We need a goal, and I think that we should shoot for a deep post-season run in 2009 with 2008 being the year we get most of the pieces, and might make the playoffs.

    It’s not abandoning ship, it’s simply changing the course to accommodate weather condition (I should have captained the Titanic.)

  9. Walrus said

    Wilmore and Jason…I like the ideas, but Shapiro or Beane do not work for the Mariners. IT is time to pray there are bigger idiots (Toronto, Baltimore, Chicago, either NY and hopefully LA-Anaheim)out there who will out bid Bavasi on the free agents the Mariners target.

  10. Pestilent Pony said

    “Siked” out?

    Maybe Bavasi can do something this offseason by using some reverse sikeology on someone.

  11. BoratForPresident said

    So wait another year…for what? It’s not like prices will magically go down for FA’s or big money contracts will suddenly become a thing of that past. The only thing that happens is your own stars get older and lose value. Sure…wait another year, only to see it all over again.

  12. thr33niL said

    Bavasi has yet to pull of a trade that has benefited the Mariners. What makes you think he will start now?

  13. Percentages, threenil.

    Re: Borat

    I’m not saying WAIT til 07 to sign big names FAs, I’m saying SAY NO to this crop, and any other that are this bad.

    There isn’t a single big-time free agent in this year’s group that warrant the risk they come with. Not one.

    Not Schmidt, not Soriano, Lee, Mussina… none of them are worth the multi-year deals they seek. It’s not the yearly salary alone, it’s the investment the club has to put forth to land the player. Four, five and maybe six years, times 10, 12, 15 million a year?

    The Mariners aren’t close enough to being a contender to warrant that sort of move. Ya have to get over .500 before that becomes a reality.

    The M’s aren’t there, maybe they will be next year… who knows. But until then, it’s a colossal waste of money.

  14. As long as the FA class is made of post-peak guys signing for more than 10M$ per year and at four years or more it isn’t worth getting involved with unless you are going to go the Toronto route and add three or more of them, or if you are a team like Detroit, Chicago, Anaheim who feels you are one player away.

    Signing two of those deals this offseason that wind up making the club worse in ’08 while improving the club by a whole 5-6 wins for ’07 accomplishes nothing.

  15. Edman said

    Jason, I can’t disagree more.

    I understand your feelings, and I agree, somewhat. However, you can’t sit on your hands, either. Seattle NEEDS three starting pitchers. Will they overpay on the FA market? Absolutely, just like very other team does. Is that a reason to turn your head? No.

    Next years market may be even worse, if the last two are any indicator.

    So, I fully support signing Schmidt, recognizing that he may not be the pitcher he use to be, but recognizing he knows how to win with what he’s got. Moreso, I support signing him to take the focus off of Felix. Schmidt is use to the spotlight, and will serve as a good example for the King. So, I regard it as OJT, for the apparent King. Yes, you take risks……but baseball isn’t a game that tends to be kind the the meek minded who fear making a bad deal.

    Eaton should at least be the pitcher we expected Joel to be last season. I don’t expect him to be stellar, but I think he can at least be a workhorse. Seattle NEEDS starters who can go at least six innings. It hurt them badly last year, putting in a lot of extra innings for the bullpen.

    You have to do something. You can’t wait for a good crop of Free Agents….you may wait forever.

    You pays your money, you takes your chances. Seattle can’t afford to give up before the season begins.

  16. slim said

    I have to disagree on two marquee names: JD Drew and Barry Bonds. If I’m the GM, I’d bring either of those guys in at market value.

    Drew carries a steep price tag at 5 years/$60 million. But he also fills a major need that few other players can. We’ve been clamoring for a defensive LF and a MOTO bat for as long as I can remember. The list of players who fit that dscription is short: Matsui, Abreu, Dunn, Hawpe, Drew, and Beltran. After that you get guys who are questionable MOTO bats and/or defenders. When a guy like Drew is available, its a big deal.

    Drew may only play 120 games a year, but the M’s are going to be much better off with 120 games of Drew and 40 games of Clement, Jones, or LaHair than they would be with 160 games of Benuardo or virtually any other realistic option which likely requires trotting Raul out to LF every day. It’ll cost the team an extra $6-7 million for this upgrade. Its worth it, IMHO, especially since the M’s need to spend this money to comfort the fanbase.

