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Seattle Mariners 2007 Projections

Posted by Jason A. Churchill on January 29, 2007

Projections Say This Year’s M’s to Look Like ’06 Club


By Dave Clark and Jason A. Churchill

The 2007 Seattle Mariners do not appear to be any better on paper than they were a year ago – at least to the naked eye. We’ve sat here all winter watching the club throw millions of dollars at mediocre pitchers and ink conservative deals to shore up an offense that needed much more than shoring up.

So the 78-win version of the Mariners is back, with a few replacements. Things don’t look so good from afar, and there is truly nothing to be excited about in the Emerald City as far as wins and losses goes… or is there?

There are several projection formulas on the market these days, many of which have been developed by some pretty strong baseball minds. Zips and Marcel are two of the more known systems, and according to each, the Seattle Mariners aren’t going to be “so freakin’ bad” this season.

The tables below are a compilation of Zips and Marcel projections for 2006, combined equally into one single projection. The projection listed is for the player that started on opening day (as well as the five starters) while the actuals include other players that played the positions last season, in order to get a full season in which to compare.

Ultimately landing just 16 points below projection displays the accuracies of the systems combined, even if either individual system is flawed in certain ways.

Thanks to Frangraphs.com for housing each system’s projections in one place so Dave Clark could do all the hard work without having to actually do it the hard way.

2006 Projections vs. Actuals
OD STARTER/POS. 06 PROJECTION 06 ACTUAL DIFFERENTIAL
Ichiro/RF .795 OPS .778 OPS -17
Jeremy Reed/CF .726 OPS .656 OPS -70
Adrian Beltre/3B .798 OPS .775 OPS -23
Richie Sexson/1B .891 OPS .831 OPS -60
Raul Ibanez/LF .781 OPS .871 OPS +90
Kenji Johjima/C .812 OPS .730 OPS -82
Jose Lopez/2B .711 OPS .734 OPS +23
Yuniesky Betancourt/SS .641 OPS .708 OPS +67
Carl Everett/DH .735 OPS .667 OPS -68
FULL TEAM TOTALS .765 OPS .749 OPS -16

As you can see, the projections systems, at least in tandem combination, were pretty accurate for the offense last season. Below is the same table for the starting rotation and bullpen.

2006 Projections vs. Actuals
STARTER 06 PROJECTION 06 ACTUAL DIFFERENTIAL
Jamie Moyer 4.76 ERA 4.39 ERA -27
Gil Meche 4.94 ERA 4.48 ERA -46
Jarrod Washburn 4.32 ERA 4.67 ERA +35
Felix Hernandez 3.51 ERA 4.52 ERA +101
Joel Pineiro 4.51 ERA 6.36 ERA +185
FULL ROTATION TOTALS 4.48 ERA 4.89 ERA +51
RELIEVER 06 PROJECTION 06 ACTUAL DIFFERENTIAL
J.J. Putz 4.61 ERA 2.3 ERA -231
Rafael Soriano 3.15 ERA 2.25 ERA -90
George Sherrill 4.02 ERA 4.28 ERA +26
Julio Mateo 3.89 ERA 4.19 ERA +30
Eddie Guardado 3.83 ERA 5.48 ERA +165
FULL PEN TOTALS 3.89 ERA 3.70 ERA -19

The projections laid out a season in which the Mariners should have won between 83-85 games. They underachieved both offensively and on the mound, and ended up winning 78 games, which was nearly dead-on per the club’s actual performance on the field.

The purpose of the above exercise will be carried out in the below tables – the 2007 projections for the Seattle Mariners. Again, this is a combination of the ZIPS and Marcel systems.

2007 Projections
OD STARTER/POS. 07 PROJECTION BENCH 07 PROJECTION
Ichiro Suzuki, CF
.787 OPS Willie Bloomquist .636 OPS
Jose Vidro, DH
.744 OPS Rene Rivera .636 OPS
Adrian Beltre, 3B .816 OPS Ben Broussard .772 OPS
Richie Sexson, 1B .831 OPS Mike Morse .772 OPS
Raul Ibanez, LF .806 OPS Jeremy Reed .727 OPS
Kenji Johjima, C .773 OPS Sean Burroughs .680 OPS
Jose Lopez, 2B .738 OPS Adam Jones .742 OPS
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS .718OPS Jeff Clement .628 OPS
Jose Guillen, RF
.788 OPS Bryan LaHair .643 OPS
FULL LINEUP TOTALS .779 OPS FULL PT/RESERVE TOTALS
.669 OPS

The offense is expected to dupe last year’s performance by 13 points, which isn’t much, but it is improvement. That is, if the club goes out and does what’s expected of them at the plate. The bench is terrible, even with Ben Broussard who is probably not going sniff a day on the roster this season as he is almost certain to be dealt by opening day.

