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Four Added to 40-man, Bohn Claimed

Posted by Jason A. Churchill on November 20, 2006

The M’s finalized their rule 5 moves today, designating righthander Jorge Campillo for assignment, and sending outfielder TJ Bohn through waivers, where he was claimed by the Atlanta Braves.

Seattle outrighted righthander Travis Chick to Triple-A Tacoma and added four players to the reserve roster, which is now tapped at 40.

First baseman Bryan LaHair, 24, second baseman Michael Garciaparra, 23,  outfielder Mike Wilson, 23 and 23-year-old southpaw Ryan Rowland-Smith filled out the 40-man.  All four were rule 5 eligible.

Rowland-Smith was selected by Minnesota two winters ago but was returned midway through spring training when the Mariners refused the trade offer made by the Twins, who wanted to option the reliever to their Double-A club.

He’s likely to start his 2007 season with Tacoma, as are Garciaparra, LaHair and Wilson, and all have a chance to see a cup of joe in the bigs this season.

Campillo may make it through waivers, and if he does, could be sent to Triple-A Tacoma to continue his solid return from Tommy John Surgery.

Garciaparra was unavailable for comment at press time, but I’ll catch up with him and see how he feels about todays news.

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116 Responses to “Four Added to 40-man, Bohn Claimed”

  1. Walrus said

    Jason,
    I know there isn’t much difference but….Is Garciaparra worth that much more than Bohn or an injured Campillo? Middle Inf Vs. OF makes some sense, but…
    I realize you try to ptotect the best 40 guys, but couldn’t the Mariners find someone more valuable than Garciaparra?

  2. There isn’t much difference, no, but as far as MG v TJ goes, it’s more about potential future role than anything. While reserve second basemen are a dime a dozen, fourth or fifth outfielders are on permasale for a penny.

    Campillo may return yet.

  3. And no, there wasn’t anyone else that needed to be protected that they could have selected. Most of the top talents are at least a year away from being rule 5 eligible.

  4. Walrus said

    So, if the Reed trade nets the Mariners an extra player to the 40 man roster (1 for 2 deal or 2 for 3), who gets DFA’d?

  5. Reed is a 40-man roster guy, so it’s an even swap. This time of year, all the 60-day DL guys count toward the 40-man reserve roster, so Reed is among the 40 as we speak.

    But if the deal goes down as I have heard, it’s not a 40-man roster guy, but it is one that is rule 5 eligible if he’s not protected, so, he’d probably be placed on it and take up Reed’s spot.

  6. Walrus said

    Jason,
    Where would I find info on Matt Lindstrom…I can not find a site for Birmingham…

  7. Edman said

    Go to http://www.baseballamerica.com……..or……..www.milb.com for career stats

  8. Lindstrom’s quick SR…

    93-96 mph fastball, tick below average curve, average slider, not-so-useful change and well below average command.

    He’s Clint Nageotte with more velo and he’ll be 27 in Feb… don’t get excited, he’s probably headed for relief work in Seattle after making 35 relief appearances for the Mets’ AA club a year ago.

    I still think there might be more than just the two players in this deal.

  9. Walrus said

    Jason and Edman…thanks.
    Hopefully I don’t get you in trouble Jason..

  10. Edman said

    I certainly hope so, Jason, I’m not real thrilled with Lindstrom. Seattle’s got better choices of it’s own.

  11. Edman said

    I looked, and there’s not a whole lot of information on him. I use to visit this really nice career minorleague stats page, but I can’t remember it’s name anymore.

  12. TheBaseballCube.com, Edman.

    And Walrus, why would anything get me in trouble, and with whom?

  13. Drew said

    Jason, when is the Rule 5 draft done this year?

  14. Salty Dog said

    Good quote on Lindstrom from this year’s Futures game:

    During his pregame speech to his club, U.S. manager Gary Carter concluded his gameplan by saying, “Linny, you’re pitching the seventh and leading us to the promised land.” After Carter, who manages high Class A St. Lucie in the Mets system, tabbed Mets farmhand Matt Lindstrom as his closer, Sharpless said, “I’ve heard he can hit 100 mph, and I can believe it.”

    Lindstrom topped Sharpless’ expectations. First, he blew away Giants first baseman Pablo Sandoval on three straight 99 mph fastballs. Then he delivered 100 and 101 mph fastballs to Braves third baseman Yunel Escobar before fanning him on a 78 mph offspeed pitch that seemed just cruel. Lindstrom completed the save by getting Gonzalez to fly out to left field on a 100 mph pitch.

    The U.S. team mobbed Lindstrom in the dugout after the game, excited that he hit triple digits three times.

    “To be in a stadium like this, in front of a crowd like this, with Team USA on my chest, I just had a lot of adrenaline going,” Lindstrom said. “I just told myself to relax and throw strikes. Of course, I couldn’t relax but I still was able to throw some good pitches.”

  15. wsm said

    Garciaparra’s addition could have as much to do with the franchise wanting to save face on a former first rounder as anything.

    Campillo has the option of refusing his assignent to Tacoma, should he clear waivers. He probably will clear waivers, but this is a lousy year for that since I’m seeing a lot of teams with plenty of 40 man room to take a flier on guys, due to the new rules. He likely accept an assignment to Tacoma if he does clear though. My hunch is that his September callup was a kind of goodwill gesture to keep him interested in sticking around.

  16. Edman said

    Save face? Give me a feakin’ break. He’s an infielder who plays fair defense, draws walks, is still young, and hit for a decent average at Tacoma…..what more do you need to justify the choice?

    He’s certainly a better choice than Bohn.

  17. gwangung said

    He’s certainly a better choice than Bohn.

    And that’s all you need to know….

  18. RavingGoat said

    Matt Lindstrom got traded to the Marlins yesterday.

  19. One can most certainly speculate that whatever deal involves Reed could very much be merely one domino in a series of moves. Certainly what I’ve heard of the Reed deal would suggest this, too. If it goes down, I’m not particularly excited about it in isolation. But it does have some potential, and that’s all I’m going to say. Churchill and others have closer-hand info, so I’ll let them fill in the details as they so choose.

    Garciaparra is just now starting to come into his own. Health is a major concern with him (probably a family trait), but when he is healthy he seems to be developing well. He’ll never be a power hitter, but his on-base ability could be an asset to the M’s. He’s still young enough to have a bit of potential. He’s definitely a better fit for the M’s than Bohn was. And I’m probably a bigger fan of Bohn than a lot of folks. I think Little G has a bit more of a chance to be a useful player in the bigs. If Lopez goes down, I’d probably be a little more interested in having Little G fill in at this point than Willie Boom-Boom Dynamite.

  20. RavingGoat said

    I wish we could get something better from the Marlins but Reed is what he is.

  21. thr33niL said

    I heard Mike Jacobs’ name being thrown around somewhere. Doubt he could be netted by Reed alone.

  22. Trent said

    I think people are going to be severely disappointed if the trade winds that were blowing last night come to fruition.

  23. eknpdx said

    It’s a mystery, and the unknown is fun. If taken within the proper context – Reed’s realistic value at this time – I’m not sure how anyone could be disappoi . . scratch that, people would complain no matter what.

    Clues so far:

    Florida trades with Mets
    Possible non 40-man roster to M’s.

    Speculation:
    More than just Reed for “player a”

    It eliminates a lot of current prospects with the Marlins, and the two that came over from the Mets are on the 40 man roster as well.

    My next question for the panel:

    “Did the rumored player(s)from Florida play in anything above High A this year?”

  24. How can the disappointment surrounding Reed get worse? Just because he’s dealt away for the pitching equivalent? That’s rubbish.

    Sadly, Reed-for-Lindstrom is about right. If you wanna be disappointed about Reed’s tenure as a Mariner, that’s one thing. But being disappointed about that trade on its own valition is short-sighted. Because that’s about what he’s worth.

    I’ve heard there could be as many as five players involved in the trade however, and that it’s likely to set off deals that could include Richie Sexson, Rafael Soriano and prospects.

  25. Scott said

    Wow, this trade has that many levels to it? Jason, what would you say the chances are that this happens, and if so when?

  26. thr33niL said

    I just think it would be redundant to deal Reed for a reliever.

  27. Trent said

    I think you misinterpreted what I said JC. I was directly commenting on all the hype surrounding the return with Reed, not on Lindstrom or whoever else might be coming Seattle’s way. The thought that Reed could fetch Jacobs or one the Marlins young arms is silly.

    Sadly, Reed’s best value to the M’s is as their fourth OF. He’s cheap, young and anything could happen over the next year or two while he’s still cheap. I understand that he’s fallen out of graces with the brass and I’m in complete agreement that his involvement in any deal signaling a drastic roster shake-up is welcomed but flipping him just to move him isn’t in the M’s best interest IMO.

  28. Rob said

    This would make my offseason if this trade leads to Sexson getting dumped for Manny.

  29. marinerswinws said

    I wonder why Sexson is going to be traded, he is one of the few power sources on this team.

  30. Nighthawk180 said

    Hey JAC if these rumored trades happen will the mariners still look at the FA market or have they turned the cheek to the FA’s?

  31. josh_CFB said

    With regard to trading/acquiring players not on a 40-man… aren’t those guys now frozen until after the Rule 5 draft?

    So we might see the infamous Player To Be Named Later.

  32. Marinerman said

    I’ll bite my tougne until after the dust clears…but if we trade either Sexson or Soriano…and don’t get gold in return, we made a mistake.

  33. Edman said

    Well, Jason, by your more than generous hints, here’s my best speculation…..

    Trading Reed for Lindstrom, by itself, is pretty much a push trade, just different pieces. But, looking deeper, it would give Seattle a viable replacement for Soriano’s role in the bullpen. Soriano’s stock is pretty high at the moment, especially for a team looking for a young, inexpensive closer.