    Bonds represent the only alternative I can think of (unless one of the lefty DH sluggers can be pried away from some stupid team) that would justify keeping Raul in LF for another year. Bonds is still a better hitter than all but a handful of players, and he was improving as he go healthier towards the end of the year. Plus, he’s virtually free. He’ll sell all the extra tickets needed to cover his salary without difficulty. The suits have shown that they’ll bring in the problem players and confirmed steroid users with Everett and Lawton last year – moves which I tend to believe may have been made with a future run at Bonds in mind.

    If the opportunity arises to bring in either of these two players, I’d jump all over it.

  17. Edman said

    Drew is a franchise cancer. What he’s pulling on the Dodgers is a clear indicator of his modivation…..money. Those modivated by only money, tend to be headaches later on.

    Avoid him like the plague.

  18. We’ve been clamoring for a defensive LF and a MOTO bat for as long as I can remember. The list of players who fit that dscription is short: Matsui, Abreu, Dunn, Hawpe, Drew, and Beltran.

    Wait, what? Dunn a ‘defensive’ LF? The other guys, perhaps, are okay, but Dunn?


    Okay, that was mean. Still, bwahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

  19. Ben said

    Bitch and Wine…

    C’mon man…why do you even cover the M’s if this is the way you actually feel?

    We should sit on your hands and not do anything because we can’t accomplish anything this year?……Questioning if ownership has the desire to win?….suggesting that they’re only in it for the money?

    These really are quite the accusations.

    This is the SAME ownership that turned a lot of us into Mariner Fans. Not to mention that this team wouldn’t even be around if they didn’t pony up the money for a dying franchise in 1992….esp. when there was no financial reason to do so. Now all you can do is criticize them when we hit a rough patch?…even though this was the first ownership that gave us something to root for?

    Operationally, most of us (including myself) don’t know what it takes to run a Major League Franchise day in and day out. Judging by most of the posts around here….most of them would run the franchise straight into the ground just to have that one winning season. I don’t know about you….but I’d like to have Mariner baseball around year after year. Who are we to critcize business strategy when we, frankly, have no idea.

    Now, it would be different if there was indisputable evidence that the owners were grossly over-profiting from the way they were doing business….but there isn’t any! If there is….SHOW IT TO ME. The only indisputable evidence I see is the M’s (over the last three years) managing to come close (or slightly over) breaking even during that time period.

    I wouldn’t be fan if I didn’t believe in the people that ran my favorite team…Well maybe except for Hargrove (but I’m sure he at least has that desire to win). I have faith that’s why I stick through the good and the bad…I’m an M’s fan.

    Seriously…I REALLY value your opinion when it comes to scouting. It’s what makes your blog better than 99% of the Self-run Mariner Weblogs out there. But you sound awfully bandwagon whenever I see these posts….and that saddens me.

    I want to read about how well our boys are doing in their fall leagues. I want to know possible reasons as to why our prospects may be struggling and if they have the ability to pull out of it. I want to know about who the M’s may be scouting for the next possible amatuer draft. Be the prospect insider that delivers us some hope….cause God knows we need some.

  20. Ben said

    “Howard Lincoln and the suit boys just keep digging that hole deeper and deeper every year, and as they do so it drags down the GM and all of his cohorts in the scouting and player development, without ever really giving them a chance to truly build a team, Whether they were truly capable of the task, or not, is irrelevant.”

    Player development and scouting was never really used in the Lou Piniella years….arguably the best years in M’s history. The only farm player to find success (and the only player Piniella gave a chance to) was Alex Rodriguez.

    Bill Bavasi was really the first to use the dept. this extensively since Piniella left.

  21. Goose said

    “Drew is a franchise cancer. What he’s pulling on the Dodgers is a clear indicator of his modivation…..money. Those modivated by only money, tend to be headaches later on.

    Avoid him like the plague. ”

    If he can help us win, that’s all that matters. I could really care less about a players personality anymore. All that is important is performance and winning.

  22. Jed said

    Goose, I’d agree with you on personality until it ends up in the police blotter where player X has been arrested for beating his wife or player Y has 14 kids with 12 different women in 12 different states. I know player Y’s situation doesn’t directly affect the play on the field. Whether or not a guy is a born-again, is Buddhist, likes dogs, swims in a pool of money, likes long walks on the beach, etc. is so irrelevant for my baseball watching pleasure.

