No. 2 – Jeff Clement, C

When the Mariners took the, umm, telephone, and made the third overall selection in the 2005 First Year Players Draft, there was very little doubt about which few talents they were strongly considering. The draft’s two best talents – Alex Gordon and Justin Upton – were already gone, and the Mariners needed to nail the selection while adding depth to their farm system and a can’t miss bat to their lineup.

With rumors of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and OF Cameron Maybin, the Mariners believed their “need” player matched their “best available” player, and selected Jeff Clement, an offensive catcher from the University of Southern California.

Since then, Maybin has become among the top 10 prospects in baseball, Tulowitzki has earned a starting role in the big leagues, and several others that were taken after Clement have seen much brighter days, including Milwaukee’s slugger Ryan Braun (No. 5), Boston outfielder Jacob Ellsbury (No. 23), Twins righty Matt Garza (No. 25), Mets right-hander Mike Pelfrey (No. 9) and Nationals’ 3B Ryan Zimmerman (No. 4).

But there’s more than hope for Clement, who plays a position that is known to take longer for development, and several explanations for not “lighting up” the box scores since draft day.

He’s been mishandled, injured and forced to share time when he deserves better. If the club allows him get back on the right path to the bigs, that’s exactly where he’ll be in no time at all.

Strengths: Clement is a left-handed bat with plus power potential and solid plate skills, including a much better batting eye than he displayed post-knee surgery a year ago. With quick wrists propelling a short, line-drive swing, the offense-first catcher has all the tools to bat in the middle of a big-league lineup for several years.

He’s capable of going the other way, and with power, and while he runs like a catcher, he’s also got solid base-running instincts and his work ethic will not be the reason he fails at anything.

Clement possesses good makeup and has the desire to improve enough defensively to succeed Kenji Johjima as the Seattle Mariners full-time backstop.

Weaknesses: Clement lacks athleticism which may catch up with him in his endeavor to prove he can stick behind the plate. He has adequate strength and hands and should eventually develop solid throwing technique but the questions that remain include his ability to move laterally to block pitches.

AGE	HEIGHT	WEIGHT	BATS	THROWS	ACQUIRED
23	6-1	215	Left	Right	Draft, 2005 – 1st round

YEAR	TEAM	LEVEL	G	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS*
2006	San Antonio	AA	15	6	1	2	7	8	.288	.386	.428	.911	.942
2006	Tacoma	AAA	67	10	0	4	16	53	.257	.321	.347	.668	.703

Tools –

Hitting for Average (on-base skills): Clement occasionally displays the inability to cover the outer half of the plate but his overall approach and aptitude to take pitches to the opposite field is enough evidence that he’ll fill that gap with more experience versus better pitching.
Clement is patient but still has room to grow in that area while he polishes off his strike zone judgment and sharpens his pitch recognition, which is already solid. He’ll draw an adequate number of walks and should ultimately limit the strikeouts to satisfactory levels – both very positive signs for his future with the bat.

If he’s able to maximize his development, there’s no reason Clement can’t hit in the .270s with solid on-base percentages in the .340-.360 range.
Grade: 50/55

Hitting for Power: Clement is the type of power bat that teams covet because he doesn’t have to swing out of his shoes to produce the bat speed necessary to send pitches sailing 350-400 feet.

Instead, he relies on balance and timing, centered around a classic hip-turn that pulls his bat through the zone with plus bat speed. Clement is a classic repetition hitter that is likely to improve with every plate appearance, and though his future behind the plate is somewhat in question, he’s still a good bet to turn into a well above-average performer standing next to it.
Grade: 55/65

Glove: Clement isn’t a bad defensive catcher, his shortcomings are mostly due to lack of proper instruction and, here’s that word again, repetition. Injury pretty much robbed him of a full year of development, but he’s made strides since the end of last season that have the Mariners excited about what lies ahead.

Clement’s hands are “light years better,” as one member of the player development department said, than they were at the start of last season and his understanding of the position has improved significantly. When knowing what to do is half the battle, it’s an enormous step when those instructing begin to let the student teach himself, and that’s starting to happen with Clement.

He’s springing up out of his crouch better than ever, thanks to a healthy knee and enhanced catch-and-throw mechanics.

While the coaches are seeing the improvements, pitchers are starting to notice, too, and that may be more important than anything. One right-hander opined that he’s twice the catcher he was last year.

“I had no idea it was Clement back there,” he said. “I remember last year he seemed uncomfortable in his squat, which made me a little uncomfortable throwing to him. I guess since I didn’t know him at all, I wasn’t too confident with him back there.

