• Cheater’s Guide to Baseball

    I can't help but recommend this book to anyone and everyone who likes baseball... and even those who really don't. A funny book about all the cheaters in baseball? What can be better than that during the steroid era?

    Pre-order your copy of Cheater's Guide to Baseball by Derek Zumsteg of USSMariner.

Ten Reasons Why the M’s Will NOT Win the West

Posted by Jason A. Churchill on June 21, 2006

Okay, from Mr. Optimistic to his pessimistic cousin, here are 10 reasons why the M's have very little chance, if any, to continue their winning ways and contend in the American League West.

But first, remember, there are more than 10 reason, at least detailed reasons, these just happen to be the on-field factors that stick out.

10. The M's are relying on far too many unproven offensive talents to score 5+ runs per game, which is what it's going to take to compete all season.

Jose Lopez is off to a fantastic start but one cannot expect Lopez to slug .475 for the season. If he does, great, and it's not impossible for him to do so by any means, but the club simply cannot lean on him that much.

How long can Yuniesky Betancourt hit nearly .300? Again, he may, but the club is winning right now, partly because there aren't any easy outs in the lineup. The smart money is that both Lopez and Betancourt hit slump, probably at the same time, for a decent stretch in the second half of the season. Pitchers will start to find some holes and force them both to adjust.

Kenji Johjima is already in a tailspin offensively… He'll come out of it and he's still an upgrade over 2005, but the club needs him to produce regularly if they are to stay in it.

Say what you will about Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson – they have to hit at some decent level for the M's to even play .400 ball after the break. But the kids have to continue to back them up, or the postseason is simply a dream – and that is asking an awful lot of a couple of rookies.

9. Gil Meche and Joel Pineiro just aren't good.

Meche has been very good at times and as bad as it gets in other starts. And Joel Pineiro is bad, even when he's good. Smoke and Mirrors will not get the M's pitching staff through even the weak AL West.

Meche has a chance, at least, to be league average, which is really all the M's can hope for, and all they need from him. But if Pineiro is going to be among the league's worst starting pitchers, the Mariners are going to be a starter short of contention.

Relying on the relief corps to pick up the slack 40 percent of the time is unacceptable and just won't do.

8. Lack of Trade Bait.

While the Oakland A's and Texas Rangers are out panning the league to acquire help at the trading deadline, the Seattle Mariners are stuck.

They have the payroll space to take on a contract, but is Howard Lincoln going to be willing to pay, in dollars, for what the club cannot supply in terms of minor league talent? I seriously doubt it.

Jason Schmidt is not coming here. Barry Zito is not coming here. Carl Crawford is not going to dress in navy blue anytime soon – at least not on ball field.

Even an arm like Odalis Perez is making too much cash for the Mariners to be willing to add him in July.

The offensive help is limited to Ken Griffey, Jr, whom the Reds probably won't be willing to simply "dump" this year, since they are within shouting distance of the postseason, and someone like Aubrey Huff or Reggie Sanders.

The A's may deal Barry Zito, weakening their starting rotation for the time being, but in the end, they are probably going to add immediate help that will continue into the next few seasons.

Adding a major-league ready bat and a young, mid-line starter for Zito is probably going to help the A's down the stretch, since their biggest weakness lies in their everyday lineup.

In the end, a mediocre farm system is going to haunt the Mariners to a significant degree once the deadline comes and goes. They'll be slurping their colas from the backseat.

7. Jamie Moyer, an ageless wonder, cannot be the ace of the staff.

He's pitched better than the other four starters all season long and his 3.53 ERA is impressive enough, but like the kids in the lineup – how long can he pitch at this level? He's much more likely to fall back down to earth somewhat, and land that ERA in the 4.00-4.3 range where it was a year ago.

Moyer's ERA may be an anomaly, anyways. Last season he posted a 4.28 mark while his rate stats stood at .283/.331/.441 with a 4.59 K/9 and a 1.96 K/BB.

This seasons he's marginally better – or the same – in all areas; .279/.321/.441, 4.78, 2.26.

