BA’s Top 10 Mariners Prospects
Posted by Jason A. Churchill on December 8, 2006
Baseball America released their top 10 Seattle Mariners prospects three days early, and already I’m getting numerous e-mails asking me what I think of the list.
Not that it matters, since prospecting young baseball talents is extremely tough, not to mention subjective.
Translation: He who rates, ranks and grades can choose what criteria is most important in a player and his future.
So, basically, everyone’s list would be different, most likely, even if everyone agreed how good each player was in each meaningful area of his game. Some take a prospects’ overall future potential (OFP) and weigh that versus risks and defensive positional value and grade the player accordingly.
Others much prefer those with more of a track record over those with little or no pro experience.
Anyways, here’s BA’s Top 10.
1. Adam Jones, CF
2. Jeff Clement, C
3. Brandon Morrow, RHP
4. Tony Butler, LHP
5. Ryan Feierabend, LHP
6. Wladimir Balentien, OF
7. Mark Lowe, RHP
8. Chris Tillman, RHP
9. Yung-Chi Chen, 2B
10. Eric O’Flaherty, LHP
Clearly, Baseball America chose some surefire big leaguers over those with higher ceiling, such as Balentien, Chen and O’Flaherty over Justin Thomas, Greg Halman, etc.
Jones and Clement are the clearcut top two, and Morrow is a solid three and I don’t see my rankings differing in the top 3. Butler and Feierabend are interchangable at four and five with Butler the higher ceiling and Feierabend a safer bet to contribute, since he’s so much closer to breaking through to the show.
Lowe is a tough grade, due to the injury, and I will grade him as if he’s not going to pitch at all in 2007, but return to 80-90% of what he was – just not until ’08. He’ll probably rank right about where BA has him at 7.
Tillman is ranked a notch or two low for my taste, but 8th is still very reasonable.
Chen and O’Flaherty belong nowhere in the top 10, however. Let me ask you all something, especially those who pay attention to the lower minors and international baseball scene.
Would you trade Yung-Chi Chen, who will never start regularly in the majors (and BA admits this), and a left-handed relief pitcher in O’Flaherty, for a couple of young, toolsy outfielders who have a decent chance to be more than just reserves or relief options?
Wouldn’t you rather take a 5-10% chance that Greg Halman develops into Jermaine Dye or Magglio Ordonez over Chen, who isn’t even a sure thing to be a useful big leaguer? I sure would, which is why Halman ranks higher than Chen in my rankings. Much higher.
O’Flaherty is a reliever. Need I say more? If there was a chance he’d return to starting and be good, it’d make a difference, but he’s not going to and wouldn’t be more than No. 5, so, again, he’s just a reliever. Not a setup man, not a closer — a reliever. Maybe a good one, but not one that makes a big impact on your club.
I’d much rather take the risk on a Kuo-hui Lo or Alex Liddi, or even Mario Martinez or Carlos Triunfel.
BA’s rankings are solid, I just disagree with the bottom of the list, and where Balentien was ranked– oh, and the fact that LaHair is ranked behind the bottom two prospects, also, although I wouldn’t place LaHair in my top 10 either. He still has a lot to prove.
Jim Callis is really good, but we need to remember that he did not rank these on his own, and BA in general leans heavily on what the clubs say about their own players.
Photos Credits –
Yung-Chi Chen: Max Waugh @ MaxWaugh.com
Wladimir Balentien: Seattle Mariners
prospectinsider.wordpress.com 
eknpdx said
Jason, just on your opinion, do you see any prospects in our system that have the potential to be a Top 5 of the Minor Leagues in the next 2 years?
Jason A. Churchill said
Eh, if Jones takes the same steps in 07 as he did in 06 and doesn’t exhaust his prospect status, then yeah…
Maybe Clement, too, if he explodes into what most think he really is offensively while holding his own behind the plate.
After that, Morrow, Butler, etc, aren’t premium prospects, at least not yet.
Willmore said
Can young kids like Halman explode in the next 2 years, or are they long-term prospects that we won’t see within the next 3-4 years, if at all ?
Jason A. Churchill said
You don’t give any room for anything, Willmore. Can they explode in the next two years or will it take more than 3. Wow, a whole year differential. Ha ha.
Sure they could explode, but I think Halman is the only one that could move quickly of the offensive group (Halman, Liddi, Peguero, Avila, Lo, etc). Butler and Tillman have a chance to see some split seasons, but probably not this year.
the Iceman Cometh said
Jason, do you now consider Balentien a surefire major leaguer? That is to say, do you believe he’s shown enough to predict that he’ll have an opportunity at some point with a club?
Jason A. Churchill said
He’s a big leaguer, but the jury is still way out on whether he’s an everyday guy, a platoon type or simply a bench bat.
larryl said
jason, quick question about the rule 5 kid. i thought i read that the m’s were at the 40 man limit. how did they add white?
Jason A. Churchill said
they’ll have to make room.
Slackman said
BA said that Tillman throws a plus slider. I’ve been hearing from everyone else that he throws a curveball. Which is true, the curveball or the slider? I would say Curveball but what do you think, Jason?
In addition, BA’s opening analysis says that Sexson, Beltre and Washburn haven’t lived up to their contracts. No arguments with Beltre or Wash-up and Burnout (Washburn) but do you think Sexson hasn’t lived up to his contract? He’s put up really good numbers the last two years.
Jason A. Churchill said
I KNOW it’s a curve ball.
But I’ll be talking to M’s minor league pitching coordinator next week, i’ll clarify all of this stuff.
Ralph said
It’s a little known rule. Teams are permitted to add players from their local area to the 40-man roster temporarily when necessary in an attempt to offset disastrous moves (signings, trades) made by the General Manager.
Eventually, a player will have to be removed to make room for White, but MLB makes allowances in these cases to prevent precipitous drops in season ticket sales, and other reactions that could negatively affect the influx of revenue to teams and MLB.
Jason A. Churchill said
haha… i like that rule.
Jerry said
Jason,
Here is how I would rate them:
1. Jones
2. Clement
3. Morrow
4. Butler
5. Feierabend
6. Tillman
7. Fruto
8. Lowe
9. Halman
10. Triunfel
Waddya think?
The only guys I am sketchy about are Fruto and Lowe, for all the reasons you listed above. Mario Martinez and Luis Valbuena just miss the cut.
Jason A. Churchill said
Triunfel wont be in my top 10, not until he sets foot on US soil and suits up and plays, at least.
So many things can go wrong when yer 16 years old and move thousands of miles away to play ball.
Right now, all he and Martinez are are physically gifted teenagers. Let’s see how they respond to the culture shock, as well as the upgrade in competition. They’ll both be profiled, and both likely in the 11-20 range on talent alone.
BTW, one scout that saw Tri this fall says he may very well end up as a very, very good, athletic third baseman, plus power bat and all, meaning he’s not necessarily some hot shot surefire shortstop, like Cabrera was when he came to the states at 17.
For me, relievers have to have a really good chance to be a dominant setup man or closer to be a top 10 type, even in a somewhat thin Mariners system.
Fruto isn’t in my top 10.
I love yer 10, though Jerry. Lots of upside, good mix of starting pitchers with power games and some offensive pop.
marinermutt said
Nice write-up. Off topic, but since Soriano is gone and Lowe’s season up in the air, do you think the M’s would have any interest in Riske who is a free agent?
Gookie said
… WHAT-ABOUT-RON VILLONE !!!? There may be a perfect fit there if he is able to stretch it out in Spring Training (if acquired) and become a starter once again. I am not sure on what his contract status is for this year, or if he even has a contract yet for this year yet.
Don Hawkinson said
Jason,
I’m really mystified over the trade of Soriano. We waited so long for this guy to develop and he comes into his own and finally put a season together. Recovering from the terrible accident ….everyone loved the guy. 8th and 9th innings were no longer a time to bite your fingernails. Then, wham….he’s gone for ???? Couldn’t we have had just a little more patience? Your thoughts …..
Don
Jason A. Churchill said
The M’s have already spoken to Riske’s agent, so yeah.
And yes, Don, the Soriano trade is crap. It’s a stand-alone fireable offense if you ask me. In a day and age when good relievers, let alone great setup guys and potentially plus closers, are going for 4-8 million a year, the M’s get a health risk of the league’s 3 billion No. 5 starters.
marinerswinws said
We need a good starting pitcher thats all im going to say.
Gookie said
runelvys hernandez?
Goose said
I think the word good disqualifies Hernandez.
Then again, so does the words major league starting pitcher.
Baseballistic said
Cubs sign Marquis to a 3-year deal. What the heck is Jim Hendry thinking?
Jason A. Churchill said
Depends on what kind of cash Marquis got. If it’s for what I heard he was close to signing for, it’s not a good deal at all.
I heard 3/20 with innings incentives that can make it 24-26 mil.
That’s almost 7 mil guaranteed to a pitcher that posted a 6.02 ERA in 2006.
thr33niL said
Sorta unrelated but whats the word on this Sean White guy we got from Pitt? Would he even be considered a ‘prospect’ and hearing almost nothing about him, what does he throw (pitches, velocity, etc).
thr33niL said
Nevermind.
“Re: White
He’s not even interesting. He’s got a fastball with sinking action that tops out at about 91, but sits 87-89 typically. He used to be 93ish. He does induce a decent amount of ground balls but he allowed a .300 BAA last year and his K/9 was just 6.42.
I really don’t see the need for a rule 5′er like that. He’s not much help, at least not in the rotation, and if you were going to use him in the pen, why not use Sean Green instead? Or Fruto? Or Kahn? or James?”
Found it in the other thread.
Edman said
His velocity was up to 96 MPH in the AFL, that’s why they traded for White. It’s been posted on several sites.
larryl said
i’ve been expecting the m’s to non-tender piniero, and have been wondering why he is still on the roster. in light of marquis, i wonder if the m’s think he has value, perhaps in a trade or to fill in for soriano
StandinPat said
Some team might have a use for Piniero and therefore the M’s are holding onto him as a potential throw in on a trade, up until they have to tender him ofcourse, then his ass is gone(I hope).
M-Pops said
Jason, I was reading a Red Sox site today, “Over the Monster”, and ran across something I found to be very interesting. Some of the fans on that site are beginning to believe that the 51.1 mil. bid was just made to keep DiceK away from the Yankees.
In light of all the other tens of millions of dollars in additions the Red Sox have made coupled with the fact that Manny is not going anywhere, are the Sox really going to spend upwards of 110 mil. total on a guy who has not yet pitched in MLB?
If the Sox choose to lowball DiceK, do you think Boras lets him take a 5/50 or 6/60 after seeeing what Meche got and what Zito is going to make? What do you see DiceK signing for? Do you see him in Japan again next year? What happens to this guy? Your thoughts…?
tkballer said
Two things….JAC said earlier that there may be a minor leaguer thrown into the deal. Since Pittsburgh picked up White in the Rule V from Atlanta, and we traded for him almost immediately…could that have been the prospect that we were supposed to get?
Secondly…Rumor has it that Boras was willing to purchase Dice-K’s contract from Seibu if Boston didn’t pony up and pay him what they thought he was worth. Then, he’d hold his own free market for Dice-K’s services. Is this a legitimate rumor?
Jason A. Churchill said
White was not the prospect that was supposedly in the Sea-ATL deal. I heard from a third-party club official that the way it went down makes Seattle look even worse.
Apparently, Seattle was willing to offer Soriano up for Ramirez and one of three prospects; 3B Eric Campbell, who I seriously doubt ATL would give up in such a trade, Beau Jones, a lefty starting pitcher, or Brandon Jones, an outfielder.
Seattle wanted Campbell, Beau Jones or Brandon Jones, in that order. Atlanta immediately said no on Campbell, and then on Beau Jones.
Seattle then, again this is according to another team’s front office guy, but he knows the Bravos very well, asked for Joey Devine or Chuck James instead, and thats when the deal hit about an 8-hour snag.
When Seattle came back to Atlanta, the Braves were then unwilling to include any prospect, so the M’s then agreed to do the 1-for-1 swap.
Jason A. Churchill said
re: Matsuzaka, Boras
I think that’s actually very possible. 51.1 mil is a buttload of cash, and we already KNOW that the Red Sox tried to do a backdoor deal where Seibu would accept less than 51.1 for the rights to DM, but wind got out and the illegal transaction was never allowed to pass the idea stage.
Very few think Matsuzaka HAS to sign. Japanese owners are stingy and they want their cash from the posting fee, but with Matsuzaka, being a god of sorts in that country, sources from the NPB say Seibu’s official would not treat Matsuzaka badly, like, say, sending him to the minors so he can’t achieve free agent status and go wherever he wants a year from now.
NPB owners have threatened such in the past, but never with such a famous commodity. Japanese sources have told MLB officials that Seibu would almost certainly be “okay” with Boras buying out his free agency, but they’d obviously prefer to get the 51.1 mil.
But, and this is huge… they would also welcome Matsuzaka back in 2007, even after he basically cost them 51 million snaps.
Matsuzaka, however, and his camp, led by Scott Boras, of course, would prefer he only pitched in the US in 2007. Seibu isn’t going to allow any scenario where Matsuzaka gains free agency or posting status next winter, if he doesn’t pitch for them in ’07, and thats a big risk for Dm to take… Boras wouldn’t dare let him.
I think in the end, Boston either signs him, or Boras finds a way for him to become a free agent, which means DM would ultimately get more years (6 instead of 3?) and more annual salary (15+ per instead of 9-10?) in order for the buy-out to remain an option that makes sense financially for both player and agent.