“Man, I thought it was (Rob) Johnson or (Adam) Moore, or maybe one of the new guys. He seemed much more confident and active.”

While a Gold Glove is not likely in Clement’s future, it appears that his chances to catch, at least some, in the big leagues improve with every day of experience.
Grade: 45/50

Arm: With adequate arm strength, Clement’s throwing technique, like everything else in his game, just needs time. Like pitchers, catchers need to repeat their throwing motion to develop consistent, accurate throws and eliminate any delay-forcing hitches in their mechanics.

If Clement is to become an everyday catcher, he’ll certainly need to vastly improve his throwing, but it, too, has gotten better over the past eight months, even without much playing time.
Grade: 45/50

Future: While projecting Clement as an all-star catcher is probably going too far, he’s got the offensive skills to do just that. If the M’s are patient enough with his catching, and can avoid rushing his bat, the USC product remains a pretty good prospect that could provide the big club with a number of prolific seasons.

The club probably stunted his development by rushing him to Triple-A Tacoma last summer, and it appears they are backing off that approach somewhat this season.

At last check, the M’s are considering sending Clement to Double-A West Tennessee where he can play everyday in a contented environment. Splitting time with Rob Johnson, or anyone else for that matter, isn’t conducive to either player’s development, particularly Clement’s, who needs the time defensively.

“It’s irresponsible to do what they (Mariners) did last year,” said a rival front office member. “They rushed their shortstop (Asdrubal Cabrera) before trading him, they rushed both catchers (Johnson, Clement) and they pushed Tui (Matt Tuiassosopo) far too qucikly. They should know better, and I bet they do.

“It really seems like they promoted those kids to make something that wasn’t there naturally. You can’t create value in your prospects that way, it’s going to catch up to them at some point, and they went o-fer with all of them. It’s not only counterproductive, it’s inexcusable and probably cost themselves and their players career time, or possible a career at all.

“Clement probably was effected the most, since he had the most to lose. I’m telling you, if he’s handled properly, he’s still a big-time prospect and I’m really excited for his future.”

OFP: 62

MLB ETA: 2007 (September)

MLB CLONE:

Ceiling: Jorge Posada
Median: Robert Fick
Cellar: Eric Munson

PI Projection: .283/.344/.459, 48 BB, 78 K

Churchill on Clement: I really like Clement, and I can’t really point to one thing that I like most about his game. Of course, his ceiling defensively is in the average range, and there is still a decent chance he never catches a game in the majors, but you have to like a guy who just goes to work every day, no complaints, no whining, no excuses, no days off, and absolutely no artificial fanfare.

Sounds like a catcher to me.

While just about everything you hear about Clement is that he may not catch, or won’t catch, or can’t catch, some are also doubting his bat, which to me is a little odd, especially those who loved his bat a year ago and have done a 180.

What’s changed, I ask. He was raking in Double-A, just as most expected he would, and was rushed to Tacoma where he struggled to shake off the rust and never found any consistency, neither physically with the knee and elbow nor with on-field performance.

If anything is excusable, it’s being rushed back from injury and thrust into situations where he had little chance to succeed, and failing.

It’s not an excuse, it’s just very excusable. Clement can hit, and didn’t forget how while rehabbing from knee surgery.

Besides, the biggest problems at the plate in Tacoma were about making contact and squaring up the fastball and getting some pop behind it.

He’ll hit, and that’s the key to his status as a major asset in the farm system.

If he catches, which will necessitate the M’s being patient enough for him to develop, he’s damned near a bluechipper.

No. 4 – Tony Butler, LHP

Since 1998 the Seattle Mariners have been perusing the talent in the game of baseball, actively searching for left-handed pitching.

They’ve signed a few, traded for a couple and selected a number of them every June. But until round three of this past year’s draft, there hasn’t been such a promising southpaw since Ryan Anderson was taken in the first round nearly 10 years ago.

Tony Butler could very well be part of the resurgence of your Seattle Mariners, barring a miracle that the return to prominence occurs sooner.

With a plus fastball and curve and great makeup, the 19-year-old is an improved changeup away from being the next all-star quality starter in Mariners blue.

Strengths: Butler is able to create a leverage advantage with all of his pitches, and has shown the ability to induce ground balls as a result. He’s also got a lot of confidence to go with a strong work ethic and tons of projectability – one of the main reasons the M’s took a shot at him in the third round.

His velocity jumped markedly late in his prep season last spring and while many clubs had given up on him as an early pick, the Mariners stayed with him and it may pay off.

Butler’s considered to be a solid young man and his acumen for learning receives top grades by all accounts – inside and outside the Mariners organization. His performance in Everett last summer has many scouts saying the M’s got the steal of the round, if not the entire draft.