    Other players going back and forth, might sweeten the deal, but based on what you’ve said, I believe freeing Soriano up for trade is the biggest element.

    That done, it allows Seattle to be able to move Sexson and Soriano in a package. Considering the cost of pitching, I think the only way Seattle moves those two is for a quality starter, someone who’d be in the rotation for a few years, meaning both in regard to age and contractual situation. One might speculate further, considering that both Detroit and Baltimore are looking for a power hitter, that perhaps a Bonderman for Sexson/Soriano trade might be possible. It would give Seattle a young developing arm, Detroit their missing piece to continue their near-term goal of a WS title, as well as to be able to spin another arm for further help.

    So, lets now take a look at Seattle’s picture……

    They would lose a big piece in Sexson, but Soriano’s replaceable. But, in return, they get a future rotation that will contain Hernandez and Bonderman……..which is great for the future.

    Now, for the holes……

    With Richie’s contract out of the way, that leaves them the ability to go hard after Carlos Lee. Lee doesn’t have the same kind of power as Richie, but he hits for a better average….which would still provide some protection in the middle. From the deadline trade talk last year, it seems to me that Seattle’s pretty high on Lee. There are other options at first, but IMHO, that would be Seattle’s target. He can be had for roughly what they are currently paying Sexson, so it’s not really a financial burden. That also moves Raul to first, full-time, which is probably a good career move.

    Add to that, the addition of Schmidt and Delucchi (spelling?), and Seattle’s Winter is just about done.

    So, taking a breif glance, would this be so bad?

    Ichiro, CF
    Snelling, LF/RF
    Ibanez, 1B
    Lee, LF/DH
    Broussard or Delucci, DH/1B/LF
    Beltre, 3B
    Johjima, C
    Lopez, 2B
    Betancourt, SS

    Starting Pitching:

    Schmidt
    Hernandez
    Bonderman
    Washburn
    Lilly (OK, wishful thinking, but likely Baek)

    Bullpen:

    Putz
    Lindstrom
    Huber
    Sherrill
    (A fight for the remaining spots)

    I know it’s all speculation…..but I could see something similar happening. I could see Richie being traded, but ONLY if they feel they have a good shot as signing Carlos Lee.

    Fantasy is fun, isn’t it? I realize things are more likely to not happen, than to happen…..but it does show how a few roster changes can make a big difference in team make-up.

    With Soriano not going to the Angels…..the A’s losing Zito and Thomas……etc…..the West is still wide open. Perhaps I’ll change my mind after the winter feeding frenzie is over. But, I don’t see a clear winner in the AL West, as it sits now.

  34. thr33niL said

    I really doubt we sign Lee and Schmidt. Since reportedly the Orioles have already offered Lee 6 years and 90 mil. Compound that with the Cubs interest in Schmidt (and we all see how they have been throwing money around this year). He will get a 4 year offer from them I can pretty much guarantee.

    If we are to be players AT ALL in this market, we will have to overspend on someone pretty significantly. Scary.

  35. Trent said

    Edman, the first part of what you said makes sense and is a fit.

    But if they are able to put together what’s being discussed, they won’t be dealing Soriano and Sexson to Detroit. They’ve reupped Casey and have Sheffield, so they don’t have a need for a big bat and they have a terrific young pen.

  36. Edman said

    I wasn’t trying to nail any particular trade partner….just an example. Biggest key is being sure you have someone to take Sexson’s place, before you trade your only true power source.

  37. Goose said

    Carlos Lee seems to be almost off the market anyways. The two teams that seem to be left are the Orioles and the Astros. And I’m hearing numbers like 5/65 and 5/75.

  38. jp17 said

    Matthews Jr. reportedly signs with the Angels for 5/50.

    Pretty good competition for the worst deals of the season so far.

    Which is the biggest bust? Pierre, Matthews, or Soriano? At least Soriano will give them some good years.

    I just can’t believe the length these contracts are getting for guys over 30.

  39. Trent said

    Carlos Lee should be avoided at all costs anyway.

    If Sexson does get dealt, the other deal that would be in conjunction with that trade would more than supplement Sexson’s bat (not just power) in the lineup. Trust in JC when he say’s there are multiple layers to the deal. The Reed trade is just the preliminary step.

  40. Orlandu said

    I’m going with Juan Pierre for the worst free agent signing.

  41. Soriano is by far the worst signing…

    17Million a year for a guy who’s going to decline in a year or two, with the stolen bases and outfield range leaving him soon after.

    EqA for 2014 is .255 and the average of 2007-14 is .271. The Cubs got a lemon and they have only Jim Hendry to blame.

    By the way, now that he’s a Cub, Soriano might break his wrist diving for a flyball on opening day — the curse lives on!

  42. The thing with Soriano is, his value, and he does have value, is in his power. Say all you want about his stolen bases but in the end his extra-base prowess is his bread, butter and jellyroll. But include steals, if you must.

    So, think about what goes first when one ages… footspeed, handspeed, which would strongly suggest that his basestealing abilities will decline every year, probably starting as early as 07 or 08, and his bat speed will start a decline soon thereafter, which is all he has.

    He doesn’t work counts and he doesn’t draw walks, so he’s ultimately dependent on his bat speed to be productive. When that goes, or takes a steep hit over the next 3-4 years, what’s he going to be worth to any team?

    Edgar Martinez is among the better righty bats the AL has seen in the past 20 years. He’s not legendary, but he’s perennial all-star quality and was thr anchor of a lot of good lineups the M’s put out there between 93 and 2004.

    Edgar admittedly lost what he called “my wrists” in 2001, which probably means he started declining in bat speed in 1999 or 2000, but he was still able to remain an all-star bat for a 3-5 more years because he had advanced skills in other areas at the plate… such as covering the zone, pitch selection, recognition and patience.

    In 2000, likely year two of Edgar’s physical decline, he had his best statistical season in the home run department when he had 37 despite playing half his games at the Safe.

    Edgar was a plus bat through the age of 39 with about 60% of his prime abilities — because he was a smart hitter who didn’t rely solely on something athletic… athletic skills decline without exception. His wisdom and mental capacity was still there and enabled him to remain a worthy MOTO bat longer than his body allowed.

    Soriano has none of these non-physical skills to lean on. Terrible contract, but not for the 17 mil a season… years four thru eight might be an enormous albatross for the Cubs, and the final two seasons are surely going to be tough on them.

    Having said that, Gary Matthews, Jr and Juan Pierre’s contracts might be worse. Though each brings average or slightly above average center field defense, neither player is likely to give their clubs even ONE year of $9-10 million value.

    Soriano will hit, probably at a very high level for at least three, maybe four seasons at best, though he’s a slugger more than anything, but Matthews and Pierre – at their very best – aren’t worth what they received, even considering the ridiculous market.

    I’d be surprised if Matthews is a regular beyond 2009, and if he is, it might be because the Angels don’t want to use a 10 mil player as a reserve.

    Pierre sucks. Sure, he can swipe 50-60 bags a year and can cover some ground in center… but he doesn’t hit the gaps, EVER, as his .377 CAREER slugging percentage proves beyond any doubt, and his throwing arm is worse than mine – post Game 9 of my HS career when I tried to throw out the speedy Lawyer Milloy on a grounder in the hole, and my arm ended up in the first baseman’s glove with the ball.

    The stolen base is so overvalued… yuck.

    Pierre doesn’t get on base, either. Since when was a .351 OBP good for a leadoff man? That’s Pierre’s career number and he’ll be 30 in August… and ya know what? Here’s that point again… when Pierre’s speed starts to go, what’s he got?

    He’ll be 33 and 34 starting the final two years of his deal… He’s a better bet to be hitting .270/.320/.350 with 18-25 steals and well below average defensive range by year three, than he is to be better, or even sustain his career numbers.

    We’re seeing the same issue with Ichiro… he’s not quite as fast as he was in 2001-2002, and the shifts are constantly on when he comes to bat, so he’s having to actually hit the ball hard somewhere to get hits… he doesn’t walk and he doesn’t work counts… The differences between Pierre and Ichiro, however, are that Ichiro can hit the ball out of the infield and he has so much more defensive value than Pierre could ever dream of having.

  43. cujo said

    No one likes Sorianos contract but if anyones body can hold out it is the man of steal .Soriano is all lean muscle and he learned his work ethic in japanese baseball so i say its a long contract but i love it compared to Mathews are Pierre.When is are hometown 9 gonna do something?Havent heard a word other then guys on the internet.I see it as 2 starters Felix and Washburn and whoever maybe Baek are Woods in the 5 hole then what?The offense needs help also we better move fast are there will only be table scraps left.4 straight years in last and the attendance will make the front office all go away!

  44. Eric Davis was all muscle, too… but that didn’t stop him from breaking down and getting hurt…

    Soriano’s lack of body fat and physical conditioning won’t stop his bat speed from declining… it just won’t. By 09, the Cubs will be STUCK with him.

  45. etowncoug said

    JAC-

    I’m wondering if Soriano can prolong his effectiveness by a year if he were to use a lighter bat.

    I have to agree on the Matthews and Pierre deals, they are far worse. I suppose these things happen when teams are loaded with cash and they have nothing to spend it on.

  46. That could help, i guess, etown, but it has just as good a chance to effect him negatively and in the end it won’t stave off decline for very long, if it helps at all.

    Remember, with Soriano, we haven’t even started talking about him getting hurt and spending time of the DL with nagging injuries, let alone long-term injuries. Players who run a lot early in their careers thend to lose their legs in a hurry, too.

  47. Baseballistic said

    Just curious: has there been a single “smart” signing this offseason or at least one guy who wasn’t overpaid?

    One other question, where do you see Rich Aurilia going? His .341BA against lefties last year is very intriguing, as is his ability to play any infield position. Any chance either the M’s or Giants bring him back?

  48. cujo said

    #47 I would say Jamie Moyer could be the most reasonable even at his age his innings alone make it a good contract.