    I also don’t understand why a player opting out of a contract is such a bad thing. The Dodgers gave him the option and he took it for business reasons. If they didn’t want him to leave, they wouldn’t have put it in the contract. They also declined the option on Gagne for business reasons and nobody stopped rooting for the Dodgers because of that – except for the Gagne family.

  23. slim said

    Why is JD Drew always playing in the Playoffs? We need us some clubhouse cancer apparently. I couldn’t care less if Ichiro is constantly pissed at JD, as long as we’re winning.

  24. Willmore said

    With a career .233/.320/.349 postseason line, who cares ?

    Drew gets you to the playoffs, not wins there.

  25. Edman said

    LMFAO…..you want to believe Drew is some form of “Superstar” player, who makes others better around him…..well….simply because he’s magical and his teams get to the playoffs…..then believe away.

    A-Rod is a far better player, all around, and he couldn’t vault his teams to the playoffs. Is he jinxed?

    Drew has yet to prove he’s a sustaining presence. When he actually gets to that plain that’s above the frey, let me know.

    And yes, attitude counts. You have to have a desire to win, moreso than a desire to be wealthier.

    Oh, and one more thing about his opt out clause, you can bet that wasn’t the Dodger’s idea, but rather Drew’s agent. It was a clever little plan, in case Drew’s value went up, so he could make even more money.

    I don’t want people like that on this team. You guys and gals let me know when you get all excited about having someone join your project team at work, knowing that he/she is in it for themselves, and wouldn’t lose an ounce of sleep to self promote their worth to the “team”.

  26. Pslim said

    I remember the playoffs. Ah, the good old days. Seriously, you’re worried about signing a guy because he stinks in the playoffs?

    Drew isn’t THE reason the Cardinals, Braves, and Dodgers made the playoffs. But he sure as hell helped out and his clubhouse “cancer” tag didn’t seem to slow his teams down at all.

    Drew isn’t really a cancer anyway. He’s a very private guy who keeps to himself. His teammates don’t hate him, they just don’t connect with him. He gets his feelings hurt easily and allows it to affect his play (and his time spent on the field), which makes Seattle the PERFECT destination for him. What manager in baseball is better at protecting a veteran from getting his feelings hurt than Mike Hargrove?

  27. First rule of a team that sucks…don’t worry about playoff performance, worry about making the playoffs.

  28. Edman said

    For the money he wants, Drew has too many risks…..especially emotionally and in regard to maturity.

    Pass……he’s not complete enough for the money he’s expecting.

  29. Replacement level player said

    Edman Said: “Oh, and one more thing about his opt out clause, you can bet that wasn’t the Dodger’s idea, but rather Drew’s agent. It was a clever little plan, in case Drew’s value went up, so he could make even more money.”

    Actually it was a mutual opt out clause, and it may have been the Dodger’s idea to put it in there since Drew has an injury history. Would you bash the Dodger’s if he had been injured and they cut him loose?

    I don’t get it, he took advantage of a mutually agreed upon clause in his contract. If it made sense for him to do something that both sides agreed to in the first place then why shouldn’t he?!

  30. Edman said

    Charactor…..if you don’t get that….well, then sorry.

  31. StandinPat said

    Edman, if a player is worth well more than his current contract, including the final option year, and that option is a team option. Does that team show a lack of character by picking it up?

  32. Willmore said

    Edman, you’re talking out of your ass.

    First of all, if you can’t spell, use a spellchecker. The word is character. And this action on Drew’s part has no relation to it. If you can stand there and say that when you’re offered 45 million or 33 million you will choose 33 million, then you’re a better man (and perhaps a dumber man) than most. Baseball is a business in which a player has until 40 years of age to earn as much money as possible to last him the rest of his life in comfort, and in the grand scheme of things, the extra cash he’s getting isn’t that much of a difference, but it’s a big difference to his accountant. Drew has not reason to be loyal to the Dodgers. He has no reason to be loyal to anyone just like any player in baseball. Sure, there are players like Dan Wilson and Edgar Martinez that stay with one team, and it’s cute and from a fan’s standpoint – the right thing. But if you were in the shoes of a player, a team is nothing but a paycheck, and one is just as good as the other.