Weaknesses: Butler has a few flaws in his mechanics that the club sees as “necessary to fix” but none are supposedly career breakers by any means. The 19-year-old left-hander is about average at holding runners at this stage of his career but fields his position at an above-average level.

He tends to become predictable with his pitch selection, though that surely didn’t show up in the results last season, and will need to learn better sequential schemes to succeed in the upper levels of the minors.

AGE	HEIGHT	WEIGHT	BATS	THROWS	ACQUIRED
19	6-7	210	Left	Left	Draft, 2006 – 3rd Round

YEAR	TEAM	LEVEL	G	IP	ERA	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	AVG	SLGA	OPS	OPS*	BABIP*
2006	Peoria	R	5	14	2.57	0.00	5.79	16.07	.116	.186	.482	.482	.278
2006	Everett	SS	9	42.1	2.76	0.43	5.31	11.06	.160	.236	.523	.503	.233

Tools –

Fastball: Butler was scouted as a mid-round pick as the season began last spring while he sat in the 87-90 range with his fastball. About halfway through his senior season he began to reach back for more, and more is what he got. He often touched 93 with a four-seamer, and that trend continued as a pro.

Butler gets good downward plane on his 90-93 mph heater, and while its horizontal movement is about average, it’s still a plus pitch due to the improved velocity and vertical action.

His fastball command needs improvement, but that will come with repetition and proper coaching.
Grade: 60/65

Curve: Butler’s out pitch is his 1-7 curve ball that he has loads of confidence throwing in any count. Even 3-0, Butler has shaken off his catcher to get the old No. 2, wound up and fired in a low-80s yacker that can buckle the knees of a left-handed bat and force a righty to give up early and regret it dearly.

He overused the pitch at times and the club asked him to back off the pitch late last year to save some torque on his young elbow, which forced/allowed him to use his third pitch more often.

Butler’s curve is currently above average and has the depth and late break to become a plus power curve ball that could give major leaguers a heckuva tough time.
Grade: 55/65

Change: Currently his third best offering, Butler’s change is actually fairly solid considering he didn’t use it much in high school. He’s got a circle grip that should prove to be an easy learn for him with his larger-than-average hands and fingers.

With good dead-fish action, it’s already a useful offering and the more he throws it, the better it’ll get. If he can gain more confidence in the change-up, the sky is the limit for the Wisconsin native.
Grade: 50/60

Command: While he only served up two home runs in over 56 innings of work last summer, he did find a way to issue nearly 5.5 walks per nine innings. He countered that with more than 12 K/9 but the walk rates have to improve against better competition.

Butler did have spurts of solid control in Everett, but it appeared as if he was trying to make a perfect pitch and that’s something a lot of young pitchers have to fight off.

There’s no reason why Butler can’t improve his command to the average level, or better, and his 2007 campaign will likely entail a lot of dialogue containing the words “throw strikes” from pitching coach Lance Painter.
Grade: 40/50+

Mechanics: Butler’s delivery pours his left arm out of the 5/8 slot which helps him hide the ball a little longer and create a slurvy curve ball. Being 6-7 and fairly athletic can both aid and hinder Butler’s mechanics, but he’s already built a pretty solid foundation of which to work.

Only minor adjustments are necessary at this point in his career, but one of them is the inconsistent length in his stride toward home plate. See? Minor, but a necessary fix.
Grade: 50/55

Future: Butler has the pure stuff to push to become a No. 1 starter in the big leagues. To make that a reality, he’ll have to avoid major injury, which means a lot of focus on his mechanics, and vastly improve his command.

While bettering one’s command to that extent is rare, Butler’s still capable of settling in as Seattle’s No. 2 starter, right behind Felix Hernandez, who’ll be a crafty veteran when Butler breaks through in a few years.

He’s a natural candidate to turn his curve ball into a slider, but that will likely have to happen naturally and without any significant changes in his approach with his breaking ball.

Butler will start his 2007 campaign in his home state of Wisconsin where he’ll be aided, if anything, by the ballparks, though the colder weather conditions tend to make it tough to pitch, as well as hit.

Butler could move very quickly if he sustains his velocity and his command shows good improvement from year to year.

MLB ETA: 2009

MLB CLONE –

Ceiling: Mark Mulder

Median: Doug Davis

Cellar: Eric Milton

OFP: 65.5

PI Projection 2007: 3.5 ERA, 145 IP, 9.8 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.6 G/F

No. 5 – Ryan Feierabend, LHP

Three years ago Ryan Feierabend was just another “soft-tossing lefty” among many graded ahead of him in the Mariners farm system.