There is some luck in Jamie's numbers this year, though expecting him to fall apart probably wouldn't be wise. I just expect him to finish somewhere near last season's numbers. Over 200 innings, a league average park-adjusted ERA, and leadership is what Moyer brings to this club.

They'll take it, and so will I, but he's not the staff ace that they need him to be in order to battle the A's and Rangers…

Which brings us to No. 6.

6. Felix Hernandez.

Hernandez is a reason to both believe the M's can win this division, and a reason to believe they can't. Until the past three weeks, the 20-year-old has been the model of inconsistencies, both within games and over the course of the first 10 weeks of the season.

If Hernandez finds a steady balance every five days, the M's have themselves a staff ace. A horse that can stop losing streaks and help the club avoid bad streaks to begin with.

But he's 20, in his first full year in the bigs and has yet to show he's capable of pushing through. I'm not picking on him, not at all, but unless Felix dupes his 2005 over the next six weeks, Seattle could easily find themselves 10 games back by the time July 31 rolls around.

Hernandez can pick up some of the slack that Meche and Pineiro are serving up, and then some. But the chances of "ace, Felix Hernandez" aren't very high, at least consistently.

5. The Bullpen is Very Shallow.

Like a kiddie pool in South Orange in July, the M's relief corps is extremely shallow. Closer J.J. Putz, right-hander Rafael Soriano and southpaw George Sherrill are steady, reliable relievers.

But Eddie Guardado, Jake Woods, Julio Mateo and Emiliano Fruto are not what you'd call a formidable group.

Woods and Guardado are out of their elements. Woods because he's a Triple-A pitcher and Guardado because he's got no stuff and being asked to be a lefty setup man – after spending the last four+ years as a closer.

Mateo isn't what he was, even last year, and certainly is nowhere near his 2003 form. Fruto just isn't ready to get it done consistently in the majors. He's got the stuff, but his command needs work.

Mateo has a chance to still be pretty useful, but it doesn't appear that he's going to be capable of covering 2+ innings per appearance like he did a year ago.

At some point, Soriano and Putz may tire out, setting the club up for disaster in August.

Relying on the other four arms scare the daylights out of me – and apparently Mike Hargrove, too, since he's gone to Mateo in shorter stints than he did a year ago, and isn't counting on him in tight situations.

If it comes down to the starting pitching and their struggles, the bullpen can't back them up, and that spells doom for a club that isn't likely to score a ton of runs down the stretch.

4. The M's don't have a K-Rod or a Miguel Cabrera in their farm system.

There won't be any late-season additions from within that have a chance to push the offense over the top or to shore up a weak spot in the rotation or bullpen.

Adam Jones isn't ready for the show just yet, Jeff Clement has a lotof work to do before showing he's ready to face major league arms, and Shin-soo Choo isn't an impact bat.

The one guy with a chance to help, albeit at much less than a Cabrera-like level , is Chris Snelling. Snelling, however, has his own issues, such as the surgically-repaired knee that kept him out until May.

Snelling can hit in the big leagues, there isn't a lot of doubt about that. If he can regain his timing and heal up that knee, he has a shot to replace Carl Everett in the lineup — but there isn't a lot of impact in that exchange, at least not enough to offset what the rest of the division is capable of getting done.

The only arm that makes any sense right now is Francisco Cruceta, though, like Fruto, he has command problems that pokes its head up a little more often

3. The Oakland Athletics.

One game could keep the M's from winning the division, and if that ever happened, you can put good cash on that one game being at the hands of the Oakland A's, aka, the daddies of the 2006 Seattle Mariners.

The M's have a history of struggling in Oakland, and have had trouble with certain pitchers, even inexplicably bad pitchers, which is the case with Joe Blanton this year.

The M's are 1-9 versus the A's and five games over .500 versus the rest of baseball, including a 7-0 mark against the National League.

If the Mariners want to stay in this thing, they have to play ball with the A's. They don't have to beat the A's more than the A's beat the M's, but a bare minimum of .500 versus them the rest of the way would play enormously in the club's chances of truly making a run this summer.

2. Fate.

Fate rarely ever resides with the Seattle Mariners. Anytime something potentially positive can happen, something gets in the way, and often times it's the upper management.