2007 Projections
STARTER 07 PROJECTION RELIEVER 07 PROJECTION
Felix Hernandez 3.83 ERA J.J. Putz 3.31 ERA
Jarrod Washburn 4.46 ERA Chris Reitsma 4.69 ERA
Jeff Weaver 4.61 ERA George Sherrill
3.90 ERA
Miguel Batista
4.71 ERA Julio Mateo
4.20 ERA
Horacio Ramirez
4.86 ERA Jon Huber
4.32 ERA
FULL ROTATION TOTALS 4.47 ERA FULL PEN TOTALS
4.01 ERA

If all goes as formulated, the Mariners are slated to win 86 games, according to the runs scored – runs prevented systems, but as you can see, the 2006 starting rotation was ALSO expected to put up an ERA of just under 4.5, and they sputtered their way to suckocrity. If this year’s rotation is just as bad, the M’s will have trouble getting past the 78 victories they mustered a year ago.

The bullpen is not as strong, putting a lot of pressure on veterans Washburn, Weaver and Batista, but the key is clearly Felix Hernandez. If the King has a really good year – nothing ridiculous, but darned good – the club is probably an 85+-win team, and if some things fall their way offensively, i.e., Jose Lopez’s, Richie Sexson’s and Adrian Beltre’s consistency and the further development of Lopez and his double-play mate Yuniesky Betancourt, the Mariners might just win enough games to make this season quite interesting.

But that’s a lot of pressure to put on three players whose average age is barely 22.


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90 Responses to “Seattle Mariners 2007 Projections”

  1. Slack said

    I also think the M’s are pretty much the same team as last year. Miguel Batista’s name is such an eye sore on that rotation!
    What do you make of the new bench coach (McLauren was it?) saying that he thinks the M’s can win the division this year?

  2. I think the team has a higher ceiling this season, and it’s not really close. But there is as much or more risk in that bet.

    Weaver COULD be solid, putting up league average numbers. Ramirez MIGHT be ok, putting up near-league average numbers.

    Felix is likely to be at or above league average, and Washburn is about average, typically, but was sub par in 2006.

    Basically, the Mariners had ZERO starters last year that were at or above league average standards. Moyer was on pace for average numbers or so, but after he was dealt, his replacements pitched poor enough to bump that slot in the rotation to a well below average status.

    So if they can get three starters to equal or better that plain, and that isn’t too much to ask from those five, the club could be solid.

    We do have to remember that the pen is no longer dominant and the starters will have to carry a lot more of the burden.

  3. The pen losing strength is pretty apparent, but the good news is that the dropoff to the Hubers, Greens, Whites, O’Flaherty’s isn’t that big. A manager good mix and match the bullpen quite easily. Hargrove won’t, but he could.

  4. I think it’s huge that the bullpen either gets Lowe back, long shot there, or gets a pick-me-up from someone like Yorman Bazardo or Stephen Kahn.

  5. Jerry said

    I think that 78 wins is pretty realistic too.

    It is very easy to look at pre-season rosters and think “if Felix emerges as an ace, and Beltre is consistently good, and Sexson hits like 2004, and the starters hold up, they could contend.”

    Some of those things might actually happen. But is is also likely that the few bright spots (Putz, Ichiro, Ibanez) will be offset by a few disappointments (Sexson, Felix) and a few huge sucking chest wounds (Reed, Pineiro, Everett). Things have a way of evening themselves out.

    This is why a lot of these projection systems work. They will underestimate a few guys (Putz, Ibanez) and overestimate a few (Pineiro, Guardado, Everett) but the mean will be pretty close.

    I would expect that again. However, as JC and Dave Clark pointed out, this seasons roster is a lot more volatile. There is more room for upside, but there is also a much greater likelihood of major collapse due to injury or youth.