  49. The Mariners have zero need for a 3+ mil infielder who had a terrible experience in Seattle the first time around…

    Besides, why would Aurilia wanna be back here?

  50. Okori said

    Are you serious? I’d freak out right now if you weren’t wrong 50% of the time. Reed for a minor league package, and that trade spawns deals involving Sexson and Soriano??

    1) The guy who says you can not trade your main power source is absolutly correct. And he’s the only power guy in the system. The knock on Lehair (the main power guy in Tacoma) is that he doesn’t have a consistent power swing. Nelson can hit down there (and frankly I think he should be the right handed DH) but he’s no Sexson.
    2) Carlos Lee in like 500 lbs. And that’s in a walk year. You want to sign him to a big deal? You thought Beltre was a disappointment?
    3) The guy who said Reeds best value is as a 4th OF is right. Who wants to swap him for a RHP (middle reliever)? How many of these guys do we need? We have Putz, Soriano, Lowe, Mateo, Huber, Green, Fruto, Atch (who we just let go), Looper, Kahn (who’s a stud), etc.. This is the easiest position to fill in ALL of baseball. Heck that’s why Mateo should go. We don’t need to commit any money to that spot.

    The Matthews and Pierre deals inflated the deals for all hitters. Now Sexson and Beltre aren’t as big a busts. And lets be honest, Sexson at $14 mill in this market isn’t bad. Just think, how would you fill that spot? Durazo? Hatteberg? The only logical argument to that is that they are a last place team with him, they can finish in last without him too. But that’s not the goal is it? We want to make strides, and it’s hard to do that while giving up your main power source.

    I would trade Beltre. He’s what he is (a second half hitter), and in this market he becomes not a complete bust (I think he matches up well with A Rameriez). He hit 2 for us this year though, and you can lose a 2 hole hitter. The Times said there’s been offers for him. I’d take that and dump that salary.

    Why haven’t they looked at adding a legit power LHP in the pen? Sherrill looks like a specialist. I think to be really successful, you need a Stanton/Rhodes/Groom/Embree power arm. Rhodes BTW is a free agent and can be signed at $3 mil. He’d pitch the 8th, move Soriano/Sherrill to the 7th and make the pen automatic.

    SP wise, Schmidt’s are is done. He’s down in the low 90’s and he doesn’t know how to pitch there. He actually looks a lot like Freddy/Gil when they lost their velocity.

    Churchill has me convinced that J Jennings is a good fit. That’s actually where I think Reed’s headed. Are he and Felix fine at the top of the rotation? Can you then sign a 4? I still think we can sign Eaton cheap? Absent of that, look at Ramon Ortiz. Bavasi signed him in CA. He’s a guy with a great arm that hasn’t put it all together yet. Also, Hargrove gave Jason Johnson his real shot in Baltimore. Johnson has GREAT stuff. Mid 90’s fastball, a 12-6 curve, a slider at 83 and a nice changeup. His problem is he freaks out when runners get on base and his mechanics go to pot. Plus he’s a method pitcher. Strictly fastball first time around, than introduce a second pitch and repeat. He’s kinda easy to figure out. But if you can get him on a minor league deal, he’s got stuff..

    Any guesses on the contracts for the following guys:

    Huff
    T Nixon
    K Millar
    S Hillenbrand
    P Feliz

    Also is Kevin Mench available?

    And how long are we gonna stick with .115 hitting Rene Rivera anyway? Isn’t Alomar a journeyman at this point. Why can’t we get him here?

    I’ve heard we’re looking hard at Lilly. Don’t discount the relationship between Lilly and Hillenbrand. Also don’t forget that Hillenbrand is an underated RH hitter.

  51. Brett said

    Okori, I don’t usually do this, but for you, I’ll make an exception. You’re dumb man. 1B is an easily replaceable position and Beltre’s one of the top 5 at his position… LaHair, Ibanez, whoever can play 1B. That’s easy.

    Sorry to be so harsh. Being at work on Thanksgiving does that to ya. But seriously…learn how to evaluate players, then come back. Deal? Sweet.

    Happy Thanksgiving all.

  52. Edman said

    Brett….the dumb one is you. You may not like what Okori wrote, but at least he provided something analyical to his post. What did you do?……simply imply, and wrongingly so, that “1B is an easily replaceable position” It’s easily replacable, if you are replacing Scott Hatteberg, it’s not so easy to replace 40 HR/120 RBI potential, at ANY position.

    While I agree that Beltre has enough value to keep, I don’t dismiss his arguement. Would I want Hillenbrand there instead? No, but Beltre isn’t totally replaceable. I’d certainly not trade him, short of a blockbuster deal. But, I can see how others feel differently.

    Learn to evaluate players? And YOU have a more informed position than others? Just because you and regurgitate (sp?) the thoughts of some of this group’s self proclaimed “knowledge base”…..doesn’t mean it “right”….it’s an opinion. I’ve already been lectured by someone that I shouldn’t post countering opinions, because he believes this is a “scientifically” filtered group of “educated” fans. BS to that. We’re all “guessing”….nothing more. If it were all easy and predicable, it wouldn’t be much of a game, would it?

    And, to top it off, you instruct him to “learn” to evaluate players before he returns? And, just where did YOU acquire your baseball knowledge? You have a degree from Harvard on baseball management in the new century?

    I’m seeing a disturbing trend by some here to sterilize the group. They joyfully bask in their own self proclaimed brillance, then suggest that others don’t fit, and should move on. If someone is simply here to create mayheim, I have no problem with that. And, I do believe Jason does a good job of identifying those people, and doing what he has to.

    You don’t agree with someone, then rebuttal. You don’t need to attack. If you’re so insecure that the only way you can feel important, is to make someone else feel inferior, then you have the problem, not them.

    There’s room for everyone. The surest way to limit your education, it so remove those parts you won’t be opened minded enough to consider.

    Many posters don’t agree with me. I’m stating an opinion. I’m not hoping to change them, simply trying to point out there is more than one way to approach things.

    Okori, keep posting. I don’t agree with much of what you say, but at least it’s out there for debate.

  53. larryl said

    Happy Thanksgiving.

    I’m thankful that you turkeys keep me from taking this off-season too seriously.

    I just don’t get how anyone could seriously think the Mariners should replace Sexson with that list of has-been, never-will-be hack first basemen I’ve seen as suggested replacements. Hatterberg, Durazio?

    Hatterberg or Durazo are replacements for Broussard or Dobbs at best. If you trade Sexson, you still have to get a legit power bat in the middle of the order. Who is out there for less than Sexson? Or you have to get a legit starting pitcher and play without a power bat protecting Ibanez.

    Believe me, I’m not opposed to trading Sexson. I just think he is a much more valuable player than you are giving him credit for and suddenly his salary doesn’t seem like such a drain because we couldn’t replace his bat for much less.

    I also don’t think you can trade Soriano because without him you won’t get to Putz anyway. Short men have become too valuable to let him go. If we are not in contention by mid-June, and he’s throwing well, we can get a nice return then.

    Besides, I haven’t seen reason to feel confident Bavasi will make a trade that actually improves the team.

    So I say, put the money into two starting pitchers, trust Baek and Woods to battle out for the fifth spot, trade Broussard and Reed for prospects or middle relief depth, sign Hatterberg and someone like Keith Millar to share DH and pray that Hernandez becomes a dominant starter and Snelling finally stays healthy and becomes an impact hitter.

    If that doesn’t work, start planning for the Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, Brandon Morrow era because rebuilding is our only hope.

  54. Okori said

    Again, Beltre is what he is. Look at the career trend (see analysis Brett) and notate that – the contract year, Beltre is cold till approx June/July. Then he heats up considerably for a month or two. Some of said he can’t play in cold weather. I don’t neccessarily disagree with this. That explains why he can’t hit at all the first couple of months. So we don’t have a Cameron here (a guy that hates Safeco), we’ve got a guy who hates the rain. Another argument is that he can’t play in pressure. Notate that he’s a little like Beltran in that he has to hit in a non-pressure spot in the offense. This is where he exploded in LA (moved to 6th (oh no Brett analysis again)) and where he hit last year (2nd). We’ve gotta get out from underneath some of these deals. We simply need to much right now. I’ve calculated that to get what we need next year it’ll run between $23-$27 million dollars. That pushes our payroll past Lincoln’s confort zone.

    The problem? How bad is Beltre in today’s market? Rameriez (another streaky player) just signed for $12 mill. To replace Beltre offensively you’d have to sign a Trot Nixon (who won’t come here) and a Pedro Feliz. That’ll run $13 mill. Are we better off with those two? Not when you factor in Beltre’s defense.

    So I don’t know what I’d do. Keep in mind though that it’s been determined Beltre’s year last year isn’t sufficent for this organization, and that’s an average year for him.

    On Sexson, so everyone agrees. You can not trade him. You just can’t replace that production. And Brett, FYI-

    Lehair isn’t a huge power guy. The hitting coach in Tacoma is trying to teach him how to hit with power more consistancy. Right now, he’s not there yet.

    and

    Ibanez had a career year. It that hieracy to say here? He’s not a 30HR guy. I’d argue that he got that because he had protection behind him. He usually hits 5th and sees no pitching. Last year they moved him up in the order and he saw more pitches. Listen to Krueger though. To get Sexson on track, they’ve gotta get him more production. So there’s talk of moving Ibanez back to 5th. If they do that Sexson’s #’s go up and Ibanez moves back to his normal stats..

    I forget where I read this but guys with his #’s do not improve dramatically. They can burst for a year, but stats are indicative of who a player is. They don’t lie. That’s why you don’t give a guy $50 mill for 5 years after a career year. Oh wait!