We'll throw this one on fate, however, since the games are played on the field and things seem to work out far less for Seattle than any other club in baseball – even when they appear to make the right decisions on big-time players.

1. Billy Beane.

There will be a creative move made by the Oakland GM this season – maybe even two or three. The A's are already good enough to get hot – again – and run away with the West but imagine if they traded Barry Zito – and actually got better in the process.

Beane is as good a GM as there is in sports, and has the backing of the new ownership, even a bit more financially than was Steve Schott, the organization's previous majority share holder.

The M's have zero chance to keep up in that sense.

Advertisements

42 Responses to “Ten Reasons Why the M’s Will NOT Win the West”

  1. StandinPat said

    Another good write up Jason, although I liked the previous one better for obvious reasons. I honestly have to lean towards the optimistic side seeing how well the M’s have played over the past month. I agree Betancourt and Lopez could go into a tailspin, but neither one of them is really playing way over their head. No one on the M’s really is for that matter. Ichiro is on fire, but is he doing anything that anyone would think he wasnt capable of? Ibanez? Lopez? Putz and Soriano? All these guys are putting together great seasons, but not necessarily in the fluky sort of manner. I think the M’s need to upgrade atleast one SP and maybe two bullpen arms, and Snelling over Everett I think could improve the offense, but other than that is there a team in the West thats actually significantly better than the M’s? I dont see it.

  2. StandinPat said

    Although Rich Harden coming back for the A’s could mean trouble.

  3. The key is, can the club avoid a situation where four or five hitters are struggling at the same time?

    We’ve seen so much of that, a month isn’t enough to convince me that they won’t do it again.

  4. Goose said

    Ah yes Fate. Or the baseball gods as I refer to call it.

    They’ve been on an extended vacation. Probably enjoying the sun somewhere.

    But they’ll be back. They always are.

  5. StandinPat said

    The club has already gone through stretches where they had four or five hitters struggling and were slightly under five hundred while that was happening. One of those players, Ichiro, I really dont expect to go into any kind of slump over the rest of the season unless you consider 1-3 with a walk a slump. Reed, Beltre, and Sexson cant be much worse than they’ve been so far. Seems like the M’s have better odds of the offense staying at this level or even improving than they do of taking a step back. But thats just my opinion.

  6. SLIGHTLY?

    Try 7-10 games under .500 through about 45-50 games of the year. That’s TERRIBLE baseball.

    And they struggled ALL YEAR last year offensively.

  7. willmore2000 said

    Hitters will struggle, that is the MO of most major league hitters – streaks. Even the best, like Ichiro work in streaks. What makes a team that wins 90+ games and the division is one of a few things.

    1: luck, plain and simple. A team that’s supposed to win 82, catches some breaks, wins games it’s not supposed to, and boom, they win 90 games in a weak division and are playing in october.

    2. great hitting. And I mean fantastic. Preferrably, in a combination with a bit of #1. See Seattle Mariners and some Yankee teams.

    3. good pitching. Nothing great is necessary, but something that is good enough to buoy an average offensive staff when they are slumping. Ideally there will be an ace in there somewhere who can stop games. 2 or even 3 pitchers who can be solid #2 starters on most teams and anchored by either a veteran who knows how to eat innings and get ground balls, relying on defense. Or a wild strikeout machine just called up from the minors, who will alternate great performance with abismal, thus giving the team as much as it can expect from the veteran, when it all evens out in wins and losses.

    Finally, any team consisting of good pitching and average offense, which is what the Mariners aspire to, must have great defense, and say what you will, but the Mariners possess it. Halleluja to YuBet.

  8. Just because hitters already struggled, doesnt mean it’s not coming back.

    It’s a lot more likely that the M’s struggle offensively again than it is that they don’t.