Jason A. Churchill said
White has never thrown 96 consistently, which is why he’s a near-worthless trade acquisition. he didn’t even throw 96 with any regularity in the AFL.
One scout that saw him this fall said he’s probably going to overthrow now because he saw the radar gun.
White is best when he’s 90-91 and getting ground balls. When he tries to throw the ball thru the backstop, he’s a worse pitcher than Edman is a conversationalist. ( I love you Edman) His command goes even further south, as evidenced by his 11 walks in 17 innings in the AFL.
[Can you say, Deaf Mute?] Laugh, Edman, it’s a joke.
White’s command goes even further south, as evidenced by his 11 walks in 17 innings in the AFL, and he’s very unlikely to hold his velo in extended innings. In the AFL, he went 3.0, 4.0, 1.2, 4.0 and 4.1 innings.
Useful, maybe, but he wasn’t necessary at all.
Edman said
So, you’re saying you don’t value Brad Holman’s opinion, Jayson? And, that the front office should ignore recommendations from their scouts and coaches?
It’s not like he’s gonna bump anyone better off the 40 man roster.
Edman said
And really, must all things be necessary? I would suspect that Holman sees someone he can turn around. I’m assuming he’s not an idiot. And, I’m also assuming that if the gamble pays off, Holman thinks he’s capable of big returns.
Aggressive teams gamble for the high side. You can make a ton of safe moves…..that fill your roster with AAAA players…..they’re useful, but not in the rhelm of impact.
I don’t really know enough about him to know. And, I admit as much. I do know that if you only use stats for analysis, you’re destine for failure. It’s a weeding tool, but not what ultimately determines a player’s worth. That’s the purpose of your scouts and coaches. They need to do the best job they can to look at the physical factors to determine the validity of the stats. If they’re killing medicre or crappy pitcher, but struggling against the class of the league……I’d certainly have some question about their major league potential.
Jason A. Churchill said
It’s like owning a 1988 Honda Accord EX thats a decent car, no major problems and medium mileage and going out and buying a 1988 Toyota Camry – decent car, no major problems and medium mileage.
It’s like White was the COLOR car (The Camry) they wanted over the Green (Sean) or Blue Accord (Huber, Baek).
The acquisition isn’t anything to bitch about, not at all, a few hundy thousand is nothing, but the deal has a minimal impact on anything the big club does. So who gives a rats?
And sure, I value Holman’s opinion, of course. But he didn’t tell the front office that White was the savior or a surefire 33 start, 200-innings pitcher, either.
He told them the truth, which is about what I have been saying. It’s about what Dave said earlier this week. And it’s what you’ll see from him this spring, right before he’s offered back to the Braves.
Jason A. Churchill said
Edman, Holman wont be doing any turning around of White. White will be with Chaves all year, or he’ll be with the Braves org.
So much for that thought.
It’s just a non-deal.
Goose said
So lets say the Sox don’t sign DM, and Boras buys his rights and effectivly makes him a FA. Do you think the M’s will make an actual effort this time to sign him? Or is the attitude still gonna be the same?
Oly_Chris said
Jason, your post 31 is stunning! It illustrates to me how little leverage Bavasi has left. I hope he realizes that its about to get worse.
National writers are openly stating that Seattle got fleeced, sometimes citing confirming opinions from other MLB clubs. This blood in the water will not go unnoticed by other organizations.
In their place, what would be the motivation to offer Bavasi much value during trade negotiations? I’m sympathetic to the situation Bill Bavasi inherited and I know he has had restrictions that made his job harder, but realistically how can ownership leave him in place at this juncture? I don’t see how he can succeed.
Jason A. Churchill said
He was pushed into a hole by the circumstances, his bosses and their motivations, but he’s digging the hole deeper and deeper with his own shovel.
Knuckles said
JAC: Fuck Edman, fuck the Mariners. I’ve had enough. How anyone can truly excuse this abomination of an offseason is beyond me, be they fan or executive. Mediocrity is the salve for the wounds of the underachieving. Here’s your bigass, Costco sized tube, friend. Please use it in the proper location.
bellecaramella said
For Bavasi, the good young players are already on the major league team, which makes the farm system seem bereft (BA ranks Seattle 27th); yet ultimately he’s graded on the performance of the big league club, which is suffering the growing pains of young players.
I’d feel bad for the guy, but then I read posts like your #31. I feel like we’re the West Coast version of the Orioles.
Two questions, Jason: First, you say Bavasi was pushed into a hole by the circumstances, his bosses and their motivations. Can you be more specific about that, including who is doing the pushing and what are their motivations?
Second question has to do with hometown players. White, the kids we got for Jamie Moyer — does someone in the FO direct Bavasi to get players with Seattle roots? Ironic, considering White and the two guys we got in the Moyer trade won’t ever play here. What’s the rationale for acquiring these players when there seem to be nothing else to distinguish them? (And yeah, I know, if they valued homegrown guys so much they would have drafted Linecum last year.)
Edman said
Geez, Knuckles……I could reply in kind, but I won’t. Stick your nose into a conversation not involving you…..then rip me? You wanna cry in your beer, be my guest…you have tons of company. But, don’t lash out at me, because I refuse to hang a white flag, before the first shot is fired. Misery loves company, and you’ll find lots of it here.
And, Jason, you’re wrong……granted, if he makes the club, he’ll be working with Chavez….so what? Holman won’t be working with pitchers in Peoria during Spring Traning? Holman won’t pass on his observations to Chavez? You can do better than that, and you know it.
This is no worse than bringing in a NRI, except for a little cash and moving one player off the 40 man roster. Typically, 40th men on the roster don’t carry much chance of seeing the majors. Yes, it’s not an earth shattering move, NOBODY said it was. But, could there be even the slightest chance that Holman detected something he felt he could correct? Not at all possible? Not at all worth the risk?
Bitch about the Soriano-Ramirez trade all you want. It’s fair game. But, don’t roll this move into that same barrel of sour apples.
EVERYONE knows White is likely headed back to Atlanta, just like a majority of rule five kids. It’s a freaking non-issue that some are trying to roll into the Bavasi issue. They’re separate and it’s for the most part, meaningless. But, it doesn’t mean that Holman’s observations should be disregarded and go untested. Obviously, Holman is convinced enough, that he persuaded Bavasi to take a shot. And you, as well as me, KNOW they’d have taken in observations from other scouts to either confirm or deny Holman’s claim. They have a checks and balances system. So it’s NOT simply a case of Bavasi wanting to fuck over Seattle fans.
StandinPat said
Edman, your posts make me wish I was from a country with a 100% illiteracy rate.
Gookie said
Jason, will you ever start a FIRE BAVASI/ BOYCOTT THE MARINERS F/O Blog??????
cause id be the 1st to leave my thoughts
hey, we got fleeced…whats new?
3rd Watch said
Jason have you heard any trade speculation on J.Reed. It appeared that he was on his way out of town for an arm. If the M’s get a bag of balls and a box of Icy Hot, which I believe will happen, then we might just want him to keep him around for 200 AB’s and see what happens with our roster. Giving up players…and once top prospects is tough. Sometimes it takes a few good years before they are able to consistantly produce. I’m not saying that Reed will light it on fire but they could put him in a position to succeed and raise his trade value.
matt said
Hey Jason now that we officially know that we got fleeced, what do you think we could have gotton for Soriano? I mean if I were the braves I would have done a Devine,Ramirez trade in a heartbeat. Do you really think that Soriano’s trade value was really that low??
JasonAChurchill said
Bavasi is going to get his own write-up, yes. Will it be a hate-filled fire Bavasi post? No.
But close – just withoutt he hate.
JasonAChurchill said
Two questions, Jason: First, you say Bavasi was pushed into a hole by the circumstances, his bosses and their motivations. Can you be more specific about that, including who is doing the pushing and what are their motivations?
I’ve gone over that a lot here but the basics of it surround the suits’ (Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong, and everyone above them in the ownership group) desire to make money and shove off good PR vibes all over the city.
They want moves made that will make the team money, even though it would have smarter to start trying to get younger back in, say, 2002 or 2003. They wanted to keep winning 90+ games as long as they could so they could fill the seats with rera ends.
A GM doesn’t really have much of a chance to really build a team, even one that lost 99 games in 2004 and was clearly in need of a rebuild, when his bosses won’t allow it. They wanted, forced, and got the quick fixes in Wash, Sexson and Beltre.
But Bavasi hasn’t done anything impactful to help this team either. It’s time for Bavasi to leave Seattle, and maybe baseball altogether, at least as a major decision maker.
He’s failed TWICE. Big.
Second question has to do with hometown players. White, the kids we got for Jamie Moyer — does someone in the FO direct Bavasi to get players with Seattle roots? Ironic, considering White and the two guys we got in the Moyer trade won’t ever play here. What’s the rationale for acquiring these players when there seem to be nothing else to distinguish them? (And yeah, I know, if they valued homegrown guys so much they would have drafted Linecum last year.)
JasonAChurchill said
Second question has to do with hometown players. White, the kids we got for Jamie Moyer — does someone in the FO direct Bavasi to get players with Seattle roots? Ironic, considering White and the two guys we got in the Moyer trade won’t ever play here. What’s the rationale for acquiring these players when there seem to be nothing else to distinguish them? (And yeah, I know, if they valued homegrown guys so much they would have drafted Linecum last year.)
White is from Pullman and went to college here and Barb is from Juanita, but Baldwin’s only NW tie is thathe attended Oregon State… But no, I don’t think Bavasi is being ordered to bring in local kids, although I guarantee, if all else is equal, or close, he has those instructions.
Remember, Lincoln and company just wanna fill the seats… 66 wins, or 116. They don’t give a rats as long as the seats are filled. I don’t think they’d be lying if they told you they prefer to win, everyon prefers to win. But they do jack shit to prove it. Spending money is the LAZY way to try to do something good or great. It’s not the RIGHT way.
Edman said
StandinPat….way to stay on point.
These little drive-by snippets useless and counter productive. You have a right to not agree with me……but do more than be a punk and post that crap.
Edman said
Jason, perhaps you never noticed that Seattle has a tough time with WHERE it’s located? The Mariners travel more miles than any other team in baseball. There are players who just don’t want to be in the Northwest, so if they have a choice, as Free Agents do, they simply say, “No Thank You”
So, if you have a choice between player “A” and player “B”….one is from Florida, the other grew up in say, Everett……given that their talent levels are similar…..which one is the better bet to want to continue to stay with the team in the long-term?
To ignore that factor, is just bad business. Should it be the ultimate decision maker?…….No, talent is ALWAYS the tiebreaker. But, when they are similar….I’ll take the NW kid, everyday.
cujo said
Spending money isnt the lazy way it is just part of the way to becoming good.Making good decisions on the players your spending the money on is the most important part and it is very obvius this group has no clue!Its time for a change and if they have to tear it down and rebuild it so be it but it better not be with this group are one of these wiz kids it better be with someone who has been thru the grind either scouted for a while are have played .It isnt as simple as alot of us think and in this world first hand knowledge is king.So all of us fans of the mariners had better be prepared for a long hard season AGAIN and hopefully just hopefully we will get a change for the better who knows how to build a farm system and run it correctly instead of pushing players to levels they should not have been pushed to ..aka.clement and tui.
Edman said
LMFAO…..Jason, hindsight is 20/20, isn’t it.
Funny, you call Bavasi a failure for signing Washburn, Beltre and Sexson. Yet, I know that just a few short years ago, you yourself said Bavasi would be a failure if he didn’t come away with Beltre and either Sexson or Delgado.
Always easier to be the heckler in the crowd, who’s never had to swing at a pitch…..than the one who’s actually doing it.
I COULD go on about how I WARNED against signing Beltre. But you, and SEVERAL others who now haunt this board as key members, pounded me because I wanted to go with a safer, cheaper risk in Koskie. I got schooled that Beltre was young, and on the rise. My concerns that he wouldn’t be capable of repoducing those Big numbers from 2004, were barely given even the slighted amount of thought, that I could be right.
My point? Don’t you DARE pin this entirely on Bavasi, when YOU would have done the SAME move….and please, don’t tell me you wouldn’t have, because you were one of the leaders to sign Beltre. Bavasi gambled, and even YOU said he had to, that he NEEDED to show that the team was willing to spend money to WIN.
That said, I DO think Beltre will finally be the player we all were hoping to get, this coming season.
I wouldn’t lose a single minute of sleep, if we replaced Bavasi. It’s part of the life of being in baseball….you’re hired to be fired. But, I can’t stand the “SAFE” ability to change positions and rip the guy, for things YOU would have done the same.
Yes, he’s paid for results. And, sometimes, even the obvious moves don’t work out. If it was purely as simple as plugging in expected results…..there’d be no point to play games.
So….yes, Bavasi deserves to be fired…..but, if you weren’t ready to fire him at the end of the season…..then, barring a mental breakdown, you shouldn’t be willing to fire him, until….
A. ALL is moves are completed.
B. His moves PROVE to be a failure.
His moves aren’t failures, until PROVEN failures. If Ramirez wins 15 games and is a team leader in ERA, would if have been a bad move?
Hell, he’s not even done with the offseason, and you’re declaring war. It’s damn easy to be a critic, because you risk nothing. You’re job isn’t on the line if you are wrong. As you’ve demonstrated, you can back away from a position….change it, and all is good.