  55. Okori said

    BTW-

    The pitching philosophy I’m proposing is very similar to the one the Jim Bowden holds to. You’ve gotta find value with SP. Instead of spending money on Zito/Schmidt, you’ve gotta find low risk/high reward type of guys. Only, I’m mitigating that with my undying love for the local guy. Look at Seattle history (excluding Cirillo who I don’t claim (hey he’s a transplant and he lives in freaking RENTON)). Sele, Olerud, Blowers, Wells.. We’ve had success bringing local guys here.

    I’d target Eaton because I’m a homer. Plus I heard he wanted to sign here last year. I think he comes at a discount. He also now knows the AL West.

    Other than that, who’s available on the cheap?

    Kei Igawa (if the value’s right)
    Ramon Ortiz
    Tony Armas Jr
    Tomo Ohka (if the value’s right)
    Jason Johnson (non-guaranteed deal)
    Sidney Ponson (Hargrove HATES this guy though)
    Russ Ortiz (non-guaranteed deal)

    also, and this is thinking outside the box, but look at Scott Schoenweiss. He got moved to the pen against his will. He wasn’t a bad starting pitcher. Didn’t he win 12-14 games at one point. He’d sign for $1.5 and you wouldn’t have a bad LH starter there. And who signed him originally??

    Notate this front office trend. They bring in either the local guy (Sexson) or guys they know (Beltre (Dan Evans was his GM and Bavasi was the scouting director there)). Of the guys I mentioned, they have ties to 4 of them, and Eaton fits the other bill.

    and Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

  56. Ben said

    Edman,
    An extrordinary post that reflects my sentiments alone. I come here to read the opinions of the (entire) board and not just those of the self-proclaimed experts.

  57. Jerry said

    I like the Russ Ortiz idea. He could be real cheap. But only on a 1-year deal with team options.

  58. Ortiz is worse than Baek, however, and his arm is trashed.

    And apparently, Adam Eaton’s agent has told the Mariners and the Padres that they get no hometown discount whatsoever.

    Eaton is from Snohomish, owns a home in San Diego and would prefer to pitch in one of those two spots… but the money has to be very competitive.

  59. Edman said

    Like Sexson, you can’t simply move him. Seattle has NOBODY to replace him. The idea of moving Lopez is crazy at this point in his career. He isn’t ready. He still hit 25 HR, after a miserable start of epic proportions. I don’t know anyone who’d have predicted the comeback he made.

    As for Bowden’s philosophy…..who cares? What has he done with that philosopy? IMHO, you need anchors in your rotation, and none of those guys is even close. Felix would do well to have a Jason Schmidt being the center of attention, rather than “King Felix”. And, I’d be perfectly happy to get a shot at Igawa, but would rather see Lilly in the rotation.

    I have no problem inviting a few low risk retreads to camp, I just don’t want to be given a slot.

  60. Okori said

    Look at the Cardinals this year. Their horse was?? Hmm.. Oh right, they didn’t have one (Mulder was out).. You can make a case that their are 7-8 horses out there. I think the concept of having a true anchor is becoming OBE.

    And again, Schmidt is done. His arm is shot. And Eaton?? I’m not sure what the dollar amount is their. I too have heard that Seattle is on a short list.. I’d throw San Fran on that list Church. They’re losing Schmidt. They’ve got Morris, Lowry, Cain and I think it’s Halsey, but they could use one more veteran arm. Bochy has also said that he’s looking to bring in some of his boys.

    MLB.com has said that Ramon Ortiz is gonna get 2.5 mill or less. At that price tag I sign him. Again, he’s a Bavasi guy, a former #1.. And he’s still got juice in that arm. He’s a legit 4.

    Who do I sign as a second? I’m not sure. If Eaton’s to much, I’d go Jennings, but I don’t think he’s a $10 mill guy and he’ll be in that slot in a year.

  61. Umm, Okori, Chris Carpenter was STL’s horse, and he’s a legit No. 1 who is a perennial CY Young candidate.

    I’m with ya on Schmidt, I think he’s an 8 mil pitcher in 07, and it gets worse after that… I wouldn’t sign him.

    SF hasn’t been too hot on Eaton, but they have shown a lot of interest in Wolf, Mulder, Lilly and Meche.

  62. JH said

    Seattle has nobody to replace Sexson…except a superior defensive LH bat who is 2 years younger and who hit 21hrs this year, who has a 2.5-year track record of OPSing in the .800-.850 range.

    150 bad at-bats from Broussard doesn’t negate his skill set or the roughly 1000 at-bats that say he’s a quality hitter.

  63. Edman said

    You wanna hitch your pony to the Broussard hitching post, be my guest. But please don’t expect me to get all excited about the prospect of him replacing Sexson. He’s a good added piece, but he in NO WAY has the shoulders to carry the same burden Richie can.

    Some of you need to pull your heads out of the countless pages of stats, especially those you use to justify a position…..and neglecting to consider others.

    Here’s the stat I cling to……Over 100 RBI a season, and typically close to 40 HR. Neither, of which I think Broussard is capable.

    I like Broussard, but as accent to the dish, not the main course.

  64. Trent said

    So, replacing Sexson’s bat would be tough because he hits 100 RBI? You do realize that RBI’s are essentially a team statistic, correct? Richie could hit as many home runs as he wanted too but as long as no one was on base, they would only count for one run. To get hung up on his “RBI capabilities” is silly. It’s not a stat that you can use as an accurate gauge for a hitter’s ability. I can guarantee that if you moved Beltre to the 4 hole and left him there all of last season his RBI totals would have been close to Sexson’s if not higher. And if you would’ve moved Sexson to the leadoff spot, he wouldn’t have gotten close to 100 RBI, if close to 80.

    Replacing 100 RBI’s to a team’s lineup is probably the easiest thing to do in baseball since there are so many ways to do it. For example:

    1) The addition of Snelling to the lineup instantly gives the entire team more RBI possibilities since it eliminates the black hole in CF last season.
    2) Platoon Broussard with a guy like Craig Wilson. One kills lefties, the other kills righties. Guaranteed to be more productive than Everett was last season.
    3) FA like JD Drew and Aubrey Huff still are on the market. While they are not perfect players, they’ll be able to come close, if not match, Sexson’s potential output the next two years.
    4) There are plenty of trade options as well.

    No one is saying Richie isn’t valuable or should be dumped for nothing (and those that are don’t have a clue). What people are saying is that the emotional fan homerism is shining through on Richie. For $14 million, the team could fill a couple of holes and get similar production. Focusing on his RBI’s isn’t a smart way to gauge his value. There are a lot of ways to determine the value of a player.

  65. OlyFan said

    Jennings is not a FA until 08. He makes almost 6 mill next year for Colorado. We’d have to trade for him.

  66. Jerry said

    I wouldn’t mind seeing the M’s move Broussard AND Sexson.

    Move Ibanez to 1B, bring in a good DH (Barry Bonds), and another OFer (how about Geoff Jenkins, who would cost nearly nothing to acquire if the M’s pick up his 1yr/7mil contract).

    Supposing the following contracts (Sexson 14 mil, Broussard 4 mil, Jenkins 7 mil and Bonds 12 mil) the M’s would be adding 1 million to the payroll while simultaneously improving the defense, improving the offense, and picking up some prospects (in trades for Sexson and Broussard).

    Who knows if that would actually work. But I don’t see why it wouldn’t. None of those moves would be difficult to pull off. At worst, the M’s might have to pay more for Bonds. No biggie.

  67. Edman said

    Fantasy land is a fun place, where deals happen just because they sound good. Join the real world.

    Guarantee Beltre’s production in the four hole? Fall in love with your precious stats, but you’re so far off the track, it isn’t funny. You apply MATH to everything. You fail to mention that Richie’s presence in the #4 hole, means pitching sequences change for those ahead of him…..just as his pitch sequences change, if there’s no threat behind him. F$^K math….I’m so sick of it I can’t stand it anymore. Some of you cling to it as an absolute, failing to realize it is an indicator, not a dictator.

    And, what a LAME arguement that moving Sexson to lead-off and he wouldn’t get his 100 RBI. Geez, how brilliant is that? Last I saw, NOBODY IN BASEBALL would even consider it. Yet, you bring that gem to the table? You move Ichiro to clean-up, he probably produces fewer runs. Hell, while we’re at it, we start Putz in CF, he probably won’t hit .200. Stay within the rhelm of reality if you’re gonna play the stats game. I hate twisting and arguement to absurd limits. Naturally, when you ask someone to do what they’re not expected to do, they’ll fail.

    Snelling makes everyone better? When did that happen? He hasn’t proven a thing, yet. I have faith he can, but he hasn’t done it, so until he does, it’s meaningless to talk in fact, when you’re dreaming. I love the guy, but I’m not about to make any bold claims I can’t believe in. I want him to do well, but he’s got to stay healthy and prove he can be productive…..and he’s done neither.

    Replacing 100 RBI is the easiest thing in baseball? Where the hell do you come up with this stuff? If it’s so freakin’ easy, why doesn’t everyone do it? Lame, lame, lame. It’s easy to make the statement, when you have NO PROOF to back it up…..only unsupported theory. I’ve been around baseball enough to KNOW 100 RBI isn’t easily replaced.

    BTW….it’s not a matter of REPLACING RBI, it’s a matter of adding to it, if this team wants to get better. In case you missed it, they didn’t consistantly score runs last year. So, to improve, they have to ADD RBI at some positions….not simply replace them.

    Sexson at $14 million is wasteful, yet paying Drew the nearly equivalent salary, is money better spent? Right.

    Craig Wilson?…..really? Remember a guy named Perez who also killed lefties, until he got to Safeco? I know, more stats, they don’t lie.

    Huff or Drew matching Sexson’s RBI the next two seasons? Another theory without merit. None of them carry the same power potential as Richie….not even close. Drew got 100 RBI on the button, last year…..his FIRST 100 RBI year. And still, even though your precious stats indicate that you’re blowing smoke out your…..you know what, when you make that claim…….you make it anyway.