  9. willmore2000 said

    Right, but there’s nothing that can be done about it. Short of bringing up Snelling, there really are no options, at least as far as I can see. We still might improve the pitching, by jumping the gun on Meche’s eventual decline and trading him for something and bringing up the young ‘uns. Livingston, Cruceta, Blackley, Nageotte, at least one of them can be a major league contributor, the trick is picking the right one. We’re not talking about being a #3 pitcher, a solid #4b would do just fine. And if we get Weaver, that expectation can be downgraded to a #5. Weaver does seem to be welcome in LA anymore, and with his contract, I would guess he can be got for very cheaply, and maybe even a prospect to boot, for taking that money off the books. What’s more, Weaver’s last 5 starts weren’t all that awful, #4b starter quality for sure. His last 5 starts: 4.00 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 9.2 H/9, 7.5 K/9. With our defense, in our ballpark, that’s a 3.3-3.5 ERA at the most. I heard some guys on the radio say that he had some mechanical tweaks that have produced this. And you know what, I believe !

    If Bavasi gets Weaver to Seattle and Pineiro and Meche out, I’ll be a very happy camper.

  10. willmore2000 said

    Oops, those stats didn’t include last night’s game. But the theory stands, his line last ngiht: 6 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 1BB, 7K.

    Weaver is onto something, and we better catch it 🙂

  11. willmore2000 said

    And now that I’ve read the sidebar, I have to comment on that too. I think Bavasi is reading my entries – Rohrbaugh promoted to AA.

    Ummm … Bill, how about a cozy job in the front office for yours trully ? I can be lazy, unproductive and if you play your cards right, I’ll bother you with trade ideas every day. I expect a salary in the 6-figure range, you can ask Jason for my contact info, he should have it somewhere.

    Speaking of which, I still didn’t get my books, Jason.

  12. When I get them, so will u. Can;t send ya books that I dont have.

    Re: Rohrbaugh… he’s gonna have issues in SA – he’s not ready… but Tui is the one that makes the least sense.

  13. willmore2000 said

    Ok, just making sure.

    I disagree on Rohrbaugh, but we’ll see. Tui, I fully agree with you. He has to develop his power first, and I don’t see how increasing his strikeouts against better competition will help him any. Then again, maybe the hitting coach in AA can see something that the other one didn’t, who knows ?

  14. The reason why you disagree is because all you are doing is looking at stats and box scores.

    Rohrbaugh isn't ready, and neither is Tui… both will struggle in the medium run at San Antonio.

    Rohrbaugh will find that the hitters in the Cal League just aren't very good this year, and apparently, Willmore, so will you.

    Go take a look at those rosters, even the all-star rosters, and then go look at the lineups that Wichita, Tulsa and Arkansas put out there every night.

    Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Mitch Maier and Chris Lubanski in the same lineup… Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Stewart, Chris Ianetta and Texas League home run leader Joe Koshansky — in the same lineup…

    How about Arkansas having Jospeh Aspito, Mike Eylward, Bobby Wilson, Greg Porter, Matt Brown and Brandon Wood in the same freaking lineup.

    In the Cal League, Inland had one of the top offenses, if that tells you anything.

    In the long term, Rorhbaugh has a chance to be fine, but the numbers in the Cal League only suggest two things…

    1) Rohrbuagh throws strikes with all of his pitches and..

    2) The hitters aren't that good, because his stuff isn't that good.

    The M's are just in the business of truly finding out what is really there in these young guys and the only way to find out is to push them hard and see how they handle it. It won't all be about numbers, just like with Adam Jones.

    The only mistakesthey made on the opening day rosters turned out to be Rob Johnson (offensively) and he wasn't really that bad.

  15. Weaver, Willmore?

    You realize that he’s been worse than Meche and almost as bad as Pineiro, and makes 8.5 mil?

  16. willmore2000 said

    That might all be true about Rohrbaugh, but if he’s not challenged at Inland, how can he develop ? He might not be ready, but there is no choice. I still think he has a good chance to succeed, because numbers that good rarely lie. If he had a mid-2 ERA, I might buy it, but he looks as good as the best the California league has to offer.

    Weaver is coming around, and his contract is why I want him; it will allow us not to waste any true prospects in getting him, and it’s not like we are strapped for cash. Weaver will be a perfect substitute for Meche and will give Bavasi the incentive to pull the trigger on a Meche trade.

