Mock Draft v1.0
Posted by Jason A. Churchill on May 22, 2006
The first of 10 mock drafts wasn't nearly as easy as a year ago. Partly because the talent is half as deep, if that, and the clubs drafting near the top of the first round aren't large market clubs willing to hand out major league deals.
With so many questionable prospects, many teams will end up drafting for need than in any of the recent drafts, and it'll start as high as the first overall choice, where the Kansas City Royals have shown no willingness to hand a large bonus to Andrew Miller, the consensus top talent.
Until next Monday, here's the latest. But remember, this is not only likely to change, but it's probably changed since I started to write the HTML markup for this.
| 2006 First Round Mock 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| NO. | Team | Player | Pos. | Ht/Wt | School | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | Kansas City | Andrew Miller | LHP | 6-6/210 | North Carolina | ||||||||||||||
| 2 | Colorado | Evan Longoria | 3B | 6-2/190 | Long Beach St. | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | Tampa Bay | Brad Lincoln | RHP | 6-3/210 | California | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | Pittsburgh | Kyle Drabek | RHP | 6-0/190 | The Woodlands | ||||||||||||||
| 5 | Seattle | Luke Hochevar |
RHP | 6-5/210 | Tennessee | ||||||||||||||
| 6 | Detroit | Brandon Morrow | RHP | 6-3/210 | California | ||||||||||||||
| 7 | LA Dodgers | Tim Lincecum | RHP | 5-11/170 | Washington | ||||||||||||||
| 8 | Cincinnati | Clayton Kershaw | LHP | 6-3/210 | Highland Park | ||||||||||||||
| 9 | Baltimore | Max Scherzer | RHP | 6-2/205 | Missouri | ||||||||||||||
| 10 | San Francisco | Drew Stubbs | OF | 6-4/200 | Texas | ||||||||||||||
| 11 | Arizona | Jeremy Jeffress | RHP | 6-1/180 | Halifax County | ||||||||||||||
| 12 | Texas |
Daniel Bard | RHP | 6-4/210 | North Carolina | ||||||||||||||
| 13 | ChiCubs | Matt Antonelli | 3B | 6-0/205 | Wake Forest | ||||||||||||||
| 14 | Toronto | Travis Snider | OF | 6-0/230 | Jackson | ||||||||||||||
| 15 | Washington | Joba Chamberlain | RHP | 6-3/225 | Nebraska | ||||||||||||||
| 16 | Milwaukee | Bill Rowell | SS | 6-3/200 | Bishop Prep | ||||||||||||||
| 17 | San Diego | Matt LaPorta | 1B | 6-1/215 | Florida | ||||||||||||||
| 18 | Philadelphia | Wes Hodges | 3B | 6-1/210 | Georgia Tech | ||||||||||||||
| 19 | Florida | Brett Anderson | LHP | 6-4/215 | Stillwater | ||||||||||||||
| 20 | Minnesota | Chris Tillman | RHP | 6-4/190 | Fountain Valley | ||||||||||||||
| 21 | NY Yankees | Ian Kennedy | RHP | 6-1/195 | USC | ||||||||||||||
| 22 | Washington | Hank Conger | C | 6-0/210 | Huntington | ||||||||||||||
| 23 | Houston | Brett Sinkbeil | RHP | 6-3/190 | Missouri St. | ||||||||||||||
| 24 | Atlanta | Jordan Walden | RHP | 6-4/200 | Mansfield | ||||||||||||||
| 25 | LA Angels | Chris Parmelee | 1B | 6-1/205 | Chino Hills | ||||||||||||||
| 26 | LA Dodgers | Kasey Kiker | LHP | 5-11/185 | Russell County | ||||||||||||||
| 27 | Boston | Chris Marrero | 3B | 6-3/200 | Monsignor Pace | ||||||||||||||
| 28 | Boston | Dellin Betances | RHP | 6-9/215 | Grand Street | ||||||||||||||
| 29 | ChiSox | Max Sapp | C | 6-2/210 | Bishop Moore | ||||||||||||||
| 30 | St. Louis | Justin Masterson | RHP | 6-6/240 | San Diego St. | ||||||||||||||
prospectinsider.wordpress.com 
1996Coug said
Hochevar, huh? He’s been pitching in the Indy Leagues. How’s he looked, Jason?
JasonAChurchill said
Apparently very good. 92-97, good command.
I think it’ll come down to three guys. Morrow, Lincecum and Hochevar. If Hochevar signs with LA — longshot, but possible — it’ll be the two Pac 10 guys in which they have seen a lot of both.