    Richie can be replaced, but no easily. I have no problem replacing him, IF we get someone with equal potential to fill the position. So far, you’ve made claims that are wishful thinking, and not based in fact. Richie HAS constistantly driven in runs, and it could be argued that he could have driven in even more, with a better offense around him.

    Show me any stats to back up your claims. Can’t, because they don’t exist, unless you make them up…..by refining your search to only things that can’t be proved.

  68. Edman said

    And again, something I’ve asked before, that hasn’t been answered……..where is the proof that the money saved on Richie WOULD pay off with better results? I can’t, it’s just a different way to spend money….that has no guarantee of being spent any better.

    Anyone? Most of you have no faith in Bavasi to make a good deal, yet you’re more than happy to see him try and spend it wisely if he gets it? Talk about talking out both sides of your face.

    By many of your theories, you wouldn’t have money better spent, because Bavasi would screw it up.

  69. JH said

    I think it’s great that Edman’s the one who most often complains about other peoples’ nasty tone on this website.

    To pre-empt anyone seriously considering responding point-by-point to this guy, don’t bother.

    In short, you’re seriously overrating Richie Sexson, and SERIOUSLY overrating the importance of the RBI as a stat that tells you anything about a player’s value or his ability moving forward.

    Look ma, no math!

  70. Edman said

    I don’t complain about tone, I complain about name calling. I didn’t call anyone names, or imply that their gene pool had dried up, or told him not to post his opinions……and if you don’t see the difference, it’s not my problem.

    I don’t mind people being passionate, the game in itself is passionate.

    So, OPS is more important that RBI….really? If you hit 50 homeruns with nobody on base, it’s meaningless. If nobody is on base when you hit a double, it’s meaningless. In short, it’s possible to have great offensive lines, that are nearly meaningless to the bottom line.

    RBI ARE important, because last I saw, the game is based on the scoring of runs…..your OBP, or OPS, or AVG…….Runs, period. You can play the law of averages game, but it’s just that. Some guys are better at driving in runs when they’re available, than others. And, it’s more than the law of averages.

    If Sexson only had a couple 100 RBI seasons, you might have an arguement, but he’s done it consistantly, which none of the pretenders that have been presented as viable replacements, have.

    I’ll stick with results oriented stats, thanks.

  71. JH said

    RBI are random, Edman. A batter can’t control how frequently people get on base in front of him.

    Even if you’re super-obsessed with using RBI and refuse to abandon the notion that it’s valuable, Sexson tied for 28th in baseball in that supposedly all-important category. Of the 27 people who drove in more runs, 8 were full-time first basemen. Of those 8, only Giambi will make significantly more than Sexson in ’07-08, and only Pujols and Berkman have similar contracts.

    Call me crazy, but I don’t think it’s hard to do better than a declining 33-year-old who was the 9th best first baseman in baseball for $14million/year at driving in runs.

    Winning teams not named the Yankees or Red Sox choose which players to give elite money very, very carefully. Losing teams pay slightly above average players elite money. This should not be a hard concept to grasp.

  72. westfried said

    Personally, I think RBI are a terrible way to judge a hitter, because it’s highly dependent on opportunity. It’s like wins for pitchers.

    Minor thought about Sexson’s RBI – he hit 5 grand slams last year. That’s 20 out of 107 total RBI. Now, you can’t entirely discount those, but 87 non-gs RBI from your #4 hitter isn’t that impressive. That’s a run or so every other game.

    With Richie, you get a lot of all-or-nothing production. Which is great when he gets a hold of one, but doesn’t help on a day-in-day-out basis. How many 1-out, 2-on popups (sic) did he have? His job, as the number 4, is to get the runners home. He did that, in a big way, 5 times (usually after a Raul IBB). But there were many, many times he left us high and dry.

    I like Richie Sexson – he’s an ok player, and a seemingly-nice guy. But, as a 1st baseman, he is emminently replaceable, and at a far lower cost.

    I’d rather have Beroussard plus a top pitcher, if dumping Richie made that possible. The problem, of course, is Bavasi’s win-now mandate, along with the Mariners’ PR focus, and the *probability* that the Mariners would take a $28M albatross and turn it into a $50M+ albatross.

    Dealing/dumping Richie Sexson isn’t the problem. Doing it wisely is.

  73. Jerry said

    Edman,

    Seriously, you are arguing a point that is totally indefensible. Its a horrible, terrible line of reasoning.

    What we are trying to do here is PROJECT performance. RBI are the worst stat to use for that purpose.

    This is really well documented. You should try reading some of that stat-dork literature that you are so quick to bash. It makes sense if you give it a chance.

  74. Edman said

    I KNEW someone would bring up the greand slams, because it on the surface, looks reasonable. Last I saw, we don’t discount hitters, because the get Texas League singles. Yet, some NEED to justify their position, by finding any shread of a bad arguement, to make theirs sound plausable.

    And, since you brought it up, why not discuss just how much more productive Richie would have been, with Broussard/Perez behind him all season? Wait, that wouldn’t make your arguement work, would it? You see, anyone can twist and turn events in an effort to discount them.

    Sans his injury year, regardless of the team he’s been on, Sexson has provided more than 100 RBI the last six seasons. That isn’t a stat? That’s meaningless? It’s no less an indicator than the many other stats compliled.

    Fact is, it doesn’t matter if Sexson gets three-run homeruns whenever he hits one, or simply a solo shot. It ALL balances out. If anything, the fact that he has the ability to get his RBI when the opportunities are presented, help inforce his need to be in the line-up.

    Do I think Richie will continue to have the success he showed when put in bases loaded situation? Hell no, I’m a realist. But the extremely LAME attempt to discount his RBI in those situations shows just how desparately some clinge to their beliefs.

    Jerry, I tore apart stats for many, many years. And, I learned they provide a measure, but nothing more. Naturally, those who perform over a period of time, are lesser a risk. But, stats aren’t perfect. In fact, they often times can make some look better than they are, and others look worse.

    How do I know stats are imperfect? Because, they are like the holy grail of math geeks. Constantly in search of the ultimate stat, that can completely and accurately predict the future. It doesn’t exist, yet there is the constant search for the perfect formula.

    Jerry, you CAN’T project anything….you can take a guess. And yes, stats can help in that quest. But, like anything with this sport, you can’t calculate something so dictated by the most inconsistant variable of them all…….the human factor. You want to believe that people are machines who’s output can be calculated. It can’t, because enviroment, injury, age…..all have no way to measure their affects on an outcome.

    There is a reason scouts are still the most valuable way to evaluate minor league talent. Only observation can evaluate bat speed. Only observation can push the switch on a stopwatch, to see how fast a runner gets down the line. Only video tape can breakdown a swing, to determine where there are hidden holes, when a kid gets to the majors.

    Stats are important for thinning the herd, but not at determining who’s in it. I FULLY understand stats and their application. I FULLY understand that even the great Mr. James, isn’t always right.

    Totally indefensable, if you are talking to someone so sure that they can’t be wrong, or at the very least, won’t admit that there are no perfect measures. And, just for the record, Jerry……RBI over a long period of time, IS a valid stat. The difference between a Math Prof with a PhD, and Albert Einstein is one thing, the abiltiy to look beyond conventional thought, to the abstract. If the world were built by PhD’s, we’d be limited to only what they believed the results to be……and not what they could be.

    Jerry, it makes sense, but it isn’t the answer. There’s a lot more to the game than what you read on paper.

  75. Trent said

    I’m sorry Edman. I completely forgot that you are the most intelligent person in the Mariner blogsphere regarding everything. You are the man. Your attitude is super cool and you must have a ton of people lining up to have you tell them that the moon is actually made of cheese, because, it looks like cheese, therefore it is cheese.

    Rational arguments obviously mean jack shit to you, so let me dumb it down. Richie Sexson is a one dimensional player who without his power, is shit. Period. Get off you homeristic soap box and recognize that. Without his power, he’s worthless. He can’t field. He can’t run the bases.

    My argument about moving Sexson was very simple, yet you missed it completely. So let’s try it one more time. Sexson is a .260/.330/.500 hitter. He hits in the 4 hole because he has “power”. HYPOTHETICALLY, if you move his bat to leadoff or the two hole, he’s a .260/.330/.500 bat. Nothing spectacular. Just an below average to average contact hitter with some power. Again, I’m not suggesting it, I’m simply drawing a very simplistic argument.

    Now take Pujols. Move him to the leadoff spot. He’s a .330/.430/.670 hitter. Now move him to the 8th spot. Same result. No matter where you put him, he’s a terrific hitter. So, who’s the better hitter? Are they equal value because they can both knock in 100 RBI’s? Or do you throw out the fact that Pujols does everything better becasue he too hits 100 RBI therefore he’s similar to Sexson? They both will make practically the same salary next year, so that must mean they’re both equally valuable, right? Right? They’re interchangeable parts then, right? Now don’t twist what I just said to make it fit your flawed logic. Read it twice if you need to.

    Just for comparison sake, here’s Player A and Player B. Both are born the same day. Both play for mediocre teams. Whose more valuable (offense and defense taken into consideration)?

    Plater A – averaged one RBI per 6.5 AB
    Player B – averaged one RBI per 5.5 AB

    Player A – had an OPS of .815
    Player B – had an OPS of .842

    Player A – was ranked 14th at his position in PMR and is widely viewed as an above average defender (meaning positive contributions)
    Player B – was ranked 33rd at his position in PMR and is widely viewed as a below average defender (meaning negative contributions)

    So Player B is better offensively, but is a hack with the glove while Player A is similar but not as good with the bat yet is an asset on defense. Which player would you rather have? Both represent about equal value over the course of a full season. One makes $14 million. The other made about $1.7 million this year and is arby eligible. Player B is obviously Sexson. Player A is Emil Borwn. Would you pay Emil Brown $14 million per season since he essentially is of equal value to Sexson over the course of 162 games? What about $10 million? What about $8 million?