Behind the likes of Bobby Livingston and Travis Blackley, Feierabend just kept quiet, went about his work and the results of his efforts are now shining through. The 6-3, 200-pounder has more projectability than either of his southpaw cohorts, and is now No. 5 on the M’s prospect list.

Strengths: Feierabend is the quintessential poster boy for the step-by-step plan for pitching prospects. Since being drafted, Feierabend has moved at a medium but consistent pace through the system, ending last season in the big leagues at age 21.

The southpaw is a student of the game and has built his repertoire around a fastball that has jumped nearly 5 mph since June of 2003, thanks to careful adjustments in such things as the grip on his fastball, his entire delivery and his overall approach to pitching.

He’s got the best pickoff move in all of the minors (36 of 39 would-be basestealers caught trying and two straight pickoff titles), and his secondary stuff has improved significantly every season, allowing him to compete successfully against more experienced bats, year-in and year-out.

Smart, tough and ever-improving, Feierabend is well on his way to a long major league career.

Weaknesses: Without overpowering velocity or a devastating breaking ball, Feierabend has to work for his outs and will need to continue to sharpen his command which would allow his above-average stuff to play up.

If he is pushed to the majors and forced to finish his development while attempting to keep his roster spot, Feierabend will need to learn to handle failure and bounce back the next time through the rotation.

AGE	HEIGHT	WEIGHT	BATS	THROWS	ACQUIRED
21	6-3	200	Left	Left	Draft, 2003 – 3rd Round

YEAR	TEAM	LEVEL	G	IP	ERA	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	AVG	SLGA	OPS	OPS*	BABIP*
2006	San Antonio	AA	28	154	4.28	0.94	3.22	7.42	.267	.426	.759	.782	.317

Tools –

Fastball: Feierabend’s fastball is his most important offering in one sense, because everything else he does is dependent on getting ahead in the count on a regular basis.

His heater currently sits in the 89-92 mph range after starting his pro career in the mid-80s. Feierabend is able to locate his fastball on both sides of the plate and can occasionally sneak one of his better four-seamers by good hitters, even if it’s up in the zone a bit.

He’s also able to get some solid sink action on it without taking anything off, and can cut it in on righties and away from lefties.
Grade: 50+/55

Curve: Perhaps the most improved pitch in his arsenal, Feierabend’s curve ball is very much like that of former Mariners pitcher Jamie Moyer, with similar depth and additional velocity, but lacking the consistency.
Grade: 45/50

Slider: Right now his slider is his third best pitch, but in time his curve is expected to surpass it’s breaking pitch bretheren. The more his curve improves, the less he’ll throw the slider, except perhaps against lefthanded bats.
Grade: 50/50+

Change: Feierabend’s bread and butter is his fastball-change combo, and his circle changeup is probably his best chance at keeping big-league hitters at bay. He’s as consistent with his fastball-change velocity differential as anyone in the system, sitting in the 80-82 mph range with the dead fish.

Considering his four-seamer sits around 90 mph, an 80 mph changeup with good deception is a weapon any pitcher can use.
Grade: 55/65

Command: Feierabend continues to improve his consistency, and his command has taken leaps over the past two seasons, despite slightly inferior walk rates last season, which can be partly explained by the level of competition.

But all that proves is that Feierabend needs another year in the minors to round out the edges. He throws strikes with regularity and rarely hurts himself with the base on balls or the big fly.
Grade: 55/60+

Mechanics: Feierabend is usually smooth and balanced with his motion,throwing from a 4/5 arm slot, but can fall into a bad habit of exerting too much effort, overthrowing and landing off-balance on his front foot. The club doesn’t feel that it’s a major issue and believe he may have done that for the last time, citing a small adjustment at the top of his delivery to reestablish balance.
Grade: 45/55

Future: Feierabend’s ceiling is probably as a No. 3 starter, but there is little risk that he’ll be useful in the big leagues. His stuff isn’t necessarily built to play well in the bullpen, but it’s not likely to matter – he’s a starter through and through.

He’ll need to get better versus lefthanders but has the stuff (slider, cutter) to do it.

The Ohio native will begin the year in Triple-A Tacoma and is high on the short list of call-ups, should the need arise.

One scout, who specializes in young projectable pitchers, had this to say about Feierabend early last season:

“Oh yeah, he’s going to be a pretty good one, and probably for a long, long time. One of those middle-tiered types who always finds a job and has some good years.”

MLB ETA: 2007

MLB CLONE –
Ceiling: Cliff Lee
Median: Nate Robertson
Cellar: Randy Keisler

OFP: 63.0
PI Projection 2007: 4.2 ERA, 7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.42 G/F