Bavasi CLEARLY has this season to turn it around. He’s got to show progress….and solid progress, to save his job. Personally, I doubt he worries too much about that, because he knows how it all works. And, he COULD be spending money, just like the Cubs, giving too much money just to show that he can spend money. But, right or wrong, Bavasi is trying to give Seattle long-term success in what he’s doing….not just quick fixes. He could have signed Schmidt (provided he ACTUALLY wanted to switch leagues) to a really bad contract….and people here would have ripped him for wasting money.
Repeating…..I don’t care if Bavasi is here or not. Don’t care if Lincoln and Armstrong were to leave (though, I would pay for the moving vans to get them out).
I care about the team we have. I was disheartened by the Soriano trade, but he can be replaced. I don’t really know what kind of offers Bavasi was getting, if any, for Soriano. But it’s clear, NOBODY offered an established #2 pitcher for him, or Bavasi would have jumped out of his shoes. If Soriano was as valuable as we biased M’s fans think he is….then there are many, many other GM’s who are just as bad as Bavasi, for letting Soriano get away, when all they had to do was offer something better than Ramirez.
I do KNOW one thing, the casual fan like us, simply don’t have even 20% of the data required to evaluate player worth. All ML teams have multitudes of people crunching stats, reading scouting reports, etc. That’s their job….24/7….year after year. We simply see the stuff on the surface. And, guys like Jason probably have additional 20% via their contacts. But they’re still lacking 60%.
You can’t undo the deal. You can try to lead an angry mob to Safeco Field, but don’t be surprised if the torches are lacking.
Ramirez is a Mariner now…..so, I’m going to root for him. His being here isn’t his fault…..so continuing to bash his is counter productive. I’m hoping Bavasi and company KNOW what we don’t. That’s what he’s paid for. He’s not here to please you and I with brilliant trades. He’s here to build a team…..and, he’s got less than a year to prove he can.
So, here’s to hoping he proves to everyone that he can……because, it’s all he has left.
And, before we string him up….lets see how the roster looks in March. He’s not done, by any means.
Jason A. Churchill said
Edman…
BAvasi failed because thats ALL HE GOT. The winter would have been a failure had he not signed two big bats, but that doesnt mean it was a good idea to do it in the grand scheme of things.
This is where the sits get involved. Bavasi had to do it. I dont hold Sexson and Beltre against him. Spiezio, Aurilia, Washburn, the Raffy trade… I do.
And Edman, if all you are going to do here is constantly disagree with everything everyone says, get lost.
And stop twisting my words. That’s not a request.
I’ve been a Bavasi supporter, and still am to an extent, but it’s clear that he cannot get the job done here. I still contend that maybe nobody can in the current environment of Lincoln, Armstrong and the deep hole they are in.
But that’s no reason to keep Bavasi beyond 2007.
And yeah, he has a few months to put together a good roster t save 2007.
But unless they gel like shoe inserts and win 95 games, there’s no evidence to support his return in 2008.
StandinPat said
See, your last post is the exact crap I’m talking about. You call out Jason, for his views on Bavasi and the Soriano trade, then go on to say the avg fan, meaning you doesnt have enough info to make as assessment of a players talent. newsflash Edman, Jason isnt an avg fan. He scouts players, watches most of them from a very young age, talks to other scouts and execs about such players and trades, ie the people that would have 100% of the info. So how the hell do you decide you know more than someone like that, but constantly state that no one else posting here can do the same? Thats simply ridiculous.
As far as the avg fan only having 20% of th info, well thats just flat wrong and shows how little you know about baseball. Yes there will always be some factors that the avg fans wont know about, results from physicals, exact details of medical reports, some small tweaks a player has made in his game. But other than that the avg fan has access to a wealth of info. From career major and minor league stats, scouting reports, articles by major and minor league reporters, talent evaluators posting on the web, career trends, age trends, all this stuff can be gathered on a player in a matter of minutes.
And again on the Soriano trade you seem to miss the point, something of a trend i think. Yeah we we rent gonna get a #2 for Soriano straight up. We prob wont get a real great player for Reed straight up either. Could we get a solid #3 or possibly a #2 for Soriano and Reed plus maybe a guy like Chen? Most likely. Would we miss the latter two guys? Prob not. Would anything they would bring back in a 1 for 1 trade be of significant value? Prob not. The point being Bavasi took a very valuable trade commodity and turned it into a #4 starter, not exactly a way to improve a team that only has one starter that can really be considered better than a #3, and he hasnt even really proven that he is going to give you that at his young age.
Mono said
What about Travis Blackley in all this? He says he feels better now than he did a few years ago when he was a top prospect. He’s matured and more focused than he ever was, and may I remind you, once likened to Jamie Moyer. And why is the organization spending so much time looking elsewhere rather than focusing on the talent that they already have?
StandinPat said
Because they really dont have that much talent, at least not in the high minors. If you take a look at some of the M’s top guys over the past couple of years, B-liv, Nags, and Travis, all of them struggled in their short call-ups, usage may have been an issue though, and then werent able to get back on track when sent back down to the minors. Besides that no of those guys were ever really touted as being TOR starters, but more back end or borderline reliever guys, and thats huge. Take a guy like Gil Meche who was a TOR prospect, now he never put it together but he was still a pretty good as a #4 or #5. Now you take a guy who projects as a #4, and he if doesnt put it together he has no value on a MLB roster what so ever. Travis pitched very well in AA coming of his injury, but he still has alot of question marks, and still has had zero success int he majors. For that reason, even a guy like Jake Woods is a safer bet for the rotation as he has had some MLB success and has shown he’s not gonna get knocked out of a game after 2 or 3 innings. Blackely, may very well contribute in the rotation in the future, but he def needs to start the year off at AAA, and if Bavasi’s job is on the line he isnt gonna put a huge ? like him into the starting rotation to begin the year.
marinermutt said
I guess I look at this whole trade with the context of what I’m seeing this winter of the cost for starting pitching. Really, Lilly at $10 million a year? I don’t even have to mention Meche and his huge contract. Padilla from Texas is an average pitcher and look at the $$$ he got. The numbers they are throwing out for Zito are unreal. The price of starting pitching this winter is astounding. And the distinction is starting pitching.
So in that context, getting a #3 or #4 in Ramirez for a good relief pitcher who has had more than his share of arm problems in the past might be the real cost in this winters market. Relief pitchers can be made, but getting someone to throw 200 innings and keep his ERA under 4.50 is very hard this winter.
I’m not here to say that Ramirez is going to have a great year or bomb, but at least last year when he was injured, they weren’t really arm related. So I guess I hold out hope that he can be an average or better pitcher for us. Only time will tell for sure.
Also, Jason, any thought on the M’s keeping Pinero at a very reduced rate as a setup man. He did seem to dial it up in pitch speed when he was moved to the pen and did pretty well. I thought the new CBA had something in it where you can cut salary much more than the past agreement.
Edman said
Again, StandinPat, you miss the point. You MAKE UP trade senarios, then go on about Bavasi not making them happen. Show me one recent case where another team took three pieces it may not need, so they could move a valuable piece. Another thing is that teams WON’T be trading much pitching. Why? Because, when $11 million a year gets you Gil Meche, or $1l million gets you Padilla……you’re not going to venture into the market. That’s why the Braves didn’t trade Hudson. He may be mediocre in Atlanta, but it’s reasonable when you see what crap pitchers are getting. Hudson certainly has more upside than anyone who’d replace him, sans Glavine, who’d already signed with the Mets.
How many #2 pitchers have you seen traded, lately? Or, even #3’s? Yet, you throw Soriano, Reed and Chen’s name into a basket with the belief that someone would want all those pieces.
Fact in point, few teams feel it’s a good deal to get three pieces, for one really good one. It’s about filling holes. Thus, a team must have a MATCH…both ways. Meaning, a team must have an excess pitcher they can afford to lose…..and have a need for Soriano, Reed and Chen. You go find a match….good luck.
As for Aurilia and Spiezio, I blame Gillick. Maybe not directly, but indirectly. HIS arrogance in regard to being able to sign Tejada is what lead to those two being in Seattle. Gillick had no back-up plan, nor did he have an alternate plan if he couldn’t. Bavasi was forced to trade Guillen, removing any back-up plan at shortstop. By the time Tejada had made his decision, virtually EVERY other option dried up. To blame Bavasi for trying to patch up the work of those before him, isn’t at all fair. I fault him for the contract he gave Speez….but that was the market. Blame Gillick and his staff for leaving Bavasi few options to clean up what he mucked up.
I appreciate alot about Gillick, but his vision is typically right now, and let the cards fall where they may. And, look at the result of every team after he realized he had better leave, before being asked to leave.
And, I’ll agree that it IS about Lincoln and to some extent, Armstrong. Where are those extra dollars that even the Royals can find to pay Meche? Why hasn’t the budget been bumped upward? If it has, why hasn’t it been made public?
And just WHERE did I say the Soriano trade was good? I don’t like it, either. But, I realize I could be wrong. None of us will know until we see Ramirez next year.
If common sense means I have to take the other side of an issue, then I will. It’s your site. If all you want your opinions mirrored back to you, be my guest.
I’m not the one throwing out little crap posts that attack the person, not the issue. I will gladly debate, that’s healthy, for both sides. Somewhere in the middle, lies the truth.
There are people who think similar to me….but, why should they bother to post, when your response is to shut up?
As for me saying I know more than Jason……go read again. I put myself in that 20%…..I put Jason in the 40%. But, as we’ve seen, especially at the Winter Meetings, while Jason’s information may be better, it wasn’t any better when it came to exacting the results. He can only repeat what he’s told. And, that’s all I expect. Even Gammons looks foolish alot, because many in baseball feel important, if they repeat information….no matter how bad it is. And, at the time, it may very well have been discussed….but it’s miles from the result.
Edman said
I’m dumbfounded that Pineiro is still on the roster. I DO fault Bavasi for that. He’s wasting space. How many chances does the guy get? Should have thrown in into the Soriano deal……and let the Braves deal with him….LOL.
Ron said
Is Barry Zito here yet? Get him, sign him do whatever it takes to get him here Vasi’. Mariners fans would love that no matter what it takes quit living the 2001 season.
slackman said
I would love to see Zito in an M’s uniform but if Gil Meche gets 11 million, I don’t think signing Zito would be worth it. I think it would be more about getting fans in the stands rather than winning. Would the M’s be able to be competitive in the future with the kind of money Zito supposedly wants? I don’t know. Sexson and Beltre haven’t changed the teams fortunes too much so I don’t see Zito having much more impact despite the fact that it would be a high profile free agent signing. Interesting debate.
As far as Pineiro is concerned, I think it’s been mentioned already that he could be useful to someone so I would try to get something (anything) for him rather than nothing.
Jerry said
I am trying to resist the urge to mock Edman’s crap again. Its tough.
Jason,
What would you like to see the M’s do at this point?
I am seeing very few options for contending in 2007. But, in all likelihood, the club is going to try to win regardless because so many heads are on the chopping block.
Have any predictions about what we might see in the next two months?
I, for one, am terrified.
matt said
Answer my question…#47 plz lol
Jason A. Churchill said
re: Matt
I think Adam LaRoche is a good value for Soriano and probably vice versa, especially if you believe Soriano can close effectively, which I do.
Does that help?
re: What would I like to see the M’s do now?
Fire Lincoln, Armstrong, Bavasi… re-assign Pelekoudas, pay Bob Fontaine twice the amount of any other Scouting/Player Development Director – to try to get him to stay, which he probably still wouldn’t, and hire a young, detail-oriented GM who won’t back down from the new CEO when it comes to his beliefs in the ways of building a baseball team. The player personnel department needs to be gutted out from GM to director of player development, skipping Fontaine, of course.
As far as players — really not much else to do. I don’t want Zito for 6 years and 15+ mil. I don’t want any other starter at all, for any amount of money, because they are simply more Washburn types, which clearly, the Mariners have enough of. I’d like to see them hold off on Thomson, too.
I think Richie Sexson’s trade value is the key here. He has some, but not enough to net a frontline starter, even if the M’s kicked in a reasonable amount of cash in the deal, perhaps up to 6 mil, or 3 mil per season remaining on Sexson’s contract, making him an 11 mil per year player.
Sexson+Reed+a prospect not named Jones and probably Clement, might be able to get the M’s one of two things;
1) A starting pitcher, established or not, that is fully capable of pitching well above average for 200 innings per season.
2) the necessary pieces to get the above, if they retireved a few attractive prospects/young players to send elsewhere.
That pitcher might be making some cash, too.
At this point, I’d focus on adding another bat so I can trade Sexson and re-focus on pitching. But they certainly need another starting pitcher. I just wouldn’t get one that is guaranteed huge dollars for more than 2-3 more years.
Allen said
While I am astounded at the amount teams are willing to pay for starting pitching, it is market value after all. If Lincoln/Bavasi don’t want to play then yes they will have more financial flexibility but at the cost of another mediocre team.
It seems overpaying is a necessity especially with no pitching prospects on the immediate horizon.
If I am Bavasi I would rather go down making aggressive moves than signing marginal players and hoping for a miracle.
Gookie said
Is the 2007 season a loss already? I dont get it. what the mariners front office is doing is making pittsburgh, and the devil rays look like geniouses.
Baseballistic said
I wouldn’t say that the 2007 is a loss unless the M’s finish worse than 78-84 and are last in the AL West. Any improvement is improvement and I think the M’s are still an 80-85 win team if Bavasi makes the right moves from here on out.