    And again, you missed on the rest of my post so I’ll keep it short. You said Richie is good for 100 RBI’s. I offered you four “options” that in theory would provide similar production to that of Sexson. So let’s start by subtracting Sexson’s 100 RBI’s. So that gives us -100. A full season of Snelling is worth more than what Everett contributed last year, so let’s tab that with +10 runs improvent over the course of the season (Everett was horrible but again, I’m shooting low). Moving Ichiro to CF eliminated a black hole in CF, essentially creating another +10 runs at least improvement, if not more but we’ll shoot low. So I’m at -80. Say we keep it in house and use Broussard and Craig Wilson (like I said earlier) as a platoon at 1B. We’ll aim low and say that those two produce just +70 runs next year (which there is no way they will). So now the M’s are -10 runs short with an opening at DH. You could fill that spot with LaHair if you wanted and get a bare minimum of +20 runs. So you’ve dealt Sexson, and are still on pace to score +10 runs. Not RBI’s. Runs.

    But you’ll probably come back with some snarky post because you believe in the intangibles. You will criticize numbers because you don’t understand them and therefore will throw insults and shallow barbs to try to embarass those who don’t agree with you. Get over it. Go read another blog if you don’t want to use statistics to reach value based judgments. There’s one in particular you’d probably enjoy amigo.

  76. Goose said

    Arguments like these are just hilarious.

  77. Edman said

    My brilliance? That’s horribly laughable. If anything, I accept that there are no sure things in regard to player evaluation….even my own. Yet, it’s YOU who insists they can’t be wrong. You resite line after line of numbers, as if they are infalable. And, should anyone venture outside your belief system, well, then they certainly are irrational and egotistical. Of course, you’re by far more humble and open to other opinions?

    There’s an Albert Pujois available to replace Sexson? Broussard? Drew? Huff? Again, another INSANE comparison. Most hitters are shyte, when you compare them to Albert. When you can stay on the map, let me know.

    As for Emil Brown…..if he CONSISTANTLY provided those numbers with over 500 AB’s for several seasons running, damn straight, I’d want him to replace Sexson. But, he’s certainly be sought by many other teams, now wouldn’t he. It always kills me when stats guys go on and on about production over time, then resort to using a small sample size comparison.

    Creative math, ya gotta love it. PROVE that a full season of Snelling WOULD provide more runs than Everett did. Speculating on a guy who’s not seen enough major league time to even come close to determining his impact. That’s the part that gets me. You’re more than willing to speculate, when it helps your cause…..but blinded by the thought that you could be wrong. You KNOW how Safeco would affect Craig Wilson? If you have a way to predict that, the M’s would pay you handsomely. Moving Ichiro produces +10 more runs? I’m confused. Enough of this…..

    OK, again, for your reading pleasure. Ten more freakin’ runs a year isn’t nearly enough to make a difference. How about this? We keep those 100 RBI, you reluctantly want to give Sexson…….and add 50 more, in right field. THAT is improvement…..not subtracting them, simply to use fuzzy math to try and make it seem valid.

    I’m all for trading Sexson, if we get ANOTHER run producer in return. If not, you’re putting yourself deeper in the hole. And for Christ sakes, forget the “savings” crap. When someone can convince me that their is NO CHANCE that the money saved on removing Sexson would be wasted on one more retread, I’ll sign up to his leaving.

    BTW…..LaHair is a good year away, unless he suddenly modifies his swing for the majors. I’m a big fan of his, but moving him up next year would be one huge rush. He’s not a well rounded hitter, yet.

  78. Jerry said

    Edman,

    Nothing you just said is even remotely close to a rational argument.

    You are pretty much on the same level as “Creation Scientists” and pseud0-researchers who deny global warming: you are replacing evidence and reason with rhetoric.

    You really didn’t address any of the valid points that various people brought up:

    1. RBI are not a good projection tool

    2. RBI are heavily dependent on factors outside of a players control

    3. Richie Sexson is overpaid

    4. Replacing Sexson’s production wouldn’t be that difficult

    Instead of actually addressing these arguments and making a cogent argument against them, you natter on about irrelevant issues. Here are some of your straw man points:

    1. Stats are not perfect

    2. Scouting is still useful for evaluating players

    3. Creative people are more intelligent than people with PhDs.

    None of those points have anything to do with the topic at hand. You are refuting arguments that nobody made, probably because you can’t really come up with a valid argument concerning the real issues here: Sexson’s contract and the value of RBI as an indicator of future performance.

    Really, there are literally tens or even hundreds of thousands of pages of sabermetric analyses that refute what you are saying. You claim to know these data, and to have “torn them apart”, but you clearly don’t know what you are talking about.

    That is why you are easily dismissed, just like people who deny evolution or global warming. If you are going to deny a huge body of literature and the general consensus in a given field, you have to bring more to the table than cliches and straw man arguments. You haven’t done that. That is why nobody takes you seriously here.

  79. Nighthawk180 said

    Im not really going to get involved in this discussion too much but the runs arguement dosent work at all.

    The mariners scored a grand total of 816 runs last year (stats from their website). Out of those 816 runs Sexson scored 75 thats good for fifth on the team. To go along with the runs he scored despite his .264 BA he also drove in 107RBI’s. The only other player on the mariners to do so was Ibanez and he drove in 137RBI’s. The runner up was Beltre and he had 89RBI’s.

    Now RBI’s are not a valid point in which to start from in referring to a players contribution to a team but they should be taken into consideration when they have been displayed over a strech of time.

    Now getting back to the whole arguement of runs thing. Take sexson out of the lineup and you just took out one of the 100RBI guys along with the fifth most run scored player on your lineup. He possibly is the most feared guy in the lineup also. Sure he strikes out or hits a homerun but take Buhner as an example here. Where would the mariners been without his bat in the lineup in 95. The guy hit like 50 HR that year and kept us in contention. Ok probably a bad example the mariners were a contending team then but with Sexson out of the lineup you cant compare stats from the previous year to get predictions. It doesnt work. Without him you just lost 75 runs and the runs he drove in himself which were 107. That lineup is without that feared hitter and production. Now out of those people you mentioned who would be feared out of those guys?

    Now yes those stats can be duplicated by numerous of other people. Ofcourse you’d be an idiot to think otherwise but at the same time I believe in the “it aint broke, dont fix it” approach and their is nothing wronge with sexson in this lineup. He only makes us better in the boxscore. Yes I do think for what he is he is way overpaid. Tell me what out there would be worth spending the money on that would make us a better club at the present. Taking away one of the two MOTO bats we have(Ibanez, Sexson) would only weaken this team further unless we get someone with just as much production as he can/has produced in the past. That would be kind of redundant if you were the trading team. Tit for tat trades whats the point really.

    I am all for trading sexson if it is worth while for the team but to get rid of him simply for the fact that he makes to much money is kind of stupid. That seems to be the only reason I have heard that has been mentioned on almost everyones posts. The mariners have his budget in the current payroll therefore there is nothing wronge with him in the lineup. I think to make the team better we need to build around him and see what we have to deal with. I do believe however that Sexson will not finish out his contract as a mariner but I hope that his leaving will make this team better.

    Feel free to pick apart this post. Im sure there is a lot of holes but I have said my piece so have fun and keep it going, its pretty funny.

  80. Trent said

    You misinterpreted practically everything I said and absolutely refuse to listen to anything that utilizes statistics. I can’t believe I even wasted my time.

  81. Nighthawk180 said

    I dont understand what you just said and I rufuse to listen to statistics? Wow dude Wow. If you look again I stated that Sexson provided almost a quarter (1/4 nearly 200 runs+RBI) of the total runs for this team last year himself. Taking him out and then predicting the same production from an adition of one player that only hits rightys make for a strong arguement.

  82. Nighthawk180 said

    Like you said the opening of DH would only help us in the runs department anyways.

  83. Malcolm said

    take Buhner as an example here. Where would the mariners been without his bat in the lineup in 95. The guy hit like 50 HR that year and kept us in contention.

    He hit 40. It took me 2 seconds to look up. If you want to be taken seriously in the future, I would suggest you invest those seconds into getting your facts straight.

    But seriously people, why are you even bothering to try and argue with Edman? There has to be better ways to spend your time, like self-flagellation.

  84. Nighthawk180 said

    The guy hit like 50 HR that year and kept us in contention. Ok probably a bad example the mariners were a contending team

    Bro didnt you read the rest of it? Especially a bad example part? Dont go and try to nit pick every little thing man. Was that really necessary?

  85. Malcolm said

    I stated that Sexson provided almost a quarter (1/4 nearly 200 runs+RBI) of the total runs for this team last year himself.

    No and no. First of all, he provided 22.3% of the the Ms runs if you want to use your 6th grade method.

    Clearly you forgot that when he hits a HR he gets credit with both a run scored and an RBI, however, the Ms don’t get 2 runs out of that. You have to subtract 34 from that number, leaving Sexson with a contribution of 18.1% of the team’s runs or roughly 1/5.5.

  86. Malcolm said

    Bro didnt you read the rest of it? Especially a bad example part? Dont go and try to nit pick every little thing man. Was that really necessary?

    No, because if you aren’t willing to invest a few seconds into fact checking that I have to assume you invested similar non-time into the rest of your opinion. I have better ways to spend my time.

  87. Nighthawk180 said

    Instead of correcting a stupid mistake that doesent really matter anyway why not try and argue some of my other points.

  88. Trent said

    Nighthawk, I agree with most of the points in your post. I don’t think that Sexson needs to be dumped just for the sake of dumping him. However, I also don’t think that he should be the highest paid player on the Mariners and with some teams in desperate search for a RH bat with some power, I think the M’s would be stupid to not consider dealing him.