    Weaver has been better in recent starts, just like Meche. However, while Meche has had the benefit of 5 gold-glove caliber defenders behind him, Weaver is pitching on a bottom-5 defensive team in the majors.

    Think about it, you might like the idea.

  17. He didnt pitch long enough in Inland to be challenged. He missed half of the first half with back problems.

    Weaver’s 8.5 mil is far too much to absorb for a bad pitcher. He has one or two good starts and you jump on him? Meche is better than Weaver.

  18. willmore2000 said

    Jason, did you get a chance to talk to Snelling today ?

    It seems like he’s swinging the bat better recently, how is he feeling with his knee ? Does he still wear a brace, and if so, when is it due to come off ?

  19. I did not talk to him today, but he is not wearing the big brace, just a support sleeve.

    He’s been working his tail off, no surprise, at getting things back in line.

    He’ll be in the big leagues by the deadline.

  20. willmore2000 said

    Great to hear. I’m rooting for him so bad. Such bad luck has got to be unbearable for him, but he keeps coming back. I love it. The guy has that je ne sais quoi that great competitors possess. Love it. Doyle Doyle Doyle !!!

  21. Scruffy Lefty said

    That is really good news for Snelling. I mean how could you not root for that guy

  22. kva15 said

    Jason,

    I think Weaver would be a good addition to the Mariners — as long as it’s Jared. Don’t think the Angels are going to part with him, though.

  23. Jerry said

    Jason,

    Gil Meche is better than Jeff Weaver?

    Not even close.

    Meche may be doing well right now, and Weaver may be struggling a bit. But Weaver has had a much much better career than Meche. Weaver is a good pitcher who occasionally struggles. Meche is a bad pitcher who occasionally does well. Weaver is much better. Its not particularly close.

    I like the idea of adding Weaver. He has traditionally done pretty well in big parks. Moving from the Angels (one of the worst defensive teams in MLB) to the M´s (very good defense and good pitchers park) I would expect him to rebound.

    The money is an issue, but I think that it could make sense as one of a series of moves. For instance:

    -M’s trade Everett to LAA for Weaver
    -M’s trade Meche to a contender for prospects

    That, right there, is a push as far as money is concerned.

    But more importantly, the M’s would be ditching a player who they don’t need and who they have to ditch before his option vests (Everett), they would be helping their farm system, and getting back a pitcher who actually has some upside in Weaver.

    I would bet money that he would do much better in Seattle. But even if he doesn’t, there is no long-term commitment.

  24. right now. Meche is better than Jeff Weaver.

    Who cares about last year and nexr year doesnt count until next year is NOW.

    Weaver sucks, is making 8.5 mil and pitching like Joel Pineiro.

  25. StandinPat said

    Um the last two years in a huge pitchers park, in the NL, Weaver put up ERA’s of 4.01 and 4.22. Thats not exactly what I would call good. Meche’s 4.10 this year is much better than that when park and league adjusted I’d imagine. I dont mind the idea of trading Meche while his stock is high and finding some cheap avg mlb filler for the meantime, but lets not confuse things and call Weaver anything more than slightly better than poor.

    Replacing Piniero whith Weaver however, might be something worth looking into.

  26. eponymous coward said

    Why does Anaheim need a bad DH who will vest an option if they play him? Wouldn’t it just be better to eat Jeff’s contract and call up Jared?

    And, oh, yeah: Weaver in June- 3.70 ERA. Everett: .573 OPS in June. Who’s the crappy player, again?

  27. eponymous coward said

    Oh, and Weaver’s ERAs by month: 7.48, 5.97, 3.70. Everett’s OPS’s by month: .782, .725, .573.

    There’s no freaking way I’m taking Carl Everett in payment for Jeff Weaver if I’m Anaheim’s GM- especially if I can hold on to him for a month and either get back in the race or flip him for more than a decrepit DH if he continues to improve his pitching.

    And if he doesn’t, fine, DFA him and eat the salary. At least I won’t have the problem of Carl’s option.