    Drew did what he thought was best for him, and he was right.

    PS: That doesn’t mean I want him on our team, he costs too much and will not provide enough of a boost to warrant such an investment at this point.

  33. Edman said

    Willmore…..shove your grammer gloating ego up your…… Last I knew, this wasn’t stuff being submitted to the editor of the Daily Planet for public distribution.

    As for Drew, it goes back to the VERY beginning….when he FORCED the Phillies to trade him, because her REFUSED to play for them after being drafted. This latest tactic is a further extention of his already inflated ego. Yes, he’s within his right to get a better contract. But, I have NO ADMIRATION for any guy who’s only commitment is to what’s best for him. That isn’t the making of a good foundation for a team.

    Drew is all hype. He’s had only ONE 100 RBI season….last year……and, only ONE “ALL STAR” season…..2001. There are a lot of similar options, for a lot less money.

  34. slim said

    “There are a lot of similar options, for a lot less money.”

    Like whom?

    Credibility waning quickly alert.

  35. Edman said

    Sorry Slim, I don’t have to prove a thing to you. IMHO, Drew is a good baseball player, but he doesn’t offer anything more than we currently get from Raul, with the exception of OBP, which doesn’t warrant the pay he’s seeking.

    I don’t give a rat’s ass enough about this to have to “prove” my beliefs. Since I don’t live to validate my beliefs, you’ll be waiting a long time for me to run down all the options and why I feel that way.

    As for credibility…..well, just what have you offered that makes you believe that you’re somehow more well informed than others, enough so, that you feel comfortable to call someone else out?

  36. jp17 said

    Only gives us what Raul does, but with a better OBP?

    And that’s a bad thing?

    Drew’s drawbacks are his injury history. There are alot of jackasses/primmadonnas/whatever in baseball and some that have played for Seattle in the past, it’s nothing new.

    You must work in the M’s PR dept.

    There are reasons to not want Drew, bringing up his character shouldn’t be topping the list…..unless you are running a little league team.

  37. J said

    “Drew is a good baseball player, but he doesn’t offer anything more than we currently get from Raul, with the exception of OBP, which doesn’t warrant the pay he’s seeking.”


    I’m not suggesting that it makes up for the cost disparity between the two, but Drew is a significantly better defender and the M’s have had, and will probably continue to have, a staff that gets their fair share of flyballs.

  38. And what would be so wrong with getting a slightly younger Raul Ibanez with better defensive skills?
    And people should stop assuming about “the money he is seeking.” He, nor his agent Scott Boras have said jack about the money he wants. He opted out of his contract for three reasons, number THREE being that he and Boras think he can get more annually than the 11 mil per he was set to earn from LAD.
    Number one was about getting at least four years out of it, and number two was about location.

    He’s from the southeastern region of the country and has always preferred that area, or somewhere much closer than LA.

  39. Bringback#24 said

    J.D Drew as a free agent makes about as much sense as anyone to the M’s front office.Lets break it down.First Drew can’t stay in one place for more than two years so that is a good match because the M’s don’t like deals longer than two years.Second he has never played in the american league,perfect f/a for the M’s.And how bout’ that Scott Boras, what better a guy is there for matching $$$$ with.Lastly we can use the come home pitch because he’s from Georgia which we all know is just a few south of Seattle.Well sarcasm aside he is a very gifted player but we are not what he i$ looking for even if he knew what he was looking for. J.D. try philly they will love you.

  40. Edman said

    Yeah, Jason….I’m sure Drew’s going to accept less than the $11 million a year he could have made, just to add some years. Name the last Boras client that took less money.

    I wouldn’t mind having a younger Ibanez, just not at nearly twice the price. I’d rather put that money toward a legitimate power hitter, like Lee. I don’t think either of them are worth what they’ll get….but it’s the market. Overpaid? Absolutely, but since when have Pro sports salaries made sense?

  41. Willmore said

    Would you accept a 1-year 20 mil deal, if you could get a 2 year 36 million dollar deal ? It’s stupid. More money in the majors is more years, because all the money is guaranteed. If he takes a pay-cut per year, but adds 2-3 years, he’ll end up the winner.

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