Side-note: just wondering what you think about the Matsuzaka negotiations being “stalled”, Jason. Is it Boras leaking that info to make the BoSox sweeten the deal or do you actually see Matsuzaka returning to Japan until 2008?
One other thing, if you had to guess right now, what would you say Felix Hernandez’s stat line looks like in 2007? What are his chances of being the “ace” we currently think the M’s don’t have?
Edman said
Mock, Jerry……really? Sounds kind of third gradish.
Goose said
Rosenthal is saying that the M’s may be close to signing Miguel Batista. He turned down a 3/24 offer from the Royals earlier. So I imagine he’ll ultimately get something like 3/30.
He’s 35 years old.
As Scotty would say “Hang on Lassie, it gets bumpy from here!”
Orlandu said
Ken Rosenthal tends to be pretty reliable, so I’m a bit worried about that.
Jerry said
If the M’s sign Batista…..
This could be the worst offseason in M’s history.
Batista is not worth anything near that much. He sucks. He is a #4 starter.
At the very least, the M’s recent idiocy hasn’t saddled them with bad long-term contracts. Batista at even 3/25 would be a worse contract than Washburn.
What the fuck is wrong with this team? What are they thinking?
Bavasi has suddenly become the stupidest GM in the league.
Edman said
I can’t really see that there’s any teeth to this rumor. Bavasi’s trade of Soriano was to bring back a pitcher under Mariner control that would potentially be part of the M’s future. If he was reluctant to pull the trigger on Schmidt, based on age vs. value…..then Batista REALLY doesn’t fit that mold.
I wasn’t happy with the Soriano deal, but I at least could find SOME logic in it. Batista on the other hand, makes ZERO sense at all. Thomson makes a ton more sense, for less money, and a shorter commitment length.
If he gives Batista a three year contract guaranteed, for ANY amount of money, then he should be fired.
Edman said
Jerry, rumors are just that. Take them with a grain of salt. They seldom go anywhere toward reality. Bavasi MAY have inquired about Batista, because it’s his job to look at all possibilities. And, he may have returned a phone call and even discussed it with his agent. But, that’s not making a serious effort.
Bavasi hasn’t become the stupidest GM because of a rumor. He becomes one, if he makes it reality.
Jerry said
Edman,
Read the article at Foxsports.com.
There are different flavors of rumors. This one has all the things you look for when evaluating things like this:
1. It is from a reliable source. Rosenthal has passed Peter Gammons or anyone at ESPN as the best baseball insider in the mainstream national media.
2. The article does not have any red-flag terms, like “the M’s could sign xxx” or “one possibility for the Mariners could be…” That types of wording reflects baseless rumors. Rosenthal says “Barring the emergence of a surprise bidder, free-agent right-hander Miguel Batista appears headed to the Mariners.” That sounds solid.
3. It makes sense. The M’s are clearly desperate. They just added a very unreliable starter, and clearly demonstrated that they are in panic mode with the Soriano trade. They don’t have pitchers who can throw a lot of innings. From the perspective of a team that has no plan, is short-sighted, and has dramatically lowered expectations, this deal makes sense.
I don’t see any reason to question this rumor. This is as solid as a rumor gets.
Hopefully the Royals, Mets or some other big-spender swoop in and save the M’s from their own idiocy.
cujo said
#73 Bavasi is suddenly becoming the stupidist gm in the league.When wasnt he considered that?
Salty Dog said
A Sexson+Reed+prospect deal to get an above average SP would make a ton of sense, if it could be done. That’s about the only way I see to get a SP that isn’t another Washburn/Batista/Ramirez/etc back of the rotation innings eater.
Edman said
I’ll wait to see it as a press release, first. You wanna bank on it, be my guest. I’ve learned not to believe that crap, no matter WHO prints it. You did read his disclaimer? …. “appears”…. meaning, he doesn’t REALLY know for sure. Most likely, he too, considers is source somewhat suspect. When he says that the Mariners “WILL” sign him, which means he’s confident in his sources…..I’ll believe him.
thr33niL said
I would rather see the Mariners tender Pineiro over signing Batista. Thats how bad this potential deal is. Batista gets the hell hit out of him and can’t strike anyone out. He sports a 1.50ish WHIP to go along with his stellar .288 BAA. He is a 4.5-5 ERA tossing turd and has no business getting 8+ million over 3 as a 36 year old.
This is far worse than dealing Soriano for a 26 year old questionmark that once upon a time was a good prospect. This is signing a crappy pitcher for premium money to have front row seats for his decline from bad to horrific.
Snave said
I haven’t paid much attention to what the Marlins have been saying or doing this winter. What would it take to get Dontrelle Willis from Florida? Do the Mariners have players the Marlins would be interested in? Sexson? Reed? Any prospect not named Jones? The Mariners have had a pretty gross winter so far, and acquiring a talent like Willis might go a long ways toward making it seem like less of a total loss.
Is there any team out there besides Baltimore that would be interested in Broussard?
Willmore said
On the bright side, when the Mariners are 10 games under .500 and out of contention at the deadline, they’ll have the experiences pitching that other teams will want, potentially netting us some nice prospects and getting the arms a test through the end of the season. Batista, Washburn, both might fetch a quality return, especially when paired with someone like Sexson or Ibanez. I pray (and I’m not even religious) for them to have good first halfs to increase their value.
JohnnyBeisbol said
Yea Willmore… im sure teams will be chomping at the big to trade for Batista and Washburn and their boatload of money they will be due…
Willmore said
They will, if they want to contend. And we’ll likely pick up some of the money, which is acceptable, depending on the return.
Goose said
Rosenthal says the deal is done, pending a physical. It’s a 3 year deal, no idea on the money yet.
I’m still guessing $30 million.
larryl said
just had surgery. taking two percocets and an oxycodine every four hours. don’t see what you guys are so upset about. batista – brilliant signing. ramirez – he’s a horse. white – rookie of the year. iraq – we’re picking up steam. gotta go. time for more meds. one question. why does that edman dude fight with everyone? chill man. it’s all good.
Jason A. Churchill said
Im hearing the Batista deal is for 3 years at about 8 mil per, and maybe with an option year that has a buyout.
Jason A. Churchill said
I have also heard that it could be for less than 24 mil GUARANTEED money — we’ll see by Thursday, if not sooner.
Goose said
Well it’s not as bad as I thought it was going to be.
So our 2007 rotation looks to be Felix,Batista,Washburn,Rameriz,Baek/Woods/Feirebend/ect.
Meh.
Jason A. Churchill said
How much better is this;
Hernandez
Washburn
Batista
Ramirez
Farm Winner
than this;
Moyer
Washburn
Hernandez
Meche
Pineiro
?
best case?
worst case?
Not at all?
Even?
Goose said
Felix 2007 Meche
Farm Winner
Goose said
Ok the greater than and lesser than signs ate my post. So…
Felix 2007 greater than Felix 2006(hopefully
Washburn equals Washburn
Batista better than Moyer
Rameriz lesser than Meche
Farm Winner greater than Pinero.
So it’s a little better. If Felix does not improve it’s about even.
Jason A. Churchill said
Im thinking…
Felix 07 over Felix 06
Washburn 07, slight edge over Wash 06, but marginal
Moyer better than Batista by a bit
Meche, Ramirez, same
Farm over Pineiro – NOT CLOSE
Overall – slight edge 2007. Too bad it cost them 11 million and Rafael Soriano to get a tad bit better.
Jason A. Churchill said
Too bad the offense is going to be the problem again.
Talkbaseball said
Hey Church, if we do sign Bautista, do you see us making a move for another pitcher? Wewould only adding $13(Guillen at 5 and Bautista at 8) million in pay roll. I thought we had somewhere in the neighborhood of 18-22 million without making any trades. If so what moves could you see us making.
Baseballistic said
I would like to see the M’s sign Shea Hillenbrand because I think he’d make an awesome platoon with Broussard. Do you see it happening, Jason?
JohnnyBeisbol said
I disagree…
Felix will be better..
Washburn will be the same…
Moyer is better than Ramirez
Meche better than Batista
Farm winner will be better than Pinhead
I just dont see an improvement… Moyer isnt as bad as u guys make him out to be nor is Meche… Both of them at least pitched well for portions of the season and had ERA in the 4.30-4.50 range for most of the year.. Lets see if Horacio and Miguel can pull that off in the AL…
Batista’s numbers from last year are bad, especially for an NL guy… he’s extremely hittable, he doesnt strike guys out, and he’s old…
This rotation doesnt do anything for me… At best its a push with last years which was terrible…
As for the offense.. i actually think it’s solid enough to win a division as long as:
1) Guillen is Guillen pre injury
2) Sexson doesnt hit below .200 for a couple months like he did last yr.
3) Beltre doesnt hit below .200 for a couple months like he did last yr.
4) Our young players get better
5) Ichiro shows some semblance that he is still capable of hitting .340+
Uncle Al said
If Batista comes in at near $8M, that brings your total payroll committed to $88M. Figure $7M more for Buyouts, Prorated Signing Bonuses, and the Contingency Fund which includes the 15 players on the 40 man roster, and there is a total of $95M committed in the 07′ Budget.
thr33niL said
This squad is going to finish last… again.
At least we can waive bye bye to some of the up front incompetence when this team isn’t up to snuff for a 4th straight year. With Guillen, H.Ramirez and Batista penciled in as our saviors, Safeco is going to be an empty place this summer.
Marinerman(Grant)Always said
The Mariners will be in the race in September.
Marinerman(Grant)Always said
Unless Bautista completely tanks in the second half…He will trounce Moyers numbers.
And Ramerez will outdo Meche for the same reason.
Our rotation in the second half of last season completely fell apart…everyone but Felix tanked.
As for Offense…unless we have two auto outs in the line up for the first two months…it will be better.
The pen suffers a setback..how big of one remains to be seen…to be fair though…Soriano only threw 16 innings after July…so we got a taste of his absence last year.
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Jerry said
The M’s are really going to need a pleasant suprise. Jess Foppert’s resurrection? Feierabend vastly exceeding expectations? Baek emerges as our 2nd best starter? Blackley with an amazing comeback?
For the M’s to not finish last for the forth consecutive year, they are going to need a huge boost from a few players. It would take a lot of best case scenarios, and very few worst case scenarios.
I just don’t see it.
I am looking into my crystal ball…..
…..I am seeing the M’s as sellers at the trade deadline….
3rd Watch said
I see Foppert getting a chance to throw some innings in the late innings. If he can harness his talent and overcome his arm injury he could be a plesant surprize.
Jason, you heard any off season news on Jesse?
Secondly…if you want to laugh then pull up the Seattle PI article written today. They speculate that Dan Haren is avaliable. It is really sad that the local media spins things in such a manner. It only leads to the disappointment or marginal M’s fans. Bavasi could never pull of such a deal with a club in our division without getting jacked up. I’m sure Billy Beane would check his phone and see that Bavasi was calling and begin to grin from ear to ear. This reporter needs to quit writing such crap it is bad for all and a waste of a tree.
Allen said
I am surprised the local media is not all over Bavasi and the front office for the stupid moves thus far. Does Bavasi really think his pitching staff will be better with two 4.50 ERA guys, a rule 5 pick and minus his best set-up man?
Our general fan base and local media are simply ignorant. Bavasi would be hung in Boston or New York.
Snave said
Re. #104, if there is any truth to something like what Hickey’s P-I article is saying, I sure as heck hope the Mariners are looking into it. Haren would probably the Mariners’ #1 or #2 starter, the way the pitching staff looks thus far… Heck, if Beane would take a package of Reed, Broussard and a prospect I would do that deal… but Beane would probably want more, and would probably end up getting more.
Then again, I would agree it is probably nothing more than speculation (or wishful thinking) on the part of Hickey, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the only time we ever read about Haren being available and the Mariners being interested.
Willmore said
Jason, the P-I is saying that Dan Haren is available. Do the Mariners have interest, and what would it cost ? He’s a legit #3 and on a good day, a #2.
Knuckles said
Two things:
1) The A’s would never deal straight up with a division rival, and
2) If they did, Beane would probably get Bavasi to include Lopez and Betancourt.
Trent said
I don’t have any doubt in my mind that Beane would deal within the division. He’s never shown any nervousness when it comes to making a trade with anyone, and considering that he’s dealing with Bavasi, he’d probably walk away with a monsterous package.
I think he’d be more inclined to deal Blanton than Haren though.
Salty Dog said
Could we get Blanton for Reed straight up?
Would we actually want Blanton?
FutureMsGm said
I would take Blanton as a back of the rotation arm for Reed any day of the week. That said I really doubt Reed alone is enough to get him.
What are everyone’s thoughts on Reed anyway? If all we can get from him is a sack of peanuts or some career minor leaguer than I’d rather keep him. What’s the harm in trying to give a once top prospect one more year in AAA to try to straighten things out? Even if he isn’t in the M’s future plans at the very least he could increase his trade value.
With the way this offseason has gone it’s not like we will be contenders next year anyway.
Adam said
107 – I think that is Hickey speculating.
And I really doubt Beane would deal Haren to a division rival.
But nevertheless, I’d love to snag Oakland’s best starter.
I’d give up Reed, Morrow, and Halman for him. No questions asked.
Willmore said
Matsuzaka appears to still be available.
Assuming several things:
1. Red Sox fail to sign him, which seem possible, considering the demands of Boras.
2. Boras either holds out D-Mat for a year or files a lawsuit against the MLB and the Japanese League, citing anti-trust violations etc. etc. Allowing for players to leave Japan before their time is up.