  6. I do prefer the 07 roster to the 06 roster. Don’t all of you?

    Disregard the money and contracts.

  7. “I think that 78 wins is pretty realistic too. ”

    78 wins would mean that this team is exactly the same, and that’s not what the numbers show. This roster is better. It shows a better offense, better starting rotation and a marginally worse bullpen. It shows about 85 wins. Not good, but not likely to be a craptastic fourth year of last place.

  8. slim said

    I’m curious what the win projections are for the other AL West teams using similar projections. 86 wins would be pretty competitive, right?

  9. I’ll add that to my to do list slim.

  10. I read somewhere, can’t remember where now for some reason, but i did jot it down…

    The Angels are projected to win 89-93 games, Oakland 81-83 games and Texas 78-84… I’m trying to find that now so I can share the formula.

  11. Malcolm said

    Why is Johjima’s OPS listed at 730?

    .291/.332/.451 –> .783

  12. Jerry said

    Bedir,

    My reasoning for taking the lower prediction is health.

    The M’s had exceptionally good luck with injury last season. If they had the exact same team and did it all over again, you could probably expect fewer wins. Even though the M’s did finish a little below their pythag expectations, I have to think that some of this is due to Grover. Since he is back, I don’t expect improvement in that area.

    The differnece between 2006 and 2007 is very likely going to be health. The M’s added three players who didn’t play much at all last season in Guillen, Ramirez, and Vidro. Ramirez and Vidro are serious health risks. They also added a stater who is past 35, although he seems pretty reliable. That is not a good recipe.

    The problem with projections like this is that they rarely account for 10 starts from Baek. Or Huber as the primary setup reliever. And that is not even considering what would happen if one of the core guys goes down.

    The M’s are not likely to be as lucky as they were last year. Especially not since they loaded up on sketchy, injury prone veterans this offseason.

  13. Jerry said

    Bedir,

    One more thing. While the projection for this year calls for more wins than the M’s actual record last year, it is nearly identical to the projection for last year. What does that tell you?

    I hate to be the eternal pessimist, but I would bet that this club finished below .500 again.

  14. Baseballistic said

    I’m thinking a slight improvement to the .500 mark. 81-81 sounds about right. If things bounce the M’s way though, and the Halos suffer an injury bug or underperform, the division could swing Seattle’s way pretty easily.

    By the way, I think Oakland will win more than 81-83 games. Billy Beane always finds a way to get things done and with Crosby and Harden coming back healthy (as unlikely as it is that they’ll stay that way), the A’s should be an 85-90 win team.

  15. Lance said

    I’m thinking like Slim. How does the rest of the A.L. West stack up? Total wins will be effected by the competition. Both the A’s and Rangers lost an awful lot of key people, and you can pull rabbitts out of your hat only so many times.

    The A’s need things to fall nearly perfectly to compensate, and the Rangers have a rotation of Millwood, Padilla, and three virtual rookies. Nuff said there.

    Angels look like the team to beat, in my view, but Seattle should be able to give them a run for the money. At least, the projection show that things aren’t as dire as the chicken littles would have us believe.

  16. Malcom, as stated in the text above the initial tables for the 2006 projection v. actuals, the OPS listed is a combo of all the players that played that position last year.

    So the .730 is for ALL M’s catchers in 2006.

  17. Goose said

    Which shows just how craptastic Rene Rivera is.

  18. Edgar said

    Is it really that hard to find a backup catcher who can hit or at least trick me into hitting. Where is Ben Davis?

  19. Goose said

    No, it isn’t.

    The Mariners proved that themselves when they picked up Quiroz, but they just never used him.

  20. Pitchers and Catchers in TWO weeks baby!

  21. Orlandu said

    Why isn’t there a projection for Arthur Rhodes?

  22. The Iceman Cometh said

    Probably because Arthur Rhodes automatically kicks ass.

  23. Edman said

    I truly hate computerized projections. If you enjoy going to the edge of a cliff, holding a rope, then leaning back….being told you have an 80% chance that you’ll be OK….enjoy.

    There are so many human factors involved, it can never come close to accuracy. When you can turn baseball players into Borg, perhaps.

    It’s fun to talk about, but I really don’t do much more than that with it. I certainly wouldn’t run to Vegas and put money on them.