1996Coug said
And then it’s flip a coin? These owners are pretty predictable about leveraging the local angle. Can they pass on Linecum if he’s there? Or resist for the better rated prospect?
JasonAChurchill said
I think if they take Hochevar or Morrow it’ll be because someone convinced the entire front office that his size and mechanics make him a big time risk.
Otherwise, they’d take him if he was there.
If Colorado takes Lincoln at No. 2, Tampa will probably take Lincecum.
Scruffy Lefty said
Just curious
What round would Jake Locker had gone in if he choose to play baseball instead of football?
Conor Glassey said
Jason –
What about Greg Reynolds? Supplemental first?
Also – are you going to watch Jackson High play at Safeco on Friday?
JasonAChurchill said
Locker — probably 3rd to 6th round range for Locker.
Reynolds is a late first to mid second rounder, probably.
He could go to Boston in one of their multiple picks or in the supplemental range, too.
Re: Snider
I may be covering that state tourney game for the local paper, so maybe.
germpod said
Who do you think has a higher ceiling and better mechanics, Hochever or Morrow?
JasonAChurchill said
Hochevar by a hair and Hochevar easily. Only because Morrow has had command issues.
JasonAChurchill said
Morrow has the better fastball at 93-99 while Hochevar (pronounced Ho-chi-var, soft ‘ch’ sound, like Churchill) typically sits 90-95. Hochevar uses a sinker a lot in the 88-91 range.
2quarters said
Hochevar a #1-2 type?
JasonAChurchill said
2-3.
Lincecum has No. 1 stuff, and Miller may end up with No. 1 stuff in the end. Lincoln, Morrow, Hochevar, etc, are all 2-3 types, based on stuff.
Command, risk and signability make up the draft order.
JasonAChurchill said
And just an hour after this went up, Greg Reynolds’ latest stock rose 20 spots.
See what I mean?
He and Huff from UCLA were guys ranked 22-40 last week. This week they are both 1st rounder and Reynolds, on the strength of his two wins over Brandon Morrow and Tim Lincecum, could be a top 15 pick.
He’s very projectable and is actually on the M’s radar.
MatthewCarruth said
Is there a train of thought that supports taking Reynolds 5th? That seems like a big reach.
Any thoughts on the who/what the Ms could be looking for at 49th?
JasonAChurchill said
It’s a reach for Reynolds at five, but there is going to be a lot of teams drafting the player they had a pre-draft contract agreement with.
I don’t think the M’s do that, because Lincecum and Hochevar are both signable and so are any of the other 4 guys they like.
At 49? They’ll take the best player available, regardless of position – college or prep.
I’m hoping one of the prep stars fall… Kasey Kiker, Chris Marrero, Brett Anderson…
MatthewCarruth said
Marrero would be a dream.
germpod said
Any thoughts on Ian Kennedy? Would you be upset if they took him with their second pick hoping he can regain what he had his sophomore season?
I am happy that we have a team that you do not have to worry about passing up the best player available for a cheaper player, Tui is a good example.
JasonAChurchill said
Kennedy is going to be a steal in round 2 for someone – unless one of the multi-picks clubs snags him late in the first or with a supplemental choice.
I'd like him at 49.
Re: Cheap/Best player
But if the player appears to be a really tough sign or potentially unsignable, you have to reassess.
Scruffy said
Hey Jason I was also wondering what round do you see Zach Clem from UW going in?
StandinPat said
How does Longoria’s bat project at 3rd? If the M’s can find a taker for Beltre later this year or in the offseason does he seem like a long term replacement?
germpod said
Sounds like most projections hve the M’s taking Greg Reynolds or Luke Hochevar, just reading scouting reports it sounds like Hochever is more likely to be the better pitcher then Reynolds. Any oppinions?
JasonAChurchill said
I don’t know what Clem’s draft status is, really. He’s not a high pick so I haven’t asked.
If the M’s take Reynolds at five it’s a mistake because one of the big five are going to be there and none of them are signability problems.
Miller, Lincoln, Lincecum, Hochevar and Morrow… one will be there.
Bilbo said
actually two and maybe three of those will be there (if Longoria and Drabek go 2-4 as anticipated). I think the M’s will have their choice between Lincecum, Hochevar and Morrow by all indications. I am HOPING that Miller or Lincoln fall to the M’s as they seem to be 1-2 for most teams, at least the teams that are scared off by Lincecum’s size/mechanics, etc.
StandinPat said
Any top talents with signability concerns, ala Hochevar last year? The M’s have money to spare and it would be great to see them nab a 1st round talent later in the draft.