  28. willmore2000 said

    Keeping Jeff over Jered is a very unpopular move in LA, and because of that, he can be had for peanuts. Especially so, since he has a big contractand seemingly bad performance this year. If we give LA Everett and a mid-level prospects like Saunders, we can grab Weaver and a prospct from LA.

    LA has a worse offense than Seattle, if you can believe that. They have a team line of .255/.314/.394. By comparison, we are at .271/.327/.419. The Angels are desperate and have the mentality of the West Coast Yankees with their new owner and will be looking to buy at the deadline. They want to win, and they think that they will have a far better chance of doing so with Jered than with Jeff.

    Jeff in Seattle can be a #4 starter at the worst.

    If we replace Meche and Pineiro with Weaver and a minor league arm, it’s pretty much a push, and maybe better.

  29. Peanuts still come with a hefty price tag. If you think for one second that LAA is going to pay a division rival to take one of their players, you need to watch more Hogans Heroes.

    It’s not going to happen, and shouldn’t.

    Jeff freakin’ Weaver. Willmore, go look for a GOOD pitcher to go get, preferably one that would NOT immediately become the second highest paid pitcher on the club.

  30. Jerry said

    The whole Carl Everett part of it was to offset the price. Everett is due just under half what Weaver makes.

    From the Angels POV, they would be deciding between wasting 9 million versus wasting 4 million (well, pro-rated amounts of the above contracts).

    Plus, the Angels need offense, and currently demoted one of their best starters (Jarrod Weaver) because they don’t have room for him in the rotation. Plus, making a move like that would clear some $$$ for the Angels to go after an impact offensive player. There are rumors flying around that they will do just that.

    Perhaps the Angels could get a better deal for Weaver than Everett. Or perhaps they could get an equal deal from a club that isn’t in the division.

    But Weaver is MUCH better than Meche. He is a guy who is a great bet to pitch every fifth day with an ERA around 4.0. He is well suited to Safeco and the M’s defense would help.

    I really think that Meche is playing over his head right now, and Weaver has been unlucky. If you look at both players DIPS ERA and ERC, compared with their actual ERA, the stats back that up.

    Moreover, Weaver has a much better history of performance than Meche. I think that both of these players will regress back to the mean. For Meche, that is bad. For Weaver, that is good. And this does not include consideration of how much a move to the M’s will help any pitcher.

    I am not saying that Weaver is awesome or anything. He is basically a righty Washburn.

    But now is a good time to buy low on Weaver, and sell high on Meche.

    Over the course of the rest of the season, Weaver is likely to be just as good as Meche. Plus, if the M’s play their cards right, they would get a shiny prospect or two out of the deal.

  31. Jerry said

    Jason,

    I don’t think that it is a question of whether Weaver is the best pitcher we could get. It is a question of who is the best pitcher we could get for nothing. Weaver would cost pretty close to nothing.

    I understand the financial side of this. But if you put it in perspective, it is pretty minor.

    Weaver 8.5 mil
    Everett 4 mil

    Difference: 4.5 mil

    Pro-rated difference: 2.25 mil

    That is chump change.

    Even if the M’s agreed to take on all of Weavers salary, in a deal similar to the one the Red Sox just made for Jason Johnson, you are still only adding 4 million to the payroll.

    Trading Meche to a contender (like the Mets) for a prospect would result in exactly the same math as above.

    The money shouldn’t be an impediment for a team like the M’s.

  32. 4.5 mil is not chump change to the M’s.

    And Everett for Weaver?

    Why in heck would anaheim?

    McPherson and Rivera give them more than Everett could, for a lot less cash.

    Weaver is guaranteed 8.325 mil, with 300k incentives for 200 innings and another for 32 starts.

    So roughly 9 mil.

    He’s been TERRIBLE all season, with fewer exceptions than Joel Pineiro. Why go get him and pay him 4.5 mil?

    Especially when he’s not an upgrade. He’s far from some certain upgrade over Meche or Pineiro and just because historically he’s a better pitcher than either, doesn’t mean he is right now. Because he’s not.

    And it’s a dream to think the M’s could make an Everett-Weaver trade like that.

    It would cost the M’s something cheaper, which makes Weaver more expensive.