  24. 3rd Watch said

    Lets just hope that the young core exceeds the projections that have been placed upon them. It would be nice to see Betancourt, Lopez and Hernandez improve and become budding stars. Young talent attracts all types of fans and stabilizes a team for years. We need a wildcard player to post a huge year. My guess is that Beltre will post big numbers, but hey everyone is thinking that. The biggest contributor that nobody expects might be Reed. It would be delightful to see him turn into the second coming of M.Kotsay.

  25. Not sure I understand where Edman is coming from, but the proof is in the past year’s data.
    They were awfully close overall, and I’m not calling Zips or Marcels the be-all, end-all, or praising them for anything special… it’s simply a more formal way to take a look at what the Mariners are on paper.

  26. bilbo said

    The numbers for Washburn and Weaver are probably not far off and Weaver is the most likely to post worse numbers. Felix, Batista and Ramirez will put up better numbers than these projections suggest and probably by significant margins (1 run for Felix, .25 – .5 for Batista and Ramirez) so I expect the M’s to be better than suggested on the pitching side.

    On the hitting side, the numbers are bearish for Vidro, Lopez and Yubet as I expect all of them to exceed the projections. There is a good chance for guys like Beltre, Guillen and Sexson to exceed the projections as well, but there is room for injury and/or regression by Guillen and Sexson in particular so I don’t want to be too bullish.

    I guess my point is that unless significant injury hits this team (which is entirely possible given the players they have signed) I suspect they will exceed these projections on the whole and be an 85-90 win team and compete for the playoffs with LAA. Don’t underestimate the significance of replacing players like Reed, Everett and Pineiro with league average players combined with continued improvement from Felix, JLo and Yubet!

  27. StandinPat said

    Off-season recap…for basically the same money we could have signed Cliff Floyd to Dh instead of Vidro, got Mark Redman to be a mediocre lefty over Ramirez, and Kept Soriano, Snelling and Fruto. But at least we have the most expensive 5th starter in all of baseball.

  28. Theoretically, Pat, yes. But Floyd wanted NO PART of the AL – Baltimore preferred him over Huff but he wouldnt even talk to them, and Mark Redman much prefers the central and eastern time zones (he baled repeatedly when Pitt was near trading him to Anaheim a few years back).

    So yes, the Mariners could and should have done better… but BETTER would have meant NOTHING AT ALL.

  29. 2quarters said

    The great thing about this team is that we could win anywhere from 65-95 games if a few things go bad or a few things go right.

    For example, what if Felix becomes the ace he’s bound to become this year? Let’s say he puts up a 2.5 ERA. Let’s say Ichiro doesn’t hit .300 but hits .335/.390 and Sexson and Beltre stay relatively consistent all year? What if Lopez’ potential power comes out?

    So many “what if’s” but hey, I’m sure the Marlins have said “what if” a few times, and the Detroit Tigers might have said a few “what if’s.”

  30. Goose said

    #23

    Joe Morgan, is that you?

  31. Gookie said

    why didnt we go hard after erstad? he was a risk worth taking. look at all the other risks we are taking on the new guys this year.

    and, does anybody out there know of any mariners players’ having myspace site?

  32. C. Cheetah said

    I see the reports of Weaver being signed, but I missed who was taken off the 40 man roster….any ideas Jason?

  33. nighthawk180 said

    Probably Lowe being put back on the 60 day DL. That would be my guess.

  34. They don’t have to make a move yet although Nighthawk is probably on the right track because they can use the 60-day DL again starting Feb 1.

  35. “does anybody out there know of any mariners players’ having myspace site?”

    Lots of minor leaguers do: Blackley, Tui, Liddi, Kahn, Mike Wilson, Craig James, Jeff Flaig, Erwin Jacobo, Harold Williams, Paul Fagan, Marquis Pettis, I’m sure there are more…

  36. Goose said

    Add Tony Butler to that list as well.

  37. There are a few dozen that I know of, but 80-90% of them have their profiles set to private.

    There are even a few big leaguers on my friends list.

  38. Slack said

    I heard Chris Tillman had one too. On DetectoVision, it was funny to compare Butlers answers to Tillmans. I got a kick out of it.

  39. John Doe said

    I believe the earliest date that players can be placed on the 60-day dl is March 1st not February 1st. The M’s are going to have to trade, release or dfa someone to make room for Weaver.

  40. It’s certainly not March 1st, it is definitely in February, though it is entirely possible that the date is not February 1.