    The team is several pieces away from getting anywhere close to competitive baseball. They have three openings in their rotation and one of the spots is Washburn. If moving Sexson fills one of the roster spots how could that be bad? With $14 million in payroll space, there’s plenty of ways to replace those runs.

    Yes Sexson collects RBI’s. But team runs are much more important as in order to collect RBI’s, there has to be players actually on base to collect RBI’s. Losing Sexson would take away a bat with power but there are other ways to replace those team runs.

    Bottom line, the team is likely better off moving foward by dealing Sexson and getting some young talent back. Do I think they have the ability to do so, no. Do I think that Sexson is a $14 million player, no. Am I going to be upset if Sexson’s at 1B in 2007 and 2008, no. I just think the M’s are in a position to exploit the market and need to do so.

  89. Trent said

    #81 – my comment was to edman

  90. Nighthawk180 said

    OH MY GOD DUDE! Do realize what you just did? You just stated something that I already did. I said ALMOST a quarter of the runs dude. If you want to get technical almost a fifth then. this is getting stupid wow. Whats so wronge about a player that scored a combined 183 runs/RBI’s anyway. He is being paid for anyway.

  91. Nighthawk180 said

    I agree with you fully trent. That is a good way of thinking about it. I am definitly not against trading him at all. If we were able to get a PROVEN starting rotation pitcher Im all for it.

  92. Nighthawk180 said

    No, because if you aren’t willing to invest a few seconds into fact checking that I have to assume you invested similar non-time into the rest of your opinion. I have better ways to spend my time.

    I think you might want to get some sleep or something dude. I dont know what is your problem at the moment I didnt mean to piss you off or anything I wasnt sure if it was 40 or 50 but like I stated right after it, it wasnt a good example. The thread is only 90 or so post long Im sorry if I didnt think about what I was writing. Im also sorry for wasting your time. Im sure you have better things to do. Better get to them huh?

  93. Jerry said

    Can we all stop and take a deep breath…..

    …OK, I would like to dispell a few myths that several people here seem to not understand.

    #1. Nobody is suggesting that we simply subtract Sexson from the payroll and roster and call it a good offseason.

    #2. Nobody is saying that Sexson is a useless player.

    #3. Nobody is suggesting that the M’s just give him away for nothing.

    OK. Does that make sense? Since nobody made those arguments, can we stop refuting them?

    Now, I don’t want to speak for everyone in the trade Sexson crowd here. But these seem to be the basic ideas here.

    #1. If the M’s trade Sexson, they will get some prospects in return.

    #2. If the M’s move Sexson, they can reallocate his salary in a more efficient way.

    #3. RBI and Runs are not useful stats to use to build a roster.

    #4. There are lots of ways to replace Sexson in the lineup and IMPROVE the club offensively and defensively.

    Here is an example:

    Now, the M’s could trade Sexson for a some good prospects, and perhaps even a pitcher who could fill in the #3 or #4 spot in the rotation. Guys who have been mentioned include Hayden Penn from Baltimore or Jonothan Sanchez from SF. Both are ML ready right now, and would allow the M’s to avoid getting entangled in the current free agent market for mediocre starters (eg Adam Eaton for 4/36).

    Lots of research has shown that the best way to evaluate a hitters offensive contribution is OBP and SLG. Those two stats are excellent for PREDICTING offensive performance, and directly correlate with run production. OBP is particularly important. If you are interested in runs, getting on base is the best thing a player can do to score. The rest is up to his teammates.

    So really, if we want to replace Sexson, we should be looking at OBP and SLG.

    The market for Barry Bonds is pretty thin right now. He could likely be signed for 1 yr/$12 million.

    Lets compare these two players:

    Sexson: .338 OBP, .504 SLG, .842 OPS
    Bonds : .454 OBP, .545 SLG, .999 OPS

    Its pretty clear who is the better player. Not only would the M’s be replacing that production, they would be getting a very substantial offensive upgrade.

    Bonds is also lefthanded, and would have a field day playing half his games at Safeco and being able to DH every day. The only downside here is age and PR.

    Additionally, just by making that one change, the M’s would save $2 million in 2007, have a lot more roster flexibility in 2008, and would get some nice prospects in return. Making this change wouldn’t even cost them a draft pick.

    Explain to me how this isn’t a good move.

  94. Edman said

    I don’t care if they trade Sexson or not, but NOT FOR F’ING PROSPECTS. I want either a proven hitter or pitcher, or a can’t miss prospect, nothing less. If that’s the kind of deal people are talking about, great.

    But, I’ve seen some suggesting “B” level prospects would be good enough. That’s not enough to remove that much offense from a line-up that’s already struggling. BS to that.

    The money thing is becoming a non-issue, anymore, since the size of current contracts have gone to the stupid farm. It now cost more to add pieces, ANY pieces. So, any “savings” you make on dumping Richie’s contract, get absorbed in some other contract that’s even worse, in terms of actual value.

    And, not one single person has given me ANY hope that the saving on Sexson’s absence of payroll WOULD be better spent. So, why clear up salary, when you’re not even sure it will buy enough?

    To me, it’s the old “grass is always greener” theory. When we didn’t have Richie, the SAME people whinning about getting rid of him, insisted that the M’s would have failed, if they DIDN’T get Richie when they signed him. Yes, some argued for Delgado….but the need was the same.

    Richie got the going rate at that time. You don’t like it, then give up on the sport all together, because nearly EVERY good player is paid way more than they are worth. It sucks, but as long as idiots keep giving guys like Pierre, Matthews, etc. stupid contracts, then the even better players are worth that much more.

    It sucks, but it’s reality. We don’t get a choice in how much players make.

    No more prospects……I’m sick of sending something of value away, and getting “hope” in return. Richie’s too valuable to accept “B” level prospects. We have our own. Somebody doesn’t want to cough up a prospect with legitimate expectation of being a solid major league player……then just say no.

  95. Edman, it’s a GOOD move to deal Sexson for prospects. It’s as close to FACT as it gets.

    28 million over two years for a guy that’s worth 10 whole runs (hitting, fielding, baserunning) to your club isn’t efficient at all.

    That’s just the way it is, and I’m sorry you don’t see that, but the M’s aren’t going to get some proven bat in return, it’s a redundant move for one team or the other – or both.

  96. Edman said

    Well, it all is mute, anyway. I can’t see Sexson going anywhere. It would be a tough sell for the PR department to trade Sexson for prospects, simply to get cash relief. That would mean that the Bavasi would publically have to admit failure, along with the M’s organization appearing to claim “poor”…..that’s just not gonna happen. Maybe the could have spun that in with a signing of DM. However, the fanbase in Seattle won’t accept trading one of a hometown hero, just to save money. Face is involved, like it or not.

    You cyber GM’s can dream away and play “in a perfect world”….but rational or not, it’s not going to happen just because you think it’s a good idea.

  97. Malcolm said

    I don’t recall any riots in August after the Ms traded Jamie Moyer for B level prospects.

  98. None of what you said is true, Edman. None of it.

    The club would just come out and say that they felt it was necessary for the Sexson trade so they can address the weaknesses of the rest of the club over the next two years.

    And WHO exactly is going to be up in arms about the club trading a local guy? Nobody seems to care that he’s FROM the area… fans just want good players.

    There wouldn’t be any backlash at all. The Fanbase doesn’t see Sexson as a hometown hero. They just don’t. I know dozens of season ticketholders and talk to fans every day of the year and not one of them has spoken of Sexson that way – EVER. Nobody on the message boards or forums are saying that they dont want to deal Sexson because he’s a hometown guy… none of them.

    Not even you.

    And Edman, stop acting like you actually have a clue about what the Mariners would or wouldn’t do. If they were truly never going to deal Sexson because it’s a PR disaster, then why would they have more than one conversation about trading him? Why wouldn’t they tell each and every club that he just isn’t available.

    Fact is, they have told more than one club that he’s available if the return makes sense for the Mariners and that proven everyday big-league players don’t necessarily have to be in the package.

  99. Edgar said

    Another way to think about why we can’t ask too much in return for Sexson:

    Anybody can go out and sign a FA for a lot of cash. Therefore, there isn’t that much of a market for a guy who is making a lot of money. The Astros can’t just take Carlos Lee and trade him to the Giants and expect anything in return. Lee just isn’t worth anything with his contract. Its like saying that we are bidding on a car and I win the car over you for $1000 (aka signing Sexson) because you didn’t want to pay as much as me. It wouldn’t make any sense at all for me to call you up a week later and ask if you want to buy the car for $1100 (aka taking his contract and giving us a good prospect). The only way we are going to get anything decent in return for him is to take on most of the $$ he’s owed and thats just going to defeat the purpose of trading him.

  100. Edman said

    Same sources that had Reed traded a few days ago?

  101. Trent said

    For someone with so much disdain for the service JC and the rest of the Mariner blogs with a brain provide, you sure spend ample time here. Maybe it’s time to start getting your Mariner news elsewhere.

  102. Edman said

    Well, there ya go, Trent. Just who is it that keeps suggesting that anyone with an opinion other than that of the collective self appointed guardians of the only correct way of thinking, should leave? I’ve never suggested anyone leave or stifle their opinions……I leave that to narrow minded people like you, who can only accept what they believe as right, leaving any other opinion, wrong.

    Jason only knows what he’s told. And, he’s told only what they want him to know. Do the math.

    I NEVER have had disdain for the service. Because I don’t follow along with the pack of the self appointed gaurdians of the collective thinking here, doesn’t mean I don’t find the site interesting and useful. I have a lot of respect for Jason. But, I also know he is like most people, and lets his emotion and beliefs affect what he says. It’s human, we all do it. Hell, a couple of weeks ago, he suggested giving up and folding the tent. I know Jason better than that, and know he was merely depressed by what he’d sees this year. It’s not the best offseason to be a buyer.

