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Mock Draft v1.0

Posted by Jason A. Churchill on May 22, 2006

The first of 10 mock drafts wasn't nearly as easy as a year ago. Partly because the talent is half as deep, if that, and the clubs drafting near the top of the first round aren't large market clubs willing to hand out major league deals.

With so many questionable prospects, many teams will end up drafting for need than in any of the recent drafts, and it'll start as high as the first overall choice, where the Kansas City Royals have shown no willingness to hand a large bonus to Andrew Miller, the consensus top talent.

Until next Monday, here's the latest. But remember, this is not only likely to change, but it's probably changed since I started to write the HTML markup for this.

2006 First Round Mock 1.0
NO. Team Player Pos. Ht/Wt School
1 Kansas City Andrew Miller LHP 6-6/210 North Carolina
2 Colorado Evan Longoria 3B 6-2/190 Long Beach St.
3 Tampa Bay Brad Lincoln RHP 6-3/210 California
4 Pittsburgh Kyle Drabek RHP 6-0/190 The Woodlands
5 Seattle Luke Hochevar
RHP 6-5/210 Tennessee
6 Detroit Brandon Morrow RHP 6-3/210 California
7 LA Dodgers Tim Lincecum RHP 5-11/170 Washington
8 Cincinnati Clayton Kershaw LHP 6-3/210 Highland Park
9 Baltimore Max Scherzer RHP 6-2/205 Missouri
10 San Francisco Drew Stubbs OF 6-4/200 Texas
11 Arizona Jeremy Jeffress RHP 6-1/180 Halifax County
12 Texas
Daniel Bard RHP 6-4/210 North Carolina
13 ChiCubs Matt Antonelli 3B 6-0/205 Wake Forest
14 Toronto Travis Snider OF 6-0/230 Jackson
15 Washington Joba Chamberlain RHP 6-3/225 Nebraska
16 Milwaukee Bill Rowell SS 6-3/200 Bishop Prep
17 San Diego Matt LaPorta 1B 6-1/215 Florida
18 Philadelphia Wes Hodges 3B 6-1/210 Georgia Tech
19 Florida Brett Anderson LHP 6-4/215 Stillwater
20 Minnesota Chris Tillman RHP 6-4/190 Fountain Valley
21 NY Yankees Ian Kennedy RHP 6-1/195 USC
22 Washington Hank Conger C 6-0/210 Huntington
23 Houston Brett Sinkbeil RHP 6-3/190 Missouri St.
24 Atlanta Jordan Walden RHP 6-4/200 Mansfield
25 LA Angels Chris Parmelee 1B 6-1/205 Chino Hills
26 LA Dodgers Kasey Kiker LHP 5-11/185 Russell County
27 Boston Chris Marrero 3B 6-3/200 Monsignor Pace
28 Boston Dellin Betances RHP 6-9/215 Grand Street
29 ChiSox Max Sapp C 6-2/210 Bishop Moore
30 St. Louis Justin Masterson RHP 6-6/240 San Diego St.

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24 Responses to “Mock Draft v1.0”

  1. 1996Coug said

    Hochevar, huh? He’s been pitching in the Indy Leagues. How’s he looked, Jason?

  2. Apparently very good. 92-97, good command.

    I think it’ll come down to three guys. Morrow, Lincecum and Hochevar. If Hochevar signs with LA — longshot, but possible — it’ll be the two Pac 10 guys in which they have seen a lot of both.

  3. 1996Coug said

    And then it’s flip a coin? These owners are pretty predictable about leveraging the local angle. Can they pass on Linecum if he’s there? Or resist for the better rated prospect?

  4. I think if they take Hochevar or Morrow it’ll be because someone convinced the entire front office that his size and mechanics make him a big time risk.

    Otherwise, they’d take him if he was there.

    If Colorado takes Lincoln at No. 2, Tampa will probably take Lincecum.

  5. Scruffy Lefty said

    Just curious

    What round would Jake Locker had gone in if he choose to play baseball instead of football?