If 1 happens, then D-Mat is available either this year or next year, so why not hold out until we can get into the bidding for him ? What would you pay him ? Would 5/75 be wild ? I would go as high as 5/90, to be honest.
Thoughts ?
Adam said
If the Red Sox can’t sign him, Matsuzaka goes back to Japan. He is not available.
Jason A. Churchill said
MLB recently stated they would definitely NOT support and honor DM’s free agency in a buy-out scenario with Boras and Seibu.
warner28 said
Jason,
They say they will not honor it but their is a decent legal case that D-Kice could make to force MLBs hand.
The posting agreement was not collectively bargained like the draft therefore it is entirely possible that preventing D-Kice from coming to MLB and working violates anti-trust laws relating to the “right to work” and MLB’s anti-trust exemption is not absolute when it comes to labor.
Personnally I think he signs last minute but it is not over if he doesn’t.
Jason A. Churchill said
But, because NPB would ALSO not honor DM’s free agency, there is no legal way for Dm to be granted free agency.
wsm said
Apparently the Phillies figured it just be easier to pay the Rays to claim B-Liv for them.
Jason A. Churchill said
The Phils wanted to claim him, but they were so far behind TB in the pecking order… a lil cash is no biggee.
Gookie said
one by one… any players that the mariners have in the minors now will be leaving, claimed, hurt all year, killed in a a freak accident, or traded away for some chewin’ tobbacky…
( on the loss Livingston )
is dan evens a candidtate to take over for bavasi when he is fired?
Gookie said
oh, and im talkin’the cheap cheap longhorn crap..not the costly skoal !!!!!
Jason A. Churchill said
Re: Evans
He should not be and I doubt he would be. He’s a Bavasi guy and when Bavasi leaves, all those guys go with him. It’s a loyalty thing. Jon Boles, and unfortunately, Bob Fontaine, are gone as well.
jp17 said
What about Jim Na? Does he leave? Only interested because we went to school together.
Jason A. Churchill said
I wouldnt think so. Na isn’t a Bavasi buddy stystem guy. He’s been with the club since like 01. For those who don’t know, Jim Na is the club’s Director of Baseball Administration.
Goose said
Joel Pineiro has officially been non-tendered.
Nighthawk180 said
Could you give the reason the mariners put Livingston thru waivers considering they just nontendered Pineiro? Wouldnt they have opened a spot for him then? Not a big deal just wondering. One less bor starter.
jp17 said
Rejoice for the Pineiro non-tender….now they will resign him for 21% less than last year!!!
Odds that he does indeed resign with the M’s? I’m thinking pretty damn good.
Jason A. Churchill said
If someone asks me one more time why the M’s DFA’d Livingston, I’m gonna freak out.
Livingston’s CEILING has sunk to a No. 5 starter at best. So when the time came for them to make a decision on the 40-man, they chose to DFA Bobby.
They didn’t choose Joel over Livingston. They chose Jose Guillen over Livingston. You wouldn’t?
They only have so long to find room, and a team can’t officially non-tender a player until NOW, they couldn’t have done it a week ago – it doesn’t work that way. The probably made the decision on Pineiro six months ago.
Baseballistic said
Jason,
Just curious whether you think Boston will wind up signing Matsuzaka or not. The last reports say there’s “no progress” in the talks with Boras in LA, but some think it’s Boras working the Sox to get every last penny before accepting a deal at the last minute.
What do you think?
One other question: do you think the M’s will pursue any of the non-tendered players (excluding Pineiro)?
Thanks.
Allen said
Speaking of non-tenders Jason, who do think the M’s may be interested in if anyone? Zambrano, Reitsma…
marinerswinws said
We should try for Zambrano in IMO.
MMjohns195 said
At this point with these signings i’m ready just to watch tacoma baseball, this team continues to just spin its wheels, they won’t tear it down, but don’t want to do what it takes to win, i don’t see how anyone can really be a fan much longer i mean bautista gets 9 mil a year, it just frickin ridiculous
Goose said
If some bad signings and trades are enough to make a person quit being fan, then they weren’t much of a fan to begin with.
jp17 said
When did Zambrano have his second TJ surgery? Would he even be ready to pitch next year at any point?
d2ret said
Is the Oswalt for Ichiro deal still on the table? If Im Bavasi I make that deal. Heres why. Its exciting to have superstar position players that you get to see every day, but they will never have the impact that a stud pitcher like a Roy Oswalt will have on your club. Dominant starting pitching will always take you deeper in the playoffs and lead you to the promised land. Oswalt led the NL in ERA last year at 2.98 and has a career ERA of 3.05. It doesnt get much better than that, especially pitching in that little league park in Housten. Oh man, put him in Safeco field and what do you think will happen? Im thinking Cy Young. Now you have a legit ace at the top of the rotation and Felix a year or two away from being 1B. Not a bad start.
As for center field….
Please consider: start Jeremy Reed in center for the first three months and hit him leadoff.
d2ret said
Is the Oswalt for Ichiro deal still on the table? If Im Bavasi I make that deal. Heres why. Its exciting to have superstar position players playing every day, but they will never have the impact that a stud pitcher like a Roy Oswalt will have on your club. Dominant starting pitching will always be what leads you to the promised land. Just ask the Yankees what they were missing last year with the best lineup of all time. Detroit pitching put em to sleep. Oswalt led the NL in ERA last year at 2.98 and has a career ERA of 3.05. It doesnt get much better than that folks. And especially pitching in that little league park in Housten, oh man. Stick him in Safeco field and what do you think will happen? Im thinking Cy Young canidate. Now you have a legit ace at the top of the rotation and Felix a year or two away from being 1B. Not a bad start.
As for center field….
Please consider: start Jeremy Reed in center for the first three months and hit him leadoff. This gives the club a chance to have one last look at him, and with some real pressure and expectations to be a table setter right at the top. Make him know that this is his job, and if he faulters this time, dont think twice, just package and ship him, perhaps to Florida or wherever. The Adam Jones era begins. Hit him at the bottom of the order and move Betancourt up to leadoff.
I know management would never let this deal happen cause they depend on Ichiro for fanbase, but attendance showed last year that just Ichiro isnt gonna get people in the seats, people wanna see a contender, thats it.
By the way, im not as down on the Soriano for Ramirez deal as everybody else is. Im not saying we got fair value. Soriano had greater value if we could get the right package put together, but we settled on this deal and I think it will be interesting to see in a couple of years who got the better end of it. I think Ramirez has a chance to be a very good no.3 starter for Seattle and could win 14 games. If he is that, I’ll take it. Then again, Soriano could be an All-star closer for Atlanta in a couple years. Oh well 🙂
Last year before the overhaul anyhow. Lets just hope we can make it out of this regime with Felix, Lopez, Betancourt, Putz, Jones and Clement and we can start from there.
d2ret said
sorry, didnt mean to post two of the same messages, my screen didnt show the first until the second was already up. my bad
jp17 said
As if this team wasn’t lacking on base skills to begin with….putting Reed and YuBet at the top certainly won’t help.
I’d entertain thoughts of trading Ichiro for frontline pitching, but while I think leadoff hitters can be overrated, we don’t have anyone who inspires any confidence in me that they can be a productive leadoff hitter.
Reed nor YuBet have shown any ability to work the count, nor the ability to be good basestealers.
Beady Eyes said
I am firmly of the belief that something COULD be wrong with Raffy. Why else would Bavasi do that last minute desperation trade (just hypothesizing here).
I’m with another blogger (Dr. D) on Ramirez. I hate the trade, but if his ERA+ is around 100 or so, he’s definitely going to contribute.
I am of the belief the key to 2007 is our offense. Our bullpen is still better than most, our closer is a stud (as long as he can keep the production at 2006 levels) and our offense is now BETTER with Guillen in RF and Snelling as a contributor at DH and as a 4th OF.
I’ve seen too many teams (look at the A’s and Cards last year) get by with questionable starting rotations. Sure, the Cards have Carpenter and the A’s had Zito as consitent contributors. Haren started out badly last year and got better as the season progressed. Who’d have guessed that Jeff Weaver would have been a sure thing in St Louis?
I’m definitely NOT sugarcoating the moves Bavasi made. It’s downright absurd he couldn’t get more for Raffy but what’s done is done. I HOPE Bavasi redeems himself with a GOOD move around New Years. I am not holding my breath, but this can’t be all we do to improve this team. Not after that crap about hot seats that Howie sold us all.
I’m not ready to wave a white flag and give up, but my expectations are not as high as they were a few weeks ago 😦
Goose said
We just dealt Chris Snelling and Emilano Fruto to Washington for Jose Vidro.
Kill me now.
Goose said
For the Link
Adam said
Only if you kill me first…
Good heavens…
jp17 said
This must mean that an M’s middle/corner infielder is being dealt in a separate deal doesn’t it?
Of course of late Vidro’s line has resembled Lopez’ no power line…though Vidro was injured I guess.
Vidro says something about Seattle signing pitchers….can’t mean Batista can it?
Makes no sense on its own, and would have to involve other trades.
Seattle has always treated Lopez like a punk, so maybe this shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Ralph said
I really wish I were surprised.
Edman said
Treated him like a puck. Where did you pull that from?
Last I saw, Lopez EARNED every demotion he got. It’s not Hargroves duty to play him until his ears bleed.
It’s always been up to Lopez to prove he can play in the majors. Just as it is for every rookie.
Jason A. Churchill said
If Lopez is part of a larger deal that truly nets the M’s a worthy starting pitcher or MOTO bat, I’ll certainly live with losing Snelling, Fruto and Lopez to get it.
Scott said
Jason,
Please tell me that we are getting a starting pitcher as the other half of this deal. Rosenthal says Vidro will DH. I’m sorry I just don’t get it. I will never give up on being an M’s fan, but I am not excited for Spring Training right now at all.
jp17 said
Edman you would have open your mouth wouldn’t you.
First of all, I said punk. This isn’t hockey.
Second, did I mention anything at all about his demotions or did you pull that out of…hold on…I’m failing to see the difference between your ass and head, so this may take a minute….ah yes….your ass?
The M’s have publicly challenged Lopez like no other player. While Bloomquist wastes ABs he is praised. While Lopez couldn’t get a frickin’ cocktail he was blasted for many things.
To top it off the M’s reworked Lopez’ swing to take away the thing that made him a commodity…his power.
Then this deal….yeah the M’s PUNKED Lopez.
That being said….like JAC says….if this is the first of a few deals that land some great pitching I have no problem with it…but as of now on it’s own….it doesn’t look good.
3rd Watch said
Not sure if Lopez is going or maybe it is Beltre will be sent packing. I could see the M’s dealing Beltre and moving Lopez to third.
Really the deal that looks to go down will be moving Broussard and Vidro will DH. Vidro will look good as a number two hitter. He has good bat control and will make Ichiro much better in the lead off spot. Not sure if the M’s were content with Snellings K ratio and it now looks that Reed will be the fourth OF. Not sure what his AL spilts are but it better pan out for Bavasi. Taking on a big contract and an older player does not look too good. Plus we lost a B level arm in Fruto. Hope the young kids are ready to throw.
I will miss Snelling. I will really root for him with the Nats. He was the one guy that I really tuned into to see his AB’s. He has that great personality and seems to be well like. Best of luck Chris.
cujo said
Two young guys for a guy who used to be on the juice and has horrible knees.You are good bill real good .I guess lopez wasnt good enough are cheap enough you had to handcuff whoever replaces you next year also.Can someone please stop this madman?
Snave said
At first glance, I just don’t get this move at all, if as Rosenthal says, the M’s got Vidro so he can be a DH… He hasn’t had much power the last couple of years. He has averaged about 107 games played during the last three years. Starting in 2002, his OPS has gone from .868 to .866 to .821 to .763 to .744. His high OPS was in 2000, at .918. Looks to me like he is on the decline… He is a switch-hitter, and he has struck out about once per 9 at-bats in his career. His range may be declining, but he doesn’t commit many errors.
My guess is that the M’s picked him up so he can play 2B, which as others have already speculated could mean Lopez or Beltre might be moved.
I will also miss Snelling. His health was always a problem but I love the guy’s determination.
Willmore said
I hate Bavasi. There are not kinder words to describe my feelings. I feel a pure and vile hatred for him such that I have not felt before. He is single-handedly destroying the Mariners franchise by making stupid moves for the remote chance that he might save his job an extra season. He is not making this team better, he is doing the reverse – he is trading away any potential this team has and substituting it with over-the-hill veterans who will not be able to improve this deal to any significant degree. Vidro is not a bad player, in fact, when healthy, he is pretty damn good. But we are removing a player with potention – Lopez, who has admittedly struggled in the second half last season, but who is also just 23 next year. Vidro on the other hand will be 32. Vidro, and all-star caliber 2nd baseman in his prime posted a .220/.318/.278 line when he was 23. So why are we giving up on Lopez ? But if only Lopez were enough, we are also getting rid of Chris Snelling, like he’s nothing. Snelling has potential pouring out of every orifice of his body. He was often injured, it is true, but a healthy Chris Snelling was pretty much the only way we could have been successful next season. Chris had a healthy winter for the first time in I don’t know how many years. No surgeries, nothing, just rest. Snelling could have come back and been a contributing member of the team, and probably a starter within a month.
Now, we are building the next San Francisco Giants without Bonds – an old team with hardly a farm system to speak of that has nothing but losing on its schedule for the next decade. I feel sick I’m so mad at Bavasi.