    You want a sterile forum, where only those who think like you can sit and pat each other on their backs proclaiming how right their opinions are, be my guest. If Jason feels that’s an important element, then he can easily remove anyone who fails to fall to their knees and accept only one way of thinking.

    Fortunately, I’m glad you, or a few other like you, don’t get to make the decision about what’s acceptable to be discussed. I have faith that while Jason doesn’t agree with me, he’s also smart enough to know that growth comes from debate……not from isolate.

  103. Trent said

    You’re not debating anymore, you’ve regressed to throwing out cheap low blows to help make your point. I mean seriously, was this comment even called for:

    “Same sources that had Reed traded a few days ago? ”

    No. It’s you trying to get a jab in because you felt that the debate/discussion/argument wasn’t going your way. You habitually insult and critique everyone’s opinion who questions yours and you make under handed comments like the one above to try to weaken/minimalize/marginalize what JC talks about on HIS site.

    I’m not telling you what you can or cannot do. I just don’t understand how someone can be so hyper-sensitive and unwilling to accept another POV on a diverse subject such as baseball and can proceed to insult the author of a blog, which happens to be based on the exact opposite of what you believe.

  104. William said

    Hey Trent, funny that you seem to gloss over your own, (and others) jabs taken at any viewpoint not condoned by the author. Especially when all of you lemmings seem to take your snark que from the author himself.

  105. Goose said

    As the human torch once said:

    FLAME ON!

  106. Edman said

    Ummmm, Trent…..Just how did my pointing out that his “sources” all but had Reed traded within a matter of hours? Jason went out of his way to point out I was clueless, while he “factually” knows exactly what the M’s have done. I can’t question his sources?

    I, for one, didn’t fall into the trap of “Reed is traded”…..I’ve seen that pony many times before, and seen the exact same result. I’ve learned with rumors, not to invest too deeply, until it becomes fact. I’m not saying Reed won’t be traded, or that is won’t be exactly as expected. I’m saying that Seattle would probably like to move him, but it takes the right exchange of players from both teams. Sometimes, it takes a lot of time to get to where the deal can be made.

    And, I like the fact that Jason shares what he knows, even if it doesn’t go down. It gives us something to debate. It keeps the interest up. I’d rather he do that, than withold the information.

    If this were the first case of sources not getting it right, it would be no big deal.

    Jason is right, the M’s are only going to make a deal that makes sense. What ends up being speculated is not what the M’s feel is acceptable, but rather what those in the know here feel is acceptable……and that is most likely not the same thing.

  107. Guys, and especially Edman, since YOU ARE THE ONE THAT MADE THIS PERSONAL, and let me tell you, you’re barking up the wrong tree here, pal…. ALL OF YOU STOP THE SHIT.

    Discuss, agree, disagree, whatever, but remember we’re all here for one thing and that’s to get Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong canned, not to fight amongst ourselves.

    Edman, think what you want, you will anyways, but if you think that I’m only told what the Mariners want me to know, you haven’t a friggin’ clue.

    90% of what I get on the Mariners, whether it be trades, free agency, prospects, everything… comes from people not in any way affiliated with the Seattle Mariners. I almost ALWAYS get the other clubs’ POV, or the agents, or even the players’.

    So… so much for your theory, eh?

    In general, and this goes for everyone… I’m the only one allowed to get personal here, and that’s a joke so stop your pissyness before it starts.

    This isn’t a place for fighting amongst baseball fans.

    Disagreements, yes. Let’s get back to that stature.

  108. Walrus said

    Ok, how about another player comp…
    Both Players born in 1974, both have had 7 healthy years (where they played over 130 games), both have been All-stars, and both have played both OF and 1st base…
    In their 7 healthy years, their resapective totals are:
    Player A – .352 OBP, .522 SLG, .267 AVG, 466 Extra base hits, 776 RBI, 1064 K, no Gold Gloves
    Player B – .352 OBP, .428 SLG, .292 AVG, 401 Extra base hits, 608 RBI, 709 K, 2 Gold Gloves (1 for OF, and 1 for 1B)

    Guaranteed that Player B gets less than $4M this year, and could easily be signed for one year plus OPTION year for under $7M.
    We all know player A is Richie.
    Further, I do not suggest we sign player B…who is Darrin Erstad, although I know Billy B. is thinking about it.
    But I have 2 points….
    First, Erstad was probably worth about the same as Richie back in 2005 – probably worth even more, and look how far he fell off last year.
    Second, if you really wanted to find some FA who has done it in the past, performs better than Richie at base running, fielding, is left handed, and etc.. there are players out there.
    I totally agree with Jerry, Trent and Edman that I would not trade Richie for 2 “B” level prospects like Dave or Derek from a different website would do…BUT I would ACTIVELY be TRYING to TRADE Richie NOW. Trade when his value is high…not like Redd’s value is now.

  109. Edman said

    I don’t think many would have a problem getting rid of Sexson, if the value returned was ample enough. Seattle is not in a position where they can turn a deaf ear to any trade possibility….even Ichiro. But, if someone isn’t gonna help you get better, right away, then it makes no sense. I don’t mind trading a Villone, Myers, Hansen, etc. They’re bit pieces. But, pulling a major part of your offense out, only to get back prospects, makes no sense. The basic position is that Seattle doesn’t have to trade Richie. And, if some team isn’t willing to at least trade equal value, then you don’t deal. All the organization does is look like an expensive version of the Royals, Brewers, etc…..especially if they trade him, then find out they’re going to get shutout on the FA market. Seems to me, you’re then forced to make a bad FA deal, to justify moving Richie.

  110. Jerry said

    It seems like a lot of the disagreement here stems from the definition of a “B” prospect.

    The only person that I know who systematically uses an A-C ranking system is John Sickels.

    In his implementation of that system, a “B” prospect is a damn good player.

    Here is his definition:
    “Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into start, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.”

    That’s pretty good.

    For example, here is how he ranked the M’s prospects as of last offseason (his new book isn’t out yet):

    Jeff Clement A-
    Adam Jones B+
    Asdrubal Cabrera B
    Bobby Livingston B-
    Wladimir Balentien C+
    Yorman Bazardo C+
    Sabastian Boucher C+
    Shin-Soo Choo C+
    Ryan Feierabend C+
    Edgar Guaramato C+
    Craig James C+
    Oswaldo Navarro C+
    Thomas Oldham C+
    Chris Snelling C+
    Matt Tuiasosopo C+
    Luis Valbuena C+
    Michael Wilson C+
    16 players at C

    So, from that POV, a “B” prospect is pretty damn good.

    A good B prospect would be one of the better players in our system.

    At the risk of speculating, I would guess that Sickels will give Brandon Morrow a B grade.

    If the M’s could get two guys who fit that designation, that is great. Do it.

  111. The Mariners do NOT have to replace Richie’s production THIS WINTER to justify trading him away. They do, however, have to take the money saved and the players they get in return, and do something very positive with it… it doesn’t have to be a bat.

    For the team to become contenders, sure, they need a bat, and if they deal Richie, they need TWO.

  112. Edman said

    Perhaps you should review your statement, then think about how likely Bavasi is to be fired, if he doesn’t attempt to have a contender this season.

    Just how likely would you be, if you had basically a “make or break” season coming, to be willing to tell your bosses that it’s going to be one more year of futility, so lets pack it in this season?

    It’s not likely that Bavasi will take one for the team, and trade Sexson, without the realization he has to make moves to contend this season. He’s making moves to attempt to save his career in Seattle.

    Unless you know something we don’t know, that indicates that Bavasi’s job is safe, no matter how they finish…..I think you’ve said it all. Meaning, he can’t simply trade Sexson, without fully accepting the risks of losing his job, if he doesn’t contend.

  113. Jerry said

    Bavasi’s legacy is a double edged sword.

    The team has to improve for him to keep his job.

    On the other hand, bringing in another Washburn or, worse, a Mo Vaughn, would make it really difficult for Bavasi to get another position later on. Those types of moves are the ones that people across baseball remember as a blemish on a person’s record.

    For a GM, making a dumb decision and putting the club in the hole for a few years could be worse than holding out in a really idiotic market.

    I guess it largely depends on whether Bavasi is more concerned about the short term (keeping his current job) or the long term (maintaining a good name in the business).

    Hopefully, Bavasi can make some good trades, find a few hidden gems in free agency, and still maintain some roster flexibility while improving the club.

    He definitely has his work cut out for him.

  114. What Bavasi WILL do and what is necessary for a Sexson trade to be a GOOD thing for the club are two very different things. That is why you seem to not understand, Edman.
    I have been saying all along that Bavasi is going to have to do things that even he may not prefer to do, because if he doesnt win, he’s out of a gig.
    But that doesn’t mean signing Schmidt to a 5-year deal for 14 mil per is a GOOD thing for the Mariners, even though it makes them better, at least to some extent, in 2007.
    Same goes for Richie. Trading him scrapes 28 mil off the books, 14 in each of the next two seasons, although it doesn’t necessarily make them a better team on the field in 2007… though it shouldn’t be extremely difficult to do so.
    Go look up the runs created numbers for Richie in all three facets before disputing that. Sexson’s RC/G totals for 06 were right at 6 while in 05 they ended the year at 8. That’s a combined total of about 7.

    Mike Jacobs, for example, was worth 5.6 per in 2006, and is still in his ascending years as a developing young player, while Richie is certainly headed in the other direction and for 13.5 million more per year.

    There’s more to baseball than home runs and RBI.

  115. Edman said

    Just as there is more to baseball than OBP and OPS.

  116. OPS and OBP are true indicators of a good offensive baseball player. Runs scored and RBI are not. Home runs aren’t even as important.
    It’s more effective to have a .400 OBP hitter with a .900 OPS that hit 45 doubled and just 20 homers than it is to have a guy that smacked 45 bombs but only got on base 35% of the time.
    Baseball, offensively, is about scoring runs, but the most effective way to do that is to avoid making outs.

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