    At the latest, it’s the first date that full squads are due to report for ST.

  41. Uncle Al said

    Jason
    I look forward to seeing your next 30 Prospects list. I think it’s obvious that the M’s have been flushing out their farm system. I agree with your statement that we should just ignore what the M’s spend or what they get in trade value. The FO just doesn’t seem to care at this point. Snelling and Soriano were determined to be injury risks and guys like Fruto, Cruceta, and others were deemed to have no value and just dumped. Right or wrong, they’ve pretty well locked the roster in for the next two seasons and aren’t in a position where they must overpay to acquire players because of having players in place. Bavasi will finally be able to use everything at his disposal. They must make decisions on Feierabend, Rowland-Smith, O’Flaherty, LaHair, Navarro, Balentien, Jimenez, Wilson, Morse, Garciaparra, Blackley, Bazardo, and Lowe who are currently on the 40 man roster. What do they do with Clement, Chick, Johnson, Thomas, Kahn, Chen, Rohrbaugh, or anyone else that must go on the 40 man in 08′. Can you come up with a list of players who might be added to the 40 man roster in 08′ or be lost in the draft? If only a few players must go on the 40 man roster in 08′, this might explain why they are doing some things that look like total insanity from the outside.

  42. slim said

    March 2 was the first day that any team used the 60-Day DL in 2006. March 4 was the first day any team used the 60-Day DL in 2005 (when Seattle DL’d Blackley to make room for Campillo). I believe the effective date for the 40 Day DL is probably March 1, since that’s when most teams have historically waited to make their Spring Training additions. It might also be February 16 whne the new waiver period starts.

    But its extremely unlikely that Lowe will be eligible to make room for Weaver. My guess is that Sean Green goes.

  43. Gookie said

    Give me Bernie Williams!

    2 reasons he’d be perfect for seattle
    1. He plays the guitar, seattles known for its musicians-albeit, he will not be homegrown.
    2. look at all the other mariners signings this offseason, we can have an old farts’ club!

  44. marc w. said

    43 – yeah, stick him down in Tacoma and he could form some interesting latin-infused folk duo with Hunter Brown. Add in Broussard if he’s still around, and you’ve got an all-M’s-system bill at Jazzbones or the Swiss.

    I would much prefer this to watching Bernie try to play baseball for the Mariners.

  45. I have the official answer straight from the Mariners.

    The first day a team can use the 60-day DL is the first day that pitchers and catchers report to spring training for that specific team. The dates vary and change from year and year, and it’s not the same date for every team.

    Mark Lowe Update: The Mariners aren’t 100% sure whether they are going to put him on the 60-day DL and they are going to wait until they have to make that move to do anything of the sort.

    They EXPECT to make it, but won’t yet.

    So, Yorman Bazardo is on waivers and is NOT expected to clear.

  46. nighthawk180 said

    Why Bazardo? He had a great winter league and could be a decent bullpen option. OR could be a move that leads to another. I mean like the mariners getting some players in return. I still dont see why Bazardo, there are plenty of others that should have been taken off instead. Am I over projecting bazardo or what?

  47. Goose said

    If he passes through waivers, the other 29 clubs should be ashamed. Kinda like the Mariners should be ashamed for even giving them the chance.

  48. Slack said

    Bazardo did well in the minors too and I always thought that his stuff might spike a little if put in the bullpen. I don’t like this move at all.

  49. Guys, I’m with ya…

    I got a phone call today from the Bay Area and Mr. Kaiser had a “WTF?” kinda attitude — and he’s right. The Mariners continue to operate without a plan.

    There are people who think Bazardo won’t last past the middle of the waiver order, which is why I say I don’t expect him to clear.

  50. Slack said

    A pitcher who once hit 98 on the radar gun deserved a better chance than that. I don’t get it. With Soriano traded for a bag of peanuts and Lowe’s injury, the M’s bullpen is thinner, which we all know already and if I were running the M’s, I would have put Bazardo at AAA where he would have been in position to help out of the ‘pen. It’s a good thing that Bavasi and the M’s front office aren’t politicians and running the country instead of the M’s, otherwise we’d all be in trouble!

  51. Eh, Slack, the fact that he was clocked at 98 on the gun a few times THREE YEARS AGO, should not have anything to do with it.