No more excuses, Lincoln, Armstrong, Bavasi, whoever, I don’t care. This has sealed the deal for me, I will not attend a single game at Safeco while that bunch is in charge.
Brian said
Jason, I’ve been a big Jeff Clement fan this far. I realize he was promoted very fast last year after surgery, and sent to Hawaii to get some extra swings…. any concerns about the .180 average he posted in Hawaii?
Baseballistic said
Vidro to the M’s for Snelling — yet another horrible deal by Bavasi.
Jerry said
Jason,
I am wondering if you have any comments or inside information about this deal.
That trade makes absolutely zero sense. There is absolutely no rationale behind it.
The M’s just trade two good, cheap players for an expensive, injury prone, declining player who doesn’t even sorta fit any possible need for the club.
Its not just a stupid trade. It is inexplicable. At least the Soriano deal could be rationalized as filling a need the club has. This…..WTF?
I am so pissed that I can’t see straight.
I just want to know what the fuck is going though Bavasi’s head right now.
There must be more deals coming. Because this makes no sense at all.
Edman said
Agreed, Jason. I won’t be happy unless this somehow leads to a starting pitcher.
I haven’t really done a complete inventory of who needs what, but there seems to be a big shortage of secondbasemen at the moment.
For instance, I’d certainly have no problem moving Lopez to LA for Penny.
The Twins suffered at secondbase last year. I’d have to believe they’d LOVE to have Lopez. The question is….would they be willing to send one of their young pitching studs? I’ve not really looked at their minor league system for a while, but I do believe they have a couple of pitchers who are good enough to be in the majors, but they have no roster space.
There are quite a number of teams looking to upgrade at second. And, the only way this trade makes sense is if Lopez is going to bring back a pitcher…..and a good one.
Iain said
Correct me if I’m wrong, but it makes no difference with regards to this trade who or what they get from Lopez. If you’re looking for a second basemen, there are available guys on the market for a fraction of the cost, and under NO CIRCUMSTANCES DOES IT JUSTIFY DROPPING SNELLING AND FRUTO for Vidro. Vidro’s a piece.
I’m with Willmore and Jerry. I am sick with rage. They could get Peavy for Lopez and it doesn’t make this a better – or a necessary – trade.
To hell with Bavasi. I hope he rots.
Jason A. Churchill said
Im not justifying the trade in and of itself, Iain. Re-read the comment.
This sucks even worse, BTW.
From AP –
“According to the person familiar with the deal, the Mariners have agreed to add a vesting option for 2009 to Vidro’s contract. If the option doesn’t become guaranteed, Vidro would get a $500,000 payment.”
Jerry said
Edman,
You should try doing 2 minutes of research before posting:
“I haven’t really done a complete inventory of who needs what, but there seems to be a big shortage of secondbasemen at the moment.”
Ah, you mean, besides Mark Loretta and Ronnie Belliard, and Marcus Giles, all three of whom are better than Vidro.
Why would other teams be waiting for Lopez? Second base is the one position where there are SEVERAL good players.
The Dodgers have Jeff Kent. The Twins have Luis Castillo. Both are better players than Lopez.
Finally, the one thing that we do know for sure is that Vidro can’t play 2B anymore. He is broken down. He can’t stay on the field, and when he does play, he sucks.
The M’s just traded quality young players for a washed-up middle infielder who can no longer play 2B. He is either going to be the new DH or the new 1Bman.
Either way, it is a stupid move.
Think before you post.
JohnnyBeisbol said
Terrible… it hurts cause Bavasi is selling the players the fans actually like… Soriano, Snelling, Fruto, possibly Lopez…
These are guys who actually have support from the fan base… guys we go to the ballpark to see… guys who represent that maybe the future is bright…
I swear if the next deal has Lopez in it… it better be bringing back Bonderman or another legit TOR guy… I dont wanna see Hudson or some declining pitcher like that…. and I better not see Lopez + Jones/Clement for anyone other than Johan Santana
Knuckles said
Heh. Jerry just told Edman to think before he posted.
Edman said
Yeah, pretty stupid of me to think that there might be a rather big trade value in Lopez. I mean, who could find value in a young player on his rise, making minimum wage, and already made an All-Star appearance. Who the hell would want that. You could have Lorretta, Giles or Belliard. I’m sure that they’ll want to sign cheap.
And, LA couldn’t move Kent to Thirdbase, which he should have done three years ago?
I did forget about Castilla in Minnesota.
Oh, and Lopez can still play shortstop…..but who’d even consider that?
Ms Fan said
JAC,
Is this one of those trades that has a domino effect. In past years Bavasi always says he had numerous trades in places, but all relied on the first which never happened. Is this one of those trades, because by itself it does not make sense. Or is it the starting point of other trades to come. I heard since ATL did not tender giles, they need a good cheap 2nd baseman. Lopez?? What about a lopez reed(so they can trade jones, because they are trying to cut salary) and someone else for laroche and hudson. Maybe spark up that SEA/SF/ATL trade. Does they trade for Vidro mean that Lopez is on the block. The M’s are stacked with infielders in the farm system, maybe this makes lopez expendable.
Iain said
Edman,
As a long time reader, I have to get this question off my chest:
Did an angel appear to you in a vision and ask you to dedicate your life to being a petty-minded D-Bag? Because sometimes it seems that way…
And now is not the time.
I can honestly say my life would be significantly better right now if I weren’t a Mariners fan.
Sorry about misinterpreting your post, Jason.
JohnnyBeisbol said
The M’s are stacked with low ceiling infielders in the minors… there isnt a prospect above A ball in the system who projects to be better than a backup middle infielder on the ML team..
Edman said
Me petty? Sure, I’m the only one.
Ms Fan said
165
Thats funny because BA just ranked a 2B in the top ten in our farm system
9. Yung-Chi Chen, 2B.
HMMM, ever heard of Garciapara or Tui?? Guess those guys just suck and will never amount to anything.
Iain, who needs you as an Ms fan? If you hate it so much, then pick a different team. No one is forcing you to be an Ms fan. Maybe the only petty-minded D-Bag is yourself. Do us all a favor and go jump off a bridge.
Jason A. Churchill said
It could be a domino thing, and it better be, because using Vidro at DH regularly is a worse idea than giving Batista more than 4 million a year.
The dude slugged .395 in the NL a year ago. You really think he’s going to do BETTER than that in a similar park in the AL, Billy?
Ms Fan said
JAC
have you heard of any inside info though?? There has to be more trades.
Adam said
Lopez as a SS? LOL!
Iain said
Word up, Brother.
As soon as I find yr Chasm of Mindless Optimism, I’ll be the first one jumping.
But before I do – why exactly does the fact that we have minor leaguers who might, theoretically, be able to play second base someday mean that we should trade a good, cheap hitter and reliever for an aging, powerless, overpaid vet who’ll be used as.. a DH?
I eagerly await your response.
Edman said
Have to agree with Garciaparra. I was ready to write him off, and it seems like he’s finally figuring out how to play. He had a good year at AAA, and had a more than respectible showing in the AFL. Is he star quality? Not at the moment, but he is at least playing well enough to not ignore him. And, he does something NEITHER Lopez or Betancourt do……can take a walk.
I’ve seen Chen play, and he’s got talent too. He can play multiple positions, well. He can hit. He runs well. All-Star?…..Probably not, but he could be all that Bloomquist isn’t.
Gookie said
This just dont make sense man, what is the issue with givin lopez time to improve. he is still fairly young and he has been able to prove himself as a top of the lineup hitter. albeit with not a lot of power, isnt that gonna show its head within the next year or two?
bavasi is worse at makinga trade then woody woodpecker was at it.
Edman said
LOL….indeed, Adam. Yes, Lopez CAN play shortstop. If Carlos Guillen can hold down the position, so can Lopez. I’ve seen him play it, and KNOW he can. Defensive star?…..No. But, he won’t be embarrassing, either.
Knuckles said
Seriously, Edman. Do you honestly think we’d get anything NEAR what Lopez is worth in trade? Bavasi simply hasn’t shown himself to be capable of that. He has yet to make one trade in his entire tenure with the M’s where we don’t come out on the short end of the stick. But that isn’t really the point here. Vidro can’t play 2B every day. Vidro doesn’t apparently threaten Lopez. He’s now our full time DH. Our $12 million per season DH. Speaking of younger and cheaper (and assloads better), the M’s could have gone with Snelling. But no, he’s not a “proven veteran”. We’ve managed to turn Benuardo into a more expensive, less durable version (although now he’s only one guy, so think of how much the M’s will save in health care!).
Ms Fan said
well iain, let me fill in the blanks for you, because obiviously you are too stupid to fill them in yourself. We trade away lopez for pitching. We can alot for him because he is cheap and was an all-star. Who knows if he can repeat that year or if it was a fluke, but i do know that he sucked the second half of the season last year. I believe that the second half lopez if pretty much what you will get from now on. We take on vidro for 2 years. No power but he does hit .280-.300. That could be a solid number 2 for our lineup. In a couple of years we insert one of our stud minor-leaguer infeilders. We can prob. get a freaking good pitcher for lopez, and vidro will be like a band-aid until someone is ready for the job. Duh.
Edman said
Gookie, if Lopez was traded, it would have nothing to do with his ability. If anything, it would because of that ability. What it would be about, is getting something you need worse, hopefully at a decent price and under Mariner control for a while.
For instance, if you were able to move him to Tampa Bay for Kasmir, wouldn’t you do that?
If you could trade him to Detroit for Bonderman, wouldn’t you do that?
Nobody’s saying he’ll be traded. But, if he is, he better bring back a young pitcher with talent, who’ll grow with Felix.
Ms Fan said
knuckles,
actually vidro is costing us 12 mil over 2 seasons. Not 12 mil per season. Get your facts straight.
Jason A. Churchill said
Ms Fan… cool it, pal. And anyone else calling people names, fucking stop it. I’m not asking you, i’m TELLING you, fucking stop it now!
I have a question… why are we talking about Lopez playing shortstop? He’s not a big league SS and he never will be, at least not in Seattle. YuBet is not going down for anything and he’s not getting traded.
Ms Fan said
Sorry JAC, it will not happen again. Im just getting a little heated, and it seemed like everyone was attacking edman. I lost my cool.
Iain said
Gosh damn it, I was going to let it go, but that last post was too much, Ms Fan.
So we trade Lopez and get pitching, I get that much. But now let’s think about a few things, shall we?
1. There were better 2b available than Vidro on the free agent market. Loretta. Giles. Whomever. They would be CHEAPER (since Vidro gets 12 mil over the next two years), and, in all likelihood, just as good.
2. According to Vidro and the Mariners website (check out the seattletimes link, for starters), he’s playing DH. NOT SECOND BASE.
3. Regarding DH, snelling is ALREADY BETTER, AND FIVE MILLION CHEAPER.
4. Playing the “who’s a better DH than Jose Vidro” game: Ben Broussard. Raul Ibanez (since you could have snelling and guillen in the OF). Your mom. etc.
4. We threw in a good reliever as well, just for kicks.
Can you see why I’m kinda confused by this move now, big guy?
Salty Dog said
#168:
OK, but how about a possible boost in his numbers based on not being in the field?
The guy still has a great batter’s eye. If he gets his body healthy and keeps it that way, I really think his bat could surprise.
Just one man’s opinion, but I think if you read the Seattle Times blurb, that’s exactly what they’re selling Vidro on. Get off your feet, get healthy, and start raking again.
Edman said
What has Snelling done to prove he’s ANYTHING projectable? There is nobody I’ve wanted to succeed more than him. But, he can’t be relied on….period. He’s all promise. If you can wait for him, then you should be equally willing to have tolerated Meche…..because he had lots of promise as well.
At some point, you have to cut the ties. I hope Snelling has a terrific career, but I also think a change of scenery is the best thing for him, and he’ll be on a team that won’t have a ton of expectations.
Fruto would have been obsoleted quickly as a reliever. There are younger, better prospects that are less than a year away. Relievers are a dime a dozen.
Knuckles said
Hmm. Duh is right. Vidro can’t run, hits for no power, and you want him at number two. He’s an ass-end of the order hitter at best. Lopez “sucked” for three months last season, so that means he’s washed up. I hate to break it to you dumbass, but Lopez IS one of our stud infielders.
Lopez pre-All Star Game: .280/.316/.454
Lopez post-All Star Game: .285/.322/.336
Lost some power, still got on base about a third of the time and actually hit a wee bit better. Yeah, that kid sucked ASS for the last half of the season.
Allow me to bitchslap you upside the head with a huge ass reality summer sausage: The Mariners will NOT get a topline pitcher for Lopez. Not even a “freaking good pitcher” for Lopez. Bavasi gives away more than he gets. Period. That’s all he apparently knows how to do. He’s also dealing from a position of fear right now, as his job is on the line. I just hope he doesn’t follow your advice. This offseason has been misery filled as it is.
Jason A. Churchill said
If Vidro was making 1 mil, you can justify the 32-year-old as being a better bet to perform daily than Snelling.
But… he’s going to be paid 6 mil per year by Seattle and even if he hits the ball well, he’s not a run producer in any manner.
There’s no way to spin the deal to make it sound positive. Losing Snelling isnt that huge of a deal, it sucks and isnt GOOD, but he wasnt going to post a .900 OPS or anything anytime in the next 15 years.