    There’s no match there at all. Weaver sucks and his best-case scenario is as a slight upgrade over Pineiro’s 5.34 ERA. Weaver’s only significant advantage over Joel is K rates.

    And the parks and defenses have not given Joel anything over Weaver. Joel’s FIP is 5.01 to Weaver’s 5.11.

    Now if you were dealing Joel and Everett for Weaver, it would make a little sense from the M’s standpoint. Even money, a chance at a better starter.

    But not for a negative hit to the payroll. No way.

    And the Halos would never go for it.

  33. –The money shouldn’t be an impediment for a team like the M’s.–

    Shouldn’t, but fact remains, it is.

  34. StandinPat said

    Jerry,

    Weaver is not a good pitcher. He’s been an average pitcher over his career, and has had only one good year, that coming in ’02. Piniero by comparison had 3 straight dynamite years, and even with his recent struggles still owns a career ERA that is about .2 runs lower than Weavers’. You might argue that Joel is just done and that Weaver has higher odds of having the better year this year or next, but you cant say Weaver is anything better than average.

  35. eponymous coward said

    Now if you were dealing Joel and Everett for Weaver, it would make a little sense from the M’s standpoint. Even money, a chance at a better starter.

    Right, but it’d be freakin’ insane for the Angels, since Carl’s OPS right now (.711) is about where Anaheim’s team OPS is (.708). Jerry, explain to me how does trading craptastic pitchers, plus adding another bad hitter to a bad hitting team, with an option that vests in 200 PAs HELP your team? I would argue you could stand pat and do just as well, plus not get socked for C. Rex’s option.

  36. It sure would be insane.

    If it wasnt an division rival, I think this might be something that either team would consider, but not the M’s in any scenario. Add payroll but get a pitcher thats been worse than the two worst starters you have?

  37. Jerry said

    You guys seem to be missing my points, so let me just sum up my thoughts on this whole thing:

    -I am not saying that Weaver is awesome. He is better than average though, with the exception of this year. Any pitcher who throws 200 IPs with an ERA around 4.0 is a commodity. Thats just a fact.

    -the whole point of getting Weaver would be based on the assumption that he would return to his ‘normal’ production with a change of scenery. That is what happened when he left the Yankees. Perhaps moving to another club with a laid-back atmosphere, a big park, and a good defense would help. Again, he has done this in the past when he went to the Dodgers. None of this is unlikely or unprecedented.

    -I am not saying that Weaver would be a 100 percent sure-fire upgrade. But he might turn out to be. Remember, about 6 months ago, most fans posting on M’s blogs thought that he would be a decent free agent acquisition for the M’s. I don’t think that this half season in Anahiem is enough to totally give up on him.

    -I am not saying that the Angels would want Everett. Really, who would. The guy has nearly zero value. The whole idea of sending Everett is to offset the money Weaver would be due. I don’t know why people can’t seem to grasp this concept. Remember the Cirrillo trade (the one where we ditched him, I mean)? Do you think that the m’s wanted Wiki or any of the other crap we got in return? No. It was to offset all the salary that was due Cirrillo. To unload a bad contract, you often have to take on a bad contract.

    Related to the above, the Angels need offensive help more than they need pitching right now, so if they are going to take on crap contracts for the rest of hte year, I am sure that they would prefer a bat. Especially the lefthanded variety with some pop.

    This is the type of risk that I don’t mind seeing the M’s make. If it doesn’t work out, no biggie. It doesn’t effect the 2007 payroll at all. If it does work out, it could make the team significantly better.

    It is a low-risk, high-reward move.

    Here are Jeff Weavers’ numbers over the past two years:

    4.1 ERA, 6.28 K/9, 2.97 K/9, 1.23 WHIP

    That is a valuable pitcher.

    If you look closely at Weaver’s stats, his peripheral numbers are almost exactly the same this year as they were when he played for the Dodgers. The K rate, the BB rate, even the HR rate. The only difference is BAA.

    I really think that if you move Weaver from the Angels, with their horrible defense, and stick him in Safeco with the M’s D, that he is a good candidate to return to his Dodgers numbers. Or at least something close to that.