    He is what he is… 90-93 MPH fastball with decent movement, above average control, average change, potentially above average breaking ball that is inconsistent… likely big-league relief option in the next few years… Ceiling as a setup man or fourth starter.

    He, and about 40 dozen other arms in the game it seems, was probably on a non-steroid substance that is now banned that was not thru 2003 or 2004. He hasn’t touched 95 since the trade.

  52. Walrus said

    Just when I thought this Weaver signing may be “not TOO bad”, Billy does this….One step forward, 3 steps back…

  53. What’s ridiculous is that if they just traded Ben for a couple of A ball prospects already, they’d have his spot…

    Duh.

  54. Goose said

    Or Jeremy Reed.

  55. Well, they really HAVE TO trade Broussard.

    3.5 mil for a PT benchie who has NO experience as a club’s regular pinch hitter?

    Hell no. Carrying Reed makes sense. But yeah, either way it creates a 40-man spot.

  56. Walrus said

    Well, that would be…like having a plan for the future, and understanding how to build a roster, and possibly even building for the future…not something a Mariner GM nornmally has to worry about.

  57. Walrus said

    I just wish Bavasi would make it a little challenging to critize him and his actions….

  58. Goose said

    Which is probably why they haven’t traded Brouusard yet. Every team in baseball knows they have to trade him, so they have zero leverage, and aren’t getting squat for him.

  59. Oly Rainiers Fan said

    This is the frustrating thing about Bavasi’s moves. Taken individually, one could possibly rationalize almost all of them. But when you look at them in totality…that’s when you realize that he traded player A for a couple prospects that you think ‘well, we might have something eventually there’, and then the next year, he either trades them off for prospects lower down the development chain or lets them go on waivers. And you end up getting NOTHING for player A.

  60. Baseballistic said

    I’m 99.999999999999999% sure that Yorman Bazardo won’t clear waivers — unless the other 29 GMs have suddenly turned into Bill Bavasi clones.

    This Weaver signing is looking worse and worse by the day.

    On the Broussard front: can you name any teams that are in desperate need of a guy like Broussard? I can think of a few, but none of them really HAVE to make a move right now. So, as Goose said, the M’s have no leverage.

    …nothing like some prospect rankings to cheer me up — when are the 21-30’s coming out? Thanks for the Bazardo update, JAC. Keep up the great work.

  61. 21-30 will be posted tonight or tomorrow and 11-20 on Wednesday… 1-10, not sure yet.

  62. Yay! I can’t wait to see 1-30, Jason.
    On a related note: Am I the only one bummed out that Goldstein didn’t post the Mariners list today?

  63. Ralph said

    I just doesn’t make sense for Bavasi to trade Broussard. His value isn’t low enough yet. A Reed trade is much more likely.

    Broussard will only be traded when he’s hitting .220-.250 or so. Bavasi will probably also designate him for assignment first. Just to make sure that he gets as little as possible in return.

  64. Goose said

    Bazardo has been DFA’d.

    Link

  65. Ralph said

    I’m sure a Blackley DFA will be next, so Bavasi can make room for Jim Parque.

  66. Goose said

    That would have to come after the season has started, as Parque is just a NRI.

  67. Yeah, Bazardo isn’t going to clear waivers. We’ve been here.

  68. nighthawk180 said

    This really bugs me. White sent back, Green, Lowe Back to the 60 DL. I mean come on this doesnt make any sense. So many different options out there.

  69. They are deciding between Weaver, Batista and company over the AAAA types.

    We knew Lowe was eventually going back to the 60-day…

    White was insurance.

    They didn’t give up anything of value to get White in the first place.

  70. Ralph said

    You’re right Goose, we’ll just have to wait to see which 1 or 2 NRI players make the team this year. Bavasi has added at least one every year.

  71. Goose said

    I’d say the chances of Parque actually making the team are nonexistant, unless a miracle happens. If an NRI has to make the club, my money is on Rhodes.

  72. Parque is one, however, that may be worth keeping around in AAA, and he may actually be ok with that.

  73. Goose said

    Maybe in some kind of instructional role to the kids? Because I personally don’t see him doing much on the field.

  74. I don’t get that statement at all, Goose. You don’t know what kind of shape his arm is in, or his mental status, either.