Fruto is no loss at all, really, relief arms grow on trees ans the M’s didn’t NEED him. But to get so little for the two of these kids and pay out 12 mil over two years for it… well, it’s sad.
The Mariners deserve better, the fans deserve better and to be honest, Snelling deserves better than to go to Washington.
Lamda said
that quote on Rotoworld is right – unless this is part of a trade to bigger/better things – BB needs to be fired before he ran-sacks our farm system for crappy players. Can we next send Jones/Clement for Pavano or some other sorry pitcher?
TheMsfan said
just so i dont get in trouble, this is the good themsfan, so dont think its me jason, haha….
my opinion on the trade is meh, ive always been a snelling fan but i dont think hes going to be lenny dykstra as many think he is…tremendous guy, just a solid ball player to me
do i think its a great trade? no, but do i think we could do worse, we already did, we traded soriano for horacio ramirez.
Gookie said
bavasi is pretty dumb at trading for a prospect, whereas,
woody had a pretty good idea of the talent he got back as being potential superstars.
is that a good assessment of the two?
3rd Watch said
This move is very confusing. You would figure that a GM would make the blockbuster trade and then fill in the void afterward. This trade almost seems backwards. It also has the likelyhood to blow up and backfire if you cannot get that starting pitcher secured.
Does anyone think that Beane likes Lopez for one of his pitchers?
Ms Fan said
Iain,
Totally see where you are coming from, and get it. But I can see why they traded for a 2nd baseman. I agree that we could have gotten a giles maybe for cheaper and would not have had to get rid of anyone. He would be a better 2nd baseman too. But i can see what might be happening. Im not totally for trading lopez away, but if it gets us GOOD pitching, im all for it. Plus we have someone who can put up a decent AVG. By itself, the trade makes no sense. but i think it is part of something bigger, that could help the team in the future.
Edman said
Salty, I was thinking the same thing. He kind of reminds me of a thirdbaseman who we use to have. He was a doubles machine, but his knees wouldn’t let him field anymore. So, he dedicated himself to being a hitter. Once he did because a DH, he became so good they named an award after him.
Will he be another Edgar?…..Not a chance, but he could be a better hitter, once he’s not stressing his knees everyday.
Besides, wouldn’t it be better to have a DH that can play some infield….rather than just firstbase?
Ms Fan said
WOW nuckles, you really read JAC post, 179. Anyways, HAHA, you said lopez lost some power after the all star break?? From july 1 and on he hit 1 HR and only had 22 RBI’s!! Dang, if that is a small drop off from what he had, he must suck all together. Yep you really showed me, good one. You are right we wouldn’t get crap in a trade for lopez, he was only an all-star that makes $335,000. Yep, man oh please stop, you are embarassing me!
nad said
Ms Fan,
I really hope you’re right, but with the way the offseason has gone the odds of us pulling off a good trade are about 0.
Ms Fan said
Since when do we hate adding .300 hitters???
nad said
When they cost more than the .300 hitter we traded to get them
Ms Fan said
Nad,
For all of our sake, I hope I’m right too. Oh man, do I ever.
Edman said
I do remember all the nay-sayers in regard to signing Ibanez. Luckily, none of us are always right.
Willmore said
In other news, Theo Epstein spanked Boras in the Matsuzaka negotiations. 6 years, 52 million. Boras didn’t get his 3 years, he didn’t get his 12+ mil per year. Theo got a pitcher in his prime for 6 years, admittedly at a high cost, but they can afford it.
Ms Fan said
I’m not saying I like what we gave up, it was essentially Snelling for Vidro. The trade was able to give us some breathing room to make maybe a big trade. Snelling could be awesome, or he could be one injury from never playing again. How long do we have to wait. The kid made his first appearance in 2002 and has only played in 59 games with 152 AB’s. But he could be amazing, but how long do we have to wait and cross our fingers every season that he does not get hurt. But I really liked snelling, and was excited to see what he was going to bring to the table this year. But it is not going to happen.
Adam said
Why acquire a 32 year-old DH for 18-20 million over the next three years? And then throw away a hitter who can hit just as well, if not better, play the OF, and makes 5% of what the old DH makes?
Broussard, Snelling, Ibanez; all could have done just as well as Vidro at DH, and not have cost the M’s ANYTHING.
That is why this is such an idiotic move. We’ve given up two young players for no added value to the team.
Justify that…
Salty Dog said
#190: I’ve already noticed the Edgar/Vidro parallels.
Edgar had a superior K:BB ratio, but I really think the comparison is apt, even physically (both 5’11” and stocky).
I think folks are discounting the possibility that Vidro returns to his .300/.400/.500 form when his body can heal up and stay healthy. It’s also possible he stays at his mediocre 2005-2006 level, but I don’t see how the possible upside can be totally discounted.
Ms Fan said
I will justify that. Im not justifying anything, Im just trying to open up the possibilties that the M’s are not done. The M’s are paying vidro 12 over the next two seasons. That is 6 million a year. they have an OPTION for a third year, if they choose to use it, or they could buy it ou for $500,000. So I don’t have any clue where 18-20 million came from? You are still assuming that he will be our DH. I don’t think he will be. But if he is, it will be a platoon with him and Broussard. Now it is not the best DH in the world, especially considering it will cost 10.5 million (4.5 for broussard and 6 for vidro). But you could platoon broussard and snelling, both have LHB’s. Snelling is NO and was NO guarrantee for anything. He could get hurt tying his shoe laces and never play again. If you look up injury-prone in the dictionary, you will see Chris Snelling. I’m not saying this was the best option, but it happened so deal with it.
Ms Fan said
Since 1999, Vidro’s BA
1999-.304
2000-.330
2001-.319
2002-.315
2003-.310
2004-.294
2005-.274
2006-.289 vs L-.323 vs R-.276
I dunno, maybe I’m old fashioned, but those avgs look pretty good to me. I kind of like his avg. vs LHP.
Broussard hit .289 last year.
vs L-.177 vs R.308
Put those two together you have someone that will hit for average and when Broussard is up to the plate, someone with some pop.
I understand some of you. You complain that Sexson does not hit for average, and only hits HR’s and now you complain that we will have a DH that will hit for great avg, and not too many maybe around 20. Will anything ever be good enough??
JohnnyBeisbol said
I still find it comical that somebody said Lopez is expendable due to our minor league middle infielders… Chen and Garciaparra dont have anywhere near the talent Jose does.. If they are the future at 2B for us.. i dont wanna be around on ths ship to see it..
Salty Dog said
#202: And that, in a nutshell, is why Vidro is the perfect DH for Hargrove. It should be noted that Snelling would be, too, except he’s not a veteran.
I have no confidence that Mike Hargrove will deploy any player correctly, unless that player’s correct deployment is “playing all the time”.
Guys like Guillen and Vidro who don’t have a severe platoon split are perfect for Hargrove. They require no intelligent management to deploy.
And they’re veterans, so he will actually play them.
Knuckles said
Well, M’s fan, let’s play your silly game. Pre all star break he had 350 ABs, post all star break he had 253. So, for the sake of my feeble math skills, I’m going to call it an even 100 AB less after the AS break.
Pre-All Star: 48 runs, 98 hits, 20 2B, 7 3B, 9 HR and 14 BB. Pretty good for a kid in his first full season in the majors.
Post-All Star: 30 runs, 72 hits, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR and 12 BB. Still, not too shabby for a kid in his first full season in the majors.
I see a kid who had a league catch up to him. One would hope they’d actually do that, seeing as how it’s supposed to be the best baseball league in the world.
Again, if you want to trade a 20 year old kid who can put up those kind of numbers, I’m very glad you’re not the GM. There are few people in the world who could do a worse job than Bavasi is right now, and it appears you would be one of them. I don’t need to embarass you, you’re doing just fine all by yourself.
Adam said
MsFan – notice how those averages are trending down?
Edman said
Adam….notice how the NL doesn’t have a DH, thus forcing Vidro to stress his knees in the field?
Not everything is black and white. There is some gray.
StandinPat said
True, you never stress your knees as a DH, or ae required to hit for any kind of power, so I guess Vidro fills that roll perfectly.
cujo said
Edmon if you havent noticed look at his pictures he being vidro went from being a small 2ndbaseman to a swollen one and now is getting small again ..sounds alot like are old secondbaseman .When he hit the wall he fell off it!
3rd Watch said
We better get Vidro a walker for the dugout if this is the case. Does anyone know somebody in prothstetics? I want to remove all of the pressure from his knees. We all know what life can be like watching a DH run down the first base line and suddenly “pop” he’s on the DL for a period of time. Seen it with Edgar and Snelling. To be truthful I’d like to see Vidro focus a little more on his body. It is looking a little sloppy and in his questioned good years he had some upper body bulk. Similar to Boonie. Is anyone seeing the similar attributes without coming out and saying it?
drrrew said
Couldn’t we have simply asked the Braves to throw in Marcus Giles in the Soriano deal? I can’t imagine they’d have said no considering what they’ve done with him since. Isn’t he essentially the same player as Vidro at this point. Their numbers are nearly identical. Here’s the last three years for both.
Vidro
289 .348 .395
275 .339 .424
294 .367 .454
Giles
262 .341 .387
291 .365 .461
311 .378 .443
Adam said
The point is that Snelling and Vidro are virtually the same player (and that might be kind to Vidro). Snelling makes about 5% of what Vidro makes, so the deal makes just NO sense.
Think of it this way:
We agreed to give up Snelling and Fruto, and we agreed to take on at least 12 million in payroll for a DH who is no better than three guys on the roster who could DH: Snelling, Broussard, and Ibanez.
And even if Vidro is a bit better than those three (which I would take issue with), is he so much better so as to justify giving up Snelling and Fruto?
I don’t see how one can spin this as a good trade. It’s ten times worse than the Soriano/Ramirez deal.
Salty Dog said
#213: You’re right (Snelling=Vidro, roughly), but you have to account for Hargrove’s veteran preferance. He’s far more likely to play Vidro every day at DH than to play Snelling every day at DH. If you presume HArgrove would have let Snelling ride the pine, then you can’t equate the two players in terms of their hypothetical production for the Mariners, under Hargrove, in 2007. One would play and one wouldn’t.
No sane person would say that’s a good thing, but it’s the current state of the team. Bill Bavasi has to work within those constraints, absurd as they may be.
I’d say your quarrel is really with Hargrove’s stupid preferance for veterans and with the front office’s “keep the fannies in the seats” attitude. Bavasi, IMHO, is doing the best he can to win in 2007 under these constraints. If he’s giving up young talent to get veterans, it’s because he knows full well Hargrove doesn’t want to play that young talent in 2007.
Re: Broussard – He didn’t fare well in Safeco last year. Watching him at the plate, he looked kinda lost. I don’t get a good vibe in terms of his hypothetical production as a Mariner going forward.
IMHO, Vidro at DH is better than Broussard at DH and equivalent to Snelling at DH.
DKulich44 said
214. The problem with that logic is there is no situation that should call for a GM to build the team around a manager… if that’s the case, obviously the manager should be gone, which has been overstated. It’s a stupid move when you can dump the manager, save 12 mil, and get the same production out of a player from inside the system. Unless this deal nets us a real top of the rotation starter, I’m really going to have a hard time watching this season.
The one good thing is Snelling will be in my home town of Philadelphia 9 times next year, and you know I’m going to be the biggest supporter in the house. Good luck Chris
jp17 said
215-
It certainly doesn’t make sense for Bavasi having to build around his manager, but it does seem the reality for this franchise. When the FO (Lincoln or Armstrong or whoever) sent out the end of season letter, it stated that THEY were retaining both Bavasi and Hargrove. Tells me that Bavasi isn’t being given the overall authority to make a managerial change. It certainly seems plausible. Building off of that, it was stated that Bavasi is on the hot seat, and we know that Hargrove will be the manager whether Bavasi likes it or not. Some in the past have said that there is a need to build a Hargrove-proof roster. This could be an attempt to do just that.
I can’t believe that this trade stands on its own without further deals being explored, and so at the time it seems awfully strage. Wait and see I guess.
JAC
Could an earlier rumor be tweaked a bit in these new circumstances?
Sexson to SF
Lopez to ATL
Benetiz(or whatever relievers) to ATL, heck throw in Mateo
LaRoche and Hudson to SEA
Throw in players where needed.
Is that something that could work, or have some of those holes (1B for SF, 2B for ATL) been already filled with prospects or signings?
jp17 said
Sorry for two posts….or possibly nix Lopez and Hudson from the scenarios, take the cash and try for Zito.
DIQ said
kill me now.
bill bavasi has shitted all over my holidays.
PositivePaul said
Uh. Tim Hudson is not going anywhere. The Braves kept him and ridded themselves of Giles precisely to save some money needed to keep Huddy around. Only way he was going to be traded anyway, from what was out there, was if Tom Glavine signed with ATL.
jp17 said
Oh, they want Hudson? I thought they were trying to get rid of him any way possible, and thought that they possibly wanted to free up money to possibly retain Andruw Jones.
I’d rather go with the scenario that involves us keeping Lopez and staying away from Hudson as I’m not much of a fan of his….just seemed like a Mariner type target.
So does Sexson to SF, Benetiz to ATL, LaRoche (or their other LH 1B prospect) to SEA, guys like Chen or Little G to ATL make any sort of sense….I’m just grasping for ways to brighten my day.
MtGrizzly said
I am only going to say this once and it pains me to do so but…
Revolution/Logan was right. Bavasi really is that bad.