  6. Jason –
    What about Greg Reynolds? Supplemental first?
    Also – are you going to watch Jackson High play at Safeco on Friday?

  7. Locker — probably 3rd to 6th round range for Locker.

    Reynolds is a late first to mid second rounder, probably.

    He could go to Boston in one of their multiple picks or in the supplemental range, too.

    Re: Snider

    I may be covering that state tourney game for the local paper, so maybe.

  8. germpod said

    Who do you think has a higher ceiling and better mechanics, Hochever or Morrow?

  9. Hochevar by a hair and Hochevar easily. Only because Morrow has had command issues.

  10. Morrow has the better fastball at 93-99 while Hochevar (pronounced Ho-chi-var, soft ‘ch’ sound, like Churchill) typically sits 90-95. Hochevar uses a sinker a lot in the 88-91 range.

  11. 2quarters said

    Hochevar a #1-2 type?

  12. 2-3.

    Lincecum has No. 1 stuff, and Miller may end up with No. 1 stuff in the end. Lincoln, Morrow, Hochevar, etc, are all 2-3 types, based on stuff.

    Command, risk and signability make up the draft order.

  13. And just an hour after this went up, Greg Reynolds’ latest stock rose 20 spots.

    See what I mean?

    He and Huff from UCLA were guys ranked 22-40 last week. This week they are both 1st rounder and Reynolds, on the strength of his two wins over Brandon Morrow and Tim Lincecum, could be a top 15 pick.

    He’s very projectable and is actually on the M’s radar.

  14. MatthewCarruth said

    Is there a train of thought that supports taking Reynolds 5th? That seems like a big reach.

    Any thoughts on the who/what the Ms could be looking for at 49th?

  15. It’s a reach for Reynolds at five, but there is going to be a lot of teams drafting the player they had a pre-draft contract agreement with.

    I don’t think the M’s do that, because Lincecum and Hochevar are both signable and so are any of the other 4 guys they like.

    At 49? They’ll take the best player available, regardless of position – college or prep.

    I’m hoping one of the prep stars fall… Kasey Kiker, Chris Marrero, Brett Anderson…

  16. MatthewCarruth said

    Marrero would be a dream.

  17. germpod said

    Any thoughts on Ian Kennedy? Would you be upset if they took him with their second pick hoping he can regain what he had his sophomore season?

    I am happy that we have a team that you do not have to worry about passing up the best player available for a cheaper player, Tui is a good example.

  18. Kennedy is going to be a steal in round 2 for someone – unless one of the multi-picks clubs snags him late in the first or with a supplemental choice.

    I'd like him at 49.

    Re: Cheap/Best player

    But if the player appears to be a really tough sign or potentially unsignable, you have to reassess.

  19. Scruffy said

    Hey Jason I was also wondering what round do you see Zach Clem from UW going in?

  20. StandinPat said

    How does Longoria’s bat project at 3rd? If the M’s can find a taker for Beltre later this year or in the offseason does he seem like a long term replacement?

  21. germpod said

    Sounds like most projections hve the M’s taking Greg Reynolds or Luke Hochevar, just reading scouting reports it sounds like Hochever is more likely to be the better pitcher then Reynolds. Any oppinions?

  22. I don’t know what Clem’s draft status is, really. He’s not a high pick so I haven’t asked.

    If the M’s take Reynolds at five it’s a mistake because one of the big five are going to be there and none of them are signability problems.

    Miller, Lincoln, Lincecum, Hochevar and Morrow… one will be there.

  23. Bilbo said

    actually two and maybe three of those will be there (if Longoria and Drabek go 2-4 as anticipated). I think the M’s will have their choice between Lincecum, Hochevar and Morrow by all indications. I am HOPING that Miller or Lincoln fall to the M’s as they seem to be 1-2 for most teams, at least the teams that are scared off by Lincecum’s size/mechanics, etc.

  24. StandinPat said

    Any top talents with signability concerns, ala Hochevar last year? The M’s have money to spare and it would be great to see them nab a 1st round talent later in the draft.

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