    While I can’t disagree that his major league chances are a super long shot, if that, it’s certainly not far-fetched to think he can provide a veteran presence ON THE FIELD in Tacoma. Is it likely? I wouldn’t say that, because all things being equal, the M’s will go with the kids. But it’s not a longshot there by any stretch.

  75. Goose said

    True, I don’t know anything about how is arm is doing or whatnot, but I’m just saying that he’s been out of baseball for 3,4 years? The chances of him doing anything IMO aren’t good. I mean if he does, then hey, more power to him. But how often do you hear of that kind of thing happening?

  76. We’re talking about being useful in AAA, not the big leagues.

  77. Gookie said

    Parque’s got a good oppertunity atleast to prove that he has something left. He hasn’t pitched at all in baseball, ((right?)) for the past few years since recovoring from arms issues. So, this is a nice pickup, minus the fact that we lost a prospect who might be on the rise.

    Tacoma needs that veteran leadership. You can’t just throw 25 rookies out there. Jim’s been around a little bit and has a feel for the major league level of play. That will do mindless wonders for young pitchers all alone if his arm doesn’t fall off, and he goes to the DL.

  78. Ralph said

    You’re right, Parque has been around, a little bit. Three full seasons. That just reeks of “veteran leadership” just waiting to be unleashed.

    If “veteran leadership” is needed that much in Tacoma, I’ve got a better idea. Send Willie Bloomquist down there, and put an MLB caliber player on the roster.

  79. Edgar said

    I’m getting a little tired of the excessive hate for bloomquist in the blogosphere. The public likes him too much and the blogs hate him too much. If he isn’t on our bench this year, we really lack a guy who can be a PR. He gives us a lot of flexibility too. The only problem is that Hargrove doesn’t understand that he lacks all power and should never start or hit.

  80. Ralph’s comments on Parque are way off… in AAA, his maturity and THREE YEARS mean a whole hell of a lot even if he can’t help them on the field.

    Ask a young minor league pitcher that has had a 28-30 year old vet on his team for awhile… it doesn’t even matter if he has ANY big league experience at all… the life experience is enough, and it’s not like Parque has just three years of PITCHING experience.

  81. Javi Flowers said

    Hello Jason My name is Javier have 3 question for you.

    ¿What´s the velocity atually of Miguel Marquez and his future? and

    ¿Mario Martinez is a five tool?Thanks

  82. Marquez has been clocked into the 93-94 range, but he doesn’t sit in that range. At his peak, he may, but I’d bet he lands in the low 90s. He’s a pretty interesting arm and he simply needs to put it into good performances on the mound against tough competition.

    It’s easy for me to sit here and say that his future probably lies in the bullpen, because it’s a safe bet on any young pitcher. But Marquez has good enough stuff to start. It’s just too early in his career to project what he’ll be with any certainty, though I do try to put my best thoughts into questions like this.

    I think his fastball-slider combo is good fit for the pen.

    Mario Martinez is a five-tool guy, but it remains to be seen how well he can put those to use on the field. There are so many five-toolers that never turn into anything. Running fast and fielding well dont mean much if you can’t hit a lick.

  83. Javi Flowers said

    fast answer jeje.Thanks very match Jason are you a good friend champion.

  84. Javi Flowers said

    oooh one moment Jason.

    ¿Your have iformation of the pitchers Font Wilmont PD, ; Ricardo Ferrer, PD; Danny Salazar, PD; Joel Romero, PD y Fabián Jedrón, PZ?

  85. Boy, Javi, yer gonna have to give me some time to ask someone about those arms… cool?

  86. Javi Flowers said

    Sure my friend.

  87. Jay said

    Hello Jason,
    Do you see Craig James having a shot at the show this yr? Have you had a chance to see him so far this Spring Training?
    I believe with him being a primarily Ground Ball pitcher, he may have some good oppurtunities.

  88. I like James and I think he does have a shot to reach the majors this year, but there are a group of guys ahead of him, depending on who makes the team out of ST and who heads back to the minors.

  89. Jay said

    Thanks Jason..I’ll be keeping a close eye on James.Once his consistency comes around I believe he will turn some heads.

  90. Javi Flowers said

    Hello Jason I´m Javi Flowers, Manage to obtain this, but ¿ not if it is true?.Pitcher venezuelan Wilmer Font signed for the Rangers of Texas 16 years old, 6´4 fastball 93 miles.

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