Knuckles said
Shat. Bavasi has shat all over your holiday. He must have had pea soup or something, because he’s shat all over mine as well.
the Iceman Cometh said
Jason– Have you heard anything about the Broussard for Coffey rumor?
Jason A. Churchill said
Im not following the winter moves of the M’s for the rest of the offseason. I have not called a soul or emailed a single source since the Soriano deal.
Jason A. Churchill said
re – 221
Yes, but that idiot revolution based it on what transpired prior to 2006, and did NOT take into consideration the obstacles any GM in Seattle has to deal with.
So, he was WRONG.
Nobody, least of all me, said Bavasi was good. Just that he deserved a sorta mulligan up to that point.
But he’s screwed himself now.
Slackman said
yeah, You don’t need to follow any more Mariners off season news, Jason. It’s Christmas and we don’t need to be any more depressed. We can get back to prospectdom and maybe get some hope for the future. I hope the M’s draft really well in the next couple of years. If I had it may way, I would dismantle the whole thing and rebuild but that’s just me. No one has to agree with that. I’m not the GM. I just hope this Batista signing doesn’t cause that much financial damage.
Jason A. Churchill said
I’m ready for a new front office. 100%. And if it means no Fontaine, that sucks, bad, but what Fontaine is doing isnt helping much because the guy responsible for the big club isnt doing his job.
Can we FFWD to 2009 already, please? I see a new CEO or team president, or both, and I think the new guy will have a very familiar name to this town.
Alex said
Bob Whitsitt?
Jerry said
Jason,
I was also wondering who you think the new CEO/Pres will be.
I just hope that they can bring in a new GM who is not a dumbass, and have the wisdom to let that guy do what is necessary to right this ship.
Bavasi just put us back a few years. The M’s are going to have to essentially waste an offseason ditching contracts (Batista, Vidro, Sexson, Washburn). That is going to take some time. Hopefully, those guys have solid seasons next year, and the M’s can actually move them for value instead of just salary dumps. Guillen could be a good trade chip as well. If Clement has a big season, Johjima is a possibility as well.
I am hoping that the M’s tank this year. I hate to say that before the season has even started, but the M’s have a last place team right now. Ideally, the Angels or A’s go crazy, and the M’s fall back quick enough to force changes mid-season.
I would love to see the M’s start this rebuild mis-season. That way, they could actually be an interesting club in 2008.
Slackman said
Jason,
Maybe you could be the new GM! Ha!ha!
Edman said
Sounds more like Beattie, to me.
gwangung said
Plausible guess. And might be OK, if they’re hiring on the basis of skills, and not on name recognition.
T Shot said
Who ever the new front office is , lets hope they have a solid plan and stick to it.Lets also hope that they have the authority to go along with the responsibility of the position. We are becoming the new Cleveland …no titles since 1979….
Jerry said
“We are becoming the new Cleveland …no titles since 1979….”
I hope you are correct,
Cleveland is the best run franchise in baseball.
RollngWave said
New Cleveland would actually be decent the Indians were dominent in their division for most of the late 90s, it’s becomming more like the new Kansas City/ Pittusburgh . they had more recent titles, but has been run into the ground and probably won’t smell playoffs in half a decade or so. that’s more likely where the M’s are headed. forget about titles, how about actually getting close to the playoffs first?
Jerry said
Rolling Wave,
Are you suggesting that the Indians are not a good team?
If so, you don’t know what you are talking about.
The Indians have one of the best young clubs in baseball. Many people are picking them as a playoff force, despite the fact that they play in the toughest division in baseball.
The Indians have a great core of players like Grady Sizemore (the most underrated player in MLB), Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, CC Sabathia, Jeremy Sowers, Jhonny Peralta, Cliff Lee, David Dellucci and Jake Westbrook. They also have some real good prospects who will help them soon in Jeremy Sowers, Andy Marte, and Adam Miller.
The Indians will be really good in 2007, and they are situated to be a force for a long time.
The Indians are a great example of what the M’s NEED to do: smart rebuilding.
I hope that you are right when you say that the M’s are in danger of becoming the new Cleveland. That would be awesome.
T Shot said
I live in NE Ohio,see almost every game and agree the Indians are a well run franchise….what I was refering to was the overall sports scene. The last Championship in Cleveland was the 64 Browns…Seattles last championship was the Sonics …
Didn’r mean to set you off…
Roberto said
According to ESPN, the Vidro trade hit a snag when there were problems with the physical. This is the only good news for the mariners this week. With the trade, the Mariners went from having one strength to a weakness. The bullpen was the best part of the team, other than the defense, but now it doesn’t have that many good arms. It begs the question whether the bullpen will even be good at the start of the season.
etowncoug said
For all the doom and gloom about the bullpen I am confident that the M’s will have a decent pen next year.
Edman said
I think folks are just hoping in regard to Vidro. Last I read, Vidro won’t even be in town until Monday to take his physical…..so it might bet pretty hard to fail it.
Edman said
Actually, after some thought, I’m not too opposed to the Vidro trade. I don’t understand the thinking that a DH MUST be a power hitter. I think we all got spoiled having the best DH to have played the game, so far, in it’s short history.
I like this deal, because Vidro will fit in right behind Ichiro. I know some think you need to be speedy, but that’s just not true. You need to be a good contact hitter to allow Ichiro to run more. Lopez did OK, but I think he needs to be in another spot in the order, where he can use his power.
A switch to DH is the perfect thing for Vidro. Not having to field everyday will allow his legs to stay fresh, and should return some of his power. I don’t expect him to hit 25 HR, but I think it’s reasonable for him to hit around 16. Hopefully, he’ll return to the doubles hitter he use to be.
I wouldn’t say this is a huge deal, but it brings a type of hitter that the M’s don’t have many of. Betancourt is probably the closest, but he doesn’t make enough good contact and certainly doesn’t take a walk. $6 million a year is a little steep, if he doesn’t regain his power. But, if he can hit .300 with 35+ doubles and 15 HR, that’s well worth the money.
I know some of you will be forever go on believing Chris Snelling is destine to be a great player, and, I certainly hope he is…..he’s always been a favorite. But there is one major difference between the two…..Vidro has proven he can hit…..Snelling is still trying. I do find it funny that some lash out at Vidro while going on about Snelling as a hitter. Fact is, other than switch-hitting, they are very much the same type of hitter….fundimentally. Snelling walks more…..Vidro strikes out less. But, both are gap type hitters.
I know I’ll be bashed senselessly by all the Doyle fans….but, that’s the way it goes.
JH said
Is it really that easy for you to ignore the dozens of post-30 “proven veterans” who collapse every single year, Edman?
Age negatively effects performance. It’s not a question of if, it’s a question of when. A huge part of minimizing risks and maximizing reward consists of having as few old players who were barely above average in their prime taking up a large percentage of your payroll.
Vidro is high risk, low reward. Snelling was high risk, medium-to-high reward. It’s a textbook example of horrible roster construction born out of desperation.
JH said
RE: Edman’s post #191 (came late to this thread)
.343/.404/.544
.285/.387/.482
Those are Edgar Martinez’s 2 full seasons (1 strike-shortened) before 1995, his first year playing a majority of games at DH. There’s a big difference between someone who’s often-injured but hits when he does stay healthy and someone who’s often injured AND is watching his production decline. Edgar Martinez had a track record of being one of the best hitters in baseball before he became a DH, and more importantly, his offense showed NO SIGNS of declining.
Might Vidro improve a little bit from his current .290/.350/.400 level of production? Sure. His upside is definitely higher than his 2006 statline, and the DH job just might help him improve as you suggest. Also, maybe it won’t. Nobody knows.
Now:
2006’s league average offensive line in the AL: .275/.339/.437.
That’s league average, not average production for a DH. At the easiest position to find a bigtime power bat, where freely available talent is widely available and at a position where every year, someone some team nabbed for essentially nothing comes out of nowhere to give solid league-average production, we’ll be playing someone whose best case scenario involves him rediscovering his power stroke and beating the odds to become league average at his position.
On the other hand, his downside, much like any other fragile 32-year-old hitter with declining production who hasn’t played a full season in 4 years, is total career collapse.
Every good player in the history of baseball eventually becomes a bad player. With the exception of about 5-6 players a generation, this transformation happens at some point in the player’s 30s.
Are you REALLY that fond of moves where the upside is mediocrity and the downside is absolute, utter uselessness? Because those are the only deals you ever really seem to get behind on this board.
Jerry said
Edman,
Are you seriously arguing that the Vidro trade was GOOD!?!
Come on! I would expect even you to recognize that this was the worst trade of the offseason. By far.
The M’s traded two good young, cheap players for one guy who has negative value.
Bavasi fucked up the M’s this offseason. He put them back at least one year in their rebuilding. Some new GM now has more bad contracts to move after this offseason.
Bavasi got scared, and made stupid, horrible, idiotic moves out of desperation. If he had just been patient and not freaked out, he could potentially be finding equal value for the guys he wants to move. The Braves are still looking for more relievers, and are likely to trade Andy LaRoche (the guy we should have gotten in the Atlanta deal) for Mike Gonzalez (whose value is no higher than Sorianos).
Instead, we traded three good, cheap players for two guys who are not even league average. And we picked up $12 million in untradable payroll for that.
If you are actually arguing that these are good moves, you are even less intelligent than most people here thought.
StandinPat said
Any argument for this trade is absolutely ridiculous. Snelling has def shown he has the ability to match Vidro’s potential 07 line, plus he’s 7 years younger and over 11 million dollars cheaper over the next two years. Vidro’s performance would have to way surpass anything Snelling could potentially give you to make this worthwhile. And anything you want to say about Snelling’s health, you have to same the same about Vidro, so its not like we cleared that up. To say that placing Vidro at DH will allow him to stay healthier and possibly regain some of his power, but then turn around and in the same breathe knock Snelling for being injury prone is moronic and short sighted.
cujo said
What is the mad professors next trade?Anyone that can figure it out should be running IBM!
YouKnowWho said
I think Bill’s next trade involves a prospect that most here don’t want to trade and brings back a bench player.
marc w. said
247 and 246:
Bavasi trade odds
Clement for Jay Witasick — 3:1
Adam Jones + Chen + Bazardo for Kris Benson —2:1
LaHair + Chick for Tony Clark — 5:1
Jones + Tillman for Bartolo Colon — Even
Butler + Rob Johnson for Josh Fogg — 5:1
Lopez + Sherrill for Jeff Kent (to DH) — 4:1
Jason A. Churchill said
I’m gonna go with Ichiro, Tui and Stephen Kahn for Pat Burrell.
Knuckles said
Edman: It’s never senseless to bash you. It’s sort of required. This wasn’t a good trade. Period. It was a trade borne of desperation and a massive overdependence on veteran ballplayers. At least when he signed Carl Everett, all they lost was money. Now they’ve lost money, AND two good players.
Ralph said
The next trade will be Ryan Feierabend, Michael Wilson and Jose Lopez for Craig Biggio. That will also open up 2007 roster spots for two of this year’s projected NRI’s, Shawn Wooten and Scott Schoeneweis.
Ralph said
I also have it on good authority that Ben Weber, Jose Nieves, Alex Ochoa, Jorge Fabregas, and Brad “Lefty Sock” Fullmer will also be 2007 NRI’s.
marc w. said
I love your scenario, Ralph, because you’d have quite a few M’s fans supporting it (‘he’s an ALL-STAR; 20+ HRs, guaranteed! Veteran leadership!’), but I’m actually sort of terrified by JAC’s suggestion.
Jason, could you delete that before someone in the FA gets a bright idea? If Burrell had ties to the Angels org, it’d be done by now.
Adam said
Trade Ichiro. Now.
Baseballistic said
If the M’s are serious about going into rebuilding mode and are certain that Ichiro won’t sign a long-term extension, I think they should trade him. The fact that Ichiro is 33 and his skills will soon decline makes moving him now seem like the smartest way to go — even though most M’s fans would probably hate the move.
There’s no shortage of teams that could use Ichiro, and if I were Bavasi, I’d pull the trigger on a deal that nets the M’s a couple of blue-chippers for him.
bilbo said
wait til the trade deadline and if he hasn’t signed an extension by then, move him for all you can get.
Jason A. Churchill said
I won’t go as far to say the Mariners will never trade Ichiro, because I know better. But he won’t be traded unless it’s something he wants, and then he’ll surely be in a position to pick the team in which he’s dealt.
Dave Cairns said
Jason
This is the MLB version of the Bobby Livingston waiver deal.
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061214&content_id=1761344&vkey=hotstove2006&fext=.jsp
As you can imagine I am not impressed with the Snelling trade, from an Australian perspective.
Jason A. Churchill said
Yeah, they don’t explain why in that piece, but it’s got something to do with the fact that it’s against league rules to claim a guy just to trade him, which is clearly what happened.
ericthemariner said
Sorry to change subjects but when is your mariner top 50 prospect list coming out?
Jason A. Churchill said
ASAP, Eric. I was without power until last night, so things got pushed back. I wanted the 41-50 group to be out TODAY, but that looks more like Saturday or Sunday now, with 31-40 on Tuesday.
21-30 is slated for next Wednesday and 16-20 on Friday the 29th.
Nos 21-50 will be not be ranked in any order, instead being grouped due to the tough nature of grading the raw talents appropriately, and will be finished off by what I can scorunge up on Mario Martinez, Kallian Sams and Carlos Truinfel, who will not be included in the top 20 until they’ve played ball in the states, but certainly deserve some mention.