    If the M’s replace Joel with Weaver, they will be better. We know that Joel sucks for the M’s. He has been remarkably consistent in his sucktitude.

    Jason might be right about the M’s not wanting to take on any payroll. But I would imagine that they are going to do better at the box office now that they are winning than their projections might have predicted.

    Plus, Weaver is an ex-Dodger, which means that he has a 50/50 chance of being a Mariner in the next two years.

  38. Sakata said

    Weaver has been better in recent starts, just like Meche. However, while Meche has had the benefit of 5 gold-glove caliber defenders behind him, Weaver is pitching on a bottom-5 defensive team in the majors.

    The Angels’ team DER (at .716, which is sizeably above league average) is better than the Mariners’ (.707, which is only slightly above league average)…

    I would imagine that they are going to do better at the box office now that they are winning than their projections might have predicted.

    That is highly unlikely, as a team’s Ticket Sales are most dependant on its performance the previous season. Anything during the current season, aside from actually reaching the Playoffs (which still doesn’t really affect regular season sales), does little in comparison.

  39. That’s not true, Sakata.

    The M’s get more than a third of their attendance from day of game sales… winning breeds a lot of tickets sold. Ask the 95 club.

  40. eponymous coward said

    I am not saying that the Angels would want Everett. Really, who would. The guy has nearly zero value. The whole idea of sending Everett is to offset the money Weaver would be due. I don’t know why people can’t seem to grasp this concept. Remember the Cirrillo trade (the one where we ditched him, I mean)? Do you think that the m’s wanted Wiki or any of the other crap we got in return? No. It was to offset all the salary that was due Cirrillo. To unload a bad contract, you often have to take on a bad contract.

    Cirillo was due money in 2004 when he was traded in 2003, which is why we won the Kevin Jarvis sweepstakes. Weaver isn’t due money in 2007, but Everett might be if his option vests. Why should the Angels risk being on the hook for Everett’s 2007 salary?

    Also, it doesn’t fully offset the money, and the Angels would probably rather get a B prospect who wouldn’t even cost them a 40 man roster spot or risk vesting an option, since that way, they can stick Jered Weaver in the rotation when Jeff comes off. In addition, you missed my point that Jeff Weaver’s pitching better as the season’s progressed- so the idea that a contender desperate for a starter might take him for a B prospect come July 31st isn’t ludicrous.

    I never understand why people are only willing to evaluate these “Piñeiro and Everett for Pujols” trades from the aspect of their GM, not the other team’s GM. Trades need to make sense for everyone. Everett and Piñeiro have essentially, negative trade value- guys like Sele and Lawton (who are just as good) are waiver wire fodder and you won’t be on the hook for $millions.

  41. dnc said

    “But he might turn out to be. Remember, about 6 months ago, most fans posting on M’s blogs thought that he would be a decent free agent acquisition for the M’s.”

    And I tried telling those people then that they were wrong.

    Weaver is far from above average – he’s below average, and incredibly overpaid. Dealing for him would maybe give you a 50-50 shot at upgrading over Pineiro (and maybe 10% at upgrading over Meche, and I hate Meche). It doesn’t make much sense to me.

    Beyond that, I agree with eponymous coward (who is nice to see over here) that from Anaheim’s perspective the deal would make no sense.

    I’d rather give Cruceta a shot than add more crap like Weaver. The idea is to get rid of your craptastic high paid starters, not go get more of them.

  42. eknpdx said

    Weaver is one of those you never could get a handle on. He’s always the guy you see that is “suppose to do better.”

    I seriously doubt we would make big money trades. I think the Cirillo deal has scared Lincoln and Chucky off for good.

    I’m thinking the approach is fixing the weakest link that is “fixable.” Fixable meaning the players and areas where you can upgrade with minimal financial/roster/player development impact.

    Right now, I think Joel is the priority of weak links. Everett is probably second.

    So can we replace Joel with minimal financial impact? That’s the tough job of a GM. At the moment, with the little trade value we have, be prepared for eating Joel’s salary, and some mediocre trade – like Elarton from KC.

    Why bother?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

 
%d bloggers like this: